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Flight To Quality - Euro Denominated Gold Surges To Fresh All Time Highs
Not much to comment on this chart. The credibility of the central banks is running out.
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Decoupling is completing itself. U.S. Treasuries = Flight to Safety = GOLD.
"Risk Trade" now recognizing "Sovereign Risk" and responding.
Decoupling is "completing" itself. I like that.
Can you say "blow off top in a wave 5?"
Sure. I knew you could.
The end is nigh for the goldbug religion my friends.
By the way, I said that we'd see a down week in the S&P soon in that poll. I called a top of 1220 on my Facebook blog. The top was 1219.8. I'm stoked that my post was so spot on. On ZH, I called a target of 1228. I figured the top would be sooner than the 61.8 fib, though.
When you look at the monthly chart of GOLD in the U.S., Gold has overthrown its ending diagonal briefly, which is a bearish sign. We will see 900 dollar gold soon.
Kudos to Mr. Shanky on this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s180216802]&disp=P
May we infer from this that you are a follower of that complete charlatan Robert Prechter and his "Elliot Wave" tea leaf-reading, chicken bone-casting divination nonsense? Please tell Bob that we are still waiting for his $600 gold --- along with Jon Nadler's $400 gold. Or was that $250 gold? Even the worst cranks have to raise their lowball predictions in some grudging acknowledge of reality, I guess.
Now I'm off to read some goose entrails --- I hear that they have been predicting the DXY at 120 and the Dow at 24,000, and I want a piece of that!
There's a lot more to technical analysis than EWI. EW is only one component of TA, and frankly, I know little about Elliot Wave aside from some of the basic rules about wave counting, etc.
Did you even look at the chart? There's no denying that those are bearish signals.
Of course, if you don't believe in TA, WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IN? Hold and Pray? Throw darts until you get it right?
I'm off to hold some shiny, pretty, gold in my hand.
The DXY was already at 120 earlier in the decade. Now it's at 80. The same level it was at in 1986.
Yet, despite a loss of only 33% in the last decade, gold is up 500%, based mostly on fear and speculation.
That doesn't make a good fundamental match for anything.
So really, how DO you pick your assets if you don't use TA? Guess? Pick the asset that is going up? The one that makes you feel good?
Really. Tell me one reason that is logical that says that gold should be as high as it is. Note: "The United States will be Zimbabwe" is not logical.
Also, what do you think will happen to gold once the economic recovery takes hold? Do you still think that it will go higher then? Or do you think we will see another post 1980 scenario?
I'm giving you the opportunity to show that goldbugs are actually intelligent and not just fear-based emotional investors that "hold and pray."
I was merely pointing out that Robert Prechter has been and continues to be wrong, wrong, wrong about gold, with his calls for how long now of gold going to $600, and deflation to rule the day. He is ignorant of real (Austrian) economics, and remains a partisan and defender of Ponz-scam fiat currency, which alone tells me all I need to know about his credibility, or more pointedly, the lack thereof.
On what do I base picking my assets? Well, for starters, the demonstrably unsustainable, profligate, and completely insane fiscal policies and actions of the US and other major governments, which by every historical precedent (as well as common sense) are finanicially painting themselves into a corner ---- correction, HAVE painted themselves into a corner ---- and whose massive borrowing and spending are guaranteeing the devaluation or collapse of their fiat currency house of cards. And if you think that a Zimbabwe-style outcome is "impossible" for the United States and other western governments, then please go back to putting your head in the sand, as you would clearly be beyond reason, having succumbed to the self-serving propaganda of the ruling elites and their central bankster allies (or is that a redundancy?).
When current governmental fiscal policies are more akin to those taken by Zimbabwe than not, the onus of argument and proof is on YOU to explain that such an outcome is "not logical". All I see in that statement is the worst kind of denial, close-minded "thinking", and refusal to see the world as it is and not as your "leaders" tell you it is.
I'll bet that you believed that "the US banking system is sound and healthy" and that "the subprime mortgage crisis will not spread to the broader economy" in 2007 too. After all, that is what our dear leaders told us then, so it must have been true, yes?
EDIT: I just noticed elsewhere here on ZH (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/world-gold-council-discloses-investors-...), by his own admission, that this "Johnny Bravo" is just our old gold-loathing troll "MasterBates" under a new alias. Why the subterfuge, MB? Were you (justifiably) banned for your purposefully antagonistic flaming? And oh, by the way, I liked your old name better --- much more representative of your activity in this forum.
I never hid my old identity from day one. Let's be clear about that.
I changed my password, and now I don't remember what my password is. I can't login under MB.
