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Fed's Brian Sack: "The Fed Will Be Embarking On A Tightening Cycle Like No Other In Its History"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Brian P.
Sack
, Executive Vice President. Recall that Brian is the de-facto head of the Fed's "markets group" operation located on the 9th Floor of Liberty 33. If there is indeed a Plunge Protection Team, Brian is likely the PM who runs it.

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference, Arlington, Virginia

Thank
you for inviting me to speak today. In my remarks, I will provide an
update on the progress that the Federal Reserve is making toward
preparing for a smooth exit from the extraordinary policy actions that
were taken in response to the financial crisis.1

I should note up front that I will not be providing any information
about the likely timing of policy tightening; those decisions will be
made and communicated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Instead, I will focus my comments on the policy tools and strategy that
are likely to be used whenever that exit becomes appropriate. I will
also discuss the preparedness of financial markets for the Fed's exit,
in order to assess how financial conditions may evolve as the exit
approaches and gets under way.

When the time comes to tighten monetary policy, the Federal Reserve
will be embarking on a tightening cycle like no other in its history.
First, this tightening cycle will have two policy dimensions, in that
the FOMC will have to decide on the path of its asset holdings in
addition to the path of the short-term interest rate. Second, we will
be using tools to drain reserves that are new and that will have to be
implemented on a scale that the Fed has never before tried. And third,
we will be operating in a framework of interest on reserves that has
not been fully tested in U.S. markets.

All of that may sound risky. However, I believe the Federal Reserve is
positioned to minimize any risks involved. Most important, we have
worked hard to ensure that we have all of the tools needed to exit, and
FOMC members have begun to describe a strategy for using them that is
cautious along several dimensions. In addition, if we communicate
effectively, the markets should be clearly informed and well prepared
ahead of the exit. These are the points that I will emphasize in more
detail.

Liquidity Facilities: A Success Story
When discussing the Federal Reserve's exit strategy, it is important to
separate liquidity facilities from the stance of monetary policy. While
the exit from the accommodative monetary policy stance has yet to
begin, the exit from liquidity facilities is nearly complete. Let me
begin with some comments on recent developments regarding the liquidity
facilities, and then I will move on to monetary policy.

As is well known, the Federal Reserve launched a number of liquidity
facilities to provide short-term funding to the financial markets
during the crisis, in order to meet the extraordinary demand for
liquidity at that time. Here I am referring to those facilities that
provided funding at maturities of up to three months to particular sets
of firms, such as the primary dealers, money market mutual funds,
commercial paper issuers, and depository institutions.2
Just today, we conducted the last operation associated with those
facilities, meaning that all of the short-term liquidity facilities
that were introduced during the crisis have now effectively been
retired. The only special liquidity program that remains active is the
Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which I consider to differ
from the short-term liquidity programs because it provides funding for
up to five years.

With the wind-down of these short-term liquidity facilities, it is a
good time to look back and assess their performance. The bottom line
here is simple: These programs were an unquestionable success. We have
witnessed a remarkable improvement in the functioning of short-term
credit markets and an impressive recovery in the stability of large
financial firms. While a whole range of government actions contributed
to this recovery, giving financial institutions greater confidence
about their access to funding, and that of their counterparties, was
most likely a crucial step toward achieving stability.

Moreover, the exit from these facilities has been quite smooth. At
their peak, these facilities provided more than $1.5 trillion of credit
to the economy. Today, the remaining balance across them is around $20
billion. It is impressive that the Fed was able to remove itself from
such a large amount of credit extension without creating any
significant problems for financial markets or institutions. That
success largely reflects the effective design of those programs, as
most were structured to provide credit under terms that would be less
and less appealing as markets renormalized. This design worked
incredibly well, as activity in most of the facilities gradually
declined to near zero, allowing the Fed to simply turn them off with no
market disruption.

The success of these facilities should be judged by the outcomes they
produced for financial market functioning, and not by the financial
returns they generated on the Federal Reserve's books. However, there
are several reasons why the Fed might be expected to profit from this
type of lending under most circumstances. First, the Fed is providing
funds in response to an extreme move in the price of liquidity—that is,
it is in effect buying a cheap asset. Second, the programs themselves,
if successful at returning market functioning, would help the
performance of the Fed's loans to be sound. And third, the lending
under these facilities has to be adequately secured.

Asset Holdings: A Policy Lever
While the exit from the liquidity facilities has been successful, the
exit from the accommodative stance of monetary policy involves a
different set of challenges. Many of these challenges arise from the
Federal Reserve's outright holdings of Treasury debt, agency debt and
agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which together represent the
overwhelming share of the Fed's balance sheet today. Indeed, as a
result of our large-scale asset purchase programs, these asset holdings
now account for $2.0 trillion of the Fed's $2.3 trillion balance sheet.

