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The Fed's 30 Minute Agency Monetization Window

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Much has been said on Zero Hedge about the Fed's monetization of Treasuries, usually via the NY Fed's POMO activities, which on occasion buys back Treasuries as promptly as 5 days after any one given auction. Yet we were dumbfounded by this piece of information, presented to us by Jim Bianco, which demonstrates that the Fed's monetization of Agencies is far more blatant than anything even encountred in Treasuries.

Below is the 10:00 am announcement of a new $5 billion auction of 2 Year Fannie Agencies:

A mere half hour later, the NY Fed announced that as part of tomorrow's "Outright Agency Coupon Purchase" precisely this CUSIP would be one of the securities repurchased:

These shell games are getting tiresome. A half an hour turnaround time between issuance and buyback? Really Ben?

As Jim Bianco comments, some answers are far overdue, when trying to explain this most blatant example of monetization to date.

1. Who bought these securities at auction? The potential for foul play here is high if the news of such a buyback accidentally leaked to a few individuals in the market

2. Who does the Federal Reserve think it is fooling by monetizing in such a roundabout way?

Perhaps it is time for another probing interview by administration darling Steve Liesman of Tim Geithner. Hopefully this time he won't lie as blatantly as he did last time when he claimed: "The Fed is absolutely not monetizing debt" (9 mins, 9 seconds into the clip)

 

 

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Thu, 10/08/2009 - 16:46 | 93414 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

They're just replacing lost tokens, it's ok.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 16:50 | 93422 MikeNYC
MikeNYC's picture

Sometimes the tokens fall out of the ring onto the floor, and you have to crawl under the desk to find them.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 23:43 | 93797 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya those tokens were value neutral at IPO. ALL ipo's are at 0 dollars these days.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 16:48 | 93418 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

He's lying to us for our own good. Get with the program.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:11 | 93453 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Unfortunately, this program is in syndication.

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:12 | 93455 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

He must really love us.

However a 30 minute turnaround on $5B is amazing.... I can't even get pizza delivered that quickly. These guys should run the post office.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:11 | 93596 Bear
Bear's picture

 

ZeroHead, I think you stumbled on a great idea. Take the CUSIP's 5B and give it to the Post Office. They wouldn't have to close offices, many jobs saved, instant shot in arm to local economies and all the time Obama could take credit for the jobs that his actions saved. Much better than Fed 'returning' it to BAC, C, WF and GS. Oh ... I guess 5B is already gone

 

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 06:01 | 93910 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yes, the $5 B is gone. But that's OK. Just like Lay's potato chips, go ahead and spend it, they'll just make more.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:20 | 93470 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thank god he is protecting us from ourslves

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 23:54 | 93798 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Translation. We're furisiously trying to get the IMF off the ground and get enough payday loans out to the poor countries to keep this running.

IMF Member Country            Govenor            Altnernative Governor   

United states                Timothy Geitner                Ben Bernanke          

By the time we get this enron thing off the ground. We'll be causing brownouts at every elecrtical grid on the planet beause we have some complex derivitave investment in a block of electricity that allows us to pull the plug and "negotiate" through blackmail.

 

                           
Thu, 10/08/2009 - 16:55 | 93426 Don Smith
Don Smith's picture

How does one short the dollar in reality?  Seriously.  How does the average person effect a carry trade, like USD/AUD? Anyone?

What kind of account do I need to open and with whom?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:17 | 93460 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You want to short the dollar eh?

Collapsing currency?

Buy gold then (its the inverse to USD).

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:34 | 93491 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Better yet, max out every line of credit possible and use the proceeds to gold.  Dollar carry trade baby!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:40 | 93498 Steak
Steak's picture

+ 1000  For those who truly have nothing to lose I can't imagine a better way to protect oneself and stick it to the banksters at the same time.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:58 | 93526 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

That's the play, but don't be too obvious about it.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:12 | 93545 pinkboxtrader
pinkboxtrader's picture

a little birdie told me that if you're going to do this start withdrawing the cash from the cards in small increments and frequently. come up with a plausable story about hardship/addiction etc which matches up with your cash withdrawals. pay your first few minimum card payments and interest to make the record show you are trying but failing to manage your debt spiraling habits. no use of any credit within 6 months of filing for bankruptcy. also check your state specific laws to see what suprising things creditors may go after in your particular location and act accordingly.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:44 | 93570 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Then for the final piece of the puzzle, take a month off and go into rehab to validate the addiction you've been faking to explain the cash withdrawals.