Actually, I called the housing bust in 2006. It's in my Myspace blog. I didn't bet money on it, but I was telling people it was going to crash when everybody was like "I'm going to get an 80/20 loan, and a 1% option ARM, and buy a condo for 400k!"
I rub it in my friends' faces all the time. The ones that didn't buy houses are grateful. Of course, they deny that they said "Oh, the housing market will go up again." Of course, back then, I was the only one on that side of the fence.
I remember everybody I knew telling me I was stupid for not buying a house. Now I just have all this money in the bank and no debt. Who's stupid now?
And now, I'm the only one against gold. Kinda funny, huh? It's eerily similar.
So really, you haven't given me any reason for the fundamental value of gold. All you've really done is speculate that the United States can never recover again. I'd be really careful making that bet.
As far as inflation goes, the prices of assets rose faster than the money supply. All printing more money would do is justify the OLD asset prices, which were not sustained by the money available.
Yet, gold continues to increase, even though the rest of the world deflates. It's okay. It'll increase until it doesn't anymore.
As far as Prechter goes, I'd say that he's right, but not because I believe in Prechter or EW. Gold WILL go to at least 900, and possibly 600.
You can laugh now, but just remember that you did when it does.
As far as your assertions about "what I believe" and "following the herd" or "following my dear leader" or whatever. I'm not the one in the herd, drinking the kool aid, and basing my financial investment ideas on a two word slogan like Gold Bitches.
The other ideas about the economy that are presented by goldbugs are dubious at best. At worst, they're nothing but pure speculation, based on what?
That the U.S. is going to be like Zimbabwe or Argentina? LOL. Maybe you haven't noticed, but the U.S. economy is number one in the world, we are the reserve currency, and we have so many assets as opposed to those two countries. We're not even closest to being the worst currency around right now. We're not even the closest to having the highest debt to GDP ratio. We have so much room to go before these predictions about hiding in the mountains with ammo and gold bullion will come true.
These assertions that we're going to end up like some third world shithole in a small amount of time are just unfounded. It's just foolish, almost.
That's okay though. You know who I am, and you know that we'll never agree. Just remember that I was right when I'm right. That's all.
Wow, you are either a raging egomaniac, or spectacularly ill-read and unaware. I think when one looks across the full range of financial pundits and opinion, gold is far and away still generally reviled or ignored, just as the elites would like it to be, and have fought for many decades to try to make it so. To try to claim that you are "the only one against gold" is rather disingenuous at best.
I would thank you to NOT put words into my mouth. I never claimed nor even implied any such idea. However, no real recovery is possible until the fundamental corruption and unsustainability of the current fiat monetary Ponzi scam is dealt with, something which is not only NOT being dealt with, but actively aggravated by governmental policies across the board. Any real efforts to reform the monetary and financial systems in the western world look to be years away at best, and it is both naive and dangerous to expect that any economic recovery can be sustained until they these fundamental issues are addressed.
Gold will increase in value until it is stabilized by being reincorporated into the world monetary system, the very beginnings of which we are already seeing today. No paper fiat monetary system has ever avoided its eventual and inevitable demise in collapse --- unless one is really willing to believe that, despite hundreds of historical examples to the contrary, "this time it's different!"
You DO like to keep propping up and then knocking down those strawmen, don't you?
And I guess that is the BEST that can be said for the unbacked, purely fiat, money-by-force-of-government US dollar. "Look, my shit, right now, doesn't smell quite as bad as all the others!" What a glowing endorsement!
What's that, strawman argument #3? Really, Nadler, you are going to have to do better than that! Again with the false dichotomy that either things remain as they are (impossible), or it's "Mad Max". You conveniently neglect to mention the infinitude of far more likely scenarios in which we see serious financial upheaval or monetary collapse (as have so many societies in just the last 100 years) and yet manage to forestall the appearance of roaming cannabilistic zombie hordes. What a disingenuous asshat you are!
Who says that it will be in a "small amount of time"? The process has been ongoing for several decades, and may go on for several more. Or it could just end in a sudden collapse -- it would certainly not be thge first time in history that such has happened. Your whole argument consists of the logical fallacy called "appeal to authority" --- "We are so big/powerful/rich, it just CAN'T happen to us!" Well yes, it can.
But I'm sure that the Soviets will be very happy to hear that they have nothing to fear from political upheaval and financial collapse as well. Oh, and the next time you are in Rome, please say "hello" to Emperor Constantine XXXII for me too.
Oh, Johnny!
You've donned a new disguise and rejoined the brigade!