The Federal Reserve is approaching the scheduled end of its large-scale
asset purchases. We have bought $169 billion of agency debt to date,
nearly fulfilling our plan to purchase "about $175 billion." For MBS,
we have only about $30 billion of purchases remaining to reach our
$1.25 trillion target. In addition, we completed $300 billion of
purchases of Treasury securities late last year. Looking across these
programs, we have now purchased $1.69 trillion of assets, bringing us
98 percent of the way through our scheduled purchases. To get to this
point, the Trading Desk at the New York Fed has so far conducted 126
discrete operations to purchase Treasury and agency debt, and has
managed 292 trading days on which either it or its investment managers
have acquired MBS.

My view is that the purchase programs have helped to hold down
longer-term interest rates, thereby supporting economic activity. With
the conclusion of the programs approaching, the Desk has been tapering
the pace of its purchases of agency debt and MBS. However, even as the
pace of our purchases has slowed, longer-term interest rates have
remained low, and MBS spreads over Treasury yields have remained tight.
This pattern suggests that the effects of the purchases have been
primarily associated with the stock of the Fed's holdings rather than
with the flow of its purchases. In that case, the market effects of the
purchase program will only slowly unwind as the balance sheet shrinks
gradually over time.3

In my previous speech back in December, I discussed in detail the
channels through which these market effects may arise. By removing
large amounts of duration and prepayment risk from the market, the
Fed's asset purchases reduced the volume of risk that the market had to
hold, which lowered the risk premia on those assets. Put differently,
the purchases bid up the prices of those assets and hence lowered their
yields. The lower levels of yields would be expected to boost other
asset prices as investors substitute into alternative asset classes.
These patterns describe what researchers often refer to as portfolio
balance effects.

Such effects are important to consider, because they have implications
for monetary policy. If the Fed's holdings of assets have produced
lower long-term interest rates, the FOMC has to carefully take into
consideration how it will manage the size of its balance sheet going
forward. In particular, a rapid and substantial reduction in our
holdings of assets would likely push up long-term interest rates that
is, it would put upward pressure on those rates by unwinding the
portfolio balance effect. That increase in long rates would, in turn,
weigh on other asset prices, reversing the positive effects that had
been associated with the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.

Under this view, the size of the Fed's asset holdings becomes a
relevant policy lever. Accordingly, this will be the first tightening
cycle for which there are two broad policy decisions in play, as the
FOMC will have to set out not only the path of the short-term interest
rate, but also the path of its asset holdings. The decisions on these
two variables will have to be made in conjunction with one another to
produce the desired outcome for economic activity and inflation.

These considerations leave open a range of outcomes for how the two
instruments will be used. In his February 10 testimony, Chairman
Bernanke described a possible approach for managing the size of the
balance sheet. In particular, he indicated that he does not currently
anticipate that the Fed will sell any of its asset holdings until the
economic recovery is more firmly established and policy tightening has
gotten underway. Until that time, the portfolio would shrink only
through asset redemptions. Chairman Bernanke noted that the Fed's
holdings of agency debt and MBS are being allowed to roll off the
balance sheet, without reinvestment, as those securities mature or are
prepaid, and that the FOMC may choose to redeem some of its holdings of
Treasury securities in the future, as well.

With this approach, the FOMC would be shrinking its balance sheet in a
gradual and passive manner. That, in my view, is a crucial message for
the markets. It should limit any reversal of the portfolio balance
effects described earlier, effectively putting reductions in asset
holdings in the background for now as a policy instrument. As long as
this approach is maintained, it would leave the adjustment of
short-term interest rates as the more active policy instrument—the one
that would carry the bulk of the work in tightening financial
conditions when appropriate.

This approach is cautious in several dimensions. First, a decision to
shrink the balance sheet more aggressively could be disruptive to
market functioning. Second, a more aggressive approach would risk an
immediate and substantial rise in longer-term yields that, at this
time, would be counterproductive for achieving the FOMC's objectives.
Third, the effects of swings in the balance sheet on the economy are
difficult to calibrate and subject to considerable uncertainty, given
our limited history with this policy tool. And fourth, policymakers do
not need to use this tool to tighten financial conditions. They can
tighten financial conditions as much as needed by raising short-term
interest rates, offsetting any lingering portfolio balance effects
arising from the still-elevated portfolio.

Even under this cautious strategy of relying only on redemptions, the
Federal Reserve could achieve a considerable decline in the size of its
balance sheet over time. From now to the end of 2011, we project that
more than $200 billion of the agency debt and MBS held by the Federal
Reserve will mature or be prepaid, though the actual total will depend
on the path of long-term interest rates and the prepayment behavior of
mortgage holders. Thus, the Fed's asset holdings would shrink
meaningfully if the FOMC maintains its current strategy of not
reinvesting those proceeds. In addition, about $140 billion of Treasury
securities mature between now and the end of 2011, giving the FOMC
scope to reduce its asset holdings even further if it chooses to not
replace some of those maturing securities.

While the passive strategy of relying on redemptions may be appropriate
for now, it might not be sufficient over the longer-term. One problem
is that relying only on redemptions would still leave some MBS holdings
on our balance sheet for several decades. As indicated in the minutes
from the January meeting, the FOMC intends to return to a
Treasuries-only portfolio over time. This consideration could motivate
the FOMC to sell its agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at some
point, once the economic recovery has progressed sufficiently.

