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Fitch Revises Belgium Outlook To Negative

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two weeks ago we speculated that S&P would downgrade Belgium next as the peripheral fire makes inroads to the core. Turns out Fitch is taking charge on this one. Expect S&P to follow shortly. EUR for now pretending it doesn't care.

FITCH REVISES BELGIUM'S OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE; AFFIRMS AT 'AA+'
 
Fitch Ratings-London-23 May 2011: Fitch Ratings has revised Belgium's rating Outlook to Negative from Stable and affirmed its Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'AA+'. Fitch has simultaneously affirmed Belgium's Short-term rating of 'F1+' and Country Ceiling of 'AAA'.
 
"The Negative Outlook reflects Fitch's concerns over the pace of structural reform in the coming years and the ability to accelerate fiscal consolidation without a resolution to the constitutional crisis," says Douglas Renwick, Director in Fitch's Sovereign group. "However, despite the ongoing political dispute, day-to-day fiscal management has remained strong, in keeping with Belgium's high-grade rating."
 
In Fitch's view, without political agreement over constitutional reform, it will be difficult to achieve a balanced budget at general government level as laid out in Belgium's Stability Programme. This would require budgetary surplus at lower levels of government and/or significant social security reform, either of which would likely become entangled in Belgium's linguistic-community dispute.

Sustained debt reduction will require fiscal reform as well as fiscal discipline over the coming years, which in turn requires a new government with a fresh mandate.
 
Political risk is higher in Belgium than in other euro-area peers given the fractious disputes over the future shape of the state. Fitch notes, however, that the caretaker government (in place since April 2010) has significant budgetary powers and the agency does not expect the political turmoil to pose a threat to fiscal performance this year (a deficit of 3.6% of GDP is budgeted for 2011). Belgium's deficit outturn for 2010 (4.1% of GDP) was better than expected and stabilisation of debt/GDP has been achieved, in contrast to with most euro area peers.
 
However, the high level of public debt (96.6% of GDP in 2010) leaves the government with little spare fiscal capacity to deal with future shocks. This makes the rating sensitive to risks surrounding the government's medium-term fiscal objectives, which Fitch views as significant. Slippage from official deficit targets would likely result in a downgrade.
 
Despite a relatively solid economic performance through the crisis to date, Fitch notes some factors which could hinder growth over the long term. The labour market has significant rigidities, with limited responsiveness of wages to productivity. Product market regulation is also significant. Belgium's banking system was hard hit by the crisis and has required substantial state support (the upfront cost of bank bailouts has added around 6% of GDP to the public debt). Banks' domestic exposures are relatively low risk but claims on peripheral euro area and CEE entities are significant.
 
The 'AA+' rating is underpinned by Belgium's structural strengths: an advanced, diversified economy with high income per capita, high domestic savings and low private sector debt. The economy's external balance sheet is strong, with relatively low international leverage, current account surplus and a net foreign asset position. All these are characteristics of a "core" euro area sovereign.

 

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Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:25 | 1302151 jm
jm's picture

AA+.  Call me when they stop lying.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:25 | 1302160 Bubbles the cat (not verified)
Bubbles the cat's picture

The raw power of chocolate.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:38 | 1302181 steve3828
steve3828's picture

Ok, what does it all mean

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:49 | 1302228 jm
jm's picture

Simple.  You know how girls look better when you are a little tipsy?

Fitch just drank a fifth of Everclear when it looked at Belgium.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 15:04 | 1302651 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

When the fuck was the outlook on Belgium ever positive?

Although I heard that the German / Dutch part actually works pretty hard. It's the sucky halfbreed mongrel French part that's dragging the whole ship down.

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 13:27 | 1302367 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I....

We...

They....

 

WE ARE NOT TAKING ANY QUESTION FOR NOW! THIS INTERVIEW IS OVER!

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:22 | 1302153 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Buy the rumor, buy the news.  That's how the old saying goes, right?  Bob Pisani?  Ok, just makin sure.  BTFD!

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:26 | 1302161 youngman
youngman's picture

Is it just me ..or is all this news in the EURO zone starting to become a comedy...

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:31 | 1302170 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More Eurozone symbolism comedy of the day- Obamas limo gets high centered dead stuck.

