FMX Connect Sees Gold Hitting $1,550 Within 8 Weeks

Tyler Durden's picture

From FMX Connect:

FmxConnect uses several proprietary indicators to predict volatility trends. One indicator, the TrendVol actually gives directional signals as well.

Simply stated, if this week closes above 1416, there is a high likelihood of a 75 to 175 move higher in gold over the next 2 months. Although if the indicator hits, we'd expect the move to happen in a more compressed time. The signal does not usually waste time letting you know if it is right or wrong.

The indicator combines Bollinger bands, implied volatility, skewness, and historical volatility to determine speed and direction of a potential move. The actual calculations involve using these indicators to create and proprietary oscillators.

Volatility breathes (i.e. Bollinger bands) and FMX Connect believes that Gold volatility is getting ready to exhale in a big way.

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The Future Trade

The futures/ ETF trade would be to buy gold above 1416 on a weekly settlement or actually before the week is up if you wish to be aggressive. The trigger technically goes off after Friday’s close if we are above 1416. Your stop loss should be placed at this week’s low.

The  Options Trade

J 1500 calls, M 1450/ 1500 call spreads, Z 1500/ 1550 call spreads all offer option choices for different trading tolerances. Note that a large hedge fund has been accumulating the M 1600s, so while they may be the hot ticket, they also are priced at a premium.

The Risk

We prefer to express the trade in straddles or calls that we intend to hedge higher.  Here is why. When the signal hits, the market usually makes its move quickly. But sometimes it hits near a blow-off top.

And while the volatility continues to expand, we get a violent reversal. The short trade comes in if we settle above 1416 this week and then pierce 1371 next week.

Taking Profits

For profit exit we let the market take us out with trailing stops to protect profits after we hit a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio. As options analysts, we like to use statistical risk/reward ratios to put on trades, and that is the basis of this one. It usually gives a 3 to 1 hit when it is right. We usually start to actively take profits at 3 to 1 reward::risk. Other than that it gives you no profit taking levels.

The last 3 times this hit, we had a minimum of 75 dollar rally, and a max of 250.

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tmosley's picture

They must be reading Turd's blog.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Looks like goldmiddlefinger will get it in the shorts, like the good troll that he is........ha ha ha

tmosley's picture

That would be the case if the correlation from the last year holds up exactly.

Over the last 12 months, gold went up $300 (25%), silver went up $17 (110%).  Following the same progression does indeed give a figure of about $50 for silver at that gold price.

Turd Ferguson's picture

OK, I'll go along with that. However, it was a little more challenging to make that prediction back on January 20.

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

 

Sudden Debt's picture

Actually silver between 52 and 56$ into May to June is VERY likely!

And if you compaire the 2006 technicals on silver to today, 59$ is also still very possible before June.

RockyRacoon's picture

I shared this with our Dork from Cork in another comment, but I'll pass it on here.

U. S. Mint still selling the 2010 America The Beautiful silver 5-coin proof sets.   The cost is $32.95 and there is 0.90420 ounces of silver in the set.   At $34 silver that's $30.74 in silver.   So -- figger it out.  You're paying $2.21 over spot for proof U. S. coinage in very nice packaging.   Shipping for any Mint product is $4.95.   I just bought another 25 units and will pay only the $4.95 shipping for the order.  That adds about 20 cents to the price/each.   The advantages of having these on hand should be obvious, but I'll add one more for the paranoid amongst us:  The Gov't will not confiscate these since they are numismatic items and actual legal tender.   They are nice looking as well!

https://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?cata...

RockyRacoon's picture

It's not meant for the big players but it might get one or two folks off the fence.  Most of the anti-silver arguments are muted with this move.   These sets are selling on eBay and a few are even closing at prices higher than the buyer can go to the Mint website and buy them!   This shit just amazes me...

Pool Shark's picture

Thanks Rocky! Just ordered 25 of them myself.

Usually the US mint charges huge premiums on their PM products, but sometimes a sudden rise in the price of silver or gold leaves them selling nearer to spot.

I'm taking advantage of it.

As you say; how often can you buy silver proof coins from the US mint for less than 50 cents over spot per coin including shipping?

RockyRacoon's picture

The Mint can't raise prices at will.   It's a time-consuming process during which they usually just take product down from sale until the increase is granted.   They are just a tad behind the curve on this particular set of coins.   Don't waste your time looking for similar bargains... I've done that for you.   Ain't none.

Buying these sets is akin to hoarding nickels.  Not much down side unless the world falls apart.

tmosley's picture

When you make your new website, I would appreciate it if you would have your own registration system.  I don't post on your blog because I hate what Facebook is now, and I don't know anything about those other services.  I read it several times per day, though.

StychoKiller's picture

I'll second that, I can't always figure out the google logon magic spell(s)

Turd Ferguson's picture

I hear ya, guys. Registration and login issues are primary reason #1 for constructing the new site. It will be made more simple. I promise.

