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Flip Flop Roundtip: Goldman Cuts Brent Price Target, A Month After Hiking, A Month After Cutting

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Uber-Flip flopper extraordinaire Goldman Sachs just cut its Brent target  price a month after hiking its price target to $130, a month after cutting it to $105 (and just as we predicted two hours before the Goldman announcement). The latest number from David Greely: $105-$107/bbl. To wit: "The International Energy Agency announced today that its member countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks over a period of 30 days. The IEA has coordinated this release, only the third in its history, in response to the ongoing loss of Libyan light sweet crude oil production and the impact that the resulting higher crude oil prices are having on the world economy. We estimate that a 60 million barrel release by the end of July has the potential to reduce our 3-month Brent crude oil price target by $10-12/bbl, to $105-107/bbl. 125/bbl." Full bizarro day report below, although all that matters is that Goldman is buying Brent again, after the "GS vs Client" scorecard now reads 3:0.

Goldman Brent Cut

 

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Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:12 | 1395695 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Goldman Sucks.    must be the same desk incharge of euro trading....

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:13 | 1395699 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

They must have heard Lindsey Williams talked to Mr X

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:13 | 1395701 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Where is everybody going?

I must hurry after them for I am their leader...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:19 | 1395727 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Uh huh......Thius should have a half life of about one day.
I'm going back to sleep now. Wake me up when the pizza guy gets here.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:30 | 1395732 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I can't wait until someone credible does a empirically credible study of what the return of consistently fading each and every call by the Vampire Squid would yield.

I would do it myself if I had the appropriate tools and time, but I would bet it would be one of the more profitable and consistent basic strategies of all time.

After all, if Timberwolf-Abacus-et al taught us that if Goldman intentionally screws over "highly valued clients," just imagine what they feel free to do with non-clients vis-a-vis free and public shout outs.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:36 | 1395802 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

+1

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:41 | 1395824 reload
reload's picture

Did anybody here one of the Goldman London shills on BBC Radio 4 yesterday morning. Using some sofball questions to explain to the sheeple why Greece MUST absolutely not default. I would love to have been in the interview chair.

When are employees of structured poducts group going to face criminal charges for knowingly and misleadingly engineering the Greek balllance sheet into a condition that made it able to join the Euro in the first place?

Do you think your firm will even exist when it has paid compensation and punitive damages to the taxpayers of Europe?

I occasionaly meet Goldmanites and used to think they were a bit odd, a bit too dedicated, a bit too pleased with themselves but probably fairly smart. Now I just think CRIMINAL.

 

 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:53 | 1395888 Hungry For Knowledge
Hungry For Knowledge's picture

I for one have just decided to test that theory and bought BNO - long Brent crude.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:09 | 1396326 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Better yet, let’s examine Goldman’s proprietary oil trading book in detail to see what happened just prior to each one of these flip flop forecasts and how much money they made off their inside knowledge and front running their advice to clients. You can’t have 100+ profitable trading days in a row without a little market manipulation to back your public case and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.   

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:29 | 1395757 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

"I shall do the opposite"

George Costanza

VP of Operations

Commodities Desk

Goldman Sachs

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:26 | 1395762 -273
-273's picture

Über or ueber : )

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:35 | 1395769 hambone
hambone's picture

Amazing - if you have a fixed "reserve" of oil and you draw down for one month to push prices down, let's look at the impacts -

1- price down means more consumption

2- reservoir must (likely t/b) be refilled over time (effective lessening of supply over future months)

3- and like most programs, once you start this nonsense you can't stop or else the price "snaps" back and causes a painful adjustment to consumers

Funny, of course nowhere in here is there any market based "supply vs. demand" solution or perhaps even just a cursory glance at the dollar devaluation impact of dollar based petro pricing (thanks BB for making it clear you have nothing to do w/ rising oil prices but are responsible for rising asset prices...what a fucking dickhead you are to be able to say that with a straight face).

So, once started, can't stop...continuing lessening of supply, continuing over demand, continuing drawdown of one time reserves.  This is genius...f'ing a?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:35 | 1395793 -273
-273's picture

shhhh, someone might hear you! That's rational thought, common sense man, which ain't so common anymore, except maybe on ZH and in a few other enlightened exploding vacuums. Actually, I would guess the main reason is Obama needs to get the prices down before elections, rather than due to any long term thinking.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:45 | 1395819 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's 500K bpd which has to be replaced.  

This is not magic.  Oil is underground and it doesn't matter where.  You can extract it and you can burn it and after you do IT IS GONE.

Why is this difficult?

About the only thing one can imagine is in play here is an attempt to get inflation low enough that Bernanke will do QE3.  Obama knows fiscal contraction will happen.  Only Bernanke can undo that.

He's making a big mistake, though.  The price snapback will be during the campaign.

Oh, and btw, can we now put to bed the silliness about "Cushing is awash with oil.  There's plenty of oil.  It's all speculation."

