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FMX Connect "When A Gold Market Trades Like A Gold Market"
From FMX Connect, whose call a week ago for a break out is materializing just as predicted
Analysis:
During London time and on the comex open risk reversals traded in April and June with dealers buying call and selling put. Subsequently, June 1600 Cs were purchased live. Funds bought while dealers and market makers sold. Volatility proceeded to rally from there in step with the market’s movement. Puts were almost not quoted at all, except to be sold in fence form. On the day skew was up, call tails were raised and volatility was higher.
Commentary:
It’s about time that this market started acting like a commodity and not a proxy for some ETF product traded by mutual fund managers. Call skew rallied to levels not seen in a long time as first dealers rolled their longs higher to let them hedge their gamma and then funds added to existing positions. It seems that the constant flow of GLD call selling that used to spill over onto comex has subsided. Perhaps we are entering a parabolic phase now that we are at all-time highs. We alerted readers to get long 2 days ago and remain behind our call of a top side of 1475-1550 in the next 8 weeks.
Summary
April Gold settled at $1431.20 per
troy ounce, a gain of $21.30 for the day. Volatility rallied on the
back of call buying and puts were offered.
Active Options
J 1350P /1505 C Fence
J 1450 C
M 1500 C
M 1600 C
ATM Volatility Curve:
Volatility Smile:
»
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Is "sell the peak" like buy the dip?
STFP is the new BTFD?
yep, keep it coming. the price might reduce someday, but, not soon.
http://covert2.wordpress.com
"It’s about time that this market started acting like a commodity and not a proxy for some ETF product"
How dare you!
So judge judy have you ever dated a troll?
Gold is not a commodity. Gold is money.
.
OT but I wanted to get this in near the top...
Ever heard of investigative journalist Daniel Hopsicker?
Check out this story on high ranking Americans and gold smuggling in The Congo/Kenya...
http://www.madcowprod.com/03022011.htm
I don't know anything more, I am afterall - NostraDumbass!
that is one hell of a story. and i read less than half.
Where's the "A-Team" to take out these bad guys, when ya need em??
Been waiting for Gold to trek higher with all the trouble in the Mid East and the humming of printing presses at the Fed...
As someone that just rides the coat tails of the true genius that contributes here, is the rise of PM's more to do with Bernank's printing or the oil crisis?
The printing press. It is uncomfortable for some to accept this reality. They look for any other possible answer.
Buy gold now before it gets away!
Penis envy or just the (gold)standard kind?
Generally, a rise in PMs associated with a news item like buildings falling down and riots in the streets of some land that few can place are fleeting events. PMs do best when there is a negative real interest rate as has been the case for a rather long time now.
Quinvarius has it correct.
Oil is settled in dollars...duh...whadyathink happens when more dollars, thanks to printing, are chasing the same, or less, oil?
This is not a trick question.
And the oil market is the only one big enough to hide gold. From our man FOFOA!
...
Gold is the best wealth preserver in town. I will certainly concede that silver has been a better speculation over the past couple of years and most especially very recently. That's OK, I have both, but I may join the club of people talking here (and elsewhere) about trading their silver for gold.
Blythe Masters just called for you DoChen, she wants you to meet her for 'dinner and a movie', tonight.
No thanks! I'd wind up feeding the fishes there in the East River.
Besides, Blythe is nasty! Ask JonNadler!
Decades of gaming and price fixing seem to finally be giving way to external forces. (or is that still wishful thinking on my part).
Hard to continue playing games, what with all the search lights from the intrawebz on da gangstas!
Both. The petrodollar has been a pillar of the world economy for 70 years, and it is coming to a close. The safest place to be during the transition is in gold.
Why pretend these are two different things?
One controls the other. Let's pretend no further.
Cash is trash - The FRN's are sinking into the abyss.
Margin squeeze was confirmed by Benjie today so the decoupling of gold from stocks should now occur in earnest...but don't count on it "until some financial executive goes to jail."
