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The Fed's Rose Book Is Out: Improvement And Kool-Aid All Around
The Fed's Rose (no longer beige) Book is out. For those zombified enough to still believe any lie coming from the government, here is the summary: "Economic activity continued to improve since the last report across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts, although many Districts described the pace of growth as “modest." We refuse to spend any time reading this drivel. Link for the masochists.
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Markets didn't "buy" it. Rose colored glasses off.
Markets didn't "buy" it. Rose colored glasses off. Back to beige, blah, bummer.
Markets diving. Sorry Ben.
That 'tard they had on Bubblevision, Zane I think his name was, was a perfect demonstration on why special permits should be issued to people before they are allowed on television. He actually said (paraphrasing)
"That the good sign was an increase in lending by the banks"
Under what freaking f'ing planetary rock did this guy come from?????????
I read the stats like Tyler and there is not one single solitary statistic outside of the recent spike in home lending which shows an increase in business or consumer lending. Now that the housing price cut, er, tax credit is over with, lending is drying up at an incredible rate.
These aholes they dig up are amazing.
Yeah, Zane was his name. Disgusting. I should feed him to the snapping turtle that showed up in the
yard this morning.
oohh, thank you P.R. front men for the world's crime lords. I was sooo worried about all these nasty facts spouted by sites like ZH. Now that I have the steadying grace of your presence again I can hug my blanky close and go back to bed.
When I was child, I went to supermarket and bought a package of kool-aid. As soon as I left the store I opened the package and poured it in my mouth.
To my suprise, it was the most bitter shit I ever tasted. I soon discovered that the package contained no sugar.
HAHA! old school! I distinctly remember the same experience with Jello powder.
LOL.
They make your parents add the sugar.
Or cocoa powder. Disgusting stuff.
Well, you didn't think the Whatever-colored Book was going to contradict what Benron told the Hacks on The Hill this morning, did you?
Exactly.
jawbone...ZIRP...print
By the end of the day, can these guys really do anything else?
Nope, they can't. They got one tool in their tool box, and they're gonna beat it till it breaks.
Hitchhikers Guide: "And a big hello to all intelligent life out there. To everyone else, the secret is to bang the rocks together guys!"
When I started to read it and was about half way......
Nah, this book is best put where the sun never shines.....Banana Ben Dover.
LMAO
The Fed is right about the improving economy. Here is another excellent comment from Stefane Marion, Chief Economist at the National Bank of Canada:
U.S. Watch
A key condition to make sure that the economic recovery remains on track is to avoid a credit crunch for consumers and businesses. Fortunately, just- released data suggest that lending institutions are starting to open their doors to borrowers. In April, consumer credit edged up 0.5%, the first increase in three months. Importantly, the rise was concentrated in nonrevolving credit (two-thirds of consumer credit). As today’s Hot Chart shows, the level of such credit is closing in on its all time high. Turning to businesses, things also appear to be improving. As shown, weekly data shows that the level of commercial & industrial loans outstanding appears to be stabilizing. At the end of the day, it is important to keep in mind that credit is a lagging indicator of the economic cycle. The data only confirm that a key condition for a durable recovery is starting to fall in place.
How are they lending to anyone? Did the FICO requirements change? 70% of America has a FICO less than 600.
How is the fed about improving the economy?
Tell me again- because that is not so. Since 1913 it has been a slow slide to this oblivion.
The Fed is about making money for the private cabal of bankers who run it.
diving ECRI leading indicator > Leo talking his flaming book.
