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First Fed Invoice For Bailing Out Europe Is In: The Damage - $9.2 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The first bill to US taxpayers for volunteering to bail out Europe is in. It appears in the past week the New York Fed executed an FX swap with the ECB for $9.2 billion notional of FX swaps. As we reported earlier by demonstrating the lack of bids for the BOE's dollar repo operation, only the ECB is (currently) in need of dollars. Yes America, in addition to the IMF contribution of ~$50 billion, with each passing week you will see more and more billions of dollars collateralized by a rapidly devaluing foreign currency serve as the backstop for your currency.

And below, fresh from the just released H.4.1 statement is the offical settled amount as of May 12: $9.2 billion.

And lastly don't forget - this extra Fed "asset" is now a liability in the form of excess reserves, which are calmly collecting 0.25% for the benefit of some Wall Street banks.

In other total BS news courtesy of the Fed, the notional value of Maiden Lane I holdings is now at a few year+ high.

 

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Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:15 | 349994 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Might as well add another 10$ Billion to that for this week as well, because the EUR is about to see 1.24

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:20 | 350013 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Do i get a gyro with that?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:36 | 350044 WaterWings
Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:45 | 350089 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Here's a review of the trailer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7qCCJDLH6k

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:30 | 350355 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

When do I get my 'gratis' night with a EuroSlut?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:27 | 350607 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/13/wheres-the-oil-your-gover_n_575...

The oil spill is officially 10x worse than they said it was.  You guys were right about that too!!!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:34 | 350622 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

One exXon Valdez every 4 days...

I'm kinda very sad right now.

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 23:56 | 350937 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

And I cannot get my solution to the right ears. Aaargh.

Vol (volatility, volume, volcano, voluptuous...nope, scratch the last) it's all about the Vol!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:17 | 350001 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Containing contagion is getting expensive.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:48 | 350102 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Containing contagion is spreading contagion.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:55 | 350113 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

So I should stop picking at it? But it's soooo itchy.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:56 | 350419 Thunder44
Thunder44's picture

Yes, It appears that the more they do the worse it's getting.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:03 | 350432 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Pretty much every centrally planned economy ends the same way.  The "experts" manage it into the ground.  Oh Adam Smith, where art thou?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:10 | 350553 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Containing contagion is going contango!

ATTN ALL:

Zazzle store is closed. Made $200 profit in two short weeks! Had a few copyright warnings with Ponzinomics for Dummies and then I violated copyright after not knowing that the Euro Bailout that our good friend WilliamBanzai7 posted was a Monty Python image. My bad.

It might be back and then again it might not. All who ordered will receive their products (except the one that bought the Euro Bail Shirt).

So, thanks to all of you for your support--not for me but for ZH. That was some serious gross sales to make that much in so little time with just a post here and there to the store. That Timmay mug sold like hotcakes.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:42 | 350650 CD
CD's picture

Thank you for your efforts on ZH's behalf.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 22:55 | 350871 MaxPower
MaxPower's picture

So THIS is why Taleb recommended a Law degree. A shame, really. Nice products...

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 23:19 | 350901 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Thanks, I just didn't know the picture...I know the law.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 01:44 | 351042 MaxPower
MaxPower's picture

Hey Howard,

Mea culpa. My snarkiness was actually aimed at Taleb's assertion that Law degrees are what's needed to address some of our present... issues?

Poor phrasing on my part, not aimed in your direction at all.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:19 | 350005 chet
chet's picture

"The first bill to US taxpayers for volunteering to bail out Europe is in"

Wait, I don't remember the volunteering part.  Was it while I was in the bathroom?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:22 | 350018 bada boom
bada boom's picture

Nope, the rest of the world just took a few steps back.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:25 | 350029 Postal
Postal's picture

We were "voluntold."

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:47 | 350098 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

+1

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:18 | 350007 sysin3
sysin3's picture

Do we get a nice seaside villa on Capri with that ?   We could time-share it out.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:20 | 350010 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Wow... we all get to see where the 3 Euros per American will get us.

My guess is... not too far.