DXY- compares dollar to other fiats
Gold is real money, that is why I buy.. every fiat currency in history has failed
Just because every fiat in history has failed doesn't mean the the dollar is going to fail any time in the near future, or even in 100 years.
Sure, it might fail someday. It took the Roman empire 500 years for their currency to fail, for example.
The DXY is pretty much stable since 1986. It was better in the late 90s when we had an economy that was better, and now it's back to the Reagan era levels. As our currency falls, so does everybody else's. In fact, our dollar is rising in comparison to other currencies.
a lesson in history and gold
Having lived the last half century of it, perhaps only Murray Pollitt of Toronto mine finance house Pollitt & Co. could put the current gold market into the perspective of history as well as he has done in his latest client letter. The current market, Pollitt writes, reminds him of the market in 1972, the eve of its explosion -- and back then there were no derivatives, mine production wasn't struggling as it is now, and there was no developing world making huge new demands for commodities. Pollitt's letter is headlined "Lessons of History" and he has generously consented for GATA to share it with you here:
http://www.gata.org/files/PollittMarketLetter-04-19-2010.pdf
So he sells gold for a living, eh? Or he sells finance to miners?
I'm not sure what he does, but... it seems like he has an interest in being a permabull.
Still, I read the letter, and it's somewhat informative. Kinda biased in my opinion, but I'm biased too, so whatever. I don't make my money by being biased though.
sinclair site
gold index . and whats really happining
The Gold Currency Index closed sharply higher today, breaking out to a new all-time high. Although gold in US dollar terms does not yet reflect it, gold as an international currency is now trading at a new high for the secular bull market from 2001.
The next technical objective of this move would be a strong weekly close on Friday, as that would confirm the recent long-term breakout on the weekly chart.
Technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts are becoming increasingly bullish, so a continuation of this rally is likely.
Sorry dude. The chart is not bullish at all. On the monthly, you're looking at a rising wedge, or ending diagonal pattern with MACD bearish divergences from the previous high.
On the weekly chart, you're looking at a bearish overthrow of the upper trendline via a smaller ending diagonal. Same divergences apply.
We can disagree with our TA, but I assure you that we're going to see correction in the overextended chart of gold soon.
You guys! It's like the tired old story of blind men describing an elephant. Charts show whatever your preconceived bias want them to show. Like how love distorts the traits of the object of your affection. If charting were a science there would be no markets to trade.
I believe in TA. I also believe in supply and demand. This chart looks extended and some retracing/consolidating is due. However, in 10 years, FWIW I will be stunned if gold is less than it is now.
thelastcanary.blogspot.com
You may or may not be correct.
Just remember, it can't rain forever, and gold is insurance against the rain.
Remember how it went from 850 in the early 80's, when the economy was bad, to 250, when the economy was good.
I have no reason to believe that it won't do the same thing again when the economy recovers.
How do you propose an economy that produces very little of value recovers in real terms? Moreover, Volcker had to raise rates to 10+% to break inflation's "back" then. Do you believe that Bernanke will do that or that it is even possible without cataclysmic results?
There is NO recovery possible under the current failing monetary paradigm --- that is what you keep conveniently overlooking, or refusing to acknowledge. Any chance of economic recovery is DEAD until this fiat regime collapses and our monetary system is put on an honest and sound footing. All futile Keynesian attempts to do anything else will just be plowing the sea.
golds long term charts.
http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1272435120.php
One has to take the Aden girls seriously, whether one agrees with their conclusion or not.
I see that MB didn't take the bait. ...and it has some of his favorite things: CHARTS!
That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard and an idiotic TA chart.
You used 2 points to construct an ED??? Calling this an overthrow? You use a MACD divergence on a strong up day? Foolish
Are you serious? LOL. You can't really read charts, can you?
First, that's not my chart. Second, you obviously don't know how to read charts.
You can't compare a "strong up day" to a multi-month bearish MACD and RSI divergence from a previous high. That doesn't even make sense on a logical level, let alone from a TA perspective.
As far as your "two points" to make an ED... hahaha... do you know anything? As long as a trendline isn't broken, it remains the trend. If it's overthrown with a smaller ED, it's most likely a blow off top and bearish.
Look buddy, how about you post a bullish chart for gold, and I'll read it. I'm always all about looking at alternative counts and trendlines.
Based on the rest of what you said though, I'd be skeptical of your TA abilities to begin with. Still, I'm willing to look at your bullish chart if you can find one...
MB, I'd be interested in your take on this chart:
http://i42.tinypic.com/mmzsc1.jpg
I find it interesting and curious at the same time.