Benjie? Link please.
tou can't eat government bonds either but at least you can wipe you ass with them.
i use the queen's face to scrub my nuts when i take a bath in my maple leafs.
and they're still uncirculated
Hey, I'd still take those maples for settlement of a contract; at spot.
(Disclaimer: Only if it is legal where we are both all to, all the i's were crossed and t's were dotted, the appropriate taxes were paid by all parties concerned, to whom it may concern, blah blah blah jargon-lingo-verbiage-guff.)
But what about the maples?
They're good for compost, or shred them for mulch.
DXY is lurking around the breakdown point of 77...if the dollar slides tonight in Asia then we may wake up w/ an all new and much higher view of PM's, oil, etc. Will Asian's and then Euro's run to or run from the dollar tonight???
If they run from, this would be the inflection moment when shit gets way too real for Merica.
Agree that it is worth watching. No predictions on US fiat on my part (too volatile) but could provide some clues as to what may happen in the market before the weekend (yes qualifying - I just don't know)
Was that a long way of saying you have nothing to add?
DXY still sitting in an awkward spot at 77 (kinda lurking like a stalker, creepy)...seems the likely reaction would be for the dollar to bounce off the trend line and head to strength (flight to safety or at least raising dollars)...the fact it is not bouncing seems to be implying the dollar may truly be unloved!!!
If this trend line breaks, seems like the shiite could hit the fan for Americans in rapid inflationary waves??? Would imply the safety play is dead and PM's, Oil are the new store of wealth?
Well, DXY is a nice thumbnail, but it's so heavily weighted to the euro (very roughly half, for anyone not familiar with its makeup). But yeah, interesting times, to say the least.
In any timeframe other than days, maybe weeks, the dollar index is an utterly irrelevant and meaningless "measure" of anything, least of all the absolute (and ever-falling) value of the US dollar. That is why it is so beloved by all mainstream, pro-Establishment mouthpieces and disinformation agents --- they can point to it and its constant fluctuations in the futile attempt to deflect attention away from the ongoing depreciation of the dollar, and all fiat currencies in general.
If I am in a sinking ship, and you are next to me in a similar sinking ship, and your sinking ship starts taking on water more rapidly than mine, that does NOT mean that mine is therefore rising out of the water. Both ships will inevitably sink lower in the water, regardless of which ship does so more quickly at any given time. So it is with fiat currencies.
I may have to pirate that analogy, with proper credit to a guy from ZH... but then again given your avatar, maybe pirating isn't half bad ;)
Aye, matey, it be yours for free, arrrrhh!
Or the currencies can be likened to turds in the toilet. A gassy crap will take longer to sink than one with lower fart production.
Perfect description Akak.
Though it is worth noting that so far the index is still effective at manipulating a wide range of investor sentiment for the short term, though that signal is definitely undergoing some notable dampening; and the returns of manipulating it are diminishing at an accelerating pace. Indeud, for the most part the whole chart of the dollar index looks like a plot of a fractal function composed of H&S tops to me. In fact, IMHO, right now it looks like we are at the RS of a triple headed monster, unless it can hold 77 or bust through 78 within the next two weeks.
Like you've pointed out, though, it's all just hocus-pocus anyway. The trend for all fiats is down, 'cause that's one of the best ways to extract any wealth the savers and the poor might have accumulated, but were duped into investing it in fiat denominated assets. Heck, they were not given any real choice in a lot of instances.
Regards
Thanks GF. I have used the analogy for a while now, and cannot remember if it originated with myself or if I read it elsewhere. I do like to point out, however, that the US dollar, currently at around 79 on the DXY index, was for example also at 79 in August of 1992, when the dollar was worth at least twice what it is today. And one can find even earlier examples of the index being at that same value, or a wide range of values, when the dollar's purchasing power was MUCH higher than it is today.
The US dollar index has about as much relationship with the fundamental value of the dollar as the number of Martian dust devils at any given moment relates to attendance levels at Disneyworld.
