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Fed's Bullard Says Could Do More Quantitative Easing If US "Got Into Bad Downturn"
If you needed any confirmation that the next round of QE is just around the corner, here it is. Just headlines for now. As the US is in a pretty "bad downturn" right about now, it is only a matter of time before Bernanke flips the turbo-print switch. Recall that Bob Janjuah expects the Fed to launch a new $5 trillion QE version by early 2011. The odds of him being right just went HFT caught in a short squeeze. Bullard also noted that QE will be removed eventually and in due course, which he presumably equated with a 5 year period. Expect ZIRP to last through 2015 at least. By then US debt/GDP will be around 100x (not %).
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They lie. If the choose this path, we will be experiencing ZIRP for decades and beyond. Ask the Japanese how that's worked out for them.
What I find truly amazing is the muted reaction from rest of the world that appears to be ever ready to exchange real goods and services for paper being created and circulated from the American financial system that can provide no real goods in exchange!
F the F
What? Timmy Two Hands said that neither America nor China would be nagatively impacted by the Euro crisis?
What's this guy Bullard know?
Amazing, whilst the Euro and Loonie go to 2 and 8 handles?
(Buellard? Buellard? Buellard? Are you here, Buellard?)
I think we're going to get a big late day meltdown again to close us below the year lows.
You told me to buy stocks 4 weeks ago.
Yep, he said to load up on AAPL. I wonder how that's worked out for those who listened to that advise.
I think equities will go up and down in unpredictable ways.
I like the way you think, do you have a newsletter I could subscribe to?
I think, therefore I am...out of this market.
To be or not to be (in the market) that's the question. Dead cat bounce. Sorry, it's been a while.
How about "fuck off I'm full."
Cogito, Ergo...get the fuck out!!!!!!!!
HarryWanger you are worse than pond scum.
you were wrong again...
Jawboning the markets, trying to preserve the viability of the paradigm "Don't bet against the Fed."
On a slightly related topic, has anyone else noticed how ZH commenters today are even more sarcastic than usual?
Nawhoooooo.
gallows humor. brings out the best, doesnt it.
When you've seen the same strip tease for the tenth times, there's bound to be a few catcalls.
Not that I've personally seen any female body other than my wife's.
Yeah man, me neither.
Me either.
thats like asking us to believe Gitner/Burnkey saying that GDP will grow 3.7 % ..
Hey, I've got my lies to defend and they've got theirs. :>)
I always thought you were a female. That changes things.
Your wife lets you see her body?
Well excuuuuuuuuuuuse me!
chet has an unlimited hall pass for as much sarcasm as he can carry.
YES! Then I'm ditching study hall. Y'all can join me behind the gym for some reefer.
Ummm... wanna compare buds?
LOL on the double entendre.
When I was a kid, the best home grown (meaning US product) was from Hawaii. Second best was California weed. Of course, it's all home grown if you live where it's grown.
Even US weed has been outsourced to better and cheaper producers.
One Hit guaranteed.
Of course it takes at least two before anything coming out of the EU makes any sense. We know it takes more than three to make any sense of Turbo Timmay. The problem is that after 3 hits nobody gives a damn.Which suddenly (and perfectly) explains what "they" have been doing. :>)
Huh......
I took Timmy to be more of a huffer.
You're the guy my mother warned me about. Then after meeting you I became the guy my mother warned me about. :>)
I got 5 on it.
4:20?
RE: "...has anyone else noticed how ZH commenters today are even more sarcastic than usual?..."
When all else fails, right?
Has Anyone else noticed how all ZH readers are pot heads??
Or ex-pot heads.
29 years straight and counting, sigh.
"Looks like I picked a bad day to stop smoking pot."
I wonder if these forums would be as interesting without ganja, open minds, and time to type away.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/25/241581/qe-the-uk-japan-and-samurai-central-banks/
Welcome to Fantasy Island.
