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Tis but a scratch! I've had worse.
One should also note that Fitch is majority French owned. This is a EUROPEAN ratings agency junking Greece.
So when does the unwind/crash start for real?
Why is this not triggering CDS to be paid out?
ISDA said this morning the agreement (key word somewhere: voluntary). From reuters this am, which started the rally:
09:06 22Jul11 RTRS-IIF PROPOSALS FOR GREEK DEBT EXCHANGE AND BUYBACKS UNLIKELY TO TRIGGER CREDIT EVENT- ISDA GENERAL COUNSEL DAVID GEEN
Some executive at ISDA threatened Jim Rickards recently. Is it this Geen guy? Or Richard Metcalfe? Someone else at Isda with a short fuse?
Because it doesnt matter what the rules are when you can change them.
Because they were not designed to be paid out on, just to be sold to punters. Rather similar to USTs and Greek bonds, really.
Ah, yes another conspiracy theory. How do you explain the fact that CDS do regularly pay out and settle, to wit: from the headlines today, Bank of Ireland is having an auction next week to settle their CDS as they did encounter a credit event.
Regularly... except for systemically critical sovereign defaults.
Agreed - no sovereign CDSs yet in the Euro area... however a few years back Ecuador did default and i believe there was some CDS exposure outstanding.
We're not talking about a tiny Andean nation where El Presidente brawls with striking police, we're talking about Europe. You missed i-dog's point, which was that THERE IS NO financial entity with the capital to make good on sovereign CDS, just as AIG didn't have remotely enough capital to cover the default swaps that Cassano wrote on Lehman debt.
You think E.M.U. leaders are sweating around the clock just because they enjoy perspiring?
His point, and your followup, is stupid and wrong. Do you think it's a country that nets out their obligations via CDS?
CDS is traded OTC and is MTM daily between market participants with a certain amount (depending on the issue) posted upfront. The rest is netted in an auction process which actually means the CDS sellers actually do receive a small portion back, depending on what worth of par the results come back at. Assuming you dont mean an all out world-wide default on CDS; then yes there should be no problem covering any margins left over.
And no, besides the Greeks right now, i dont think any other country's leaders are sweating right now - which is precisely the problem.
This thread is talking about Greek bonds -- sovereign debt -- not some CDS on Joe 6P's mortgage default. lol.
Greece won't default ... more money will be printed and handed to them, somehow! The US won't default ... Tiny Tim will print more, somehow! Meanwhile, the punters (pension funds, hedge funds) will keep paying the CDS premiums thinking that they are making an "investment".
Which make sense.
Any critical sovereign default triggers an avalanche of CDS that has no direct financial link to the covered default.
ZH, I suspect you are all market purists, are you ever going to join in to the request to ban CDS in the present form?
If it's insurance, then it should be treated as such (stake in the game, less then game itself).
If it's gambling, then it should be treated as such (not for banks, sin tax, regulation, etc.)
If you are market purists of the kind that abhors sovereign defaults, then I'm sorry, this is the wrong planet.
Historically sovereign are bad debtors.
End of "get rid of idiotic financial instruments now" rant. ;-)
Wait...what? Bank of Ireland sold CDS on itself, is that what you're saying? Who's dumb enough to buy credit protection from the same entity you're worried is going to default?
I have no insight into IREs own prop operations, my point was that they are the most recent entity to suffer a credit event w/r/t their CDS. When said credit event occurs, there is an auction process which determines what prices to pay (price as % of par). IRE auction is set for July 28th.
"Wait...what? Bank of Ireland sold CDS on itself, is that what you're saying? "
I agree, that would be silly. Sort of like "full faith and credit".....
"I have no insight into IREs own prop operations"
Wouldn't that be a knee-slapper to find their sole prop trading position was on CDS betting against their own banks solvency?
Wait for the backlash from the German people, if it gets that far.
queue fat lady
Not quite yet, but there is a queue of fat ladies.
