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black swan day?
You Betcha, DOW 10,000 here we come!!!
Bullish indicator after the initial shock of a week or two. Big liquidity to spend on real projects and jobs, not just interest. Give everyone the feeling like things are getting better and not looking how the banks are ripping them off on a daily basis. Should work itself through in a few months.
I would like to think of this as an opportunity that could be used as a wake up call by the people of Japan. Wishing for the best that the rescue of people will go well.
Gonna do wonders for their trade surplus lol.
Will this finally break the back of the Japanese debt party?
what are the odds they end QE now? i gotta think opposition to further QE will diminish.
alternatively i think it's impossible to consider tightening liquidity and raising rates
Does anyone "get" why this annihilated the crude oil market?
Yes, I understand that a refinery was taken out and that it can't buy any more oil. But its oil storage was lost, and surrounding refineries will have to go into overdrive to make enough refined product to support the clean-up effort, which will cost billions, a few of which will be energy cost.
Talk about the BTFD opportunity of a lifetime! With protesters taking to the streets in Saudi Arabia, the market moving sharply DOWN over a disaster which will ultimately involve a huge energy cost is nuts!
That is what i thought also. oil down? Same thought stream. And then you remember that oil price has nothing whatsoever to do with real reality. it's now an abstracted profit making game, with the end in sight for most astute observers, at least.
You have a huge drop in demand short term:
Factories will be closed from weeks to months, employees of those factories will not be commuting, supplies and product will not be moving.
Public transit will be repaired before roads. It will take weeks to months to replace thousands of cars and boats and hundreds of planes destroyed in tsunami.
Port facilities are damaged, and offloading oil will be impacted, affecting purchases of undamaged refineries.
As you point out, long term, this causes more energy demand, not less, and BTFD makes sense, but markets seem to be reacting short term lately.
The Teleprompter-in-Chief will be on TV shortly to blow smoke up the survivors asses that 'help is on the way'.
You guys are too negative! Dow won't go to 10000 any time soon, if ever!!
Now the task is go to costco and BTF fish!!
Does this mean they won't be buying US treasuries for a while? Well, maybe the new democratic Lybian goverment can make up for the slack.
i swear one of our guys called the earthquake last night before it happened!!!: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/earthquakes-and-flash-crashes-the-coming-mini-flash-crash
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