Like chess, you must think the moves all the way to the end. :>) 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:19 | 93602 SV
SV's picture

Unfortunately, doing 30 day stint in "detox" may cost more than your asset's appreciation, not to mention it reminds me of this:

The key to faking out the parents is the clammy hands. It's a good non-specific symptom. I'm a big believer in it. A lot of people will tell you a good phoney fever is a deadlock, but you get a nervous mother, you could wind up in a doctor's office--that's worse than school. You fake a stomach cramp, and when you're bent over, moaning and wailing, you lick your palms. It's a little childish and stupid, but then so is high school.
Fri, 10/09/2009 - 08:45 | 93969 aldousd
aldousd's picture

Good point. I knew Ferris would come in handy again someday.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 09:56 | 94026 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why drugs? wouldn't sex addiction be even better...sorry Judge, I blew all the cash on hookers. Who couldn't have sympathy for that :)

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 23:56 | 93802 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Shorting just means selling.

You can't naked short something unless you get hedge fund privelages which allows you to use a central banks deposits like they were your own.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:18 | 93462 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Buy gold then.

Gold is the inverse of the USD.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:19 | 93464 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Buy gold then.

Gold is the inverse of the USD.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:04 | 93537 Herr Morgenholz
Herr Morgenholz's picture

So if I get you correctly, gold goes up when the dollar goes down? 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:00 | 93589 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Agreed, buy gold because the future for the USD looks Bleak.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 01:47 | 93860 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

That's true in inflation but not true in deflation panic. See Feb. 2009 for a USD and GOLD parallel run up. If the banks and credit crash, both will ZOOM

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 05:20 | 93903 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Other than RE and lux cars/items, prices seem to have hit bottom so deflation is done. Now that real items like food and energy are going up it is time for inflation. Like others have suggested, buy gold. If you really want to show the banksters your feelings and desire the revenge/pay-back route, many people are maxing out their credit cards and buying gold... then defaulting on their credit cards.

SMART MONEY
Smart money is using credit cards to buy gold, then don't pay them for a few months and the credit companies are easily settling for 50% or less of balance (if you choose to settle versus default). That means you get gold at 50% off!

NOTE: What you choose to do is your own business, am simple stating what others have been doing.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:23 | 93476 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look in your area for a dealer in bullion coins (use the yellow pages, google maps, whatever). Go there and buy physical gold bullion. I'd suggest 1oz Gold Eagles, Maple Leafs, or Krugerrands. Store it in a secure location that you control.

This will be a better hedge even if the "system" keeps "working" like it has. If things get really bad the system is likely to break down and a paper/electronic contract will probably be worthless.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:26 | 93481 jesus_quintana
jesus_quintana's picture

spread bet

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:03 | 93534 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

The "average person" does not effect a carry trade, because the average person cannot borrower at near zero.

But, if you currently hold dollars in a bank account that is earning zero, if you convert those dollars into, say, AUD, and put them into an instrument that earns a return, you are effectively performing the same trade.

In the past many here have posted ways in which a US resident can open bank accounts in foreign currencies.  Worth looking into.  Earning nothing in a bank account is for idiots (and dollar deflationists).

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:01 | 93593 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If an average stock buyer buys the FXA ETF maybe the derivative elves take care of the AUDUSD trades?

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 07:42 | 93930 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Open a forex account from a big broker like FXCM or someone else, or open a normal brokerage account (Scottrade) and buy a currency fund like FXE, which is equivalent to trading your dollars for Euros. The forex account will be a leveraged account (you will get destroyed if you are wrong or time incorrectly), the regular brokerage / ETF purchase is not leveraged and is safer to hold for long periods (but you make a lot less if you are right).

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 16:55 | 93430 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

And we wonder why the dollar is collapsing?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:00 | 93438 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

folks, this is how omo works...there is nothing sinister in it....

now for extra credit, let's look into benhole's cayman island accounts where he does the real dirty buying....

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:59 | 93528 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Yep, nailed it.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:02 | 93442 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There is a tactic that spying agencies use to follow(if there is an expert on that may be he can shed some light). Sometimes when they come to a new info,they let the other side know about their knowledge. Here may be the fed is trying to signal to the Chinese and others who hold debt that it is monetizing. For what purpose?1-Create more pressure on the dollar. Create more pressure on the Chinese to delink their currency from the dollar. Isn't that why the dollar keeps falling after all?I think the idea of purposely signaling to the world that the FED is monetizing needs further exploration by the experts at zh(overtly for a purpose).