Dullard is working hard to make "Every man, woman, child, and pet goldfish should short treasuries" an irresistable trade.
The Beast grows
As the ECB finally embarks on QE, will it have the pleasure of the company of the Fed? Or, will politics cause the US to zig right as Euroland zags left?
Pull the trigger, fuck-faces!
DO IT!
add that to Larry Summer's suggesting a second stimulus and we all know where this is heading.
Is it time to raise the debt ceiling already ?
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
"Fed's Bullard Says Could Give Addict More Heroin if Got Into Bad Withdrawal Symptoms"
God bless you, Bull-tard.
Is that Bull-Terd?
+1000
$5 trillion is that all.
They need $60 trillion just to get any handle on the debt liabilities.FED carn't print enought
One outlier would be the introduction of a two tier dollar.
One T1 dollar fixed debt pegged at 50% to T2 general circulation.
Smiling etrader, if they would print $500 and $1000 FRNs they might have a chance. I would like holding those as cash, until the inflation kicks in.
Those 500 Euro notes were very nice for awhile...
HAHAHHA!!! HAHAHAH!! [coughing, curl my stomach, retrieving my breath] HAHAHAHA!!
Gold-hate this bitches
LOL
You ain't seen nothing yet. This insanity is only getting warmed up. These people have shown no signs of sanity, so expect none and never be disappointed or surprised.
You perhaps imply "they are insane" as a convenient shorthand for "someone who absolutely knows what they doing, is doing it in a steely-eyed and steady-handed manner with intent to succeed, and can quickly and clearly explain what they are doing to a degree that would inspire awe in common people, but who is doing something that when fully accomplished per plan will utterly destroy the world as we know it."
But yeah, bunch of "insane" bastards, just like you said.
I can do it with less:
Crazy like a fox!
Done.
LOL
I was talking about us as much as them. And insane doesn't mean stupid or unaware. Besides, insanity is on a sliding scale that has as much to do with those who are doing the measuring as it has to do with actual sanity.
Yes good point. The PPT use the money they make shorting gold to then funnel back into the market via apple and other worthless companies.
Hold on a tick; I thought the recession was over?
Yeah, what about the 'America's Back' Newsweek edition on April 19th? I thought that was the 'all clear' signal.
It's almost enough to make you think nobody reads Newsweek anymore.
Newswhat?
Fed has money tree farm in the backyard.
I believe in the three g's; God, guns, and gold. Government needs to get out of my way.
They cant at the moment there waging an epic battle with gold @1200 for options expiry...
Not good.
The next QE cycle will start the hyperinflation cycle. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. It will be massive and I tell everyone now, when they launch the next QE cycle, buy stocks, gold, and silver to the hilt. DOW will head to 30k, when it gets there get out and put all your profits in gold and silver as the whole thing then starts to unravel. Get ready for the hyperinflation to take hold.
In the meantime global soveriegn debts are going to send the US markets into the gutter. Short bank stocks to the hilt right now. See you at DOW 5000 or less, then we will see QE $5 Trillion.
I agree, the key as usual is timing.
Riding the "reflation trade" was pretty easy IMHO once Bernanke announced his big QE foray on 3/18/09 (I bought oil, mostly, plus some other commodities).
Calling this temporary top wasn't too hard either - MBS QE ended just when the market topped.
The market is going down from here, unless and until QE2 starts. Then it goes into full hyperinflation mode.
fair enough. What about EU bailout pkg? How does this 'EU qe 1.5' figure into the calculation? I don't see helicopter man and treasury boy waiting for market tank for US qe 2 justification or any of them with stomach for the political fight to get US eq 2. Seems to me proxies must be used and qe 2 is already off the ground.
Not going to happen. That's exactly what the Japanese said. Debt is a different animal. The only way you can kill it is to make it go away and Washington doesn't want to recognize the losses.
That still won't solve our growth problem. You see the sheeple must be able to expand their credit in order to expand their purchases. We won't experience any form of inflation until the mob, I mean our government, forces the lending institutions to loan to the have nots a again.