Blackbeard,
I am glad you brought the "diving" ECRI leading indicator up. Again, my buddies are all over it:
U.S. Watch
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) weekly leading index (WLI) of GDP growth in the U.S. registered a fourth decline in a row at the end of May, reaching a 43-week low. Some market participants have argued that this greatly increases the likelihood of a “double dip” scenario in the U.S. We do not agree. First, the growth rate of the WLI on a three month basis is volatile and often leads to false signals even in an expansion phase. Second, the institute is also far from drawing this conclusion: “There is no strict meaning for each value of the growth rate of the WLI…what is important is whether the move is significant according to the « 3 Ps » criteria (how pronounced, persistent and pervasive is the rise/fall compared to past cyclical moves)’’. As today’s Hot Chart shows, the growth in the smoothed WLI has decelerated to zero but this phenomenon has been observed in each of the past recoveries without any exception (green arrows). Therefore, the recent trend in the WLI does not necessarily reflect an imminent weakness in activity. In order to call a recession, the smoothed WLI needs to be negative and for a long period of time. Needless to say we prefer the slope of the yield curve as a leading indicator of a possible downturn. At +240 basis points, the odds of a double dip scenario are very low. Before crying wolf, at least give the Fed a chance to start normalizing monetary policy. Right now, real rates are still in the abyss.
+1 for anyone that believes everything they read.
A key condition to make sure that the economic recovery remains on track is to avoid a credit crunch for consumers and businesses.
I have to remember to try drinking myself sober the next time I wake from a night on the town. On Leo's and the Nat Bank of Canada's advice, of course.
Bwaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahahhackhackhackhackhahahahah. Heh heh heh hee ha ha ha HA HA *cough* ha *snort* heh...ha. "Oh, Leo, I'm bleeding from my eyes. Wooo!
What did your dog tell you this morning about the economy?
Careful WW, you can overdo anything, including laughter and joy.
Wife of WW to judge. "I don't know what happened your honor. One minute he was on that damn Zero Hock and the next he's foaming at the mouth and convulsing. I told him 2 weeks ago if it happened again, I'm not giving mouth to mouth. It took me 3 days to get rid of that foam stench the last time."
Leo, your Canadian cluelessness and kneejerk deference to authority is showing again.
Did The Crown tell you to spout this particular clot of bullshit?
leo,
considering the bind that they're (treserve, etc.) in...
and the consistent negative revisions to virtually all stats...
why would you put any credence in much anything these guys are saying?
you'd think after three years (30?) of this kind of BS, the trend might be noticed.
BTW - i like solars. i just don't like gub'mint and/or MSM statistics much.
without being a defeatist, i don't think we sheeple have effective access to the real/raw information that we'd like. i also don't think "the truth" is (or ever will be) available to us, until it's aged 5+ years and finished being revised for today's agenda.
that's probably why you get such a rash of heat from these ZH regulars... your conclusions would be correct if the data were worth a damn.
keep it up tho'. your voice and jpegs are welcome in my book.
leo,
Consumer credit was up for one reason, march was revised dramatically down. give it up.
No worry's mate. Bennys hot air intervention is lasting just about as long as the SNB interventions in the euro. About 8 hours max.
Market is fading Benny...
bernanke and co. - R.I.P
as an aside - i am a ZH junky. it is my cocaine. i had major withdrawls this morning. i was shaking and sweaty displaying dillusional tendancies!! it was awful......what say you?
I hear ya -- gloom and doom is addicting
I just want it to be over with. It's like watching the show 24 only it is happening 24 x 7. Since I have discovered the site I think I have been here most every day reading a good portion of the articles.
not only is it a slo-mo tsunami (deer in headlights) for me, but the level of wit and sarcasm wrapped around these concepts and acronyms... can't get enough.
definitely not healthy.
I just finished a great book: The Great Depression by McElvaine. It's a seminal historical look at 1929 - 1940. It is dense and fascinating. Extremely well written and accessible.
We should all really educate ourselves to the rhymes with history. I know we all have great quips and know some finance. But the bigger context of history is super interesting.
PS, I'm cheap and picked the book up at the LIBRARY
When the Gubermint calls the Depression we are in a "recovery" it's time to name this thing:
The Big Lie?
The Big Ben ?
Crooks about to be caught?
The Big Lebowski for real?
Completely agree. Great book. A bit heavy-handed on the dated, anti-Reagan references but otherwise outstanding.