YouTube - Barack gets car stuck at Dublin Embassy May 23rd 2011

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:35 | 1302180 JollyRoger
JollyRoger's picture

Looks a bit like a replay of last year, only worse.  Will investors flock to the Dollar this time around?

 

http://silvercointrader.com/2011/05/will-investors-flee-to-the-us-dollar-if-the-euro-crashes/

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:27 | 1302167 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Only a WEE bit more negative than 100% safe great investment.....uh yea.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:32 | 1302171 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

What is amazing is the continued surge in CMG, (a freaking burrito restaurant!!!), making new highs and totally shucking off all the various and assorted ills plaguing the financial markets these days.

And don't get me started on American Express, Capital One, Discover, etc. as safe haven plays....

LOL...

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:35 | 1302179 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Hard to imagine ZH actually compensates you in some way...

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:37 | 1302189 Herne the Hunter
Herne the Hunter's picture

There's always money in the burrito stand

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:34 | 1302191 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

Mexican restaurants are performing better than both silver and gold this year. 

YUM is also pretty good... 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 17:29 | 1303095 Nicholaz
Nicholaz's picture

No wonder ... as they say: You can't eat gold (or silver for that matter).

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:40 | 1302201 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

TZOO down. But momo, you promised! lol

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:49 | 1302229 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

is today the day we're supposed to fight the fed according to the old catfish mouth, or not? the girl can't keep his stories / lies / exaggerations straight from blog to blog, day to day or post to post, although the biggest lie is the one he tells to himself which is that he is a trader par excellence.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 13:04 | 1302283 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

And don't get me started on American Express, Capital One, Discover, etc. as safe haven plays...

 

 

 

Ok we won't we promise!!!......if you promise to stop cherry picking from past performance

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 14:45 | 1302579 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

What is amazing is the continued surge in CMG, (a freaking burrito restaurant!!!),

This is obviously the result of that secret meeting in the Eccles building last weekend. The first target for QE3 has been chosen!

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:31 | 1302176 Jack Mehoff
Jack Mehoff's picture

They should grade everyone on a curve, that way everything is always fine. 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:37 | 1302185 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Is it just me or does the DXY tank about 15-20 ticks every day lately around 11 or 12pm?  And then the market starts its upward ascent.  Can't remember the last time we've shown consistent strength in the DXY into the close for more than a day at a time.  Never, ever any downward confirmation.  We'll see what happens today...

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:58 | 1302257 Trillax
Trillax's picture

I've noticed movement around that time LRC -- but haven't gone too far back (i.e. no more than 3 months) to check for patterns.  But yeah, I have noticed some pretty consistant movement at certain times of the day.

EDIT: Damn text editor. Tyler, can we puhlease get the captcha thing fixed? It regularly asks for answers that are negative but does not allow the "-" to be placed in front of the answer. OT rant off. ;)

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:45 | 1302195 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Whoops there goes another rubber tree plant!

(European fires now jumping roofs.  Worldwide QE3 by July 1.  No way pain will be taken here.)

Bernanke will now have to choose between people having jobs and their having enough money to pay the gas to get there.  Until Congress repeals dual mandate, we know what he will choose.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:38 | 1302196 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture


Hi. I'm a long time ZeroHedge follower.

Come follow my financial chart blog at http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/ and see just how wrong someone can consistently be ;)

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 16:36 | 1302970 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

As I posted elsewhere where you've put this ...

That is an absolutely disgusting perverted name for your blog ... humour about the sufferings and death of animals, is about as low as it gets.

Please do not show that sick-named link of yours again.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:40 | 1302197 Mercury
Mercury's picture

In Fitch's view, without political agreement over constitutional reform, it will be difficult to achieve a balanced budget at general government level as laid out in Belgium's Stability Programme. This would require budgetary surplus at lower levels of government and/or significant social security reform, either of which would likely become entangled in Belgium's linguistic-community dispute.

...and if the market wasn't already constantly baking-in the assumption that half of Belgium's population could die of boredom at any given moment, this downgrade would be a much bigger deal.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 12:46 | 1302215 PaulSchiffT
PaulSchiffT's picture

When is someone going to notice italy or france or the US for that matter?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 13:05 | 1302284 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Germany's outlook gets lowered in the next 12 months.  That will be the "tilt" signal.  France soon after.  Nothing less will get real action from the core.

