This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Fibozachi Forecast: Week of April 19

Short Trade Candidates
WYNN: Wynn Resorts (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)
Current Price: 83.82
Candlestick Patterns: None (almost Dark Cloud Cover)
WYNN rallied nearly 50% over just 7 weeks before registering a key reversal bar last week that may lead to increased selling pressure over the next 2-6 weeks. As a component of the Casino and Gambling sector, WYNN sports exceptional volatility that can lead to very strong price moves with minimal consolidation. While the 78.00 level should provide some support, it is likely that WYNN will eventually fall into the 70.00 - 75.00 support zone.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 82.90
Target (Short-Term): 75.00
Target (Long-Term): 70.25
Stop-Loss: 87.50 or higher
Potential Risk: $4.60
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $7.90
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $12.65
Reward: Risk Ratio: 1.7 & 2.8
WFR: MEMC Electronic Materials (Short-Term to Long-Term)
Current Price: 16.25
Candlestick Patterns: Shooting Star
Another 7-week rally may have ended last week, as WFR registered a shooting star candlestick pattern while filling a gap that was created back in October '09. It is likely that the 17.00 level will provide formidable resistance that sends price back towards 14.00 - 15.20 over the next 2-4 weeks. Extended weakness would test the recent double bottom surrounding the 11.50 - 12.00 levels, which offers a great reward: risk ratio over the long-term.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 15.98
Target (Short-Term): 14.00
Target (Long-Term): 12.00
Stop-Loss: 17.05 or higher
Potential Risk: $1.07
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $1.98
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $3.98
Reward: Risk Ratio: 1.9 & 3.7
LTD: Limited Brands (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)
Current Price: 27.07
Candlestick Patterns: None (almost a Shooting Star)
All rallies must eventually come to an end and, after closing higher for 12 consecutive weeks, LTD's price action appears to be nearing inflection. The long upper shadow on the weekly candle indicates that bullish momentum may finally have exhausted itself, after more than a 60% gain over the last 3 months. LTD has now come into prior resistance at 28.00 - 29.00, which significantly decreases the chance of a continued move higher. This is a good example of "selling into strength" or "feeding the ducks when they're quacking."
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 26.56
Target (Short-Term): 24.00
Target (Long-Term): 21.16
Stop-Loss: 28.06 or higher
Potential Risk: $1.50
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $2.56
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $5.40
Reward: Risk Ratio: 1.7 & 3.6
HOT: Starwood Hotels (Short-Term to Long-Term)
Current Price: 48.29
Candlestick Patterns: None (almost a Bearish Harami)
Prior to last week's key reversal bar that halted upward momentum, HOT enjoyed a 10-week rally that carried shares roughly 50% higher. While last week's candle would have been a Bearish Haramicandlestick pattern if it's high had not exceeded that of last week (we only use strict formulas), the underlying concept and character of price action remain similar. HOT actually managed to close each week at, or very close to, it's weekly high ... this indicates that it performed very well during all end-of-week Friday sessions. Last week witnessed the opposite, with shares dropping on Friday to close the session just 17 cents above the weekly low. From here out, we will be looking for continued weakness and for the 50.00 level to continually appear further and further away from HOT's rearview mirror.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 48.12
Target (Short-Term): 43.00
Target (Long-Term): 37.00
Stop-Loss: 50.63 or higher
Potential Risk: $2.51
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $5.12
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $11.12
Reward: Risk Ratio: 2 & 4.4
CLF: Cliffs Natural Resources (Intermediate-Term to Long-Term)
Current Price: 70.24
Candlestick Patterns: Bearish Engulfing & Tweezer Top
After last week's strong sell-off Bearish Engulfing and Tweezer Top patterns registered on CLF, which may be the beginning of an upcoming drop in shares over the next 4-10 weeks. The main reason we do not normally establish positions after most Bearish Engulfing patterns is because it forces one to use a larger stop-loss than usual. However, we are making an exception here for CLFbecause of how much "free space" it has to fall (no prior swing highs above 55.40 to provide support). This enables us to still pre-define a solid reward: risk ratio based on given entry, stop-loss, and profit targets. CLF also sports a higher beta than most issues, so an appetizer of volatility could be immediately followed by forceful price action.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move below 69.77