Based on some rough calculations:
DollarIndex ~= (1000/Pg) + 0.08, where Pg == Current price of gold in dollars
Using this approximation, the Dollar index would be 0.28 if Gold rises to $5000/Toz
important to remember that DXY doesn't measure the true dollar, only dollar relative to other currencies. DXY may very well go up while inflation ravages nonetheless
I actually said "I don't know"! That is very different from I have nothing to add. Go home to your dc suburb.
I knew you would show up - lol!
The Financial Times reported today that various banks in Italy want the Central Bank of Italy to mark up their Gold reserves.
But why?
These Italian banks are shareholders in the Central Bank and they will face "stress tests" over the summer for which they are under capitalized. The following is an excerpt, "Italian banks think they may have struck gold as they seek to add lustre to balance sheets ahead of summer stress tests.
The lenders, which are shareholders in the central bank, are lobbying for their stakes to be marked to market. that way the Bank of Italy's gold reserves, and the surging price of the precious metal, would at a stroke transform their core capital ratios"
It does make sense doesn't it? Of course it does. Not only should central banks mark their Gold to market, they need to actually MARK UP the price of Gold to erase the giant black holes that exist in the global fiat banking system!
THIS is the only way. This is only the start as "light bulbs" will be turning on all over the world as "bankers" figure the only way out from under the accumulated massive debts is to mark the price of Gold into the stratosphere and re liquefy the system.
This thought process will begin to grow big time as Gold continues it's upward trajectory.
Having said this, there is one fly in the ointment and his name is Ron Paul! The above thought process is correct, IF and only IF the central bank has Gold in it's vault. Ron Paul will undoubtedly call for a Ft. Knox and Fed audit as this year progresses and we may be very disappointed in what an audit actually turns up, ie. "bare, naked cupboards".
For those central banks that actually do have physical Gold in storage, a mark up process can "reset" the system. For those that do not....there will be VERY tough times ahead!
One can only hope that the U.S. has the Gold they say they do but as the saying goes..."hope is the refuge of fools".
www.lemetropolecafe.com
Italian Banks Pushing For Mark-To-Market To Benefit From Surging Price Of... Gold
In other words: never going to happen.
U'Alls get a 5 hour head start...aint fair.
One Blog to Another Blog!
Posting and Cross-Posting!
Reading only to Re-Read!
Writing then Editing!
I was still sleeping, sound and peacefully, in my Canadian Rockies hideout when you posted that on ZH this morning.
Damn... It's hard to keep up with you East dwelling dudes out here in the PST time zone.
Found an amazing silver video on youtube. I don't know how to link it but it is like the cartoon bears info. Must help everyone here see it. It is only 4 to5 minutes of silver charts and stats comparing the action during the US market to the rest of the world. Please help!
The Silver Log (03.01.2011) - Silver in Two different markets
Thank you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR28o5f9aKE
student:
->very top of the page...right click on http://www...........com/etc.etc.etc.
-> Copy... left click
-> return to ZH page...insert where you want it... press Ctrl & V at same time.
ur welcome
:<{)
Banks cannot leave balance sheet ratios unadjusted without certain bankruptcy. Therefore they have only two paths: Inflate or Die by free capital injections (hasn't worked so far), or revalue reserve assets thereby increasing their capital base. If gold is all that they've got as a reserve asset for revaluation, then preparing for either strategy by holding PMs is a no brainer.
The European Central Bank revalues it's gold quarterly to current market price.
I don't know if the Italian Banks already do like wise.
My cousin Vinnie says "that if dees banks would stop hiring so many yoots, ya yoots, dat the world would den go on the gold standerd. Deess yoots have never herd of a gold standerd so how could dey know"
I'm not sure I agree that these yoots are too young to remember the gold standerd but I like the guys logic nevertheless. Beats the hell out of some wall street dude thinking beta
You sound like Dutch is your mother tongue! Keep an eye on your Queen Beatrix.......she's the evil one and watch out for the numerous tricks up her sleeves. She's one of the main player in the NWO.