And who can't laugh at jokes about everyone's favorite corporate spokesperson-cum-PoTUS.
If you liked that one, better read John Kenneth Galbraith's "The Great Crash, 1929". The guy has a very dry sense of humor
I can't believe the unmitigated shit that comes out of Benwah's mouth during "testimony". Contained... green shoots... modest impact... continued recovery... on track. The guy is a fucking evil dwarf.
We need to understand the game of denial. Ben is telling people what they want to hear. Or at least what some of the people want to hear. As long as the "authorities" are saying the sun is out, no one needs to think about umbrellas. Mostly it's about plausible deniability. "Well daddy said I could."
Our culture has devolved into infantile responses. As long as Daddy says it's OK, it's OK. Reality isn't what we might think it is, it's what the higher power, our authorities, says it is. As simplistic as this might sound to you and I, it's how the game of denial and global abuse of power and grand theft larnecy are played.
Angry peasants with pitch forks and some neck stretching for the "authorities" ought to keep it real... Daddy said we could.
I see three hearing groups in a simplistic way.
---
On a side note: fifteen plus five equals 20
+++ on 1,2 and 3
treserve dow math puts "fifteen plus five" somewheres near 36,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gy%C3%B6rgy_D%C3%B3zsa
Just remember the number one rule, when it comes to hyper-inflation taking hold of an economy.
Governments will often try to disguise the true rate of inflation through a variety of techniques. These can include the following:
Now ask yourself, every single one of these apply to our current stae of affairs.
Check, check, check and check.
What do you want him to say? Go to a website called ZH and then slice your wrists? LOL!
When the TeeVee says a Cat 5 Hurricane is about to hit land you don't slit your wrists; you take you G.O.O.D. bag, loved ones, rifle and get the hell out of dodge.
Hiding one's head under the covers when a tornado is approaching is not going to make it magically go away.
Leo, you are truly, completely, utterly, beyond all measure pathetic.
akaka,
Pathetic is people waiting for Armageddon. It ain't ever happening, but if you'd like to prepare, go ahead and slice your wrists first.
No, you ridiculous and disingenuous asswipe, "pathetic" is pro-establishment shills like yourself who cannot see or imagine any possible reality beyond the continuation of the corrupt and failing status-quo, and who lash out in their insecurity and automatically label any other (vastly more likely) outcome as "Armageddon" because they refuse to acknowledge the unpleasant (but hardly end-of-the-world) economic and financial reality which awaits, and which quite possibly spells the end of their high-rolling and high-living lifestyle.
Despite your absurd and hyperbolic fear-mongering, Leo, life WILL go on after the current financial and monetary system collapses, just as it did dozens or hundreds of times in the past during similar circumstances in many nations around the world. It may, however, in fact be "Armageddon" for the parasitical and sociopathic elites who used that system to milk wealth from actual producers and savers, and for their hangers-on and lackies --- such as yourself.
Ask your shrink to increase the dosage.
Fuck You Leo.
And once again, great job of avoiding criticism and deflecting the truth.
You are nothing but a turd in the punchbowl here, and contribute NOTHING of any value to this site. Your sole purpose here seems to be to antagonize, flame and troll up acrimony and well-justified outrage with your patently ridiculous pro-status quo ravings.
Read your comments and see the research I provided above. Think you're way off psychologically. Again, ask your shrink to increase the dosage.
Ah yes, your "research".
If I go out and grab any purposely obfuscating, wildly biased, and patently ridiculous propaganda supporting the government's rote and hackneyed "green shoots" line on the economy, and the self-serving lies of the US Treasury, Federal Reserve and tottering financial system, and post it here to virtually universal scorn and contempt, will that make me as valuable a contributor to ZeroHedge as you?
Face it, Leo: you belong on CNBC, not here. Nobody that I can see is buying your intelligence-insulting, reality-denying bullshit here.