Target (Long-Term): 55.40
Stop-Loss: 76.18 or higher
Potential Risk: $6.41
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $14.37
Reward: Risk Ratio: 2.2
Long Trade Candidates
VRTX: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)
Current Price: 39.99
Candlestick Patterns: None
Vertex has trended both up and down in almost picture-perfect fashion since November '09, allowing for some fantastic swing trade setups that have consistently worked. Interestingly, VRTX has done the exact opposite of the markets (and most stocks) over the last 5 weeks; selling-off for 4 consecutive weeks with a bullish key reversal to the upside after last week's strong close. If VRTXholds here, it will continue a series of higher highs since gapping up during the first week of November. However, be aware that this is much too big of a gap to remain unfilled ... price will eventually close it over the long-term. If the clean trending continues, we expect VRTX to rally up and fail at the 44.00 again before finally rolling over.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 40.22
Target (Short-Term): 44.00
Stop-Loss: 38.21 or lower
Potential Risk: $2.01
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $3.78
Reward: Risk Ratio: 1.9
SPWRA: SunPower (Short-Term - Intermediate-Term)
Current Price: 18.29
Candlestick Patterns: None (almost a Doji)
SunPower, like most energy stocks, has not rallied with the rest of the markets over the past 6 months. Instead, it has dropped nearly 50% from its October '09 swing high of 33.97 (which failed 3 cents below the 7/31/09 swing high of 34.00). After 4 consecutive weeks of narrow-range consolidation, the obvious play here is to watch for a constructive 2-3 pattern to bring about a retracement bounce back up into 20.00 - 22.00. A body-to-body (rather than wick-to-wick) trendline has now had 3 touches/ failures, so a break of this trendline to the upside should result in a small rally that can produce some nice trading gains. Since last week's low of 17.93 held above the 2/26/10 low of 17.82, price action this week will be especially important to note; either a blatant FNL (failed new low) is plotting, which will give us a perfect level for our stop-loss or SPWRA will simply continue to coil lower into the mid 17's in the days ahead.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 18.72
Target (Short-Term): 20.00
Target (Long-Term): 22.19
Stop-Loss: 17.81 or lower
Potential Risk: $0.91
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $1.28
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $3.47
Risk: Reward Ratio: 1.4 & 3.8
OREX: Orexigen Therapeutics (Short-Term to Intermediate-Term)
Current Price: 5.65
Candlestick Patterns: Doji & High Wave
Though OREX is not a very well-known stock, it meets the volume and market cap requirements of our scan filters and it's current technical profile is very intriguing from a bullish perspective. Last week's wide-range doji registered on 200% - 300% of average weekly volume (2-3 million shares), while also filling a long-standing gap that was created back on 7/24/09. And although price action within OREX exhibits a tendency to drift sideways, it also tends to provide double-digit percentage movement every 3-4 weeks. While a firm upside target would be 7.00, the process of getting there may be somewhat sluggish. OREX must first penetrate downward sloping trendlines of resistance that traverse round number 6 before a clean bull move towards 7 takes place.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 5.87
Target (Short-Term): 7.00
Stop-Loss: 5.38 or lower (trade is only voided if price drops below 4.94)
Potential Risk: $0.49
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $1.13
Reward: Risk Ratio: 2.3
BGZ: Large Cap Bear 3x (Short-Term to Long-Term)
Current Price: 13.05
Candlestick Patterns: Doji
Another inverse ETF for those without the ability to short, BGZ is actually offering better entry and stop-loss levels than most non-leveraged ETFs such as SPY. BGZ managed to close last week at 13.05, the exact closing price of the prior week as well ('matching closes'). While last week's doji candle closed just 4 cents above the open, it illustrated a diminishing amount of bearish pressure. After 8 weeks of a sell-off that almost cut BGZ shares in half, this trade setup offers a fantastic reward: risk ratio (leveraged ETFs often do when correctly employed for 'short' periods of time) that greatly surpasses what could be achieved using similar ETFs due to explicitly pre-defined risk.
