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Flash Developments Post Earthquake

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A snapshot summary of the immediately known geopolitical and financial consequences of the Japanese earthquake per Reuters:

- At least 50 people killed in the quake and ensuing tsunami, Japanese TV broadcaster NHK says.

- A ship carrying 100 people was swept away by the tsunami, Kyodo news agency reports.

- A train is unaccounted for in one coastal area, Kyodo says.

- "The earthquake has caused major damage in broad areas in northern Japan," Prime Minister Naoto Kan tells reporters.

- Quake triggers tsunami up to 10 metres (30 feet), waves sweep across
farmland, sweeping away homes, crops, vehicles, triggering fires.
Tsunami of 7 metres later hits northern Japan.

- Strong aftershocks hit northern Japan.

- Tsunami warnings issued for the entire Pacific basin except the mainland United States and Canada.

- Countries covered by the warnings include Russia, Taiwan, the
Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Mexico, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, Chile, Ecuador,
Colombia and Peru.

* Alerts lifted for Australia and New Zealand .

- Taiwan has evacuated some residents from the east coast, but lifted the tsunami warning that had been in place.

* Indonesia had expected tsunami waves to hit the northern coastal
areas of Sulawesi, the Moluccas and Papua islands at 1130 GMT, but by
1200 GMT it had not been felt, an Indonesian official said.

- Hawaii orders evacuations of all coastal areas.

- Ruling and opposition party chiefs agree the government needs to compile an extra budget after the quake.

- Power cut to four million homes in and around Tokyo. Several fires blaze in Tokyo.

- Many sections of Tohoku expressway serving northern Japan damaged. Major fire at Chiba refinery near Tokyo.

- Bullet trains to the north of the country stopped. The government was to dispatch 900 rescue workers to stricken regions.

- Tokyo's Narita international airport resumes some outbound flights
after earlier closing, halting flights and evacuating passengers.

- Tokyo underground, suburban trains halted. Sendai airport in the north flooded.

- All Japanese ports closed and discharging operations halted, shippers report.

- Eight military planes scrambled to survey damage. Prime Minister
Naoto Kan asks people to remain calm and orders the military to do their
utmost to act. Cabinet to meet. The government says more tsunami
possible.

- Tokyo Stock Exchange says it plans to open for trading as normal on Monday.

- Central bank vows to do utmost to ensure financial market stability.

- Government says a cooling function at Tokyo Electric Power's
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant was not working, but there was no
radioactive leakage.

- Television reports a major fire at Cosmo
Oil Co's Chiba refinery east of Tokyo, and a fire was reported at JFE's
steel plant, also in Chiba.

- Toyota says stopped output at parts factory and two assembly plants in the northeast.

- Mitsubishi Chemical says halts operations of two naphtha crackers at Kashima after a power outage.

- Electronics firm Sony closes six factories, Kyodo new agency reports.

- Asian shares fall after the quake hits while Nikkei still trading;
European shares fall to their lowest in three months, with reinsurers
Swiss Re , Munich Re and Hannover Re all down more than 4 percent.

 

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Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:30 | 1040053 nuvolari
nuvolari's picture

black swan day?

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:31 | 1040056 OnTheWaterfront
OnTheWaterfront's picture

You Betcha, DOW 10,000 here we come!!!

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 09:27 | 1040086 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Bullish indicator after the initial shock of a week or two. Big liquidity to spend on real projects and jobs, not just interest. Give everyone the feeling like things are getting better and not looking how the banks are ripping them off on a daily basis. Should work itself through in a few months.

I would like to think of this as an opportunity that could be used as a wake up call by the people of Japan. Wishing for the best that the rescue of people will go well.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:36 | 1040060 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Gonna do wonders for their trade surplus lol.

Will this finally break the back of the Japanese debt party?

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:41 | 1040077 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

what are the odds they end QE now?  i gotta think opposition to further QE will diminish.

alternatively i think it's impossible to consider tightening liquidity and raising rates

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:42 | 1040083 xPat
xPat's picture

Does anyone "get" why this annihilated the crude oil market?

Yes, I understand that a refinery was taken out and that it can't buy any more oil. But its oil storage was lost, and surrounding refineries will have to go into overdrive to make enough refined product to support the clean-up effort, which will cost billions, a few of which will be energy cost.

Talk about the BTFD opportunity of a lifetime! With protesters taking to the streets in Saudi Arabia, the market moving sharply DOWN over a disaster which will ultimately involve a huge energy cost is nuts!

xPat

 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 09:11 | 1040124 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

That is what i thought also. oil down? Same thought stream. And then you remember that oil price has nothing whatsoever to do with real reality. it's now an abstracted profit making game, with the end in sight for most astute observers, at least.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/11/axis-trembles/

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 13:06 | 1040902 Rhodin
Rhodin's picture

Some thoughts:

You have a huge drop in demand short term:

Factories will be closed from weeks to months, employees of those factories will not be commuting, supplies and product will not be moving. 

Public transit will be repaired before roads. It will take weeks to months to replace thousands of cars and boats and hundreds of planes destroyed in tsunami. 

Port facilities are damaged, and offloading oil will be impacted, affecting purchases of undamaged refineries.

As you point out, long term, this causes more energy demand, not less, and BTFD makes sense, but markets seem to be reacting short term lately.

 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 13:27 | 1041039 Rhodin
Rhodin's picture

Some thoughts:

You have a huge drop in demand short term:

Factories will be closed from weeks to months, employees of those factories will not be commuting, supplies and product will not be moving. 

Public transit will be repaired before roads. It will take weeks to months to replace thousands of cars and boats and hundreds of planes destroyed in tsunami. 

Port facilities are damaged, and offloading oil will be impacted, affecting purchases of undamaged refineries.

As you point out, long term, this causes more energy demand, not less, and BTFD makes sense, but markets seem to be reacting short term lately.

 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:50 | 1040099 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

The Teleprompter-in-Chief will be on TV shortly to blow smoke up the survivors asses that 'help is on the way'.    

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 09:03 | 1040118 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

You guys are too negative! Dow won't go to 10000 any time soon, if ever!!

 

Now the task is go to costco and BTF fish!!

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 09:12 | 1040142 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Does this mean they won't be buying US treasuries for a while? Well, maybe the new democratic Lybian goverment can make up for the slack.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 11:26 | 1040489 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

i swear one of our guys called the earthquake last night before it happened!!!: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/earthquakes-and-flash-crashes-the-coming-mini-flash-crash

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