Thats where all this is going just a little slow getting there.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 13:15 | 1302313 All is chosen
All is chosen's picture

'Belgium' is a swear word.  http://www.charleroiadventure.com/ 

 

 

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 15:00 | 1302644 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

For some reason your link is broken. Here it is again.

Charleroi sounds like some place you'd visit either before or after your tour of Chernobyl.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 17:31 | 1303100 Nicholaz
Nicholaz's picture

It's the place where the Belches hide the abducted children.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 13:52 | 1302423 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Belgium is the forgotten PIIG.

Host of the EU headquarters is never mentioned as a PIIG, but it's really BPIIG. They're in bad shape too and also have no government so they're in suspended animation. Belgium is complete lunacy, but the EU has no shame.

The Dutch part in the North is pissed that the Frenchie part in the South are freeloading mooches who don't contribute.

Dontcha know the Northern half is supposed to pay for everything and keep the chic French leaning Southerner's social welfare benefits up to date with inflation.

Apparently, it's called "Going Dutch" for good damn reason.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 14:22 | 1302512 Nnthnt1
Nnthnt1's picture

belgium is one of the biggest creditor nations / capita in Europe. Just look it up in CIA factbook if you think im BSing.

Often forgotten to take the NET balance.

Just like Belgians own a shitload of foreign assets, they own the majority of their own sovereign debt.

This is why the majority will never get it that Belgium (similar situation as Japan concerning being NET creditor and majority holder of sovereign debt) is correctly forgotten as a PIIG country

Before commenting, think about how small the importance of ratio debt/gdp actually is compared to other factors.

Take the U.S, if you take all factors combined, you know theyre in a huge mess, no parallel to be found in europe.

I do not deny, however, that the future looks bleak, very bleak. - A 'Belgian'.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 14:29 | 1302526 Nnthnt1
Nnthnt1's picture

Furthermore, I don't like the idea of central rating agencies (see also david einhorn charlie rose interview YT).

However, to me it looks easy to criticise their opinions from an amateur point of view.

Has anyone considered they might be bigger experts in their field then this plebs army of Debt/gdp and 'latest news readers'?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 14:27 | 1302531 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

But that trick only works if you have your own currency, right?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 14:30 | 1302533 Thurifer
Thurifer's picture

Now would  be a good time for King Albert II to show the advantages of constitutional Monarchy and send some heavily armed members of the military to invite the heads of all the major parties to the "castle" of Saint-Gilles,close the large iron gates behind them and tell them they may leave when the country has a government.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 15:26 | 1302721 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Once their patent for "the Belgian Waffle" ran out, I knew they were sunk.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 16:02 | 1302864 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

FREE FLANDERS!

 

FREE FLANDERS!

 

FREE FLANDERS!

 

Vlaanderen vrij!


Vlaanderen vrij!


Vlaanderen vrij!

 

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 16:40 | 1302971 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

The tjseven are not trustable, the socialists think they're living in a 'free' 'gratis' world and a fucking liberal like bart Tommelein wants to sell the physical gold. Good luck !

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 17:00 | 1303027 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

Even Prof. Dr. Paul de Grauwe of the K.U.Leuven things  the financial/bank crisis is probably caused by the rating offices like Fitsch etc... At the time he was just a professor, he was a good one. Later he became a politician and TV star. Now he's telling bullshit.

In Flanders they used to say : good friends make good accounts. Do we have good accounts ?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 17:04 | 1303029 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

Even Prof. Dr. Paul de Grauwe of the K.U.Leuven things  the financial/bank crisis is probably caused by the rating offices like Fitsch etc... At the time he was just a professor, he was a good one. Later he became a politician and TV star. Now he's telling bullshit.

In Flanders they used to say : good friends make good accounts. Do we have good accounts ?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 17:09 | 1303051 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Reynders said it even better this week: THE BELGIAN DEFICIT IS A URBAN LEGEND!

They better make him head of the ECB... wouldn't that be fun...

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 17:58 | 1303166 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

This is getting better by the day. I'm going to need more beer, popcorn, and nuke pics for this crash. 2008 was a piker compared to what is coming next.

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