Thanks, again, Ben.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:24 | 350023 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

I think it's about $30/American. Hey, that's more than most Americans have saved for retirement!!! Have a heart, Assetman!!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:27 | 350035 Assetman
Assetman's picture

My bad... I did forget the "0"... and yes, I have no heart.

Maybe a name change to Tin Man is in order. ;)

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:28 | 350040 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Haha. Hey, most people here would have to borrow that amount in between paychecks!! I think Steve Jobs got their last paycheck....or was it Goldman Sachs....

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 02:03 | 351057 Quantum Noise
Quantum Noise's picture

Oh, you fat finger...

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:24 | 350028 MisesFTW
MisesFTW's picture

Nice find! +1000

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:27 | 350037 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Always liked that redhead.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:58 | 350423 Thunder44
Thunder44's picture

That could be one of the funniest clips on the state of the economy yet.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 22:11 | 350797 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Lulz, DL!    Empty suitcase of money.  thanks for this.  I laughed so hard my wife was annoyed.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:22 | 350016 mtguy
mtguy's picture

I distinctly remember telling Timmy and Benny-boy 'NO'. They must have turned right around and asked their mother. -Bitch!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:33 | 350050 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

+1 LOL'd on that one!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:37 | 350062 EyesWise Shut
EyesWise Shut's picture

"The Damage - $9.2 Billion"

I don't understand why you state this. The ECB will repay the USD in about three months, so where is the damage? Pleas explain.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:39 | 350070 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

What exactly are you expecting them to pay with?  U.S. Taxpayers should demand the payment be made in gold or silver not more fiat euro dolleurs.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:01 | 350124 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

A swap is a loan with the borrower's currency as collateral. Unless you believe the Euro is going to zero in the next three months, I don't see how the whole 9.2 billion is at risk.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:24 | 350597 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Because hidden in it is actually a hair cut for us...maybe thats why. They pay us back with money they printed.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:39 | 350071 Cow
Cow's picture

I need some of what you are smoking

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:11 | 350151 Riley Wilde
Riley Wilde's picture

While I understand the uproar for many of the things the Fed has done, I do not understand why the currency swaps are so contentious. This is simply a USD loan from the US central bank to the European central bank. If the ECB can't repay this loan then there are more serious issues to be worrying about than the few billion lent. Why are Zero Hedge (and Alan Grayson and the like) so against the FX swaps?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:00 | 350548 Duuude
Duuude's picture

"Few billion"

WTF

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:16 | 350581 mephisto
mephisto's picture

Last time this happened the swp notional got up to the hundreds of billions.

This time we have a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis, rather than a banking crisis. So in FX land things could get much worse. In some scenarios, like Germany leaving the Eurozone, Europe can bankrupt itself trying to defend its currency.  

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 03:09 | 365150 Riley Wilde
Riley Wilde's picture

Thanks, mephisto. I also read a good discussion of the risks here:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/05/mosler-feds-currency-swaps-%E2%80...

Some will argue that these objections are misplaced, that there is “no risk” in the Fed’s exposure to the ECB. But that is inaccurate. While the risk is low, “low risk” is not the same as “no risk”, particularly given the concerns about the future of the Eurozone.

The risk is the ECB might not pay the loan back, and if they don’t, functionally the Fed has no recourse, as for all practical purposes the loan is unsecured. The ECB borrows the dollars from the Fed and lends them to its member banks who post collateral with the ECB (not with the Fed) so the ECB appears reasonably well secured. Except for two things- the collateral is denominated in euro so in a Euro collapse the collateral loses value, and it accepts relatively low quality collateral, including unsecured bank debt which banks can generate at will and could also prove worthless in a Euro collapse.

The risk is more than miniscule. If the Eurozone breaks up, the ECB probably goes away as well, and the Fed is left with no counterparty. The national governments in the Eurozone do not guarantee the ECB, and the Fed’s ‘collateral,’ a Euro deposit held at the ECB in its name, will either be gone and/or worth less, and in any case only usable by giving the ECB instructions as to what to do with hit, hoping they will honor those instructions. And it may not even be possible at that point. (Now there is a scenario in which the weaker nations leave the Eurozone, leaving Germany, the Benelux countries, and France in, which would result in a stronger Euro. But that is one of many possible endgames).