SRV - ES339's picture

To all of above...

I had some problems early on (like everyone else it seems), but I'd advise you to try again... just sign up on Google (very easy), then it's as simple as selecting Google from the comment drop down, post, and fill in the "secret word" (Turd doesn't give out prizes for correct answers though)!

Once you get it, there's really no problem at all.

Best Turd line ever... lol!

Also, I'd like to ask that, in the future, we refrain from using the terms "good entry point" and "Turd's Bottom" in the same sentence. Just sayin...

Temporalist's picture

I refuse to use google...just like apple and face book.  Let them pay me to track my footprints.

Nothing's free bitchez!

vas deferens's picture

Thanks Turd for your Great blog, and all the work your putting into this.  Cheers!!

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Me too...I visit but did register because of the system. Thanks...

Temporalist's picture

TF I also think about posting but my AIM name is long expired and I refuse to use other services as I have too many

 

TomJoad's picture

Well, if they are proprietary, I am sure they must be good.

fmxconnect's picture

we said we own it, we didn't say it was good. but our partners bet wit htheir wallets. feel free to snark though. its cute.

10044's picture

No shit, Jim Sinclair said that 10 years ago

Oh regional Indian's picture

Gold to 1550 means Silver to what?

If the ratio continues it's recent trajectory.....

Wynton 80? Bent on 100?

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/666/

Zero Govt's picture

if Gold goes to $1550 Silver goes to $40

Zero Govt's picture

"putz" is an interesting word coming from a one-eyed lumpy midget isn't it Quasimodo. I'm a putz in the PM's presumably with putzes like yourself. But don't let me question your euphoric bubble mentality with any downside possibilities ...you're going to the sky and on the way i'm going to short your arse and watch you fall.

Peace & Love ...and hope you get your vision back shortly

tmosley's picture

I lol at people who think people look like their avatars.

Also, deflationists.  LOL.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

I for one burnt my cash to keep me warm one night and snapped this picture.

Sent from my iPhone

Caviar Emptor's picture

Gold is in the sweet spot where every alternative is looking shaky. 

In a stunning reversal, the Dollar is no longer the 'flight to safety' go-to play and has been selling off steadily. And US Treasuries have followed the same course. 

New anxieties over the dollar's future fate as reserve currency are rising up, and that in turn makes the status of all other currencies more clouded. 

Inflation? No need to elaborate unless you've been living under a rock. 

Stocks? Increasingly cloudy picture as more hawks voice their opinions against more QE and the Total market valuation is now above 1929 as a % of GDP

BrianOFlanagan's picture

good call.  Vol is still rediculously cheap, good idea to play this with options.

TradingJoe's picture

Why not take it ALL to ALL TIME ULTRA HIGHS and get it over with, give THEM ALL

the wealth in the world and DONE! Then we go hunting!

What a charade of greed and headless moves! We are ALL fucked already!

See Jobs over at APPL, he is a multi billionaire but...sick to death...literally!

Will all the money help him stay alive, I bet not, it may though, help him die in less

pain! Some consolation eh?!

gordengeko's picture

Good lookin out TD.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Jan home sales must be an outlier... Just yesterday we were told little Timmy is 'on top' of the economy...whatever that means.

Scottj88's picture

Don't they know it is going to be 1600 by June 10th?

Anyways, I am leveraged in mining shares to feel the profit (especially silver), while the ponzi scheme still exists....

Read why here:

http://thehardrightedge.com/miningequities/

e_u_r_o's picture

where is eur/usd parity goddamnit

savagegoose's picture

u know i just realised i used to go look at yahoo stock pages, every day. just once when they open and again in afternoon or something., see how american stocks where going.

 

somewhere along the line i just stopped bothering. been looking at gold, silver, a few other metals. and hanging around ZH.seeing whats really going on.

guess the US market dont matter to me any more. its all a fucken lie anyhow.

oh wait isnt there some contrairian investment advice about when everyone curses the stock market, its time to buy?

 

DOT's picture

When everyone runs screaming from a burning building,

is it time to go in ?

Stuart's picture

and for that reason, heaven and earth will be moved by Blythe Masters and the boys to keep it below $1,416.

Crispy's picture

Gold is in a bull market, thats all you need to know.

More genius "analysis" from the sellers of picks and shovels...

BeerGoggles's picture

Yeah so basically, it's a bollinger band and then they create the impression that it has other "proprietary" signals and try and sell it to you.

The word "proprietary" is in a bubble.

fmxconnect's picture

Actually it is truly a prop indicator developed by comparing historical vol to implied vol and creating an oscillator. then when that Proprietary oscillator hits the right spot, we wait for the Bands to expand. when it is rgiht, you know quickly, same when it is wrong. no time wasted. witness today's action.

godzila's picture

75 to 175 that less than 50%

 

missing something ? Waht kind of an indicator is this ?!