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"Five Sigma" Evidence Of Japanese Repatriation: Meet The Country That Sold The World
Courtesy of Sean Corrigan, we share this stunning chart of Japanese relative buying/selling of foreign stocks denominated in USD (and thus subsequently needing to be converted to JPY). Having swung in what is largely a one standard deviation range, in the last month the ratio of foreign buying to selling plummeted to the lowest in the past decade, and possibly ever: the relative dumping of foreign stock is easily the most pronounced five sigma event of recent times, and has been largely unnoticed. Want empirical evidence of repatriation? There you have it, in not one, not two, but five standard deviations. But don't tell the G7, or Steve Liesman. There is no such thing as repatriation following the country's biggest natural disaster in... ever.
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Residual Outliers Bitchez!
Steve Liesman cries whenever you make fun of him.
As well they should
5 sigmas is too much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZBdmv5iX7E
No biggie, someone please pass me the KoolAid.
Silver says good bye to $46 and the DXY limps into morning looking like forty miles of bad road...
It really looks like an end of the road for the dollar.
all that selling really didn't drop teh market either, some things are just too hard to believe. I hate these manipulated markets. theater for the sheep
After looking at the CMG message board on Yahoo, I'm convinced they have managed to lure the retail investor back in. Lots of simpletons convinced the market only goes up, and P/E ratios don't matter. We'll continue to go up until the big boys decide to take 'er down.
That place will rot your brain. They think their own posts can drive in buyers or sellers.
You got that right (the manipulated markets) As if with all these serious events - the dollar, oil, the end of QE or not - "earnings are driving the market to the upside". Its bullshit, but most of America thinks if the market is good, all must be well. How long can the conspirati keep the illusion going?
Not to nitpick, but it seems that the data series in the chart is not independent, so talk of a 5-sigma event is nonsense. Nevertheless a strong downward move...
"data series in the chart is not independent"
My understanding is a sigma event is were you deviate (by 5 or more standard deviations) from the mean of this chart..... (fat tail).
Are you saying that for this to be a "5-Sigma" event one must first graph, "so it's in that nice BELL CURVE format" the distribution of the JSIASTC Index ( to calculate the mean) to see were the "red highlight area" falls in this distribution?
It's been close to 40 years since I have sat in a college statistics class (and it was for engineers) so maybe my understanding is flawed.
If i remember right, 99.98% fall under the curve in 3 sdv or less so this sucka is off the charts under the tail. but I would probably still reject Ho and accept H1
Ha and you thought you was going to keep us ole cowpokes out with a math question. Its amazing what comes back to you 30years latter when you had them old crotchedy professers before they dumbed it down.
lol
+lol
for other newbs like me
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42150232/Explaining_Japan_s_Yen_Repatriation_Trade
Thanks much. I can't stop reading this site but so much of it flies over my head. Being one of the folks whose eyes were only recently opened to this world, I've got a lot of catching up to do. Any other "new guy" suggestions?
flush twice. it's a long way to washington.
Just read, use logic as an anchor. Prayer helps when seeking truth, there's more going on than what we can see. Lots of bullshit to sift through so don't get caught up in ideologies.
Yeah. http://www.investopedia.com/dictionary/
Thanks.
I guess the Japanese must be selling their foreign stocks to be able to buy more US debt.
that the indebted will use to buy more stocks that the debtors are selling to buy more debt?
Denial and docility about the unfolding and far from finished crises (economic, nuclear, earthquake/tsunami, debt) have kept the lid on the building pressure cooker in Japan. But when it blows, look out.
Its all to do with the yin and yang of the yen.
You lost me.
This is what the world sees. Leave all the macro shit to the master Ben Bernanke
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-up-after-strong-apple-...
Its all good.
Looks like some nice profit taking. Now go buy some silver ??!
Sigma = Stigma.
yesterday we had the price of silver meet the price of one share of JP Morgue......how long before we see the price of silver meet the value of the DX??????
our japanese friends are printing and selling and repatriating and we are backing them as much as we can. they're not selling their T's are they? meanwhile, we're boppin down the RR tracks with them, singin: Stand By Me, A Boy Named Suki, Stand By Your Man, Let Your Fiat Be Your Umbrella, Talkin Radioactive Foodchain Blues, A Yen For Bottled Water, and Oh Lord, Stuck In Tokyo, Again.
So much for coordinated currency intervention. I wonder what will happen when the yen blows through 79?
On that note, so much for OPEC oil price intervention. I wonder what will happen when Cushing hits $120?
On that note, so much for monetary intervention. I wonder what will happen when unemployment creeps back up over 10%.
On that note, so much for bank bailouts. I wonder what will happen when, well, banks keep doing whatever it is that they are doing (since banking doesn't seem to be what they do anymore).
Sincerely,
The broken record
I want to hire the guy who decides the timing of buy/sell in stocks. Goes in strong in the 3rd and 4th Q of 2002, dumps them in 2nd and 3rd Q of 2007, goes in crazy in 1st and 2nd Q of 2009 and is now locking in the profit.
Smart these Japanese.
I won't worry till it hits six sigma.
I'm waiting on Hello Kitty to talk about her investment strategy.
Never happen. She has no mouth. Pretty inscrutable, those Japs.
it is certainly a precipitous fall, and may well be significant, but there are other indexes from the Japanese MOF which show strong upswings in purchases of foreign securities over the same period. eg JSIABOND <index>, JPIFBOND <index>. the former, for example, seems to be the bond equivalent of the chart shown in the lead post. in the last 3 weeks, it has gone from +1000, to -1000, to +175, to +229 (that is all billions of yen). obviously those flows dwarf the movement shown on the chart, and cast some doubt on whether you might expect any fx manifestation. if net stock ownership by japanese fell by JPY 377bn in the last week, but bond ownership rose by JPY 229bn, then seems there is very little net effect. perhaps this just shows that japanese dont really trade foreign share holdings very actively.
obviously, this is the problem with GRABbing random charts off bloomberg without presenting the broader context.
SELL GODAMNIT I SAID SELL !
Latest update from Fukushima.
http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=758
As the great Nirvana and Kurt Cobain sung about, "Who knows, not me(Steve Liesman/CNBS/Goldman Sucks/Bernanke), We never lost control (of monetary system)."
5 standard deviations? they're dumping us to the nuclear fishes Tyler, we're gonna be nothing but dolphin food.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com