The ECB’s only asset of value is a claim on a percentage of the gold of the member nations. But again, in a breakup, it would be doubtful that would be useful as a means of paying off the Fed.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:11 | 350574 mephisto
mephisto's picture

Dont think of it as a swap, think of it as a loan.

With no collateral posted back to the US.

A loan to, lets say, a subprime borrower (Sarkozy is sure, really really sure, that his EUR house is worth much more than the value of the loan, but he has a bit of a debt problem).

Now what could go wrong with that?

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:38 | 350068 Cow
Cow's picture

Taxation without representation

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:41 | 350077 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I tought it would be more... the FED is getting greedy I think.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:42 | 350084 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

I bailed out Europe and all I got was this lousy deficit.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:47 | 350096 Tripps
Tripps's picture

but i thought the fed was private...

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:50 | 350106 bada boom
bada boom's picture

Just the gains, the losses are public.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:47 | 350097 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Hey, if all you guys are going to do is complain about the Fed's massive transfer of wealth-- after all that good transparency Bennie Mae has provided-- well, then, they may just do this in secret. ;)

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:50 | 350105 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

phhhhhhhttt.. Benny boy sprinkles that much on his rice krispies in the morning.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:50 | 350107 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The higher our deficits and spending go....

Our currency accelerates even further into Outer Space.

So who cares what our "tab" is for the next "convulsion"??

LOL...

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:57 | 350112 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Indeed -- it's the hostess with the mostest -- go DX, go!

(What was it I said about parabolic moves in gold?)

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:39 | 350497 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

That's because Trichet is schooling his master Bernanke on competitive devaluation.

"the falcon becomes the falconer"

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:26 | 350603 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Robo maybe you should post the 20 year or 30 year dxy to paint a more honest picture. The dollar is surging right now, just like a kid who eats candy, runs around, and then collapses after a 30 mins dead asleep.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 21:50 | 350765 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Except that he's a big fat kid with diabetes.

And all his insulin (gold) was sold out from under him and replaced with sugar water (tungsten).

That nap isn't going to end well.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:59 | 350119 tecno242
tecno242's picture

meanwhile.. Europeans still think Americans are fat, lazy, obnoxious dumbasses who they hate.

Give em more money!.. i love people who insult me and hate me!

 

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 23:00 | 350877 MaxPower
MaxPower's picture

Fat? Check.

Lazy? Check.

Obnoxious? Check.

Dumbasses? Check.

While I am in agreement with you over US participation in this bailout, I'm merely hoping to point out that they may be right about all the points you mentioned above. Perhaps you can build a better case on different data points?

Good luck.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 16:59 | 350121 john_connor
john_connor's picture

More Fed asset confiscations of those not in the "club":

Midwest Banc Holdings likely to fail Friday

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Midwest Banc Holdings Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!mbhi/quotes/nls/mbhi (MBHI 0.18, -0.04, -16.28%) will likely fail and be placed into Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. receivership late Friday because of undercapitalization, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Thursday from the bank holding company. The bank, which has $3.18 billion in assets and $2.42 billion in deposits, said that the Federal Reserve Bank rejected its capital plan March 25 and that it does not expect to reach capital requirements by the May 13 Prompt Corrective Action Directive deadline. Shares of Midwest Bank fell 2.3% to 21 cents a share in after-hours activity following a 17.3% decline on the day.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:03 | 350130 Bow Tie
Bow Tie's picture

the piigs are good for it, with interest. honestly.

:0

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:05 | 350135 stockfish
stockfish's picture

I might be reading it wrong, but the numbers in the snapshot does not match the numbers

in the link. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/hist/h41hist5.txt

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:06 | 350138 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Why don't we just give them the Wanker's APPL

Pretty sure he bought more today at that attractive price, after the encouraging jobless claim report.

Voluntold him.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:15 | 350166 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Does anyone know if these contributions to the IMF are voted on in Congress?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:20 | 350180 tecno242
tecno242's picture

Nope.

Bernanke can do whatever he wants with FX swaps.. per his vague rules of providing liquidity.