"THIS is the only way. This is only the start as "light bulbs" will be turning on all over the world as "bankers" figure the only way out from under the accumulated massive debts is to mark the price of Gold into the stratosphere and re liquefy the system."
IOW, If they can't beat us, join us!
Stranger things have happened.
Never say Never.
"Not only should central banks mark their Gold to market, they need to actually MARK UP the price of Gold to erase the giant black holes that exist in the global fiat banking system!"
And yes they'll mark-to-market their few appreciating assets like gold, while not marking-to-market mountains of depreciating assets they have.
In case anyone asks.
I posted up the GLD calls action in the first 15 minutes of trading today....KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
I think GLD is like Fort Knox...they might not have the gold either...so I see the price of the ETF different from the real gold...we will see soon..as more and more people want the real stuff...in their posession..not some bank promise...
I would go one step further and say that GLD is IN Fort Knox. I.e. shares of paper GLD stacked in neat rows were the bars should be. And coppies of the prospectus handed out before entering.
The Fofoa theory is that eventually, paper gold is discovered to be worthless and the price crashes, but it won't matter because at whatever low price it crashes to, you won't be able to get physical at any price. Once things stabilize, the true price will be discovered in physical only markets. That's how I've understood it anyway, I could be way off.
priceless gold is worthless. Gold must flow somewhere and trade for something.
If there is a stampede for less available physical, GLD will actually start trading at a premium to NAV. GLD actually is a mechanism for runaway appreciation in the way that it is structured. On the flipside, if GLD actually has a significant amount of physical, which there is significant evidence that they do, if the major banks can short it to a discount to NAV, they can force it to disgorge its holdings into the marketplace by the same mechanisms.
gold lease rates virtually unchanged ,.....compare to 3 months ago , when they fluctuated wildly with price movements in spot ,.... the word has obviously been sent out "stop blatantly manipulating the price via lease rates "....... amazing that a bit of light will scatter the rats and cockroaches back into their holes , more power to GATA
I'll bet Blythe would like to lease a few thousand comex silver bars about now.
Bold call. What the fuck..I'm in. It is not like my calls the last three months have been any good.
I'm about to go short the market again. Maybe if I short a second time after I capitulate my first shorts it will work.
Good luck, top!
Hopefully A.P.s will pillage GLD of whatever gold it actually has (sorry retailers you were incessantly warned), Funds will stop shorting miners as a hedge to physical, COMEX will get cleaned out, and then we can see what gold is REALLY worth
You're crazy not to own a ton right here!
+1 Tard.
You're too crazy right here, a ton.
If anyone thinks the dollar dies here and never makes one or two comebacks then you underestimate the lengths to which this government will go to ensure that at the end of the day the dollar will ride high again, at least for a short time. The only way it doesn't stage some kind of comeback is if the US doens't want it to. Changing of the guards never happen over night nor without a fight. When the fed feels cornered you can bet that they will do whatever they can and want to, legal or otherwise to get the outcome they desire and that may be at the expense of all of us that dare to own more gold than cash. I'm just saying, caution is still warranted.
Once the Con-man takes off and the Marks realize they've been had, think any of the Marks are gonna trust the Con-man again??
again and again, over and over
can't live without the bad guys.
Technically, a full gold standard isn't an option. Under the IMF's first amendment to Article IV of Agreement, ratified in 1978, participating countries are not allowed to peg their currency to gold.But that doesn't mean that China won't try to legitimize its currency by ramping up its gold holdings. The U.S., which sports the current world reserve currency, holds more than 8,000 tons of gold, more than 8 times the size of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF. Not only has China been furiously buying gold, but local gold producers have been looking outside the country to find more of the metal. State-controlled China National Gold Corp bought half of Coeur d'Alene Mines' (CDE) gold concentrates from its Kensington gold mine in Alaska. China has also been telling its citizens to buy gold, promoting different gold funds, giving investors access to overseas products and launching a global gold contract based in yuan by Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange. The ICBC and World Gold Council recently teamed up for the creation of the Only Gold Gift Bar in China, where a customer can buy gold as a gift, complete with engraving, and can sell it back to the ICBC for cash!