Too good to be true?
sinclair and the 1650 gold
http://jsmineset.com/2010/04/27/in-the-news-today-526/
Somebody drew a cartoon, and that's supposed to prove that gold will be higher?
With all due respect, I'm sorry, I just don't buy it. I could draw some shit too. Glenn Beck does every day. It doesn't mean that he knows what he's talking about either.
How about a bullish chart or something? Or a strong reason for fundamental values at these levels?
in 2006 sinclair gave the fundemental underpinnings for a development that would take gold to 1650and higher '
the 5 pillers do just that
. somehow your idea of what is the world of gold , differs from the likes of sinclair he has a million dollar bet . his insight will be pretty near on target
by the way he called for 1650 gold some ten years ago.
you may find that sinclair does not suffer fools lightly.
and with some fifty years in gold with nothing to sell,, but give free information ,
your whole premise is based on a spotty and incomplete information hole.
it is pretty easy to sit their spouting language THAT is repeated ad newseum by the power fiat brokers ,,
another thing to look out and see what is really happening in opposite direction to your senseless understanding ,
trying all the time to say it is not cloudy and rainy, while wiping moisture off your face , and saying it just cant happen ,,
in all my years of experience (son your time will come ) , unemployed , never having created a business. paid wages , raised a family,
and now take on the likes of richard russsel . jim sinclair and the whole mises austrian economic reality ,.. just brushing it aside ,
doesnt work .. maybe the kidos in the 202 business 3 hour school segment buy this stuff ,lol
the whole gold business screams bullish
of course your opinion and a dollar buys a macdonald coffee.
the best thing to do. is the time element
gold either keeps going up as a hedge against the ceaseless printing , or it settles and goes down ,,
best to just keep A lid on it. your point has been taken
its hogwash lol
so time will be the arbitur . it will tell the story until then it's you said he said they said
and we all have the time .
end of story ..
Euro Gold Bitches!
Speaking of central banks....
Martin Armstrong has a new release with some interesting perspectives on the Fed.
The Paradox of Solution
http://www.usafreecall.com/The-Paradox-of-Solution-4-18-10.pdf
I'm reminded (which means I sometimes forget) that the "real" problem is not the Fed, nor necessarily the bottom feeding critters in DC, it is the people behind the curtain moving both of these pieces around the playing board.
And why can't the two entities be populated by the men and wimmin who belong to both?
The cross directorships of most of these entities, those visible and not, look the same to me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe
...the trend is your friend.
Maybe the U.S.A. needs to start changing the camo schemes on itsr weapon systems from desert sand back to European woodland.
The army runs on Diesel fuel, and Europe has none, with exception of russia, and the Nordic region. The USA would be better off taking over control of Venesuela, or just having Mexico sign over the deed. Then we wouldn't have to worry about that pesky border anymore.
Sgt,
Obviously you do not live in Texas, or the SW.
I live in a FAR N Tx city of approx 77k Pop.........
Median Income is $90k+, Demo is 89% aged below 50yrs.........
Everytime I stop at any Home Depot, Lowes,7-11, I am the minority.
Our city is less than 10% ethnic minorities.
That was meant with 75% sarcasm. I know it's a problem down in that area. I've seen in detail the border patrol operations with my own eyes through alot of the Texas, NM, and other sectors. It's a shitty situation. My leanings are very libertarian though. I wonder if we didn't have these entitlement programs and the drug traffic if it would be much of a problem. I'm afraid of giving the government anymore power. For instance, this thing in AZ being able to violate the 4th amendment, and demand papers for anyone who looks hispanic and poor... unintended consequences from that could be a motherfucker.
If there were no freebies, and they wanted to come to the USA to innovate something, and better their family through hard work, I can't blame them. I'd do the same thing.
Remember, anybody who's served, are serving, or who have taken that oath: The oath is to protect and defend the constitution, The WHOLE THING. To change requires a constitutional amendment. That ratty old parchment might just save all of our asses over the next ten years.
www.oathkeepers.org
It is so obvious, using Prohibition as an example, that prohibiting the use/sale/cultivation of marijuana is a HUGE waste of time and a drain on the U.S. budget for no gains whatsoever. They can start by switching the classification of cannibis from a Schedule 1 to Schedule 5.
The draconian philosophy attacking marijuana is so outdated and wrong it is clear to almost anyone who is not born before the 1950s. And even then people don't understand why it's illegal and tobacco and alcohol, which are far more dangerous, get a pass. If there was any proof needed of corporate influence on congress that alone should be enough.
