Following A Plethora Of Technical Breakdowns (And Outs), Here Are The Charts That Matter Next Week With Podcast

Tyler Durden's picture

As usual, attached is the complete set of "charts that matter" next week from Goldman's John Noyce, which will hopefully be a useful source of technical clues for anyone trading the all too critical EURUSD which has become the defacto driver of global risk courtesy of 100% correlated ES algos. Being the primary variable doesn't make it any easier to predict: as Noyce observes, "EURUSD trades to new lows then squeezes back into the range - as ever this leaves quite a confused ST picture which makes it difficult to make a strong daily chart based call. The daily chart setup has again become confused at best, but the underlying structure still looks heavy and as such a sell on rallies bias still seems the one to stick with." While in the past we have agreed with Noyce outright (we is by far the best technician at Goldman) this time we are concerned that the EUR is the only one looking at big weakness. The reason why a straddle may be the best trade ahead of next week is that by next Friday many question marks should disappear: on July 21 the Euro parliament will convene for an emergency meeting at which some speculate Greece's fate may be decided, leading to a "soft" or "transitory" default which will send the EUR plunging at least briefly. On the other side of the Atlantic, we have Congress which is supposed to reach a decision (or not) by Friday the 22nd in order to meet the August 2 deadline. If no solution is reached in the next week, it will be the dollar's turn to plunge. So yes, next week will be critical. In addition to the above, Noyce touches on the technical breakout patterns in the BTP and the SPG chart, associated euro FX correlations, and the recent breakdown in JPY. Probably the biggest question is whether the right shoulder of the S&P H&S formation means a major drop back to the 1,260 level is imminent.

The Head and Shoulders formation in the S&P is glaring:

Full podcast:

Charts That Matter Audio by user5452365

And complete presentation:

Charts That Matter 7.15

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Buckaroo Banzai's picture

So confusing. Can I just buy gold instead?

Long-John-Silver's picture

Diversification is having Beans, Bullets, and Bullion.

Dr. Engali's picture

Band forgot your band aids

Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah can't forget the booze. Great for bartering too.

chump666's picture

rum they used to trade it like a currency...many moons back

HungrySeagull's picture

Smokes and a small trade such as making ammunition.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

drinking Orange Bacardi Rum + Orange Soda now. Reading The Creature from Jekyll Island by G Edward Griffin. It is my second read through.

augie's picture

You ever read anything other than economic/political theory? 

baby_BLYTHE's picture

I have read as much literature by the Founding Fathers as I have been able to find. Before I signed up for my Macro Economics class last semester I had already read & LRC for about a year and started reading ZH late 2009 after my older brother awoke me to everything that is going on and how my generation is completely doomed.

I believe in sound money 100%. To me that means one should be able to make a 'safe' investment that guarenttees about a 5% return a year (Yes Gold could easily do this).

Regardless, what the chaircreature and others in mainstream academia don't understand is capital comes from savings not from 'printing' and budget deficits.

All the QE, Mark-To-Myth and regulatory capture cannot cure the rampant malinvestment this economy has undergone the past few decades post-WWII|

we have yet to experience the real pain, IMHO. The next crisis will be much worse than we had in 2008.

Careless Whisper's picture


CAN anyone please help me out? I'm trying to understand whats going on with this chart. This stock seems to be testing its support level around 130 but I'm concerned because what happens if it breaks that support level?  Where is the next level of support?  I really would appreciate some help here. Thanks.


augie's picture

Don't make me break out the Ned land Vids. 

sellstop's picture

Yes, it is testing support. Very heavily testing support. It may go up from here or it may go down through that support. But the fact that it is in a downtrend and "testing support" should lead you to the conclusion that it is not a high probability trade to buy at this time.

Maybe if it breaks support, goes down, and then come back strongly it may be a good buy. Or if support holds, it goes back to the recent highs, tests them, and goes higher, then it may be a good buy.

But to buy GS here because it is "testing support" is to just be buying a lottery ticket. You are "hoping" to be right so you can pat yourself on the back for buying at the low of the move. That is a poor way to make money. And stressfull too.


augie's picture

It's inspiring how much you know for how long you've been paying attention and i'm usually the one bitching about our apathetic generation, but god damn lady it's friday night in the summer. Gotta enjoy this nightmare while it lasts no? 

baby_BLYTHE's picture

haha, my BF and I are headed out now to a few clubs downtown.

I pay as much attention to the financial markets as I can. My generation will determine the fate of this country. Scary thought indeed.

Anyways, great work as always this week Tyler(s). Your service is invaluable.

gall batter's picture

nobody puts baby in a corner.  except the truth: your generation's fate was determined long ago. 

IQ 145's picture

 I wish I could un-junk your post. It's very clear and shows an excellent grasp of the situation.

dogbreath's picture

what do you mean your generation is doomed.  Your life is just beginning as a result of your eyes recently opening.  eyes wide shut would describe x'ers and boomers as well.

