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Fitting End To 2009 Trading: Big Volume Sell Off
It was only fitting that a year marked by irrational and erratic trading, saw a substantial volume selloff in the last 15 minutes of trading after there was absolutely no volume done all day. What sparked it? Only a few momentum chasing quants know, even as the bid seemed dangerously close to getting unglued. Suddenly all the big-cap liquidity provisioning seemed just a tad tenuous. Another way of looking at it: a cheap appetizer of things to come. Is the January 4 rush for the exits entre next?
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Im looking for the ninth myself. So, it will probably be monday. With my luck.
I didn't see a way to post for a new comment, but
the question is what has been taking so long and if we are going to see the same BS as last month where the powers tht be hold things flat while we correct the oversold
condition.
the rise of the dollar reflected increased risk aversion in the currency markets after Dubai. You also saw T-bill get zero yields, but no sell off. What the Fuck!!!
Now we are seeing it again
This was the same crap we saw earlier in the
year when the S&P couldn't go under 880 (there
always was a supporting bid/ manipulation). Saw the same
crap when every drop off bid was bought early in
You look at technical indicators and they have been saying sell for a while. When the market isn't following currency markets you know things are being manipulated.
For example, how many times in this rally has the rest of the world attempted to sell off, but the S&P
Does not?
GDP estimates go from over 3, to 2.8, revised to 2.2
and there was no sell off. Huh??
This is the BS shit of HFT that allows the players to control the market that folks like senator robert me
menendez don't want to regulate (by the way if
are a NJ resident there is an effort to have a recall vote for him, please feel free to join in this effort)
rally
Thanks for your post, would like to hear more from you. I guess you've discovered that you can post a new comment by going to the bottom of the page.
Best of 2010!
The answer to your dilemma is when hedgies selling off emerging markets, they are buying SP.
And although the overall index was flat, there was huge sector rotation throughout NOV and DEC.
Why must the market ALWAYS sell-off on bad news?
News have effect on the market from time to time. Generally, the two are not correlated. I've see the market sell-off and burn hydrazine on no news, bad news and very good news.
Again, indexes and currencies are not always correlated. Don't be a fool. In fact, it's scary when there's a perfect correlation in all asset classes.
Leave HFT out of it.
The real question is how many hedgie brats and banker boobalas are going to knock off their parents to take advantage of that great death tax repeal?
I guess a little joking, that might be not their parents, but their kids.
Remember, it's their kids who are more in debt.
It would be a bit ironic, if we wanted to think darker than reality, and say they did this so they could kill their parents. Well it may back fire, and their 20-30 year old kids will be killing their 40-60 year old parents. Not the 40-60 year olds killing off the 80 year olds.
But if my name was George Herbert Walker Bush, I might be scared.
Just an ironic twist, darker than reality, but something to ponder.
The baby-boomers and hedge brats won't find it necessary to throw mama from the train because mama will be broke.
The rocket ship for the uber-wealthy to avoid the (planned) asteroid strike to the US economy is the 2010 repeal of the estate tax. Don't be fooled by the supposed government largess and benevolence to us peons.
Monday the market will collapse and the dollar will dive.
The managers of family trusts and foundations representing trillions of US dollars pulling everything out of our economy and placing it in tax friendly countries and foreign currency. The Fed is in on the gig and has been propping the market in order to achieve maximum value and steal as much as they can from us peasants in 2009 prior to the exodus.
The dollar will be worthless in a few short weeks.
My advice - watch the currency market on Monday and see which currency is "exploding" and be prepared to get in while you can.
lets hope for the best ... but expect the worst monday..
Hard to say. Maybe cashing out shares-as-bonus for the income tax year. Maybe insider trading at the end of the last favorable calendar quarter ... Q1 2010 could be a ball-buster for retail.
You'd almost think there's a lack of trust.
call me an idiot, i thought we only had a half day, lol
best guess GS finally complying with there VAR they had too reduce this month, only those guys could wait until the last half hour and know they could do it
If you noted today the Fed said there would be no
further bank investments after today. If you read
carefully this was a signal that not only would
there be no further investments in banks it also meant
the stock market.
The Fed has to ramp down the debt and all of the
spigots were shut off today. The market will be on its
own as of Monday.
faz was down all day, even at dow-100, it only came up, with the last 18 point decline.
Maybe it is in the wind that the SEC will finally stop the HFT trading. Without the Frontrunning of the HFT Computer it will be almost impossible for the Major Players to hold the Market flat without volitility as you will reintroduce Human emotions into the Market.