"Pathetic is people waiting for Armageddon. It ain't ever happening"
oh my.
i'm sure the folks on the trains to Auschwitz (and the natives watching them go by) had very little clue they were going to their deaths. that detail wasn't mentioned on the e-tickets.
you ignore the historic relationship between governments-under-duress and populace at your peril - be it economic or ideological, the organism called government has but one primary interest, and that has everything to do with survival and little to do with the interests of its citizenry.
folks who know history have a much stronger frame-of-reference than those that don't.
a pension is one form of insurance. food in the cellar is another. i hope i can trust both, but only have to use the first.
that said, i wish you (all) good health and distance from chaos, should it occur.
Do we really wish everybody well? It might be like a man-made evolution and repair the gene pool if everyone depending on the government is suddenly left to fend for themselves.
oops - did I say that? Sorry, I'm disgusted and cranky, no more posting for me today.
People, made to be responsible for themselves?
Why, that's positively EVIL! Don't you know that we are all our brother's keeper? You know, "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need". Isn't that the American way (now)? Isn't that why we have government --- to maximize our society's compassion? And what about the CHILDREN?!
(Did my sarcasm come through in all that?)
while we can certainly create our own buffers, sometimes the hurricane just happens to go "over there" ...
my wish is that when luck *can* benefit folks, that it *will*. especially most of the fine folks that bother to think out of the box and be skeptical of everything. most ZH readers qualify by virtue of their presence. (save the occasional troll)
akak, for those who stand in front of moving trains...
as my brother once said: "quantum criminals always get convicted..."
maybe better i would have said, "may your ass-coverage be sufficient to the situation"
You're right, Leo. Ben didn't make the rules. He's simply the little fudgepacker who's job it is to carry them out Someday the douche will wake up and realize what his legacy is. Totally unfair though. If Bendover wasn't in charge, somebody else would be doing the exact same thing.
I remember Bush telling me to go out and spend and travel after 9/11. Didn't sound right. I think that was when we jumped the shark. "We're going to war so go out and have yourself a damnfuckinggoodtime, America!" That was my first clue that we were screwed. The second came in 2008 when he cut those stimulus checks. Excuse me? Why is Uncle Sammie borrowing money to cut me a check.
I knew then that the game was over. Obama had one shot to use his bully pulpit to tell Americans the truth and ask for sacrifice and instead, he pissed another $5-8 trillion away, depending on whose numbers you believe. He blew it, probably because his banking lords demanded it of him.
I understand why everyone's POed. I'm POed too, but to dump on poor Leo for daring to speak the truth, well, if you think about it that's EXACTLY why government is afraid to tell us what's really ahead. The good news though, if you can call it that, is most of us already know.
You're alright Leo. Hang in there, Dude.
You're right, Leo. Ben didn't make the rules. He's simply the little fudgepacker who's job it is to carry them out Someday the douche will wake up and realize what his legacy is. Totally unfair though. If Bendover wasn't in charge, somebody else would be doing the exact same thing.
I remember Bush telling me to go out and spend and travel after 9/11. Didn't sound right. I think that was when we jumped the shark. "We're going to war so go out and have yourself a damnfuckinggoodtime, America!" That was my first clue that we were screwed. The second came in 2008 when he cut those stimulus checks. Excuse me? Why is Uncle Sammie borrowing money to cut me a check.
I knew then that the game was over. Obama had one shot to use his bully pulpit to tell Americans the truth and ask for sacrifice and instead, he pissed another $5-8 trillion away, depending on whose numbers you believe. He blew it, probably because his banking lords demanded it of him.
I understand why everyone's POed. I'm POed too, but to dump on poor Leo for daring to speak the truth, well, if you think about it that's EXACTLY why government is afraid to tell us what's really ahead. The good news though, if you can call it that, is most of us already know.
They have to put a positive spin on things, it is mandatory of course. However I wonder that even with a return to confidence how much credit growth to small business and the consumer is possible given the already high level of borrowings out there.
It reminds me of the South Park episode where everyone was puking up their own shit. It's symbolic at least. :)
Yes, quite humorous.