Entry: Immediate (with daily confirmation) or with a move above 13.25
Target (Short-Term): 15.44
Target (Long-Term): 20.28
Stop-Loss: 12.37 or lower
Potential Risk: $0.88
Potential Reward (Short-Term): $2.19
Potential Reward (Long-Term): $7.03
Reward: Risk Ratio: 2.5 & 8
Disclosure: no position in the securities mentioned at the time of writing or publication. During any given session, we may trade any instrument bi-directionally.
- advertisements -











great stuff , thx
The doctors go further on to say that Obama should give up the cigarettes and switch to using a vaporizer for his medical grade marijuana to increase his level of THC intake while causing minimal damage to the lungs. The quitting cigarettes is a no brainer. What kind of role model is he wanting to be with the American public? The marijuana/alcohol trade-off is a more "sticky" issue.
Studies conducted by http://www.saferdenver.org/ have proven that the consumption of marijuana is MUCH more safer than the consumption of alcohol. No one has ever died from marijuana alone, and domestic and violent disputes often involve alcohol. Based on these findings, the citizenry of Denver voted in referendum I-100 to legalize the use of marijuana back in 2005.
Not that much of these details matter much to President Obama. It's not like he is beating his wife or getting DUIs. But some peace activists say that the President could do more to bolster his anti-war image, and puffing of a bong in front of the camera could be just the ticket. While other activists worry, what if Obama takes it personally when the green back breaks the buck and the country collapses that he may become "trigger happy" with the nukes if he continues on with the binge drinking.
He might think that it was the revenge of the south to put him in the White House when the country is about to go bankrupt, and start firing missiles like a mad man. But none of this is his fault, as it was set in motion years ago by the corporations and bankers and sold out DC politicians. Obama's therapist states he may better off dealing with these stressful events better by smoking some medical grade marijuana than reaching for the next beer.
His family will be safer, the world will be safer, and he will be healthier and happier. The president is pretty healthy otherwise, eats modest portions and exercises regularly. He is an avid basketball player and golfer.
Although he looks 10 years older after getting into the White House, that is mostly from the burden of knowing he reports to the New World Order and knowing Israel is moments away from blasting Iran into the Straights of Gomez. He knows the pressure will be on him after just winning the Nobel Peace Prize out of no where and surprising most of the civilized world.
The world will be watching to see if the President displays his peacefull playful side and ignore the middle east, or will he turn into another "Bush" blasting away imaginary enemies to make himself look good?"
The Wall ST Onion says "yea" to the President toking off the pipe and staying off the booze! Peace Patrick the Painter
No way on BGZ. OREX, looks dam good.
BGZ will stop out Tues or Wed.
Hope the shareholder suit against OREX officers is a non-starter.
I agree. BGZ was a great buy last Thursday. Today, it's terrible. It hasn't had a good sustained run-up since early February.
BGZ shows every sign of having peaked. This is not a good time to buy an inverse leveraged ETF.
All my proprietary technical indicators are telling me to stay bullish for now. The Friday slide and Monday consolidation most likely set the market up for the next leg up.
How does the Fed pumping another $50 billion into the market week of April 19 play into this? None of the charts, forecast, technicals, analyst reports, etc. means squat when the Fed/counterfeiters simply load up their surrogate PPIP companies and other trading desk with 0% non recourse cash to BUY BUY BUY to keep the market going up, up, up - Between Sec. Paulsons letter regarding writing off losses for the sake of the market and Maiden Lane - its all a fraud.....
No matter how well or how poorly you fared last week, imagine how the guy who sold these puts for a penny at 10:38 felt just 40 minutes later after they had touched 14.
GS common & GS 170 April P's 1-minute comparison