Same deal as no congressional approval to buy 1.2 trillion of MBS.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:41 | 350501 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Also, regarding the IMF, our dictator stated in a signing statement that he was not bound by Congressional oversight in regards to IMF contributions.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:22 | 350182 stockfish
stockfish's picture

Again: the numbers do not match. It´s a long way from the 9205 in the jpg in the headline of this post, to the 1315 in the fed page which is linked to. Error, misreading, number game…?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:35 | 350210 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Link was to table 5, which is average. Link fixed to table 13 which is end of period.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:47 | 350259 stockfish
stockfish's picture

Thanks. But strange nonetheless. Looking at the swaps, in both tables, nothing has happened since mid February. What averages are we talking about?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:23 | 350188 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Joy to the World,
the helicopter is come!
Let earth receive her clownbux;
Let every heart prepare room,
And Greece and Portugal sing,
And Greece and Portugal sing,
And Spain, and French banks sing.
Joy to the EU, the Savior reigns!
Let central bankers their songs employ;
While fields and floods, rocks, hills and plains
Repeat the sounding joy, Repeat the sounding joy,
Repeat, repeat, the sounding joy.
No more let credit sorrows grow,
Nor defaults infest the books;
He comes to make His blessings flow
Far as the curse is found,
Far as the curse is found,
Far as, far as, the curse is found.
He rules the world with truth and grace,
And makes the nations prove
The glories of His righteous printing press,
And wonders of His love,
And wonders of His love,
And wonders, wonders, of His love.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:36 | 350214 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

+10!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:46 | 350254 geopol
geopol's picture

Rehash,,,

 

It has been evident for some time that the ongoing speculative attack on Greece, along with such other countries as Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Italy, was not primarily a reflection of their economic fundamentals, nor yet a spontaneous movement of “the market,” but rather an orchestrated action of economic warfare. The dollar had been relentlessly falling through the late summer and autumn of 2009. It obviously occurred to various Anglo-American financiers that a diversionary attack on the euro, starting with some of the weaker Mediterranean or Southern European economies, would be an ideal means of relieving pressure on the battered US greenback. Since these degenerate elites are incapable of directly solving the problem of the dollar through increased production, full employment, and economic recovery, one of the few alternatives remaining to them is to create a situation in which the euro is collapsing faster, leaving the dollar as the beneficiary of some residual flight to quality or safe haven reflex.

This is what emerged during the first week of December with a speculative assault or bear raid against Greek and Spanish government bonds as well as the euro itself, accompanied by a scurrilous press campaign targeting the “PIIGS,” an acronym for the countries just named, coming from inside the bowels of Goldman Sachs.

Now comes concrete proof of this conspiracy in the form of a Feb. 8 “idea dinner,” held at the Manhattan townhouse of Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co, a boutique investment bank. Among those present were SAC Capital Advisors, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital (a veteran of the fatal assault on Lehman Brothers in the late summer of 2008), Donald Morgan of Brigade Capital, and, most tellingly, Soros Fund Management. The consensus that emerged that night over the filet mignon was that Greek government bonds were the weak flank of the euro, and that once a Greek debt crisis had been detonated, all outcomes would be bad for the euro. The assembled predators agreed that Greece was the first domino in Europe. Donald Morgan was adamant that the Greek contagion could soon infect all sovereign debt in the world, including national, state, municipal and all other forms of government debt. This would mean California, the UK, and the US itself, among many others. The details of this at dinner were revealed in the headline story of the Wall Street Journal on Friday, February 26, 2010. (See article)

Nor was this the only cabal in town intent on attacking the euro through the week Greek flank. The article cited suggests that GlobeOp Financial Services and Paulson & Co. are also piling on. The zombie banks were also heavily engaged. The article reported that Goldman Sachs, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and Barclays Bank of London were also assisting speculators in placing highly leveraged bearish bets against the euro. Note that these zombie banks are alive today because of US taxpayer money, in Barclay’s case through AIG.

It amounted to a deliberate attempt to create a large-scale world monetary crisis which would certainly bring with it the dreaded second wave of the current world economic depression. The creation of monetary chaos in Europe through the convulsive destruction of the euro under speculative attack would cripple commodity production in western Europe, severely undermining one of the dwindling areas of the world economy which are still functioning. The genocidal implications for humanity ought to be obvious, but the assembled hedge fund hyenas were not concerned with these consequences.