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:29 | 1395774 buzzsaw99
Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:42 | 1395814 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Wait, won't all those newly laid-off people have more time to drive to their summer homes?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:51 | 1395854 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Lindsey Williams on AJS 22 June 2011:

Elite have kept their timeline - at the end of 2012 the dollar must be destroyed. The US will default on it's national debt. The NWO will come with a new currency backed by gold (partly I think) and they call it the Petro Dollar which figures what will be the rest of the dollar back up - OIL!.

Silver & Gold

Till August prices stay the same but Sept - Dec. priced will be hiked 20%-25%

Oil

Oil kept around $5 a gallon the rest of this summer. Will be hiked to $150 - $200 a barrel later.

Largest oil rigg in the world 'The Liberty' is moved to Alaska West Dock near Gull Island, Lisburne Zone. They gonna drill 8 miles deep. Googlemap Gull Island , Bingmap Gull Island

12 May 2011 a Bill quietly past congress with a 243 - 179 vote which gave BP the drilling permissions.

It cost them 16 cents the barrel to get the oil out which will go on the market later for about $150 - $200 a barrel.

Middle-East - Libya

The elite have a target date to finish off the Middle-Eastern countries and Libya (=North Africa).

- Libya
- Yemen
- Jordan
- Syria
- Saudi-Arabia will be last, Saudi-Arabia will be last, Saudi-Arabia will be last!

The elite have to be ready to pump oil from the other sources (Alaska, Bakan) when the cut off the oil from the Middle-east.

Main target is China by taking control of the major oil sources.

(btw That's how the US pulled Japan into WWII by cutting off their supplies)

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:08 | 1395937 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Another excellent plan by the Yanks.

Lets the Chinese fill their SPR at lower levels, so the Yanks can buy theirs back at higher levels.

Obama never short on brilliance.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 19:38 | 1396980 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

But long on golf!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:10 | 1395970 candyman
candyman's picture

I dont get it, there is no war going on in Libya. This is just crazy!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:11 | 1395973 sabra1
sabra1's picture

with all the corruption, they say they would release all these barrels, but, but, what if they don't? you would have to place a nun at the spigot, then tell her to set it loose, isn't that so?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:36 | 1396183 gkm
gkm's picture

Funny GS stock isn't rallying.  Must be saving up for another bribe.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:42 | 1396199 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
  • First, even preliminary data often become available only with a lag. For example, it may take months for the first estimate of this month’s global oil production to be released.
  • Second, the initial data releases are continuously revised. It takes successive data revisions until we know, to the best of our ability, the true level of oil production in the current month. Little is known about the nature of these revisions in oil market data or about how data revisions and delays in data availability affect the out-of-sample accuracy of oil price forecasts.

In recent research with Christiane Baumeister (Baumeister and Kilian 2011), we aim to address this problem. We construct a comprehensive monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for January 1991 through December 2010, each covering data extending back to January 1973. Backcasting and nowcasting methods are used to fill gaps in the real-time data sets. This database allows the construction of real-time forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models.

 

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6678

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1396217 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5Xe_ATNWQQ

Al Bartlett on energy consumption versus population

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVSCA0z8ZjM&feature=related

Albert Bartlett - Blind Spot

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:41 | 1396227 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuLjGQQ-jg

The Business of Climate Change Conference 2009 (Jeff Rubin, Peak Conventional / Affordable Oil)

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:45 | 1396230 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

All market forecasters are always correct in their calls.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:42 | 1396231 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

must be tough on the poor banksters, getting whipped around, like that. 

(my captcha is in the red zone; this might be a while...)

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:29 | 1396310 Mr Kurtz
Mr Kurtz's picture

We were importing 44,000 barrels of oil a day from Libya. At that rate, it would take approximately 682 days to import 30 million barrels. So the question becomes, exactly who are we releasing (giving) 30 million barrels of strategic oil to? Anybody out there at ZH have an idea?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:06 | 1396331 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

80 million barrels? Chicken scratch. BTW what higher oil prices? Its dropping, and btw I thought everyone loved crude at $130...what happened?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:16 | 1396343 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Goldman 'Catfish Mouth' Sucks... though there is a potential other orifice they are talking out of, their >>insert orifice here<<

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:32 | 1396429 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Great idea releasing the reserves. Yup, this is going to work. How desperate is Obama, well his polls keep sinking and the man wants another 4 year vacation for him and his family on our nickle. What a farce.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:42 | 1396443 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

can sb please explain to me: EVERYBODY knows that GS is f***ing clients, non-clients and past, present and future taxpayers of the entire planet. EVERYTHING they say and do serves the purpose of maximising their bonuses. So my question is: WHY does anybody direct his or her attention towards any piece of crap they publish?? It is like watching a rapist raping somebody. Why would you watch, unless you are perverted? I really do not get it. The same question applies of course for any TBTF bank.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:47 | 1396846 Madhouse
Madhouse's picture

Sell = Buy and Buy = Sell. Any client who does not know that now is a fucking idiot...

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