Draining Tools: Control of Short-Term Rates
Under the strategies just described, the Fed's asset holdings are
likely to still be elevated at the time that the FOMC wants to raise
short-term interest rates. That creates a challenge for controlling
those rates, because of the large amounts of reserves that were created
from the Fed's purchases of those assets. It is therefore important for
the Fed to determine the way in which it will raise short-term interest
rates in an environment with so much
liquidity—a topic that I will now cover.

The primary vehicle for making adjustments to short-term interest rates
in that environment is the ability to pay interest on reserves. We
would expect changes in the interest rate on reserves to have a
significant influence on other short-term interest rates. However, in
order to ensure our ability to influence those other short-term
interest rates, we have been developing two tools that can be used to
reduce the large amount of excess reserves in the banking system—term
deposits with banks and reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos)
with a broader universe of financial institutions. Let me first provide
an update on the progress we have made in developing these tools.

On term deposits, the Federal Reserve has received public comments on
the proposed structure of the facility that was published in December,
and we are working toward its final form. As described in the recent
Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve expects to be able to
conduct test transactions in the spring and to have the facility fully
ready, shortly thereafter, to conduct transactions when needed.

On reverse repos, we have already successfully run small-scale
operations using Treasury and agency debt as collateral with primary
dealers. However, that leaves two significant steps still to take in
preparing the tool. One is developing the capacity to use our MBS
holdings as collateral. Work in that area is nearly complete, and we
will likely conduct some small-scale operations with MBS collateral in
a month or so to exercise that capability. The other step is expanding
the set of counterparties that we use for such operations. Earlier
today, we published criteria for money market mutual funds to become
eligible to participate in reverse repo operations, which was a first
and important step in that direction. We are currently working with
other types of firms to assess their potential participation in the
program, as well. Our expectation is to have arrangements in place and
to be ready to transact with some non-dealer firms by the end of the
second quarter. This expansion of counterparties is important for
boosting the capacity of the program.

The bottom line is that the preparation of both facilities is advancing
very effectively. Looking across the two programs, we will have
established the capacity to drain a significant portion of excess
reserves by the second half of the year. Of course, achieving this
capacity does not say anything about how and when the FOMC will decide
to actually drain reserves.

The actual timing and size of draining operations, and their relation
to changes in the interest rate paid on reserves, will depend on how
market and economic conditions evolve. Chairman Bernanke discussed one
possible sequence in his February 10 testimony. He suggested that
operations to drain reserves could be run on a limited basis well ahead
of policy tightening, in order to give market participants time to
become familiar with them, and then could be scaled up to more
significant volume as we approach the time for policy tightening.

Removing a portion of the excess reserves from the system ahead of
increasing the rate paid on reserves is a cautious approach, as it
should improve the Fed's control of short-term interest rates when it
comes time to tighten monetary policy.4
To be sure, even at today's reserve levels, we would expect the
interest rate paid on excess reserves to exert considerable pull on
other short-term interest rates such as the federal funds rate or repo
rates. However, we are unsure of the exact relationship between these
rates and believe that it is likely to be tighter when the banking
system is not as saturated with liquidity as it is today. Thus, it may
be prudent to remove some portion of excess reserves before raising the
interest rate on reserves.

Note that the policy tightening in this scenario will still likely be
taking place in an environment of large excess reserve balances, and
the main workhorse of the tightening cycle will still be the interest
paid on reserves. However, the draining tools can be used to best
ensure the success of that framework.

Market Conditions: At Risk on Exit?
Finally, let me turn to conditions in financial markets and discuss
whether there may be vulnerabilities related to the Fed's exit from the
current monetary policy stance. I think there are two potential areas
of concern.

The first potential concern is that the exit strategy could simply
cause confusion among market participants, prompting volatility in
asset prices. As noted earlier, this tightening cycle, when it arrives,
will be more complicated than past cycles, as there will be more
decision points facing policymakers. With more decision points come
more opportunities for the markets to be confused by our actions. The
recent changes to the discount rate and the Treasury's Supplementary
Financing Program balances highlight this concern, as the amount of
attention that those actions received was outsized relative to their
significance for the economy or for the path of short-term interest
rates.

The burden is on the Fed to mitigate this risk by communicating clearly
about its policy intentions and the purpose of any operational moves it
might take. In this regard, the forward-looking policy language that
the FOMC is currently using in its statement is important. I would
argue that this language contains much more direct and valuable
information about the likely path of the short-term interest rate
target than does any decision about draining reserves. Indeed, it will
be difficult for market participants to make precise inferences about
the timing of increases in the target interest rate from the patterns
of reserve draining alone, in part because the FOMC has not specified
the path of reserves it intends to achieve before raising interest
rates.

The second potential concern that some may have is whether the markets
have adequately priced in the exit strategy. However, a few
considerations should limit this concern. Most important, the current
configuration of yields and asset prices incorporates expectations that
short-term interest rates will begin to rise around the end of this
year. Thus, the markets seem prepared for the risks toward tighter
policy. Moreover, looking out to longer maturities, the shape of the
Treasury yield curve appears to incorporate not only expectations of
policy tightening, but a decent-sized term premium on longer-term
securities. Indeed, the term premium is well above the levels observed
over most of the past several years, even though inflation is likely to
be low and upside inflation risks are limited. This should help to
diminish the chances of a sizable upward shift in yields.

