• Reggie Middleton
    02/09/2010 - 05:12
    The levered assets of the banks in many Euro-sovereign nations easily outstrip those nations' GDP's. So when the nations' banks get in trouble from bad banking practices (and a very large swath have), the nations themselves are helpless in attempting to truly save the banks (and instead only institute a bait and switch wherein private default risk/insolvency potential is swapped for public manifestations of the same).
  • madhedgefundtrader
    02/09/2010 - 07:22
    The rug may about to be pulled out from under the market. The onslaught of contradictory news coming out of Washington is wearing the market down. An exclusive interview with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor.

Fixed Income Update: More Supply

Tyler Durden's picture




Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP

We have a lot of fresh Treasury supply coming in this week. The last 30-Y auction put an end to a series off auctions that were coming in better than expected. However, as we had warned before that last long bond auction, the expected yield below 4% had the potential to trigger some retaliation by real money investors. Sure enoguh the scenario played out and since then yield have backed up towards 4.30%. Also as pointed out last week 3.50% on the 10Y is a relatively key psychological level.

On the 30-minute chart we see there is a fair bit of divergence, and we we have a clear reistance trend we are flirting with this morning, the lower part of the range 117-10/13 should be bought here in short term trading to play a retracement towards 118-13. Only a break there would potentially invalidate the downtrend we have been in.

Good luck trading,

Nic 

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by TumblingDice
on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 10:25
#110589

Treasury prices staying in oversold territory so comfortably indicates to me that there is further downside for some time.

It would be surprising to me if the long stocks/long treasury trade comes back anytime soon.

by jm
on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 10:43
#110596

Seems so.  I do wonder about the likelihood of yield curve inversion in the next few months...

 

 

by Lionhead
on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 12:31
#110689

Keep 'em coming Nic.

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