There also may be some concern about how much money the FED can continue to throw at the Market to keep it up and flat. At least the FED kept the Market up to maintain the Wall Street Bonuses for this year.
I think that next year is a question mark. Although, if the Congress raises the Debt ceiling by 1.9 Trillion, I am sure the FED will continue to throw Money at the Market to continue the Banks profits.
The Market is so Bogus right now with the HFT front running Computer trading and the FED's intervention. It is so displaced from reality and not reflective on what is actually happening in the real world with the People in America.
All of the numbers reported from unemployment claims, GDP and all other numbers are not reliable they all get revised to less favorable numbers after initial realease.
So many Floor Traders have been out of the Market since October. Why? They do not believe in the Market or the Trading. They took their Money and ran with their profit for the year.
If anything for this year I really hope they dismantal Hal the HFT Trading platform. I truely think that this is an illegal form of frontrunning and has forced all of the big player to Dark Pools in an effort to avoid the HFT trading. At this point no one can trust the open Market. It appears that the current open Market on the exchange is only to front run Retail Investors as all Instutional Traders are in the Dark Pools.
So, in summary that is why I think everyone vacated the Market in the last 15 minutes. A signal for things to come in my opinion.
Not to worry. Even the Times journalists are celebrating
second derivatives now. I must have missed the
glimmer of hope this dingbat saw in today's selloff. Idiot nation.
>One of the most volatile decades in Wall Street history ended on Thursday with a glimmer of hope, as optimism over the strength of economic recovery helped keep markets near their highest levels in 14 months.<
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/business/01markets.html
The bigger question - how does Mr. Durden ring in the new year? A case of Budweiser?
Goldschlager, bitches!
Newcastle Brown, Eel River Amber Ale or Lost Coast Downtown Brown. Your choice out here...
I love understatement
I think the Fed sold the market down at the end to give bears a glimmer of hope which they can have wet dreams about for the next 3 days after which it will be SSDD.
Probably a Fed surrogate liquidating some positions to have more cash to manipulate things 1st week of January to convince everyone of the success of the Brave New World...
Long bonds and oil are weighing on the common equity garbage.
I'm bearish long term but I just can't get behind all this gloom and doom. Market will rally first week January into potential hot jobs numbers. And the estate tax will stay the same as 2009 over the coming few years.
Nothing exciting guys, the bears will take over after first quarter earnings.
I'm bearish long term but I just can't get behind all this gloom and doom. Market will rally first week January into potential hot jobs numbers. And the estate tax will stay the same as 2009 over the coming few years.
Nothing exciting guys, the bears will take over after first quarter earnings.
Hot job numbers? Are you forgetting the EUC is killing 200k from the roles? Fed emergency unemployment isn't counted in the weekly unemployment numbers. The BLS U-6 number is 17.2% that isn't good! Retail will be killing jobs at a record pace, friends have already been axed.
sorry to burst your bubble. Dollar will be down the next two days, and the market will rally (somewhat). Look at oil...never did a sell off today, nor was there any distribution.
Shorts...please try again later!
I will believe the sell off when I see it. The game is rigged boys and girls - markets are no longer "free". Happy New Year Amerika
And already the out of hours lot have pushed the futures back up again
How many times have the shorts been "set up" and then killed the next day when stocks have rallied? This last minute sell off smells of continued manipulation by the powers that be seeking to show that they still run things "around here".
Just some minor tax, balance sheet positioning.
Q1 will kill for risk assets, especially US stocks.
The Q is baked and Raj tells me earnings will beat estimates by 10-20% across the board (kinda obvious).
From shorty over at Cap Stool...
Sorry, but there's only one possible caption for that chart. - Fat Lady Sings.
Still no decision yet.
Financials were unfazed from today's selloff.
OK, so HAL 9000 left early to get ready for a hot date tonight and "dropped the ball" this one time... come on, we've all been there! Hey, have a good one HAL... get some rest for Monday though, could be a rough one!
OK, so HAL 9000 left early...
Exactly. The HAL 9000 #1 automatic shutoff clicked over fifteen minutes early, the HAL 9000 #2 had no-one to trade with and blew a circuit. That's all it was.
WHat "big volume?"
Was there some particular news at 330?
No news.
But there were actual trading signals that both directly and immediately presaged the 'random' tank as well as secondary signals / setups before and after the cash close. Very easy ones.
15:36 bar registered a new LOD (low-of-the-day) for the NYSE TICK ... anyone remember what that often begets ? bueller ??