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:02 | 93532 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I kinda thought that's what this website was.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 08:00 | 93940 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

you know you may have a point there

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:46 | 93572 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The old "I know that you know that I know that you know that I know that you know" scam.

Yeah, that's the ticket.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:04 | 93443 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Aaaaaand, keep your eyes on the t-bill....keep your eyes on the t-bill...TAADAA!!! IT'S GONE!!!!!!!!!!! Wait, nope, there it is...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:05 | 93444 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"These shell games are getting tiresome."

It's really not even a shell game. It's just flat out buying the agencies because no one who can't print money is willing to do it.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:10 | 93449 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Hey!!  Imagine what would happen if we KNEW what they were doing!!  Good thing the Fed keeps these things secret...

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:21 | 93471 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is a horrifyingly good point. If the picture is this bad from information that they don't even try to hide, what is hidden in their books? They don't own even an ounce of gold any more? Bernanke is an animatronic puppet of Soros and/or Vampire Squid? We owe our firstborns to martians? Must be something horrible.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:54 | 93518 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Thought provoking posts.

Quick correction: it is public fact that the Fed owns zero gold; it only owns claims to all the gold that the Treasury owns.

But yea if this is public knowledge then the secrets must be juicy.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:47 | 93575 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Maybe it would be a good idea to bring in outside auditors and check the books?

Just a thought.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 00:02 | 93806 Argos
Argos's picture

What's the old saying?  Possessing is 9/10 tenths of the law.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 07:58 | 93939 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

if soros had any say in the matter, it wouldn't be going down like this. unless he's pulling a Greenspan, which i wouldn't put past him.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:11 | 93451 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I am just glad Dodd wants to extend unemployment benefits - but only to those unemployed in states with >8.5% unemployment. So, more prudent states like Colorado - - -sorry, your unemployed people get no extensions. To Californians with more socialist type governments, your unemployed will be covered.
So it begins....the federal government playing favorites to certain states and drawing a magic line to divide (8.5%).
The war on the rich has been growing, and now its a war between rich and poor states. I am starting to believe the Russian prophecy that the US will be divided into several countries within a few years!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:04 | 93538 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Yup, we keep rewarding failure.  And then are surprised when we get more failure.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:59 | 93588 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Oh but I love my unemployment check coming from California. Do I feel guilty? Hell no. I've put my 20yrs in. Have never taken a dime from anybody and have only fed the Goldman meter, both through taxes and through investments. Do I feel guilty for taking my unemployment check? Hell no!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:11 | 93452 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

USA! USA! USA!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:11 | 93454 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

When does Ben make the connection that POMO=weak dollar/strong gold?

He already has. He must be worried stiff tonight. His whole plan is blowing up on the price of gold. The market will outplay him on this chessboard.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:23 | 93475 deadhead
deadhead's picture

The market will outplay him on this chessboard.

I would love to see an article by you on the evolution of this chess game.

I always read your stuff and enjoy your insights.  Thank you, Bruce.

Sat, 10/10/2009 - 20:22 | 95552 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

we are seeing it here everyday and what will the holy world do when we all tell them to go away or crash? bring all the men and women home but can pakistan protect there arsenal? I remember when the kurds felt betrayed when no one else cared. The UN made us stand down when we where 60 miles from bagdad in gulf 1. And then and there the UN building in new York should have been leveled to the ground. there is no utopia so really why should we care in stated "change doctrines" today anymore. The smart money conveys now "we china favor by our debt issues since they must build there modern civilazation" on the people debt money and policy's that made it happen. And what do i owe the government? well they point a gun at me if they decide they want more money from me. there is no solution when other people take what they do not deserve. innovation built the world and those willing to work for it. as for evolution? as compared to what? Evil does exist and I see it anywhere as i look at home or abroad. anom at work....
great article ty bruce

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:28 | 93485 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

He should be especially worried given that he can't stop buying agency MBS.

New issuance net of Fannie portfolio securitization is 1.22T YTD.  Fannie has another 93B in portfolio securitizations, so issuance has been 1.31T YTD (Fannie+Freddie).  Bernanke has bought 900B of MBS, 90% of that has been Fannie/Freddie.  So he has been buying about 70% of the market since he started in January.