George Soros has been telling every media outlet that will listen that the euro is doomed to fall apart and break up over the short run. Soros even has a theory to deploy as part of his speculative attack. Soros argues that the fatal flaw or original Sin of the euro is that it was based on a common central bank among the participating countries, but lacked a common treasury and tax policy. This means that a country like Greece can no longer defend itself from a speculative attack on its bonds by the simple expedient of currency devaluation, since there is no more drachma, and the euro is controlled from Frankfurt, not Athens. British spokesmen are quick to point out that, even though the financial situation of London is far worse than that of Athens, the British government is already devaluing the pound through a downward dirty float.

Given Soros’s infamous track record, he must be taken seriously. In 1992, Soros became world famous through his attack on the European Rate Mechanism, which he executed by a highly leveraged speculative assault on the British pound, at the time one of the weaker members of the ERM. Soros’ speculative attack led to a pound devaluation and the ragged breakup of the ERM, and netted Soros £1 billion in profits. It was as if Soros had personally stolen a £20 note from every man, woman, and child in Britain. The speculative gains were no doubt gratifying, but the overriding political purpose of the assault was to sabotage that phase of European monetary policy.

The London Economist has gone out of its way to mock Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero’s remark that Spain was under international speculative attack. Press organs of the city of London and Wall Street have ridiculed the Greeks as a nation of paranoid conspiracy theorists. And yet, the revelations made so far are strong circumstantial evidence of pre-concert, as Lincoln would say. Even the US Department of Justice has been forced to send letters to the participants in the infamous “idea dinner,” warning them not to destroy any of their records and thus putting them on notice that they are under investigation. While we should not have any illusions about the prosecutorial zeal of Attorney General Eric Holder, who once represented the international financial bandit Marc Rich, this is at least a beginning. Spanish and Italian judges are noted for their independence, and one of or more them may wish to examine the activities of Soros, Goldman Sachs, and their hedge fund allies.

Greece does not need an austerity program, as the Greek labor movement has eloquently argued in the course of their successful and admirable general strike last week. Greece does not need a bailout from Germany, the sinister International Monetary Fund, or from anyone else. Greece needs to defend itself with a 1% Tobin tax on all derivatives and other financial transactions. Greece should take the lead in outlawing credit default swaps, which amount to issuing insurance without meeting the capital requirements of being an insurance company. Greece needs to enforce EU and national antitrust laws. If Soros and his gang succeed in breaking up the euro, Greece should make the best of it by immediately imposing heavy-duty exchange controls and capital controls to protect the new drachma, on the model of Malaysia a dozen years ago. Greece should shut down domestic zombie banks and seize its central bank and use it to issue 0% credit for industrial and agricultural hard commodity production. If the Greeks made plain what they intend to do if they are forced to fall back on the drachma, the financiers who fear such an example would have another reason to relent.

Another obvious expedient is that of a bear squeeze or short squeeze. Soros, Goldman Sachs, and their gang of hedge fund allies have now used derivatives to establish short positions against Greek bonds and the euro, betting that these latter will go down. Political pressure is now being brought to bear on the European Central Bank and the Greek central bank to undertake an unannounced large-scale purchase of Greek bonds and euros in the forward market, causing the Wall Street predators to lose their bets, thus punishing them severely with extravagant losses. This is normal central bank practice, and it will be astounding if the Greeks do not execute such a maneuver very soon.

The world now faces a stark choice between two alternatives, with Wall Street forcing the issue. The first is that the zombie banks and hedge funds, having been saved and bailed out by national states and their taxpayers, will repay the favor by driving the national states and all forms of state, provincial, and local government into bankruptcy. This will be synonymous with the destruction of modern civilization itself. The second and preferred alternative is that the national states summon the political will to use the inherent powers of government to place the zombie banks, hedge funds, and related purveyors of derivatives into bankruptcy receivership and shut them down once and for all, relying in the future on nationalized central banks for the provision of credit. The second alternative would allow the preservation of modern civilization as we have known it. But in the meantime, the derivatives-based speculative attack on the southern flank of the euro has accelerated the arrival of the second wave of depression, which now appears likely to strike the world before the end of 2010.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:28 | 350348 Nothingman
Nothingman's picture

Attack of the Zombie Banks!