Peak Everything's picture

Suggest you keep reading because you appear to have more to learn.

I too started with studying sound money. It's important but there are other more important things. Like infinite growth being impossible on a finite planet.

Think about the implications of your desire for a safe 5% return per year. Get a spreadsheet and see how few years it takes to double the economy at 5% compounded per year. Then look at the reserves of almost any natural resource and ask how long before 5% growth puts us at serious risk of collapse.


StychoKiller's picture

So, the only logical conclusion:  The surface of a planet is NOT the correct place for an expanding technological civilization.

Peak Everything's picture

Sure it is. Provided we limit ourselves to 2 or less children after we've reduced about 5 billion.

GiantWang's picture

Albert Einstein said nothing boggled his mind more than the power of compound interest.  There is no such thing as a sustainable system that grows at a geometric rate.  Nature just doesn't function that way.  Why should we?  Why should wealth grow at a geometric rate? And what the hell are you going to do with all that wealth?  I can tell you . . . eventually you are going to leave it behind and die.  What does all that mean?  Nothing.  What will you think it means to be wealthy? Whatever you assign the "meaning" as, e.g. power, that you're better, smarter, more deserving, somehow intrinsically worthy?  Or just that you enjoy a better quality of life?  Life can be quality without growing wealth at 5% per year.  Focus on achieving such a quality life, and wealth is gravy--doesn't really matter.

Jendrzejczyk's picture

Orange Bacardi Rum + Orange Soda = Creature from Puke Island

Enjoy the night. Tomorrow morning will probably suck.

Herknoid Weaver's picture

Your on your second read through and you havent figured out the guy is a fraud and a hack? With respect you have wasted your time on G. Edward Griffin. I went down that road reading the Jeckyll Island book and I still own a copy. I definately agree that some of the information is thought provoking like his explanation of the "Mandrake Mechanism".  These guys always give you some thought provoking facts but lead you down the wrong path with lies. I keep it as memorabilia and a reminder that free speech still exists to some degree when trash like that is still published. I want to expose him and all the other clowns like him for who they really are.  This guy has been at it since Lassie was a pup. His version of history is just as skewed as that which we learned in school. Please tell me you havent watched his video he sponsered on Chemtrails or read his old books about how Cancer can be cured by eating seeds containing cyanide.  I would like to whip his damn ass.  Here are some links you can look at and make your own decision on the son of a bitch.


Killer the Buzzard's picture

The Bernank says rum is an asset, not a currency.

StychoKiller's picture

Always an asset in my book, provided you're holding onto Physical | |\(o)(o)/| |   :>D

Long-John-Silver's picture

Make sure you take physical possession of it.

A Nanny Moose's picture

After I am done with it, they can have all of my booze they want. My aim ain't so great tho. Might get a little on them.

SwingForce's picture

Anybody besides Reggie make money on Google calls today? Fuck the EURo. Oh yeah, Apple new record high. Dollar drops from here? While the Central Banksterz are intent on destroying free markets, Steve, Sergey & Larry don't want to play your stupid game.

rsnoble's picture

On other fronts im going to pick up a 20 pack, drink copius cold ones for the rest of the evening while riding my 4 wheeler thru the country hills, occasionally stop to shoot at some random target, and grill a couple large porterhouses sometime later this evening. 

rsnoble's picture

btw I recently bought a couple of Henry 22 rifles.  They are nice and very accurate right out of the box.  Oh......and 10,000 rounds.

Dr. Engali's picture

You're gonna need a bigger gun. And more of them.

Long-John-Silver's picture

.22's kill more people than any other caliber of gun.

brandy night rocks's picture

Maybe the Dr is assuming he'll be attacked by giants?

Dr. Engali's picture

I'll pit my 270 Ruger rifle or my 7.62 Bushmaster up against your 22 any day.

Long-John-Silver's picture

You might think twice about that. I have a Calico 10/22 pre-ban, pre-warning, with 2 100 round mags. I also have the optional motor drive that I keep separate so I don't go to jail.

Dr. Engali's picture

That's a nice set up but it won't do you any good if I'm picking you off from 300 yards while you're spraying bullets. I'm not saying that 22s shouldn't be part of your arsenal, but when shit hits the fan I want more fire power.

Long-John-Silver's picture

1,200 rounds a minute with the drive installed and it's accurate. You take one .22 anywhere and you bleed to death really slow and painfully. Google it.

I do have larger calibre weapons including 7.62 X 54r and 7.62 X 25T

High Plains Drifter's picture

won't it get very hot and then jam?

Long-John-Silver's picture

If it was a larger calibre it would but .22's will just get it warm enough to feel even if you dump all 200 rounds in a single go. Then by the time you put 200 rounds in 2 mags it's had time to cool off. It has barrel cooling tubes installed as well.