No way he goes from 70% of the market to 0% of the market in six months.

This alone will kill the dollar, along with America's standard of living.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:54 | 93519 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ghost: I like your comments - have been reading them for a while.

Please explain how the Fed stopping MBS purchases kills the dollar.

Wouldn't it kill the MBS market first - and then the equity market - and that would cause a run INTO the dollar - ala fall 2008? What am I missing.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:25 | 93607 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Thanks for the compliment.  Sorry, my wording was a bit awkward.

What I meant was the inevitable continuation of MBS purchases would kill the dollar, not the stopping of purchases.  If he really stopped purchases in March, he might slow down the death of the dollar (somewhere around 68DXY and $1500 gold).

But it is my thesis that he will be forced to continue to purchase Fannie and Freddie MBS, as there are no other buyers to step in.  This continued money printing will kill the dollar.

In case you missed it, below is a repost of a link I posted in another thread (you may have to register - it is free).  Many good explanations of why the Fed will not be able to stop buying agency MBS in March, barring full faith and credit backing, which is extremely unlikely to happen (unless maybe on a go-forward basis only - it would be interesting to see them thread that needle).

 

http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/174_194/fed_moves_will_shape_gses_f...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:15 | 93456 Rama V
Rama V's picture

Democracies vote for what they get.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:22 | 93472 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Really? How can any rational human being at this point think that it actually matters who is in office? The only difference between Obama and McCain is that with McCain we would have already begun a full scale invasion of Iran rather than a covert war through proxies.

We "vote" much like the Iranian's do... for no fucking purpose.

ps... Great work ZH, if not for you we'd truly be blind (or long, who knows :))

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:53 | 93517 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

+ 1 million

the anti-obama trolling on this site always rings false to my ears. it's us vs. them right now, and the thems are winning

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:51 | 93625 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

He said Democracy NOT Democrat.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:03 | 93533 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

I'm sure he can speak for himself, but he has a point. We truly do have a completely perfect democracy, IF WE CHOOSE TO PARTICIPATE. Ahem, sorry about the shouting.
- we get to vote. Of course, we in the aggragate have no clue what constitutes adequate qualifications; we don't really monitor our "representatives" voting record after we elect them; we have zero clue what we want or why in goverment policy; this apathy and ignorance allows for lobbying to exist ( they are inefftual and GONE, tomorrow, if we paid attention )
- we also vote with our dollars every day. And our every purchase, again in the aggregate, is followed very closely. If we cared about real reporting, real information, real discussions of issues, and let media and more importantly their sponsors know "toot sweet" when what was delivered was not to our liking, we would very quickly get the goods. But we in the aggregate get what we get, 'cuz well be be idiots.
- In this true democracy, if the masses overcame the apathy and ignorance, we could change direction tomorrow. The internet allows instant communication, and if we told our dear reps, these are the new rules, you WILL audit the Fed; you WILL tell us where all the money went; you WILL do what is best for the constituency, not all the special special so very special interests, or you WILL be replaced, again, toot sweet, well that would be something would it not
- alas alack, not a chance in hell. Not when 25% of the man on the street can't find Mexico and Canada on a map.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 07:42 | 93931 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

hallelujah cowbell

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 00:09 | 93812 Argos
Argos's picture

McCain would have had a major heart attack by now, and Mrs. Palin would be in charge.  Doesn't that scare you?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:25 | 93557 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We have a democracy on election day. Every other day we have a capitalocracy, i.e. a corporate plutocracy.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:23 | 93473 Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

"These shell games are getting tiresome. "

 

You can say that again.

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:24 | 93480 Oso
Oso's picture

this made me vomit a little into my throat.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:29 | 93486 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

My cynicism is rewarded once again.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:39 | 93495 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