 

Excellent analysis as usual, geopol.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:33 | 350359 geopol
geopol's picture

Nothingman,

Thank you!!!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:42 | 350387 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ah, found gold!

I thank, good sir!

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:38 | 350491 geopol
geopol's picture

Your welcome,,,water

 

 

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 01:26 | 351022 Apostate
Apostate's picture

I strongly disagree with the tone of your analysis. Speculation isn't an "attack." The speculators didn't create this shitty system, the governments did. And the only viable method to hold the government in check is via the bond market, through working the culture, and meeting customer demands.

This was inevitable, and has been discussed for years.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 10:41 | 351670 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Good. We would like to see your expanded analysis then. And more often. 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:53 | 350410 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

"The second and preferred alternative is that the national states summon the political will to use the inherent powers of government to place the zombie banks, hedge funds, and related purveyors of derivatives into bankruptcy receivership and shut them down once and for all, relying in the future on nationalized central banks for the provision of credit.

This would rely on rational thought, non-conflicted government corporate interaction, and a journey down the rabbit hole that only happens in movies.

Depression it is.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:02 | 350556 geopol
geopol's picture

You see the reality...my friend..

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:31 | 350600 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Third alternative? One president who actually uses the power of the subpoena, investigation and the threat of prosecution to make his enemies (and friends) transparent and make them cut a deal. I know that sounds like another movie, but sans cooperation government, it's all that's left. Two guys (prez and AG) could, could, three times, COULD make this happen. It would have to be as abusive of power and "savvy" as the others have been. He had one thing on his side, timing. Most of the fraud was apparent in his first term. He'll have a full four to do this deal. Unlikely, but I'm still watching and see just enough to keep watching. Not legislative reform, mind you, but controlling the instrumentalities to enough of a degree to meet your goals. Don't you think, strictly speaking, it's in the U.S. current interest that the Euro losses *some shine?    

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:42 | 350649 geopol
geopol's picture

Diminished currency to gain prosperity?? that's nonsense,,,If it worked,,,what happened with Zimbabwe??

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:07 | 350441 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

I'm very happy I did not read this right before going to bed.  I have enough nightmares in my life. 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:27 | 350480 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This sounds like the last act of desperate men. 

There has been rumors of tobin taxes...what is the wait?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:46 | 350517 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Thanks for the under the covers view. Stunning. 

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:13 | 350577 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Could the USD FX Swap be used to attempt sinking some of these speculators? Likely or not?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:52 | 350669 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I'd be happier with no central bank at all, but that won't happen either, so bring on the destruction.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 22:55 | 350869 hayleecomet
hayleecomet's picture

Geo...

I thought that nothing, nothing, could suprise me anymore.  This intel makes me feel like I've had my head in the sand. 

Thanks for all your great contributions.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 00:16 | 350955 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Awesome Geopol. Simply awesome analysis.

On an interesting side note, the same GS bunch, who coined the derogatory PIIGS (they understand the power of words/labels) also coined the BRIC acronym, as if that lot of under-the-boot-heel of the self same banking dynasty nations could somehow cobble together a world-saving entity.

I live in the I of said BRIC and we are a mess. Absolute and total mess. The thought of this confused, haphazardly developing nation of serfs (the brits left an indelible mark) could somehow be an emerging superpower is beyond funny, beyond tragic.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 18:31 | 352845 geopol
geopol's picture

I understand,,, be well my friend..

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:48 | 350263 Gen X Gen Y Hybrid
Gen X Gen Y Hybrid's picture

M1 Currency of course inches up to a new record of $880 billion.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 17:57 | 350288 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Geopol makes Pan-The-Ist sad :(

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:05 | 350302 geopol
geopol's picture

Don't hyperventilate,,,

All is good..

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:08 | 350568 Duuude
Duuude's picture

Thank you for the clarity of your piece, but how is it that all is good?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:18 | 350578 geopol
geopol's picture

Sarcasim...<On>.....