A related issue is whether the current levels of risky asset prices
will prove robust in a rising rate environment. This may be a
particular concern among those who argue that the current low policy
rate environment has fueled an unsustainable rise in asset prices
beyond their fundamental values. However, this is not clearly the case
on a broad basis. Obviously, risky asset prices have undergone a
historic rise from their trough in early 2009. But this rise began from
an extreme starting point, one in which asset prices were being
depressed by the baseline forecast of a deep recession, by the prospect
of further downside risks to the economy, and by very elevated risk
premiums.

As the economy stabilized, asset prices benefitted from both the
improving economic outlook and a significant renormalization of risk
premiums—a pattern that was a desired outcome from the stance of
monetary policy. Moreover, we do not see definitive signs that risk
premiums have broadly become too low at this point. To be sure, a
number of significant risks remain in the economic outlook, and those
translate into financial market risks. Eventually, though, we expect to
reach a period of sustained, above-trend growth to absorb the
substantial slack in place, which is an environment that should be
quite supportive of risky asset prices. Policy tightening will
presumably occur as that happens, limiting the downside risk to markets
associated with policy actions.

Conclusion
In conclusion, the exit from the various liquidity facilities that the
Federal Reserve implemented has been very successful, as the up-front
design of those facilities reduced the need to actively manage the end
of those programs. However, the exit from the current stance of
monetary policy is quite different, in that it will have to be actively
managed to ensure a smooth exit.

I began the speech by noting that we face an extraordinary challenge
with this exit, given the historic steps that have been taken with the
Fed's balance sheet. This challenge, which involves operating in
uncharted territory along several dimensions, will inherently involve
some uncertainties and risks. However, as I hope is clear from my
remarks, the Federal Reserve's efforts to date should minimize those
risks. Indeed, I believe the Fed's efforts have been prudent along a
number of dimensions.

As a first step, we have been careful to make sure we have an adequate
set of tools. To that end, we have developed multiple tools that can be
used for draining reserves, in order to ensure our capability to do so.
Moreover, we have been testing those tools and will continue to take
steps to ensure that we and the markets are prepared to use them in
more significant volumes when needed. Developing the tools is not
enough, though. As a second step, policymakers will need to formulate a
strategy for using them in an appropriate manner to avoid any undesired
outcomes for financial markets and the economy.

The FOMC is actively engaged in determining that strategy, as indicated
in the FOMC minutes from the January meeting. The strategy to be
employed has not been fully decided, but recent speeches by FOMC
members and the recent FOMC minutes have begun to convey some of the
possibilities. Many of the potential steps described seem to guard
against the risks involved. For example, reducing the size of the Fed's
balance sheet through redemptions for now will produce a gradual
adjustment that will be easier for the markets to digest. In addition,
steps taken to drain reserves ahead of policy tightening may best
ensure the success of interest on reserves at influencing other
short-term interest rates.

Overall, an approach along these lines should help to ensure a smooth
exit from the current accommodative stance of monetary policy.
Moreover, if the Fed's intentions are well communicated to the
financial market participants, they too should be fully prepared and in
the best possible shape for navigating this exit.

______________________________________________________
1

The views expressed here are not necessarily shared by the Federal Open
Market Committee or by other members of the staff of the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York.
2 In discussing these
facilities, I am not including any provision of credit intended to
support specific institutions, including those associated with the
Maiden Lane LLCs. I include the Term Securities Lending Facility in
with short-term lending facilities, even though it provided the market
with Treasury securities rather than reserves, because it was often
used to find funding for positions in less liquid securities.
3
An alternative explanation is that the large-scale asset purchases have
had no effect and that the low levels of rates and spreads simply
reflect other factors. However, I believe the evidence indicates that
the asset purchases have contributed to the low level of longer-term
rates.
4 Some have discussed whether the draining of
excess reserves has effects on the economy beyond the implications for
short-term interest rates. In my view, it would be surprising if there
were significant effects on the real economy or inflation associated
with substituting one short-term, liquid, risk-free asset (reverse
repos or term deposits with the Fed) for another (reserves), except for
the degree to which that substitution affects the Fed's control of
overnight interest rates.

 

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Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:20 | 258297 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Disclaimers on his speech LOL.

KING DOLLAR.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 23:27 | 258720 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

...to wit; "...now that we've stolen evrery last dime we can steal and left the taxpayer on the hook, we'll contract the money supply so severely that the homeless, jobless masses will be starving in the streets and then we will control everything".

HANG 'EM ON THE STEPS OF THE FED BUILDING IN NEW YORK _ INVITE THE MEDIA

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 03:56 | 258926 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

gold, bitches?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:23 | 258301 dumpster
dumpster's picture

sure,, the fed this the fed that ,,

this tightening policy will come over the dead bodies of the political class ,, and not a day sooner ,

mouth opens nose gets longer

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:33 | 258315 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Lying sack-o-shit.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:24 | 258470 dumpster
dumpster's picture

the real skinny

The hype today was that since the Chairman was approved to maintain his position, the Fed re-established its power.