No argument here regarding it needing to be killed. But, Bernanke and Geithner do not think that way, and certainly are not going to practice that method. They have sewn the lines of deceit and ponzi, now they have no choice but to carry it out to the fullest extent that they can, until it cannot be done anymore. You think there were a few moments when Bernie Madoff saw it crumbling, but was so far into it, he said to himself he had no choice but play it out and let the chips fall where they may. And they did eventually. Same thing happening in the FED/TRSY right now.
The only way to kill it, which would probably cause a huge WAR, would be global reset. All debts defaulted, canceled, start over. It will take a miracle for them to wake up and accept that fact.
The only problem with your strategy is that when it gets "there" you won't be able to find any gold to buy.
i wonder how long Bullard lasts in prison...
He could always turn his Chasity belt around to protect his back side. Of course, his family jewels are then exposed. Priorities man, priorities.
ROTFL
Wouldn't do him much good I don't believe, C.D.
What with the vast amount of Lock-pickers populating the prisons...
How do they say it? The fun is in the chase???
lol
A while ago, North Korea executed their top financial guy...What did he do..??
Socks didn't match.
Brings new meaning to the terms "fashion police" or "fashion Nazi".
Did anyone ask this bozo how this is supposed to help.......how is this policy prescription a game changer???? It's not.......it's a farce.....
It's not supposed to change anything. Exactly the opposite; they are running out the clock, stretching out the last act as long as they possibly can.
They have no idea what comes after epic fail, and they have no desire to find out. Their desire to not know what comes next is all that is driving them.
It's not a farce, it's fear of the unknown. And there are about 1 billion people out there counting on them every day to push back the unknown.
Too bad though, because the unknown is coming and there will be no bargaining with the outraged future and the storm of knives.
Those gold price manipulators are having a hell of a time keeping gold under $1200 today for the COMEX option expiry.
Gold keeps knocking at $1200. Resistance knocked too many times breaks down and becomes support. They better take Gold back $20 or Houston has a problem.
Gold looking strong at the end of times.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cppY-n1i79w
Yea but in the next world it gets used as paving material.
I think you have gold mistaken with 'good intentions.'
I noticed the gold war today. They really hate silver today as well.
But never fear you can trust the regulators (when they get back from their joy ride of running over whistleblowers).
its futures expiry day - quite impressive for Gold to be printing green - its bucking the trend
I think $5T is a good estimate. The most politically safe thing to buy is agency MBS, no one seems to call it monetization when they do that, but buy a UST and the market goes nuts.
The overall market for agency MBS is about $5T, BB already owns $1T+, and they probably want to leave some float outstanding, so I can see him buying another $3T, growing the balance sheet to $5T and holding it there for perpetuity.
Ghost:
Regarding MBS, I'm right there with you.
http://www.zerohedge.com/content/geographical-area-united-states-time-frame-next-18-months#comment-67930
Why don't they switch to the sand standard? It may be simpler.
Even sand is a finite resource. The Fed needs unlimited power with no restrictions what-so-ever. Two hundred twenty six septillion metric tons of sand is still a limiting factor when it comes to printing currency at the Fed.
Fxxking brilliant, and 100% true.
If you made it "particles in the universe", it still wouldn't be enough.
e^x rears its ugly head...exponentials are a bitch...
So if GS wants this money, its going to short this market WAY down from here. Being bullish will be like shooting yourself in the foot!
Will be interesting to see if that PERFECT record of no loss days continues..Whats the odds?
Stop, you're killing me.
THIS IS A "BLACKMAIL" ECONOMY.
THE NUTTY PROFESSOR:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/05/nutty-professor.html
As expected all along and that is why rates remain at 0% for such a time period. We all knew the recovery was never going to arrive but luckily the rates have not been raised so Ben will also keep rates at 0% well into 2012 in order to "foster" the recovery/bubble.