And all the money wasted chasing down the "evil pot smokers and dealers" only makes the drug more valuable to the criminals giving them more incentive to make more money increasing their risk and thus paranoia and willingness to use violence.
Just imagine having all the billions back from the war on drugs and instead generating tax revenue from crops of hemp, to make clothing, oil, food, pape and so many other things. It doesn't take a genuis to see that the U.S. is not wrong but stupid for its policies regarding most drugs but especially cannibis.
But congress allows all the big pharmas to lobby and get their drugs passed and advertised in every form of media only to find out some time down the road they are ineffective or harmful even.
I just don't get it. Hemp is green gold.
If your businesses and people would quite hiring them they would have to go home.
Gold Hündinnen!!!
chiennes d'or!!!
cadelas ouro!!!
perras de oro!!!
Gold Schlampen!!! no one ever says "Hündinnen"
As well as the fact that it isn't "of" but an insult after.
Not, "BITCHES OF GOLD!!!"
Yes, GOLD [YOU] BITCHES!!!
ORO PUTAS!!!
OURO VAGABUNDAS!!!
D'OR CONNASSES!!!
(I don't know about Deutsch)
DE L'OR, CONNASSES
Guld slampor!!!
Gull ludder!!!
Kultanartut!!!
Aww, forgot, Sweden and Norway aren't in the eurozone. But Finland is.
χρυσóς σκúλες!!?
Zloto kurwy!!!
Zlato, kuje !!!
At last the market grows some brains
Don't know if it's growing brains or simply using the brains it was born with. Either way, the same effect is experienced.
We've been slapped around so much the past 6-9 months that I don't trust a sell off in the least bit. Is there such a thing as "declining a wall of worry"?
That's what these cornered rats get for propping up the USD by knocking the Euro.
I am happy to be a Gold Bitch.
Gold may be a good wealth hedge, this I do not dispute, nor do I dispute that owning physical bullion en masse is a good way to crash the system, but it is not a solution. A virtual currency, free and transparent by and for the People's benefit, is the way to wealth creation for society; it is also the only way to a society free from the notion of taxation. Please do not forget that the US became an engine of trade on colonial scrip, and that it was King George who brought the issue to a head by demanding gold not paper.
Just tell me how many of your mythic currency units I need to trade for an ounce of gold. Good luck with that by the way.
Mark 4:12
...so that, they may be ever seeing but never perceiving, and ever hearing but never understanding;...
Know thy History, sir.
Moralizing and didactic digressions found in religious texts do not constitute history. No professional historian would consider the Christian Bible (or the Hebrew Bible, Rig Veda, Koran, Avesta, etc.) as a historical text. At best, it may contain some historical elements, projected and warped through a very thick political-ideological lens and obscured by centuries, if not millenia, of mistranslation, revision, and censorship and selective editing (e.g. of the sort perpetrated at the Nicean Council). It's like a children's game of "telephone", played out over centuries.
How is any history book any different?
Well for example, we can look at the work of one Greco-Roman historian and check his facts against the work of one or more other Greco-Roman historians, as well as against enormous amounts of archaelogical and numismatic evidence, not to mention written and material evidence from cultures that interacted with the Greco-Roman sphere. There will be some disagreement in their portrayals of court intrigues and other sketchy events, but overall the picture of major events in Greco-Roman times will be consistent, and we can say with a high degree of certainty that such-and-such event happened more or less as described. Keep in mind, these men were not trying to gain a religious cult following or enrich themselves through their writings, which were generally undertaken during their retirement years, as a way to remain sharp and focused in old age.
Howard Zinn is maybe a decent historian, but in "A People's History..." he barely touches the bankster barons. In my opinion, he idolizes JP Morgan, who, in my opinion, is the dirtiest downlow son of a bitch on this side of the Atlantic.
Another problem is Chomsky. Dude was either blackmailed or lost his mind when it came to 9/11.
History is portrayed subjectively. Interestingly, there is nothing further from the fact. There are facts. We find them. We show them. Let the truth be free.
Chomsky is smart. He has his reasons for what he does. My guess is that he knew that anyone suggesting 911 conspiracy would be labeled 'nuts' (rightfully or not) and didn't want to join that club.
Fair enough, for at the the moment of the catasrophy that is a fair enough assessment by both of you. However, where is he now that it has ALL been debunked? America needs him, yet he hides from Darth Cheney still. Grow a pair Chomsky!
It's a legitimate question CC. Gold elimates counterparty risk. Tally sticks might be your wealth, but at the end of the day, if the system changes, who wants a stupid piece of notched wood? They tried to "tally stick" gold, and gold said "I don't think so".