The real story is QE to infinity or the Fed is history.  sinclair

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:34 | 258317 mynhair
mynhair's picture

In addition, if we communicate effectively, the markets should be clearly informed and well prepared ahead of the exit.

- translation:  GS gets first dibs

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:37 | 258318 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

"making toward preparing for a smooth exit from the extraordinary policy actions that were taken in response to the financial crisis.1"

Smooth exit.

Brian "Sully" Sack?

I soooo don't think so.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:41 | 258323 Nihilarian
Nihilarian's picture

Reality: No pain; no gain.

Fed: No pain; no pain.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:41 | 258324 deadhead
deadhead's picture

The Fed tightening....that's pretty funny.  More jawboning, lies, bullshit, blah, blah, blah.

A responsible Fed would tighten but this Fed is far, far, far from being responsible.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 01:06 | 258829 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

Jawboning, yes. Lying? No.  This guy just unpacked the tool box and gave EVERYONE a looksie. For those participants who are happy to operate in a rigged market (banks, lenders) these remarks are a roadmap.

These remarks are also an admission... this guy pretty much admits and describes market manipulation and rigged outcomes as part-and-parcel of official Fed policy and operations. So the question in my mind is, "why would any non-lender/shallow pockets "investor" participate in these markets?".

Further, these remarks address assets only. There is no mention of organic economic activity. None. So what makes this guy (and the Fed) believe that ANY of these tools or policies will function as planned in a rapidly deteriorating global economy where productive assets increasingly fall idle (regardless of liquidity) as demand contracts year-over-year?

In an environment where cunsumer & business activity continues to deteriorate, the Fed's tools and policies are largely moot. This guy is describing policy theory and intent in a vacuum that bears lettle/no resemblence to reality.  Note that several of the tools described in these remarks have already been implemented and failed. I assume that no one in the room called him on this fact.

If the Fed does indeed execute per this playbook, we are in for 70's-style stagflation x100... asset deflation/inability to finance coupled with price inflation in fuel & food.

Going Galt will not be a matter of choice, it will be a matter of survival.

 

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 03:07 | 258894 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Well said.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:42 | 258325 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 What are they waiting for the recession is over. They already saved the economy.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 11:40 | 259129 OBRon
OBRon's picture

+1

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:48 | 258332 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So this will be a tightening cycle like no other in history?

"That's right".

Uh huh. Will you sell the $1.7 trillion worth of overpriced assets you bought and thus destroy that newly printed money?

"Well, we probably won't get around to that in the next few years."

Will you raise the fed funds rate at an aggressive pace, moving several times between scheduled meetings when the stock market gets a little irrationally exuberant?

"Uh, I don't really think that's on the agenda".

Will you go after the hundreds of billions of dollars that have been transferred from the pockets of savers/taxpayers to the balance sheets of big banks via the steep interest rate curve, TALF, TARP, PPIP, etc, etc, etc, and subsequently paid out to executives and traders in the form of massive bonuses.

"Well, we don't really have the authority to do that."

Will you reimburse individuals for the amount they overpaid in their 401K plans after your plunge protection team jacked up stock prices to bubble levels once again? What about homebuyers who overpaid due to your misguided efforts to re-inflate home prices to the previous unaffordable bubble heights?

"We at the fed can't really tell when we're in a bubble."

Well, what exactly do you plan to do?

"Well, we're gonna pay the banks a higher rate of interest on their holdings at the fed."

I see. You're right, this is definitely something new.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 03:10 | 258895 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Nice touch o' humor!

I needed that.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:49 | 258335 deadhead
deadhead's picture

the Trading Desk at the New York Fed has so far conducted 126 discrete operations to purchase Treasury and agency debt, and has managed 292 trading days on which either it or its investment managers have acquired MBS... during those "discrete operations" we've purchased a phucking shitload of eminis on sunday nite and early monday morning and are quite proud that our discretion and surreptitious activity has not been noticed by the markets.  further, we believe our substantial purchase of WFC, BAC, and other bank's common stock has gone off without a hitch and we expect to ease these back into the markets in the next millenium.  Though not a well known "household" name, our trading desk has been very "direct" in its ability to, shall we say, monitor the Treasury issuance market.


Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:57 | 258346 Rick64
Rick64's picture

" we've purchased a phucking shitload of eminis on sunday nite and early monday morning and are quite proud that our discretion and surreptitious activity has not been noticed by the markets.

LOL thats the truth.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:51 | 258336 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I presume the Fed's "Exit Plan" is for all the senior-level Fed guys to move to well-guarded estates in South America.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:19 | 258461 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wouldn't it be cheaper to store them all in one "well-guarded estate" in Leavenworth, Kansas?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:57 | 258345 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well I do believe it will be like no other in history, in that the fact the "tightening" will be Helicopter Ben dumping money out of his copter while screaming "Deflation! Deflation!"

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:23 | 258469 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think Ben upgraded to a B-52.