If we had strong jobs growth and econ data for consecutive months than we he would still have to keep rates at 0% just in case. If the markets and housing collapse then surely we need QE to stabilize housing and protect banks. Only when the bubble is completely reflated will rates be raised.
Heads they win tails we lose. So markets will crash until banks get their QE. As usual Americans lose again and their reward along with not earning interest on the pennies they have left is..you guessed..unaffordable housing. The elites can never allow homes and assets to become affordable for the mortals again. It makes me SICK to my stomach.
You think you are sick now? It will get worse. Just wait until the Illuminati get hyperinflation going, to totally rob the People of their wealth.
Central banking, the perfect crime.
Illuminati's lost its touch, then.
The turmoil "will probably fall short of becoming a worldwide recessionary shock," said James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in a speech delivered in London.
Bullard cited Russia's default in 1998 as a case in point.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bullard-Europes-woes-unlikely-apf-18411943...
Bullard also took this opportunity to pump US Treasuries...
I wonder what the difference is between a downturn, and, a really bad downturn: SPX at 800, or, SPX at 300?
We are 9 months into the global economic recovery and U6 is at 18%.
A legitimate downturn, which the economic numbers are starting to hint at now, would take U6 to 25-30%. A "really bad downturn", from here, would take U6 above 40%. Under either end-game scenario, the the financial markets will be in a perpetual state of suspension (= closed indefinitely) and the eventual "last tick" of the SPX will fade into the history books and no longer be relevant. Your IRA will have been confiscated and invested for you in Govt. IOU's, you will never get your principal back, but you can earn a modest 3% retirement income on your "lifetime of savings". The 6 months of emergency cash you squirreled away for a rainy day in your Money Market fund will be frozen until the markets re-open. Enjoy !
I would also like to state that I know for a fact through acquaintances that all of the big Wall Street banks are hiring like madness this summer right from college unlike last year.
Wall Street hiring trends are a classic contra-indicator.
Clearly a market top....
If the market/economy does turn down from here they will just cancel those offers. Happened before, will happen again.
No, we can't QE.
Bulltard doesn't understand that the rules of the game have changed. 15 months ago, it was OK to print money to backstop private company risk. Now that all those risks have been bound to the Feral Government, it's not OK to print money to backstop them any more.
The liquidity flood *is* the problem now.
Qu'est-ce que c'est....a "bad" downturn?
A day the squid loses $$.
QE2 will just feed The Double Whammy: Debt deflation AND raw material inflation. Today China announced concerns over spiraling food costs. Britain has inflation in the midst of deflation, a barely positive GDP and unemployment. Watch for food riots later this summer coming to a nation near you.
The risks for increasing divergence between asset deflation and cost of living/doing business inflation is growing daily as debt spirals, paper assets deflate and all assets backed by paper deflate. Hard assets on the other hand only need to stand still to inflate. As will the cost of borrowing. Or go much higher due only in part to the excess paper in the float. Hard assets will be in vogue, and if things get bad --only Hard will buy Hard--: Only gold will buy hard assets.
If mtg rates continue to rally, due to a surge in prepayments on the Fed mtg portfolio, they may want to buy some mtgs to offset that implicit tightening. If they were smart, they would just let it run off and take it as good fortune. We all know they are not smart
A sliding equity market is good for capital outflows into productive uses instead
of a big ponzi scheme... Put the money to use such as people, factories and
loans... The bigger problem for banks is the trend is downward...the repo
trade wont work.. not to mention the yield curve took a 20% whack and
will get worse..intra lending for citigroup at over a 1%....NOT GOOD!
I've got three hand guns.. 1 for each hand and a back up in my pants...
Easy, this is a family friendly site :-)
At least most people here have weed to watch the carnage with. I still go back to booze as the ultimate doomsday asset.
"If the US got into a bad downturn"
To quote Rodney Rude.
"Grandpa got burnt"
"Really how bad is it"
"Well they don't fuck around at the crematorium"