As long as there are no real political changes combined with severe austerity plans AND ACTIONS, Greece is doomed to default.
With the current political atmosphere, it won't take long before they run their next deficits. So starting from jan. 2012, this shit will start all over again and now they'll drag down the sugar daddies and mommies with them.
Looking less and less likely that Greece will ever default, but more and more that the Germans will pay for everyone.
Wonder how long before Italy wants to get on the gravy train.
I can see the EU plan - you leave the crisis until it reaches a point where you have to take action - then you cobble together a package to shut the markets up (for a while) - you keep doing this when you need to.....until growth and recovery come and there's a real prospect of payment by the Greeks (or any other PIIGS)
Unfortunately this is based on the false premise that a recovery is imminent. In 1929 the recovery took more than a decade to come - does anyone think the EU (and the Germans) have the legs for another 8 bailouts?
They don't stand a chance.
At least in 1929 there were some countries growing - who exactly is growing in 2011? and who is growing by enough to drag the rest of us up with them?
Whatever happened to China being the stimulus for world growth? - oh yes, rather than them pulling us up - we pulled them down.
You have to laugh - Herman Van-Rompey actually believes that this is a 'solution' - but it's not even a very good sticking plaster.
We're not in the real crisis yet. We're still in damage control erea. The house of cards still needs to fall.
Classic example, yet again, of kicking the ouzo bottle down the road. Check out greek banks, spanish banks, french, ita; all higher. All the sovereigns you can think of are tighter in credit as well.
Ridiculous, but it had to happen.
Maybe in a few months there will be another catalyst, but it seems full blow crisis has been averted for now.
That's mostly done by retail investors who don't care to see the total picture. I know some who still trade bank stocks and whenever you start talking about this whole spiderweb of debt they look to you like a deer in the spotlight and don't really care. Stocks are up, that's all what they care about and that's enough proof for them that everybody else is wrong.
And all that they've learned is : when stocks go down don't sell. there's always a guardian angel who pops up.
Untill they don't.
Bagholder conditioning 101.
This whole episode will be re-run again in 2012. Remember 2011 was a re-run of 2010. Will take about a year before the SHTF in eurozone. Do they hand out degrees in can kicking to modern politicians these days? They are really skilled at it. "So long as it does not happen while I am in office." LOL.
There never was a crisis in the euro, despite the ZH panicky headlines. Euro problems were always going to be worked out, unlike the dollar problems.
The war between gold and the dollar has been over for a while now. The action, today, is between the dollar and the euro arena and this is what will break the price lock on gold.
Without an international floating gold reserve pricing, to balance against their devaluing debt reserve, the entire dollar banking system can only rely upon extreme dollar inflation to float its accounts. Price inflation will have to be ignored. To this end the group of dollar supporting countries, we refer to as the dollar faction, has locked itself into a box. It must find a way to float gold prices with a gold reserve that only drains away if world gold price rise.
What's CDS on Germany saying?
Skimming the German newspaper articles today, I was amazed at the lack of outrage at this plan. Many of the articles are jubilatory that private involvement was agreed and that the leaders over-delivered. Not much copy given to taxpayer costs and possible knock-on effects.
~20bp tighter on core Germany, SovX (Western EU) also tighter to around 240 midpt
Soon to be announced by the rating agencies:
- Default of The Roman Empire.
- Currency reform from Reichsmark to D-Mark completed. Outlook for the German economy positive.
- America Discovered, instead of a sea passage to India.
The more air they pump into this bubble, the bigger the ultimate pop.
in a large enough bubble, there is still room for a lot of ponzi.
ISDA out with some comments...."shouldnt trigger"
Well, the whole deal has to pass the different nation-state congresses, where it will be criticized to death by the opposition. Wait until September. ;-)
Given the outstanding global debt, very few countries out there are SOLVENT! Rest is
Der Spiegel wonders who's going to pay for it all...
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