And from the ground, "de plane, de plane"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herv%C3%A9_Villechaize

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:06 | 258361 10044
10044's picture

Sack just got sacked!!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:08 | 258366 Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

actually, the entire point of the speech was to underscore the importance of managing market participants' expectations ... something most market participants entirely gloss over while bitching about facts on the ground.

the point is that managing mkt expectations is priority #1 in effectively affecting any exit strategy.  a great speech with some pretty f'ing clear between the lines inferences to take away.

thanks for another great look, TD.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:32 | 258406 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Kindly elaborate.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:14 | 258537 deadhead
deadhead's picture

chop...I think I understand what you are saying relative to the "point" of the speech, to wit, the importance of managing expectations.....however, the only managing that they have done is to say that rates will stay zero for(ever) a long time and when they upped the discount (meaningless for all intents and purposes) they were out in full force like a kid caught stealing a candy bar who cries out "i promise i'll never do it again, never, never, never"...frankly, it was such childish behavior that I found myself laughing.

Their point about successful management of expectations is accepted by me (then again, don't all of us try to successfully manage expectations with those whom we interact with?) but the fact is their management actions have shown that they basically aren't going to change things.  all that said, they are phucking up by aiding the banks in stealing the country's wealth, avoiding the historical lessons of a combined bank crises (internationally systemic I note) and unprecedented global debt crises and doing a lot of BS jawboning, obfuscation of facts, hiding their cash flow/asset purchase sausage up their ass and....well, we know the etceteras...... 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:48 | 258580 knukles
knukles's picture

Spot on, Chop.

+10

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:08 | 258367 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Dear Fed,

You have NO CREDIBILITY!  Either start tightening or STFU!  We're sooooooooo tired of the bazooka-speak.

Sincerely,

"Money on the sidelines"  hee hee

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:13 | 258377 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

same story and Calculated Risk's headline

NY Fed's Sack: Preparing for a Smooth (Eventual) Exit

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/ny-feds-sack-preparing-for-smo...

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:16 | 258382 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Oh dear god why is everything on zerohedge so funny in such a sad way... it's truly me laughing through tears every update.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:22 | 258394 Fritz
Fritz's picture

Talk is cheap.

Credibility is nonexistent.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:35 | 258413 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Sometimes, if you say you're gonna do something - any minute now, when you least expect it -  enough times, people come to believe it, and you achieve your goal without actually doing it.  Management of expectations by statement.  Let's see if the "Direct bidder" slows down on those purchases at the auctions. 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:32 | 258483 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

When the price of oil goes down in a big way, we might assume that the "direct bidder" is no longer Ben at his Xerox machine.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:16 | 258540 deadhead
deadhead's picture

there is always the Household sector my friend!!!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:39 | 258419 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I love these economic assumptions. Like oh, I don't know, that the MBS is actually worth 90% of what the face value of the underlying real estate is. Call me crazy but if the Fed buys it at 100, and then the Fed says it's worth 90 then turns around and sells it for 90 to a member bank but the underlying assets are worth 40, are they not monetizing crap or what? This game is not going to end well just because someone "says" XYZ is worth anything. Cash flow don't smoke itself. The insanity just will not freaking end.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:42 | 258424 Salah
Salah's picture

Re-compete the Federal Reserve Contract.  Time for an entirely new bunch of managers in America's most important subcontractor function. 

 

(first time since 1913)

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:46 | 258429 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

"like no other in its history"

Ain't that the truth?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:52 | 258435 AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Tighten?

Hmmm ...tighten.

Synonym: pucker

Yeah, that sounds right.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:30 | 258477 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

smooth exit,

sack,

this is pure beavis and butthead comedy gold here.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:57 | 258448 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Not knocking the ZH reporting, but I get tired of reading the burdensome crap. Thanks for the commenter's for insight and distilling for a dweeb like me! Thanks also to ZH!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:07 | 258452 NullShrub
NullShrub's picture

"As noted earlier, this tightening cycle, when it arrives, will be more complicated than past cycles, as there will be more decision points facing policymakers. With more decision points come more opportunities for the markets to be confused by our actions."

Confused? Welcome to the Matrix is all I have to say.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:21 | 258465 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

He trying to say the stock market will be fine. People expect the stock market to plunge when the "historic tightening" happens, but the PPT will make sure things "confuse" the markets.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:22 | 258468 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There is not even an inkling mention that they have plans to start buying again if asset prices start to fall when they stop what has been an average of $20+B per week of incessant buying for the last 15 months.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:49 | 258501 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Because Tyler subjected himself to reading this,
I did too.

My face began to turn sour at about this point:
"We have witnessed a remarkable improvement in the functioning of
short-term credit markets and an impressive recovery in the stability of large financial firms. While a whole range of government actions contributed to this recovery"

"To get to this point, the Trading Desk at the New York Fed has so far conducted 126 discrete operations to purchase Treasury and agency debt, and has managed 292 trading days on which either it or its investment managers have acquired MBS."
Wow. that's a lot of activity. In the old days we used to call people like
this 'movers and shackers' perhaps even 'market movers'.

Thank God for all you reality-based commentors, or I might start to nose dive down the wonderhole with Brian to say hello to Alice.