Free and Transparent don't go with human nature
paper... not worth a continental
+1
When you create a complex system, someone will find a way to game it, ALWAYS. Gold is as simple as it gets, and is IMPOSSIBLE to corrupt, so long as you don't try to use paper gold as though it were the real thing. This includes US dollars after gold confiscation.
Impossible? No. It is likely that some "experts" somewhere possess some gold-glad tungsten proof.
Tale as old as time.
a virtual currency by and for the people benefiet lol
such keynesian clap trap ...
the only progress will be made by production, savings , and the division of labor, ...
with laws enforced . then the people can work , and save, or dullard and rest ,
wealth creation is not a faceless event for all society ,
society is the one person at a time providing for his best interests ,
some people really have strange noggins of mush
Counterfeiting the original Colonial currency notes was punishable by pain of death. Maybe the same fate could befall the makers of our fiat currency. That would put a stop to it.
It's a BUBBLE! *sarcasm*
Yeah, cuz everybody owns gold.
Mark Dice tries to sell $1100 one ounce gold coin for $50; no takers:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk
Well it doesn't take many gold bugs to shove a squirrel up these governments currency manipulatiing counterfeiting asses to put a serious monkey wrench in things.
The euro problems are the monkey hammers, america is the squirrel shovers. Together government will see a very nasty version of wild kingdom NOT sponsered by Mutual of Omaha.
LOL - and this time Jim makes Marlin do the dirty work!
States have to make new budgets and they are going to be FORCED to do massive layoffs.
Monkey hammer in May
Squirrel Shove in June
Real resolution of conflict of interest in July begins.
As Hulk pointed out in the other gold thread without knowing what he was really saying. Fractional reseving works good as long as you have real physical growth of the underlying assets. Rome began it's downfall as soon as it stopped pulling tons of gold out of the Italian mountainside. The world will begin it's downfall as soon as the gold and oil dry up. This leaves 2 options kill a bunch of people and begin a "growth" situation that more closely matches the bullshit economic system or deal with frikkin reality.
We've had a fractional reserve system in shrinkage going on 2 years now. It will distort everything it touches until the distortions become so apparent a fool can see them. All people have to do is "think" inflation and it begins to happen.
Hey!
Thanks hulk you really made me see what peak oil is going to do this place.
i wanted to buy at 540 € in 2008. Instead i wasted my money on a 4,5% pa deal... so what, capitalism is a whore.
OK, we all know how phys gold (and somewhat, phys silver) did during the first crash....and we all know what the gold/silver stock prices did, too....
What say y'all on the action on miners/explorers in equity markets? Do they drop with rest of the markets? Or is now the time that gold/silver and related shares become the "safer" haven within the equity markets, themselves?
I have the same question. I don't see the miners move in the same direction or volatility as the underlying metal.
That will be the PLACE TO BE, when every Tom,Dick, and Harry is going/talking about PM's.......
That will signal the Parabolic spike Rev Up.
Agreed. Look for that HUGE spike to commence in August/September. Untill then, they will only begin to pull away from the markets. I do not mean "begin" lightly, either. Pulling away is pulling away. he he.
PS, it will take a year for Dicks and Harrys to speak of this. Most of humanity will be mindfucked thinking about how paper is not worth the ink on it. Quick story, my friend's boyfriend the other day smashed his laptop on the ground when I was discussing FIAT and peak oil. I have also had a date end by the girl not being able to understand that the doelarr was not backed by gold. She was from Iran. I do not know why that would upset her. She was stupid though.
She was obviously upset because having grown up in Iran, she probably admired the United States. You destroyed her most important illusion.
You are coooooorect! That is exactly what happened. She began talking mumbo jumbo propaganda, and I had grown bored, and I broke her paradigm. It was quite fun honestly.
We all know that girls who go on dates dress like floozies, and cause great earthquakes. Why was she upset? Profound guilt. This is the correct answer.
It's hard to tell for sure but today is really mounting a lot of evidence that maybe that's the case going forward.
DXY crossing 82 and gold still up at least $8?
That's fucking beautiful.
I worry about peak oil and production cost. But then again I'm a value investor and look long term.
I worry about the same, concerning oil...and gold...and silver...and iron...and uranium...and women...and water...and food...and land....
I am not educated in Chart reading and Technical analysis, so I have to rely solely on my understanding of common sense and gutfeeling. Therefore, I will not invest in anything that does not make sense to me fundamentally.