US banks are toast

Financial stability
Country/Economy Rank Score
Norway 1 5.73
Switzerland 2 5.66
Hong Kong SAR 3 5.63
Chile 4 5.62
Singapore 5 5.61
Saudi Arabia 6 5.60
Canada 7 5.57
Kuwait 8 5.49
Australia 9 5.48
Germany 10 5.34
Finland 11 5.27
France 12 5.27
Malaysia 13 5.14
Mexico 14 5.13
Brazil 15 5.13
Czech Republic 16 5.08
United Arab Emirates 17 5.07
Sweden 18 5.07
Denmark 19 4.99
Slovak Republic 20 4.92
Netherlands 21 4.91
Peru 22 4.90
China 23 4.83
Austria 24 4.81
Colombia 25 4.80
Poland 26 4.78
Israel 27 4.76
Korea, Rep. 28 4.73
Nigeria 29 4.71
Bangladesh 30 4.69
South Africa 31 4.67
Spain 32 4.66
Belgium 33 4.66
Japan 34 4.57
Panama 35 4.57
Thailand 36 4.57
United Kingdom 37 4.57
United States 38 4.56
Russian Federation 39 4.50
Bahrain 40 4.49
Ireland 41 4.48
Venezuela 42 4.44
Indonesia 43 4.44
Italy 44 4.44
Egypt 45 4.27
India 46 4.23
Philippines 47 4.12
Pakistan 48 4.10
Vietnam 49 3.82
Jordan 50 3.79
Turkey 51 3.79
Hungary 52 3.70
Argentina 53 3.68
Kazakhstan 54 3.50
Ukraine 55 3.19

http://www.weforum.org/pdf/FinancialDevelopmentReport/Report2009.pdf

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:12 | 93546 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

At least we are better than Nigeria! Err....never mind...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:29 | 93610 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We are worse my friend.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:20 | 93553 Herr Morgenholz
Herr Morgenholz's picture

Look out Latvia!  We're on your ass!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:43 | 93621 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

:-))
Liked it!

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 00:38 | 93833 chindit13
chindit13's picture

This list is nonsense.  Do some homework on your own.  For example, Austria has the equivalent of 75% of its GDP in Austrian bank exposure to emerging market debt, most of that in a combination of Latvia, Hungary, Ukraine, Czech Republic and the former states of Yugoslavia.  The major Swiss banks have 40% Swiss GDP equivalent in exposure to EEM, and both UBS and CS have total assets which are 4x the total Swiss economy.  (The largest US bank, BAC, has assets totalling about 14% of US GDP).  Deutsche Bank has leverge of 40:1.  Chinese banks are lready wards, or instruments, of the State.  And all the big banks, US or international, have huge derivative books OBS (it's just that Chinese Banks are officially allowed to renege on losers).

Bottom line:  with the possible exception of Norway, they're all f**ked.

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:47 | 93506 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

why do i keep reading this about this stuff. it just makes me so angry its hard for me to socialize when im out at the bar thinking about how america is being taken for granted.

how the founding fathers would tell all of us to get our guns out and take back the government (which is the reason why we can bear arms, to protect ourselves from government.)

i do want them to win, but for my own personal sanity i might have to stop reading posts on this website. these assholes in charge drive me bonkers.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:29 | 93609 Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Imagine how a sane, reflective person would feel in Germany in the 30's while everyone is chanting at a Hitler rally/military parade... something along the lines of "Ohhho shit" 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:49 | 93666 Plainview
Plainview's picture

LOL! Exactly, you'd be thinking "hmmmm, time to get out of ze dodge"...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:50 | 93513 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Let me guess blankfein sold it to the Fed. Why else is turbo timmy talking to blankfein so frequently. Insider trading is legal if the government is doing it as Nixon would say.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:56 | 93520 perpetual-runner-up
perpetual-runner-up's picture

There isa reason for this...and I mean in the geopolitical space...the obvious thing is to sell dollars...and for folks overseas to sell dollars...the question is why?

It is so obvious, and we are so nasty (good) in our ability to control things, I cant help there is a chips in the middle wager going on here to collapse Russia and China again...

 

That is clearly our objective, butI dont know if we are going straight up financial war, or trying to destabalize and cause internal revolt...

 

All of this action, from our own spending, to the position of the dollar with our debt, that something else is afoot...

 

It could be bet that collapsing the dollar and sticking it to russia and china, despite the carnage at home, would be cheaper than a war...betting that the american people and our history is such that we will pull ourselve out of it....

 

doing all of this now is better than doing it in ten years when our military isnt hardened and their militaries are built back up...

 

that is my optomistic side shining through...If I am right, I envision a "you just got punked" moment from the US to the rest of the world...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:27 | 93558 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Here is how I think of it in simple terms.

There are three blocs -- dollar, euro and resource.

Different countries are members of one or more blocs.  When geopolitical/economic pressure rises (and it really hasn't yet), countries will have to choose the block with which they will ally, and blocs will go to financial war (low grade I hope) with one another.