Zoran Slaveski
Zetaboards Australian Property Forum
http://s4.zetaboards.com/Australian_Property
Gold standard's a certainity. Load up now before the G-men slap a price cap and confiscate from the fools.
William the Bastard bastardizes another honest bastard.
He don't need no educashun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Py5aPLG348&feature=fvst
I was told today that the Chinese have been seen buying up gold coins at coin shows and if there is not enough gold, they are buying silver.
"Technically, a full gold standard isn't an option. Under the IMF's first amendment to Article IV of Agreement"
And who the hell is the IMF?
I didn't vote for them, did you? .... did anyone here?
Once again, who/what is the IMF.
How are they funded, how do their officers get in position, how is their agenda reached.
This is the organization that is supposed to step in after the Fed goes belly up and save the world with its fiat SDRs?
I strongly suspect the IMF is backed and controlled by the same principals that control the U.S. Fed.
-------------
Hey, any of you familiar with Jim Richards?
In a nutshell, very savvy guy, you'd do well to learn about him.
There is a recent KingWorldNews interview with him as he reported how the IMF came to the Davos conference armed with a FULL blueprint on how to implement SDRs. And the key, the linchpin to this all? SDR's won't take hold untill there are bonds denominated in SDRs. Let's see... who do we know on the financial scene that underwrites bonds on a sovereign level. It wouldn't be the likes of Goldman sucks or JPM ...would it?
Gold Standard you say? ... just realize that when the existing currencies implode the status quo will put their full weight on latching on to a fiat SDR standard. They are already positioned, the U.S. Military and homeland gestapo is in place to quell discent. The bankers have their proxies in positions of government power. The own the regulators.
Doesn't quite seem like a fair fight.
By the way Zoran .... you need to present evidence that you are not a U.S. Air Force virtual poster.
Guess that means you do NOT welcome our robot overlords then? :>D
The IMF is one huge giant NWO dick. The sole purpose is to use it to screw everybody and get paid for it. Ask the 3rd world how it feels like.....most of them are still unable to stand on their own feet 20/30 years after being screwed!
China: Rules?! We don't need no stinking rules!
Rest of world: Oh, fuck.
I agree that the dollar can rally some, but gold can still move higher with it as it is deemed more of a currency going forward. This has happened recently and will again.
So who here would rather have 1ozt au .999 vs 42.35ozt ag .999?
Not to quibble, but its 999.9
~Misstrial
Not to quibble, but NOTHING is marked like that. Being that gold or silver is refined to "almost pure" we cannot get to 1; so we have .999 instead.
Go buy an ounce or two and let me know how yours is marked.
Uh? Damn, anyway it be stamped .999 which be 99.9% pure. There be some gold rounds/(ingots)? refined .9999 = 99.99% pure.
The U.S. has many reasons to try to keep the price of PM's & oil suppressed, mainly for PR of the USD. It's pretty easy to suppress the price of gold when you have way more than any other entity in the world. The problem the U.S. government is having is with the suppression of silver. The physical shortages are blowing up their game because they don't have any. They can't have the price of silver go through the roof and gold not follow. That would be way too obvious. I suspect they finally let the price of gold go up a little bit to keep pace with silver. It will be very interesting how they go about trying to continue suppressing the PM's.
Agreed the gsr is intolerable; besides there is a shit load of gold vs the precious. Not bashing gold but; damn!
Now is a particularly sweet spot. Around the world tonight money is creeping toward the exit and into gold. All that Middle East oil money getting scared sick over revolutions, frozen assets, middle of the night escapes.....
Add to that oil anxiety, war anxiety, dollar anxiety and you have the makings of a gold meltup rising like a golden souffle!