 

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:19 | 350587 Duuude
Duuude's picture

Philosophy aside, I have trouble seeing how all is good in the world you depict. The material forces you detail, what material forces will be brought to bear against them?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:31 | 350617 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

He said he was being sarcastic.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:38 | 350374 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

The very least one would expect is naming rights to an island: Bernankos, Obamanos, Geitnorini...

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:47 | 350401 geopol
Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:46 | 350395 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Europe is doing the same thing, so we will have Euros in return so that when the doelarr weakens this summer they can be backed by Euros.  Then of course Europe has dolarrs and that weight is put on the Euro.  And then they all collapse next fall. 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 18:54 | 350416 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Regarding the deficit, No Personal offense to the current administration intended, but link is well worth the 1 min 8 seconds.  This also can be forwarded to all your simpleton friends...

http://www.wimp.com/budgetcuts/  

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:41 | 350504 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

We better watch out or Obama will shut us down...

I paused on CNBC, I know...I know, to hear Ken Langone say this: "The V-shaped recovery is here. Is it sustainable? I don't think so."

Ken Langone has a pretty good record...

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:53 | 350532 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

We should call it a 'backwards N' recovery.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 19:42 | 350507 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Can I write any of this off?

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:02 | 350557 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Any currency traders know the put payoff TODAY on US/EU parity? It was 7% in Feb. Moving lower?

 

"A going price for the bet is around 7% of the amount that a parity-trade would pay off. So, for an investor seeking a $1 million bet, the cost is $70,000. This means that the market currently assigns roughly 14-to-1 odds that parity will be reached. In November, the odds were around 33-to-1, said a person who has seen the trade's pricing." -wsj

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:52 | 350632 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Collapse Warning

http://www.pond5.com/stock-footage/671117/wwr-20100318-sand-002-001-1920...

Humanity (societies, nations, economies) is the pile of sand in the stop motion above, and it's in collapse mode; economically, politically, and socially. 

It is time to take steps to preserve your, and your family's, wealth and life, because both can and will be challenged in the months and years to come.  You need a get out of town plan, a firearm of some type, a tank of gas, a month's worth of rice and beans, and a rally point for friends and family should communication not be possible; at the very least.  This is not a drill, this is your collapse warning.

The forecast is for instability in economies, governments, and societies across the world.  Historically this leads to wide varieties and types of violence.  We are living in the Holocene extinction period, species are dying and disappearing, and ours could to.

The choice, quite simply, is yours. 

You either get this,

http://www.pond5.com/stock-footage/671117/wwr-20100318-sand-002-001-1920...

, or this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtiSCBXbHAg

What's it going to be? 

Who are you?  What will, and do, you stand for?  What do you believe in?  What will you run from?  What kind of society, econonomy, and government do you want, will you live in, or not live in?  Where are your lines?  When is enough, enough?  How will you die?  How will you live? 

Better figure it out, time's running out.  This is your collapse warning; evolve or perish.

http://lakeweb.com/money/Total%20U.S.%20Debt%20to%20GDP.gif

http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-pop...

http://www.gold-speculator.com/attachments/editors-picks/3960d1251840851...

http://webzoom.freewebs.com/finanadviz/southseapanic.jpg

http://www.minyanville.com/assets/Image/tulipmania.jpg

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 22:05 | 350784 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

A King once called upon his wise men to create something which would make him happy when sad and sad when happy. After some time had passed, the wisest approached the king and gave him a scroll. The king unrolled it only to find these words

"All things must pass".

 

Walking one evening along a deserted road, Nasruddin saw a troop of horsemen rapidly approaching. His imagination started to work; he saw himself captured or robbed or killed and frightened by this thought he bolted, climbed a wall into a graveyard, and lay down in an open grave to hide. Puzzled at his bizzare behaviour, the horsemen - honest travellers - followed him. They found him stretched out, tense, and shaking. "What are you doing in that grave? We saw you run away. Can we help you? Why are you here in this place?" "Just because you can ask a question does not mean that there is a straightforward answer to it," said Nasruddin, who now realized what had happened. "It all depends upon your viewpoint. If you must know, however, I am here because of you - and you are here because of me!"