Today the dollar bloc has members like US, Japan, China, Korea, etc.  You would also include the Gulf states, and probably UK, Canada, Australia.  Stephen Jen wrote some time ago about the de facto US dollar currency union; that's basically what I mean.

The euro bloc includes all the explicit Euro members, but you could also throw the UK in there, and maybe Russia and some former Soviet republics.

The resource bloc includes the Gulf states, Russia, Canada, Australia, etc.

While there are the potential for strains within the US dollar bloc, particularly along the Sino-US axis, I think it is a ruse.

We (the US) have already split a big part of the resource bloc, with alliances/invasions in the Sunni Arab world.  Canada and Australia are reasonably predisposed to remain within the dollar bloc.

Watch for the real pressure to fall between the dollar and euro blocs.  Could the end goal be a break-up of the euro?

I think the "tell" comes when QE 2.0 gets announced.  Under QE 1.0, the Chinese and Japanese (big holders of US mortgage debt) have an incentive to keep quiet until they complete rotation out of MBS/agencies into Treasuries.  When that's complete they have more incentive to complain about devaluation.  If the Chinese/Japanese don't complain (or just jawbone), I'll take that as a sign they are firmly in the dollar bloc.  They will also be well positioned in the short end of the Treasury yield card, so that is a pretty good trump card they will hold for the future, if and when they need it.

For the life of me, I can't see the motivation for Asia to bet on the future of Europe over the future of the Americas.  But maybe it just escapes the narrow mind of this short-sighted, US-centric American!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:45 | 93571 perpetual-runner-up
perpetual-runner-up's picture

I hear ya on that, but I dont see a "Why"...

What are we trying to accomplish- just reset our debt?  Look at Japan....There is something more here and I dont have a handle on it...I am trying to look outside of rational conclusion drawing to see if I can see a picture...

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:52 | 93579 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

The "why" would be to extend and considerably strengthen (even formally) US dollar hegemony.

Think of debt in a different context.  What if "net" debt of the US dollar bloc (not aggregate debt) were viewed in the context of the total GDP/income of the US dollar bloc?  View it also in the expected growth of the GDP/income of that US dollar bloc, and how that growth could be counted on to service the debt.  Would the debt be viewed differently?

Compare it to how we think of the United States.  Certainly there are states that run trade or current account deficits with the rest of the Union -- do we care?

If more nations (read economies) can be pulled into a given bloc (which means pulled out of another bloc), the future income of that nation can be used to service the liabilities of the bloc as a whole.

It is an admitedly simple view!

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 17:56 | 93523 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Tyler. I never understand why you go on about these things. Even if the Fed printed money and gave it directly to new home buyers in exchange for a mortgage, it wouldn't be any different than buying aged MBSs or Treasuries. It doesn't become monetization in the former case and quantitative easing in the other. Printing money is printing money. You can call it anything you want. It is the same.

What differentiates the Fed from Zimbabwe is that we will eventually drain the liquidity and sell those back on the market. Zimbabwe has no intention of doing this. In fact it has nothing to sell. You can be cynical about whether we will ever do this or simply leave the monetization in place, but it doesn't matter one iota how many years, days or hours have elapsed since the credit creation and the Fed's monetization.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:33 | 93562 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I have 2 issues with your thesis:

What differentiates the Fed from Zimbabwe is that we will eventually drain the liquidity and sell those back on the market. Zimbabwe has no intention of doing this. In fact it has nothing to sell.

1.what makes you think the fed will have something to sell (have you seen their balance sheet?)

2. if in fact they do have something to sell, whay make you think they would have a BUYER? In your exampe isn't a buyer necessary to drain liquidity?

 

 

 

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:29 | 93608 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

The Fed will never be able to sell its MBS back to the market at anywhere near face value without full faith and credit backing of the USG.  In their current form, with the owner of the MBS facing two failed GSEs, there is no buyer at today's prices.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 15:30 | 94423 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It doesn't need to sell them at face value. If it loses money then so be it. But it won't lose ALL its money. Maybe, they take a 10% loss. So what? The remaining 10% of cash that remains in the economy is inflationary but not hyperinflationary. Of course any such inflationary action is likely to be overcome by the deflationary force of falling outstanding loan balances, high unemployment and demographic effect disfavoring rising consumption.

But my main point is that whether you call it monetization or QE, it doesn't matter how long you wait between credit creation and central bank purchase. It has the exact same effects.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:52 | 93668 Plainview
Plainview's picture

Hey Ben, didn't expect to see you 'round here, how's tricks..?