+ $1430
"... money is creeping toward the exit and into gold."
Nicely written Caviar!
+++
Like your insights - thanks!
Mining Companies will do very well in the coming days...
Some are already in takeoff mode (such as Great Panther)
-
http://thehardrightedge.com/miningequities/
-
Do diligent research!
Fuck paper.
Indeed
Fuck women!
Indeed FTW! :>D
who the fuck is old enough to know what a gold market looks like anyhow?
hasnt it been manipulated since well since when money was on a gold standard
why be skeptical, eggo?
if we could tell the future, we wouldn't be sitting here pretending not to be monkeys @ typewriterz.
and yet again we learn "why we have oil." there is no ETF nor can there be. ever. And "voilia"--we have "price action." What's the prob? Unless of course you still believe that "there's no free market in the USA." Too simple a response? Or too simple a reality? And you are more than welcome to ask the House of Saud "how that free market thing is workin' for him now."
I think I saw Harry Wanker on a milk carton, anyone seen him lately?
that is + funny
Guess (S)He got all the data (S)He needed from poking all the bearz and is even now, busily crunching numbers! :>D
It's easier for me to anticipate moves in the dollar-denominated Au by calculating smaller upward targets based on lower levels of the $index, for example, at the Nov. 2010 nearby low of 76, and then at the 2008 index low of 72, with today's 18.6 ratio, pointing to $1449 and then $1525 for Au. No chart-voodoo here, except for visible $index support levels.
The ratio over several months has been between 17 and 18, as low as 16.8, and as high as today's 18.57, trending higher. As the quality of Ben-Hubris' assurances edge closer to those of GoDhaffi's, I expect a day soon, within months, when a 1 point $index move down coincides with a $25 upmove in Au, gone parabolic, as it discounts the decreasing value of QEx and the U$D, perhaps to be recognized later as the world's reverse currency.
yes, but there has also been news of "decoupling" from this "inverse $-to-gold price-in-$'s" relationship.
the dollar is "priced", in terms of determining the "$index", in terms of other fiat currencies, i think. just look it up and see what the "mix and ratio" is. for now. for today. fast track, maynard.
who knows what the morrow may bring.
today i find myself wondering what would be the "dollar vector" if the US goobermint defaulted on it's debt-paper. prob. be bullish for the dollar, right? and who knows what would happen to the "gold price"???
Long beef, pork and chickens. HA
Gold is overrated.
Flippant and vacuous trolling is even more overrated.
GOLD BITCHEZ!
Sorry, I had to say it once.
Not when you have a 1/2 beef, whole piggy and 10 chickens in the freezer.
In two or three years those chickens in your freezer'll taste mighty gold-like, no?
Up, up, and away in my beautiful balloon ... and that range (1475-1550) proves Tyler knows his math :)
Damn that Gold's tastey stuff.
Think I'll get me another bag full.
if blythe wants my silver bars
she can come north and play
full contact shoots and ladders
for them ..
winner take all...
There is no realistic scenario where the U.S. pays back all that is owed and simulataneously meets its obligations, primarily income redistribution. There is not even a current scenario where we stop borrowing astronomical amounts of money for the next decade. Even Republicans are putting up only laughable cuts. More importantly, they are NOT asking government to stop doing anything. All programs remain in place.
Ergo, fiat currency will fall through the actions of Ben Bernanke with some assistance from the Congress. It is the only way out.
Gold-PM's are the only financial hedge against that future. Wish I had the money to go long with large bets.
"Gold purchases in China, the world’s largest producer, climbed to 200 metric tons in the first two months of 2011 as faster inflation boosted consumer demand, according to UBS AG, which said the price may gain to $1,500." emphasis mine
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/gold-buying-in-china-totals-200...
Ok the first chart looks like crooked lines, the second one like a birth canal. I don't really care what all that super fulous shit means. This is what I try to do. Buy low and sell high. Capiche, bitchezz?