The action in the stockmarkets since March 2009 does not make sense to me. I think that the movements have been predominantly supported by shorter term momentum driven speculative position making rather than being based on an evaluation of long term fundamental strengths in the companies. I also think that the action has been fuelled by a lot of borrowed money.
To me this means that if control of the stockmarket was lost, and it were to take a serious plunge again, initially everything would be hit. This is simply because many positions would have to be liquidated, regardless of quality, because they are based on borrowed money and short term momentum reasoning. I don't think that good miners would fall as far as empty shell accounting fairy companies, but fall they probably would nontheless.
For now, I am preparing by doing due diligence on interesting miners and explorers, so I can have my list ready, should a serious correction materialize eventually. I think it will, and by then, hopefully I will be ready to buy some good companies. I also expect that waiting for a correction would provide me with an up to date market vote on perceived quality between the individual miners/explorers to support my own due diligence.
Of course there is a chance that mining shares will skip the prelude and take off to the upside with no correction first, in which case I will probably bite my knuckles a bit. However, that is a price that I will be happy to pay to sleep well at night and to avoid becoming a bagholder for the misfits that are currently playing da-big-boyz-string-puppet game for money and power using the lifeblood, hard work and future prospects of all the rest of us as stake.
Look at QMM and RVM.
Thank you ;-) I will do that.
Just curious. What's your idea of a safe way to store your money now while you wait? Even the decision to put cash in the mattress, pay off your mortgage, etc. is a financial one. Personally, I don't find safeguarding savings, and trying to maintain purchasing power, is an easy thing to do at all these days. Many
American savers have been lucky so far vis a vis the banks and the value of the dollar. Will that last? For how long? Something tells me we 'aint in Kansas anymore.
@ JiangxiDad. Thank you for asking. 2008-2009 was a huge wake-up call for me. Before the credit crunch, I simply did not realize just how interconnected and obscenely leveraged the global financial system really is. As a consequense I have pretty much lost confidence in the long term sustainability of the financial system, because even "good banks" will be impacted greatly, when the "bad banks" eventually evaporates.
My line of thinking is to keep only a very reduced level of savings within the banking system, because banks will do fine for transactions. For preservation of my savings until the system has been purged of bad paper obligations, I have translated my money into primarily physical gold, physical silver and physical cash. Some held close to home and some held in non-bank vaults abroard.
Apart from that, I have sold my house, redeemed my mortgage and thus eliminated all my debt, and I have liquidated my pensionsfund and paid a stiff penalty for that to enjoy the freedom of being ultra liquid and able to fully control my own money.
The only "speculative paper play" that I intend to go into is to hedge an employment contract, that I had to sign in USD, and although the EUR looks shaky now, I doubt that the USD will continue the good performance much longer, so I will probably make a parallel investment in an alternative currency to balance my USD exposure in the employment contract.
Just like you - I do not find it easy to figure out what is going on either, and I am still on a steep learning curve trying to keep up with the information stream. Occasionally I ask myself, if I am being too extreme in my actions, but on the bottom of my stomach, I know that we have truly reached the limit, that the system is broken and that the applied medicine is bad. And in this context, these preparations are just good old fashioned common sense. Now I risk losing some. In my previous situation, I risked losing everything.
In this environment being passive is the riskier option. It really is that simple. If you do not feel confortable with Gold and Silver, physical cash in various currencies in a bank depositbox close to home, that you can pick up very quickly, if things get murky, is another option. Or different bank accounts in several different non-related banks. For me, however, the key point is to avoid electronic balances of size.
SVM, HMY and PHYS as well...all inexpensice.
there seems to be something the markets don't understand. let me summarize for you...
The fallout in Eurozone is "going to be painful to some lenders, but it is largely contained."
At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the Eurozone markets seems likely to be contained,"
(the Eurozone fallout) ``will not affect the economy overall.''
"This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."
"I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system."
I've seen similar statements about similar problems somewhere closer to the USofA....possibly 2 or so years ago. Let me do some digging and see what transpired after...
Green Shoots
You forgot this quote
My good friends, this is the second time there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Now I recommend you go home, and sleep quietly in your beds
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Czech President Vaclav Klaus told German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that the real cause of Greece's crisis lies in the euro and not in the country's economic policy, the paper quoted him as saying in an advance edition of its Wednesday publication.
The European currency union has failed, as the euro hasn't held its promises, Klaus was quoted as saying.
"In terms of economic growth and the economic stability the euro zone has already failed long ago," he said.
The real cause of the crisis in Greece is not the Greek economic policy, but it is "the euro that causes this tragedy," the paper cited Klaus as saying.