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 01:19 | 93841 chindit13
chindit13's picture

So the Fed "has the intention" of selling it back in the market?  And I have the "intention" of playing point guard for the Boston Celtics.  Now if I could only still dunk it like when I was young.....

You think PIMCO is going to buy this stuff?

"What's that Ben?  You've got $1.25 trillion of FNM and FRE paper on which you paid a 2% yield equivalent?  Sure I'll quote you a two pip spread on those fine goods.  I've got a spare trillion or so lying around collecting dust."

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 15:36 | 94437 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Of course PIMCO will buy it at the right price. They bough MBS heavily, earlier this year. They are buying Treasuries now expecting continued deflation. These MBSs are still effectively guaranteed by the government like they always have been.

Will the Fed take a nominal loss? Probably but it doesn't really matter. Yes, whatever loss they take results in more money in the economy but that appear to be over-powered by the credit contraction.

The Fed still appears unable to create the inflation they want as funny as that sounds. So they will keep printing until they see at least a little inflation, 2% minimum.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:01 | 93530 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

How much profit did GS make on the deal?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 18:12 | 93547 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

the sound of his voice makes me angry

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:00 | 93590 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I own paper and physical gold, silver and platinum. Monetary policy is insane.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:05 | 93594 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You mean there is no Santa Clause?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:12 | 93600 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And Atlas shrugged

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 19:56 | 93628 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

i can't shake the feeling that those people REALLY think that they are performing a messianic duty when they print like a crazy Wiemar banker on blow. I mean, there is no sound explanation ( except they have a purpose and a goal in destroying the world and getting nothing out of it; bad trade me thinks ) why would they do the things they are doing for the past 100 yrs. If its the preservation of the mono-super-power status, they are doing a piss poor job for generations now, if its to save America, also. Their madness is truly one for the textbooks; just not sure which one.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:08 | 93636 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

control, plain and simple... whatever the cost.

They are certain that they know best whats good for us and they are mandating upon us through the act of socializing the liabilitites and privatizing the money supply (theres a good article about it I read today but cant recall who worte/posted it). Also through specific taxes they can control spending and behavior (for example the obama science czar proposed taxing the snot out of baby products such as powder, diapers or cradles if the peasants ever got too populous;along the same lines they can tax alcohol/guns if we get too rowdy; tax the internet if we start talking too much).The fact that the control is extremely inefficient and costly doesnt bother them.

That said govt policy towards ISPs is the thing to watch here. Maybe they know that a direct tax is too controversial so the move I would expect is some policy that indirectly taxes the consumer of the internet by increasing the ISP costs.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:27 | 93654 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

yes, but control here is not a deterministic transition from one domain into another; it is more stochastic, so i see no point to do the shit they are doing just to gain or preserve control; we know both parties are bought and paid for; but what is the end game of those who own them;pure control ( see above, not very likely ), massive accumulation of wealth into the arms of the few ( again, not likely, given that the money by itself is practically worthless ), is it just a game which they play. I really dont know, it all just seem pointless and without any goal OR they are crazy enough in their thinking that they have adopted the paradigm of One World Government ( which would necessarily need to be a government based upon Marxs writings; meaning; one religion,one ideology, one currency,one set of laws and a merging of cultures ) which is highly impossible given the number of variables which tell us that is impossible to achieve. Really, this whole shit is pointless when you know EVERYTHING eventually dies due to disequilibrium which necessary rises after some time period. Maybe its my nihilism, but i just dont see the point in not even one action they did.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:49 | 93661 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

ok well you're assuming that those seeking control can grasp the meaning of your first sentence. (in fact I have a hard time with it on my own) There are various different plans out there and each person in th oligarchy wants to mould the world to their own model. They could care less about the number of variables (they let the social simulation software at the CIA take care of those). Never before has there been such concentrated amount of control an power. These bastards have really leveraged themselves something awful in respect to our society. The point is to use that lever so they can live like gods in this upcoming period of resource scarcity.

I mean its pretty simple here Cheeky, just because you can picture the impossibility and absurdity of it all doesnt mean they can. The power, leverage and control has been concentrated in few hands before (never quite like this I would venture) and the goal has always been more power, leverage and control. when it comes down to it these are simple minded people. Nevermind the fact that theyre cunning like a fox.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:59 | 93677 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

so, it my nihilism and nothing more. Damn it, and i was counting that those who are in control have some brain power; but yeah; i get it now; just plain old greed greed and more greed. 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 21:52 | 93720 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

speaking of nihlism, have you ever seen the Big Lebowski?