-MB

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:51 | 258506 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Don't say he didn't lay it out for everybody.

A)MBS won't be sold

B)There's enough current "premium" in long term yields
to tolerate anything they plan to do on the short end.

Course, one can conclude from this the economy sucks
and Sack will never get a job on the sell side.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:07 | 258527 rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

The "portfolio" effect theory is idiotic and not relevant.  The main focus of quant ease should have been treasuries with the occasional purchase of MBS when/if spreads widened. All yield would be lower today.  THe spread tightening of MBS will only result in more leverage by weaker market players and a more expensive, disruptive and less flexible exit strategy. There is little doubt that the massive buying of JUST MBS post the first 500bb of QE has dampened vol and resulted in spread tightening in most other fixed income prodcuts but the key question is where would the rates on corps/MBS?etc be if the Fed concentrated most of their purchases in treasuries. We might have a 3% 10 yr and the same rates on these other products with better and broader participation. The fact that 10 yr swap spreads are basically zero tells me something is very wrong. 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:06 | 258529 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Chairman Bernanke described a possible approach for managing the size of the balance sheet. In particular, he indicated that he does not currently anticipate that the Fed will sell any of its asset holdings until the economic recovery is more firmly established and policy tightening has gotten underway. Until that time, the portfolio would shrink only through asset redemptions.

The rest Sach's remarks are all distracting blither. The 'portfolio' will shrink by $5. That's all it's worth.

Who will swap back those MBS's and for what? The securities are garbage and the money paid for them is long gone ... to numbered bank accounts in Liechtenstein, the Caymans, Singapore and elsewhere.

Excuse me while I go and beat my head against the wall. If I was President I would send for the FBI and raid the Goddamned place ASAP. Bernanke and his lap dogs Dudley and Geithner are worth 20 years in the Federal slammer each for money laundering ... what a fucking racket!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:09 | 258532 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Okay, I got something out of it. Sack thinks long yields
have a premium in them and they won't be raising short
rates high enough to send risky assets back to the March
lows. Everybody got it now?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:14 | 258538 waterdog
waterdog's picture

The propaganda machine rolls on. I mean, I understand this was all about the Fed  and the banks and had nothing to do with reality, but, why did he not at least mention the vast amount of worthless US currency in the world and how that is going to be mopped up?

It was my impression over the past year that the only reason why the banks have excess liquidity is that they have removed from their books and records worthless assets that have not been charged off and the Fed has not purchased and, the remaining book assets that are worth 10 cents on the dollar are being held on the books at fantasy market values. If these assets were charged off and properly accounted for then there is no excess liquidity for the Fed to play games with. What the Fed is saying through this puppet is that the banks are going to loan to the Fed these excess funds the Fed gave the banks, continue to lie about the worthless assets that are hidden from stockholders and regulators, reduce the size of the Fed portfolio just for giggles, and pretend that there is not a tidal wave of expired government debt heading our way that cannot be refinanced.

This is not what I expected to read about when the story line began with-" When the time comes to tighten monetary policy, the Federal Reserve will be embarking on a tightening cycle like no other in its history." I was looking for hyperinflation or disinflation and how they were going to do it.

This speach is a great plan for the Fed balance sheet, and will probably work very well to meet the target interest rates with very little disruption to the stock market provided the stock market gets on board in a timely manner. It will remove reserves from the banks so the banks will not need to loan anyone any money.

But, it will not fix anything, will it?

 

 

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:31 | 258554 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ok. most days my brain is rather cool and dark, like a musty country cellar, but just now I had a flash of insight.
When we rolled into Iraq, we confiscated all the paper dough we had given them and made it go away.
Same with Afghanistan, although there are rumors about pallets of dough going from Afghanistan to Dubai lately?
But whatever. My theory now is that we can invade every single country on earth, confiscating whatever US currency print they have and disposing of it, then charging them appropriate fees to manage and rebuild their country.

I actually read this document about 10 years ago.
The document outlining the above plan.

No really.

HEH

-MB

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:16 | 258614 Bear
Bear's picture

Thanks for your insights ... they issue these wise pontifications to sound like they know that they is a way out of our hole without any real pain. There is no easy way. The only way that I can see this ending is with serious (maybe even hyper) inflation. What is the world going to do when we devalue the dollar;  stop buying from us, stop selling to us ... what happened to Germany post 1924 (nothing), they almost took over the world. 

We devalue ... what happens:

drug prices skyrocket (good)

Toyota's, BMW's and Mercedes' prices go up (who cares)

Oil, pegged in dollars, stays the same (well it goes up soon)

Better not be short any hard assets.

Basically since we are a 90% service economy and a 70% consumer economy, what we sell ... other countries need and what we buy ... we can get along without. Perfect scenario for devaluation. What happens when the world's reserve currency is devalued; no one knows.

Go to it ... ten cent dollar ... here we come

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:45 | 258558 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Sack: It's very complicated, untested, and completely unprecedented, but in theory will work, so don't worry.

This all sounds like one of Geordi LaForge's miracle engineering fixes from Star Trek.  Unfortunately reality never quite works as smoothly as does a 46 min sci-fi episode.