True Trading Tips: High-Probability Intra-Day Scalp Setups Using the NYSE TICK
Will likely post a workup manana eve with pics and much greater anal-ytic detail of actual substance.
This technical analysis thingamajig actually just might have something to it.
There really is a rhyme and a reason … a group of dark boogie-men hiding in the closet do not control financial markets.
And if you must think of HFT as the Night Man ~ a plague hiding in the darkness just waiting to getcha ... then at least try to think of TA (technical analysis) as HFT’s kryptonite ~ the Day Man ... fighter of the Night Man. Champion of the sun. He’s a master of karate, and friendship; for everyone.
Someone said minor. I think the best we can hope for is a gentle drift downwards over the first week of the new year only...until the next set of massaged stats or wads of lucre arrive...
The fact that all us realists (err, bearish folks) can't believe in any sell off means a couple of things -
1- Few of us believe the market will be allowed to go down (due manipulation or whatever).
2- Bulls all believe we're in the early phases of a new bull market.
If (for whatever reason) bulls and bears all on the same side of the boat...means there's nowhere to go but down? And maybe down in rapid order cause most anybody that's been short has been mauled over the last 9 months and isn't likely to stick there neck out w/ short positions. Few buyers plus few shorts means big trouble. Hell, I even disagree with myself and can hardly believe the market will go down (we've all been well trained now) but that utter discomfort I feel going short is the same discomfort I had in late March buying into the upside of the down market. Seems my internal max pain guide is usually a really good guide to do exactly the opposite and it will work out. Don't know if Monday or Feb or when but feels the same now as it did at the bottom.
cH
Dec 31 6pm est
Fed Discusses Limited Bond Sales to Withdraw Stimulus
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials are considering a proposal to schedule limited sales of bonds from the central bank’s $2.2 trillion balance sheet...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKkJ6A78P1P0
from the link- this cracks me up-
"Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to wind down emergency stimulus programs that helped avert a second Great Depression"
ok then- guess the coast is clear- all handled now- problem solved- lol
Makes you wonder if the liberal mass media would ever print something like, "Bush's emergency involvement in Iraq that helped avert a third World War."
From the article wang linked:
So a fed meeting held in November and its minutes, also released in November, caused a massive last half hour decline in the markets on Dec. 31?
Is the January 4 rush for the exits entre next?
----------------------
do not get your hopes up
Happy New Year. Have a Prosperous 2010. Check out the Blue Moon Tonight. Once every 19 years.http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/
Don't believe evrything you read on the "internets". Blue moons occur every 2. 7 years
He meant New Year's Eve Blue Moon -- next one in 19 years.
C'mon Tyler... Big volume ?. If you want to be different from the msm you have to honest.
FAZ and Short S&P ETFs spiked at End of Day. Volume was up almost 10 times.
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash in early 2007.
I confirmed a bottom in April 2009.
I warned of an impending USD rally in July 2009.
DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue and recent market action is bearish.
The Weekly trend remains neutral to bullish: ie a mild uptrend.
When the weekly chart rolls over, we will have confirmation that the March 2009 bear market rally has finished.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Any bad calls during that time or are you just that fucking awesome?
Silly humans, bear knows why market collapses; oil price near $80 a barrel.
Oil over $35 destroys all economies. Oil @ $80 destroys faster.
Fed policy is full of shit. Economists full of shit. Inflationists full of shit. Economic policy now made in Saudi Arabia, not in Washington, certainly not by some tiddly- wink investment bank.
Dollar is now super- hard currency; backed by oil not gold. As oil is depleting and very expensive, it is also sublimely deflationary. Nothing can be done to reverse trend. Please be smart and close out dollar short trades now or face unpleasant consequences.
I leave now.
You should change your handle to "Lrrr"
http://futurama.wikia.com/wiki/Lrrr
Its all downhill from here
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sz0vEpvfW7I/AAAAAAAADSk/HnlBUvKZzs...
It was December quarterly options expiration on the SPY. There was a shitload of $112-strike calls sold so they had to get the market to close below that to make good on their trades. Nothing to see here, move along.
Nice work by the Ministry of Information, they've even got to the private companies to go along.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091231-704973.html
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago on Thursday released recalculations of the seasonal factors for the components of its headline business barometer. The new data, also known as the PMI, show Chicago business activity was weaker in December than had been reported Wednesday.
I are HFT. I short to the gills, suck my balls! Please explain how i rally yet sell more than buy? Gas oven for you, simplebrain! SEC no love you, but they love me! Please expain. Again, I short. Huh?
good speculation for the 4th.
nothing sadder than a person's disposition to be optimistically negative.