Like most jokes, there is a lot of truth in them.
Kramerica: the land of endless hype, b.s., delusions, alter-world experiences, oh and most importantly fiat!
This is the first mention of shadow inventory on banks' balance sheet (at least recently).
moved!
What about Brown Book as in total shit?
blah blah blah blah sightly better.. blah blah blah blah blah moderately improved.. blah blah blah blah blah showing modest improvement... blah blah blah blah blah blah.. gradually improving... blah blah blah blah
and oh yeah.. jobs will suck forever.
If you enjoyed the beige book,
there is a sequel:
http://sites.google.com/site/earthdeception
I knew it. That explains everything.
I'm from California.
That koolaid needs to be aged in some oak barrels... before being released to the market.
EURO chart indicates a move soon :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Bloomberg is running a story how rail traffic for waste hauling is rising in an indication the economy is recoverying.
As an owner of a landfill, I can tell you this is total BS. The railroads are now hauling the New York trash I once received by truck. Trucking trash from New York to western PA got very expensive with diesel fuel prices doubling in the last six years...And, trash trucks travel empty one way.
Thank you for explaining that, I was getting a little Cog Dis on that. Makes perfect sense and RR's are dying for biz. I was thinking because everyone had to throw the shit in their houses out when they got foreclosed on. : )
I super appreciate your insight on this. Makes sense.
Rose is my favorite color since it looks like Kool Aid
If you guys really want to know the condition this country is in, look no farther then the comments on this article.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100609/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_economy
Don't read the comments to long or your head will explode. By my estimates, 60% of people who posted buys this pile of steaming crap! It scares me that these people are just like the ones in my family and my neighbors when I try to talk to them about the economy.
Thank you ZH for having a clue what you post. I don't know everything about the economy, but I am getting smarter by the day from most of you.
You know I read it in a magazine Oh ba,ba,ba bennie and his bets..... Why does anybody even listen to this guy anylonger? . http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw
The spin about oil clean-up workers taking the place of tourists was as shiny and pure BS as I've heard in many many years. Somewhere the spirit of George Carlin is smiling.
RUT RO!!
Bankruptcy filings are nearing the record 2 million of 2005, when a new law took effect that was aimed at curbing abuse of the system. Filings could reach 1.7 million this year, says law professor Robert Lawless, but few experts believe that debtors are now gaming the system.
Instead, concern exists about a growing number of Americans who need bankruptcy protection but cannot get any benefit from it or simply cannot afford to file. As their financial problems worsen, that hurts everyone because it can hinder the economic turnaround.
"It's shocking that we are back to the 2005 level," says Katherine Porter, associate professor of law at the University of Iowa. "And the filing rate doesn't even begin to count the depth of the financial pain."
Bankruptcy laws changed in 2005 because filings skyrocketed and credit card companies and banks wanted to weed out deadbeat borrowers. The law made it harder — more expensive and more restrictive — for individuals to file Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which erases most debts.
Instead of seeking protection from bankruptcy, a number of debt-laden Americans have gone into a "shadow economy," or informal bankruptcy, according to some experts.
The signs are there: Student loan defaults and home foreclosures are rising, and bank card loan defaults have increased from 7.7% in March to 9.1% in April, according to S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. But during the same two months, bankruptcy filings fell by 4%.
Bankruptcy is supposed to provide a fresh start to people who are in serious financial distress. But only a fraction are filing, Porter says.
'My future is gone'
Carmen Gardiner, 25, a 2007 graduate of Louisiana State University, is weighed down by her private student loans. Her debt is now about $80,000, and her monthly payments are more than $600. Gardiner's undergraduate degree is in psychology. She lives with her husband, who is still in college, and earns $13 an hour at a call center in Atlanta. They have a 6-month-old daughter.
The World is playing "Financial Twister": Left foot greece, right hand debt, left cheek sovereign default, etc.
When the mathematics of compound interest are ignored, REALITY WILL BITE SOMEONE, BIG TIME!