Geordi: If we use a Tricalian oscillator to induce resonance in the dilithium crystals, in theory we could reverse the polarity in the matter / anti-matter chamber and change interest rates to any level without impacting GDP, causing inflation, or reducing our speed below Warp 8.2

 

Data: It has never been tried before Captain, but in theory it should work

Don't you love living in a guinea pig economy?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 21:46 | 258576 Bear
Bear's picture

They cannot tighten before November ... If they tighten before then we dip double and Democrats take it on the chin 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:19 | 258618 deadhead
deadhead's picture

food for thought to a hungry bear:  the Fed and the banks would MUCH rather have Repubs than Dems from a historical and philosophical point of view.  plus, a fractured US gov't if Repubs get part or all of CONgress would be a Wall street dream to protect their franchise.....

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:58 | 258679 Bear
Bear's picture

Good thought ... I think that normally you would be spot on; but, the Repubs retake the House they will have nothing to do but witch hunt. It would seem that they might be able to pin a lot of underhandedness on Obama and Company if they were to dig. I think the main thrust of a Repub House would be to uncover the rot that was put in place by the current Administration so they can set up 2012.  

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:23 | 258632 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

He can still go fuck hisself.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:33 | 258653 Madcow
Madcow's picture

Fed tightening during a deflationary depression. Got it. 

First, to make sure a de-leveraging turns into an economic depression, we've got the US Treasury standing by to raise taxes.

To insure the economic depression devolves into cannibalism, we've got the Fed standing by to make sure the money supply vanishes completely.

 

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 23:08 | 258688 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who are those guys?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 23:12 | 258696 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

"A man's got to believe in something. I believe I'll have another drink." - W.C. Fields

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 23:21 | 258710 Arthur
Arthur's picture

“Second, we will be using tools to drain reserves that are new and that will have to be implemented on a scale that the Fed has never before tried. And third, we will be operating in a framework of interest on reserves that has not been fully tested in U.S. markets."

"All of that may sound risky…”

Hell yes, risky it is!

Kinda of like putting all of your remaining chips on black at the roulette wheel hoping to get back to even. The US economy should not be used to beta test economic theories, at least not on a large scale.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 03:20 | 258902 asteroid
asteroid's picture

I see two ways of looking at this, and I lean more one way than the other.

1) The FED sees the US in a nascent recovery and they are going to withdraw their accomodative stance during a normally expansive spring-summer cycle in anticipation of an economic up-crash about to take hold and surprise the American investing (and voting) public.  Praise be...

2) The FED knows that Greece and Cal-ee-forn-ya (among others) are going down.  So in anticipation of this the FED is changing their stance from accomodative to restrictive, complete with an interest rate tightening cycle (how convenient).  In other words, the FED knows that market rates are headed  higher, and they're going to try and stay in front of rising interest rates that the market will force upon them.  So this rat is going to try to leave the ship before it sinks, while telling US public investors that everything is fine and dandy.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 03:40 | 258916 godfader
godfader's picture

You know they used to call them Goldman Sack's! Now we know why.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 05:01 | 258938 Alexandra Hamilton
Alexandra Hamilton's picture

The primary vehicle for making adjustments to short-term interest rates in that environment is the ability to pay interest on reserves. We would expect changes in the interest rate on reserves to have a significant influence on other short-term interest rates.

Where do these reserves come from, the Fed? So you first borrow 100 mln from the Fed, leave the money with the Fed and get paid interest (how much 1%?) on that which you have loaned? The ultimate money machine. Making money without any risk or doing anything.

Can we have that for everyone please:

http://www.usbig.net/whatisbig.html

 

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 06:02 | 258951 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Remember -to keep it simple, we are only going to look after our friends.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 06:54 | 258960 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

there's no downside to this guy's story. everyhthing appears to have been a resounding success and this will continue.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 09:09 | 259018 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Scouring the best blogs on my RSS reader who I rank up there with ZeroHedge I found this on Jim Sinclair's: http://jsmineset.com/2010/03/08/in-the-news-today-483/

I took it as a nice way of saying Sack is an ignoramus 

 

 


Today the Fed MOPEs about draining excess liquidity via reverse repos. If this was enacted it would send interest rates soaring regardless of the economic condition when initiated.

Another interesting point to consider is that if you add all the cash of all money funds together, less losses on inventory, there isn’t enough money there if you used reverse repos to drain the trillions in excess liquidity. Despite this fact, both professionals and public alike buy this illogical propaganda and run with it, making so many gold people question their commitment.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 12:42 | 259189 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Flyin too much today...
It's so groovy to float around sometimes
even a jelly fish will tell you that
I said "floatation is groovy"
and a jelly fish will agree to that

Yeah but that old jellyfish
been floatin around so long
Lord he ain't got a bone
in his jelly back
Floatin everday and everinight
ridin high is a risk
sometimes the wind ain't right

Thu, 03/11/2010 - 03:48 | 261530 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

"292 trading days"

Isn't that basically every day since it went into effect?

Thu, 04/15/2010 - 10:29 | 301937 mark456
mark456's picture

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