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 23:55 | 350934 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 

 - Thank you Crab Cake.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 00:30 | 350971 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

When it becomes impossible to hide any longer.... How terribly tragic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html?hp

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 20:47 | 350660 Fraud-Esq
Thu, 05/13/2010 - 21:10 | 350704 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Thu, 05/13/2010 - 21:07 | 350696 Recovery3000
Recovery3000's picture

This is all well and good, but our esteemed MSM, like this interview in the Washington Post today: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/05/galbraith_the_danger_posed_by.html

says the deficit poses zero risk.  These people should be tried for sedition.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 21:25 | 350722 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

This sounds like bush-rove speak: JG:  "What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.


So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity."

outrageous statement.  

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 21:54 | 350767 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Just step back, ask yourself... $30 per human being in the United States?

Where else could you have gotten lo these last 5 months of comic farce, idiocy and daily drama for a price like that?

Bailouts are truly your best entertainment value.

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 22:03 | 350780 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Here is Barry anouncing the "Small Business Package".  More money to the banksters, and he has the audacity to say it in front of a group of soul shivering people.

$30 billion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is8rb0GBRpo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk5R5K6nb54

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 22:04 | 350781 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Off topic but not really.. here is a beautiful parallel of what I see going on in the financial world:

Consider the story of ex-baseball player Lenny Dykstra.

Here is the story he wants to sell tell you - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CGXqRsqr6I

(I love the part where Cramer calls him "one of the greats".. helloo.. irony much?)

Now here is the reality of Lenny's world (aka the smoke) - http://www.gq.com/sports/profiles/200903/lenny-dykstra-magazine

which leads to the fire (He claimed he wasn't bankrupt, he was 'restructuring'..) http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/07/the-bankruptcy-files-1....

and what's left for Lenny now? Nothing but Minsky momentarial ashes - (ie a fancy way of referring to the selling of your stuff via craigslist..)

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/clt/1732327210.html

Is there a better and more fitting example of the charade that is our current financial industry?

 

 

Thu, 05/13/2010 - 23:59 | 350938 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

You have made me very sad! 

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 01:35 | 351032 PapaKosmon
PapaKosmon's picture

Wow, what a story. Thanks for posting.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 01:32 | 351024 biggweasel
biggweasel's picture

I just got an old crew to...flag myself as junk. Whoops.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 05:03 | 351162 ricksventures
ricksventures's picture
Republicans introduce bill to prevent Euro bailout

The European Bailout Protection Act would:

1) Prohibit any funds that have yet to be drawn by the IMF from being used to provide financing to any EU countries until all EU nations are in compliance with the debt to GDP ratio requirement in their own collective growth pact.

2) Require the Treasury Secretary to oppose any IMF loans to EU nations until all EU countries are in compliance with their debt to GDP ratio requirement.

The bill does not permanently prohibit the IMF from lending to these nations; it simply prohibits the U.S. from participating in the proposed European bailout.

 

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/right-now/2010/05/republicans_introduce...



Fri, 05/14/2010 - 06:36 | 351208 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

CHICKEN SHIT Amount - pay up Yanks  - you want perversion just come to Europe. You young Turks Have nothing on us. It is less than a days bill for running your country into a wall. Pay up you whining Colonials. Weekend at Bernanke's (or Bernies or what eeeever) has nothing on us. Just pay the bill you lousy tight asses. Jesus anyone would think you an't got a printing press. Bless us in Green Bucks Baby or BP will see you in Hell- oh wait -  Green is the color of your rigged daily Fun bags you call a stockmarket. Bugger. Bugger is a Greek thing U all know!!

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 08:58 | 351403 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Captcha 

(-52) minus 69 equals = 17

or 

(-52) minus 69 equals = -121

or

-52 x -69 = 3588

 

Math question cannot be longer than 2 characters but is currently 4 characters long.

 

wtf.

Tue, 05/18/2010 - 07:12 | 357748 Hiwatt
Hiwatt's picture

no one's commenting on the fact that the ECB US$ tender had a takeup of only 1bn?
...it's just a facility to provide liquidity in a distressed market. When I see the angle they give to such pieces of news here, all I can think about is "vested interests".

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