Mr. Klaus is one of the very few European sane presidents. It seems if you want quality these days, you have to to to Central/Eastern Europe, to the former Soviet satellites (they do have their bad apples, too). Western Europe is infested with Social Democrats, Red-greens and worse. Maybe it is the estrogen in the tap water?
Up! Up! Up!
the flight to "quality" lasted about 2 hours.
time to buy all the garbage you can. the melt up is well underway at this point.
again, all risk being thrown out the door.
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice!
Shit. What do you want?
Congress and Goldman to conga their way off of Capitoline Hill!
Beetlejuice - Jump In The Line - Harry Belafonte:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVN-5-I5iBo
Gold trading opposite to industrial metals as well...very interesting.
The quality trade is going to be like sovereign dominos. Weak nations are going to come under increasing speculative attack in this race to the bottom. And, the strength or weakness is in ability to defend the currency.
As long as we have the petrodollar, the USD remains the strongest. At this point, nobody can asset-back because their holdings would come under redemption attack almost immediately. Bigtime game of sovereign chicken.
Anyone know why Silver isn't going along for the ride?
Rumor that partial liquidation of GSCI could happen. Gold exempt.
I was thinking the same thing. Ultimately it's fate is the same as Au - only really matters if you are still looking to take physical delivery before the music stops.
Silver is the ultimate hybrid. Silver tracks oil verbatim on long term charts, stays within range short term, and overall maintains close proximity to gold. Silver is easier to manipulate, because it is not held by central banks, has not been since the late 19th century when London told everybody that the pound sterling was just a name. What is in a name? Shit, what is in a number???
Larr...Lira...Pound....ALL MEAN "WEIGHT". They told you the currentseas have weight. Put it on the scale BS, lets see what happens when we put gold on the other side.
Despite popular rhetoric of "petro-doelarrs", gold and silver are the only REAL currentseas. Throw platinum in if you want, for a REAL good time. Oh, and my point is that oil is down, so so is silver.
Yeah the Pound Sterling at that time was a gold sovereign.
Options Expiry
It's options expiry day for the May silver contract. Da Boyz are - trying - to bash it down as usual.
The original GBP was a pound of sterling silver - you need 12 of them to buy an ounce now...
Ed Steer has this to say about silver:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php
Just tell me how many of your mythic currency units I need to trade for an ounce of gold. Good luck with that by the way.
Fuck you I won't do what you tell me. Fuck you I won't do what you tell me. Fuck you I won't do what you tell me. Motherfucker!
I think that about sums it up.
Rage Against The Machine: Killing In The Namehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNzIKoAy2pk&feature=related
Only hindu cows are immune to the effects.
That explains the odor.
More cowbell!
That made me laugh out loud. Thanks. +1,000,000 fiatscos
Love their music.
must be really smart money
Consolidation/correction in US markets likely to sustain into early to mid May. Then look for one more melt up (into Dow 12K?). Focus will then shift to U.S.'s debt problems, gold will then blow away the 1,226 high; but miners i'm not sure about.
Sounds plausible.
the miners will explode like they always do when gold goes crazy. First they'll go down with the market, then they'll go through the roof. It won't be any different now than it was in 1996, or 1980 (and one time in the mid eighties as well, I believe).
Just uploaded a Dow weekly chart showing a bearish broadening top pattern.
And Euro is breaking down now.
MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
Hey Crabcakes--that was good stuff.
#319848 #319954
To Johnny Bravo: Yeah, you might have picked the 1220 because of the FIB retracement, question is did you make any money from that prediction. Second: price action, and particularly in the futures, suggest we'll touch the previous high soon.
young .. bravo is an out of work mouth.
his analysis covers the diaper on the end of a sliver of dried twigs.
just let the guy rest in his unemployment checks .
time will show his anal remarks are more bluster than reality.
a person does not have to explain to a twerp the existence of gold .
He blathers, he defuses a load of spit ,
he believes his understanding is way greater than a richard russell , a jim Sinclair , and some of the best minds in the Austrian economics camp.
this guy has nothing to protect . save a state paid education class, a touch of mini egg timer time . and the ability to form words .. that in their aggregate have zero understanding of economics of monetary policy . of the buying of gold by all nations now.
fart in the wind comes to mind.
+1
All you people who need gold. I've got a special IMF fund set up. Just call and we'll give you paper reciepts and charge you storage fees. Plenty of non existant gold to meet demand. Just call the Imma Mother Fucker fund we'll give you that warm fuzzy feeling of pretend gold ownership.
Feel free to sell if off if you want to. I hear Bank of New York runs alot of import/export business.