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 21:58 | 93723 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

i doubt that The Dude is a nihilist, more of a " i-don't-give-a-shit-ist "

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 22:26 | 93742 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

not the Dude, but the nihilists that randomly show up. anyways, the word nihilism brings the association and hence a healthy chuckle about, which in turn gives people the impression that I'm insane.

IDK why but had to share...

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 00:01 | 93805 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They have to destroy the individual countries and bring the IMF into existance. People are bitching at thier public representatives which is why all the power has to go into a divorced completely uncontrollable completely free of all moral and legal and ethical limitations global IMF so that representatives of each country can just tell their constituents. The IMF made me do it i have no power or control over them.There's nothing in the laws that lets me do anything. I'm powerless. We have to live with it and accept it.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 20:48 | 93665 aztrader
aztrader's picture

I bet the brokers are making a fortune off of all this churning.  Who cares as long as the taxpayers are eating the losses...............

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 21:37 | 93704 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Each morning I wake and expect to hear of the first actual shot to be fired wether it be from or against the american people. Seems alot of terrorist plots being found these days. Not only have I found a part time job after 3 months but friends in FL say work there is picking up. I just wait for the next shoe to drop but can't for the life of me figure out what it will be.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 21:40 | 93705 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

CRE, dollar brake, Debt, Healthcare Reform, new bailouts, Iran-Israel war ( think oil price ); cashing in on the gains etc. etc. i mean you chose.

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 22:02 | 93728 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

I just got this from the folks at Fannie. This is the final terms on the deal under discussion.

A little help here please. Can we get a breakdown of the price/yield that the Fed bought this 30 minutes later?

I am sure that the price paid was issue plus. But seeing it would make me feel better.

Bkrasting@gmail.com

http://www.fanniemae.com/newsreleases/2009/4823.jhtml?p=Media&s=News+Rel...

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 01:17 | 93839 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Bruce, I am pretty sure the Fed buys this directly when it is issued, just like any buyer of new issuance (through their agents like Blackrock, of course).  There is no intermediate transaction.

The Fed came out a few weeks ago and said they would be buying new issuance.  I can't find a link right now, but it was in the news recently.

 

 

Thu, 10/08/2009 - 23:26 | 93786 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

The werewolf is at it again, Grayson Vs. Fed via CNBC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnJ6ayqrmTQ&feature=sub

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 00:05 | 93808 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

The majority of the masses have believed in the major organized religions for thousands of years, even though it is obvious to any rational, free-thinking person that they are all made-up stories.  As long as everyone else is willing to pretend it is real and play along, so will they.  Because, in theory, they have something to gain from believing it.

This is basically how the world is treating the USD.  Pope Bernanke II just needs to preach to the masses for a few more years before they can rid themselves from enough of their asset burden to claim victory against the non-believers.

In inflation we trust.

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 01:50 | 93861 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Folks-Feb 2009. Look at the charts. both dollar and Gold went up together. In a credit crisis, cash is hard to get, and gold is the money of last resort. FEB 2009. It just happened. Whats bad for dollar is not exactly good for gold and vice versa. Before you flip out-look at the charts. FEB 2009. Banks were crashing-flight to money. gold is money not a dollar hedge in a deflation

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 01:55 | 93863 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

So let me get this straight-All those lovely,member, toxic banks manage the sale of those agency bonds. The mother ship(FED) buys them 30 minutes later?

You think the FED could sell secondary offerings for Martha Stewart Omnimedia too. A miracle!

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 09:37 | 94013 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I want to know what they paid for what they just sold. I want to know what wall street made on the deal. It is disgusting

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 14:00 | 94224 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

probably 1/16 of a point or less

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 13:49 | 94211 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

probably 1/16 of a point or less

Fri, 10/09/2009 - 17:11 | 94609 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Amazing how the whole real estate market is gov subsidized.

1. Down payment paid by $8k tax credit.

2. Teaser rate courtesy of 0% fed funds.

3. Tax deduction on interest.

4. Agency buys all mortgages, and fed buys all agency paper.

5. Banks paid to rewrite delinquent loans.

Imagine the devastation in real estate if all these props ended. What's next? Personally, I'm waiting for free lawn care and maid service before I'll buy.

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