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FOMC Minutes: "Appropriate To Provide Additional Monetary Policy Accommodation"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here is the key section with highlights on the November 3 QE2 announement:

Participants discussed the medium-term outlook for monetary policy and
issues related to monetary policy implementation. Many participants
noted that if economic growth remained too slow to make satisfactory
progress toward reducing the unemployment rate or if inflation continued
to come in below levels consistent with the FOMC's dual mandate, it
would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy
accommodation.
However, others thought that additional accommodation
would be warranted only if the outlook worsened and the odds of
deflation increased materially.
Meeting participants discussed several
possible approaches to providing additional accommodation but focused
primarily on further purchases of longer-term Treasury securities and on
possible steps to affect inflation expectations.
Participants reviewed
the likely benefits and costs associated with a program of purchasing
additional longer-term assets--with some noting that the economic
benefits could be small in current circumstances--as well as the best
means to calibrate and implement such purchases. A number of
participants commented on the important role of inflation expectations
for monetary policy: With short-term nominal interest rates constrained
by the zero bound, a decline in short-term inflation expectations
increases short-term real interest rates (that is, the difference
between nominal interest rates and expected inflation), thereby damping
aggregate demand.
Conversely, in such circumstances, an increase in
inflation expectations lowers short-term real interest rates,
stimulating the economy. Participants noted a number of possible
strategies for affecting short-term inflation expectations, including
providing more detailed information about the rates of inflation the
Committee considered consistent with its dual mandate, targeting a path
for the price level rather than the rate of inflation, and targeting a
path for the level of nominal GDP. As a general matter, participants
felt that any needed policy accommodation would be most effective if
enacted within a framework that was clearly communicated to the public.
The minutes of FOMC meetings were seen as an important channel for
communicating participants' views about monetary policy.

On inflation:

With respect to the statement to be released following the meeting,
members agreed that it was appropriate to adjust the statement to make
it clear that underlying inflation had been running below levels that
the Committee judged to be consistent with its mandate for maximum
employment and price stability, in part to help anchor inflation
expectations. Nearly all members agreed that the statement should
reiterate the expectation that economic conditions were likely to
warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an
extended period
. One member, however, believed that continuing to
communicate that expectation in the Committee's statement would create
conditions that could lead to macroeconomic and financial imbalances
.
Members generally thought that the statement should note that the
Committee was prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to
support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to
levels consistent with its mandate. Such an indication accorded with the
members' sense that such accommodation may be appropriate before long,
but also made clear that any decisions would depend upon future
information about the economic situation and outlook.

On the previously leaked GDP number:

In the economic forecast prepared for the September FOMC meeting, the
staff lowered its projection for the increase in real economic activity
over the second half of 2010. The staff also reduced slightly its
forecast of growth next year but continued to anticipate a moderate
strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in
economic growth in 2012.
The softer tone of incoming economic data
suggested that the underlying level of demand was weaker than projected
at the time of the August meeting. Moreover, the outlook for foreign
economic activity also appeared a bit weaker. In the medium term, the
recovery in economic activity was expected to receive support from
accommodative monetary policy, further improvements in financial
conditions, and greater household and business confidence. Over the
forecast period, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient
to slowly reduce economic slack, although resource slack was
anticipated to still remain elevated at the end of 2012.

The lone crusader against insanity continues to be Hoenig:

Voting for this action: Ben Bernanke, William C. Dudley, James Bullard, Elizabeth Duke, Sandra Pianalto, Eric Rosengren, Daniel K. Tarullo, and Kevin Warsh.

Voting against this action: Thomas M. Hoenig.

Mr. Hoenig dissented, emphasizing that the economy was entering the second year of moderate recovery and that, while the zero interest rate policy and "extended period" language were appropriate during the crisis and its immediate aftermath, they were no longer appropriate with the recovery under way. Mr. Hoenig also emphasized that, in his view, the current high levels of unemployment were not caused by high interest rates but by an extended period of exceptionally low rates earlier in the decade that contributed to the housing bubble and subsequent collapse and recession. He believed that holding rates artificially low would invite the development of new imbalances and undermine long-run growth. He would prefer removing the "extended period" language and thereafter moving the federal funds rate upward, consistent with his views at past meetings that it approach 1 percent, before pausing to determine what further policy actions were needed. Also, given current economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that continuing to reinvest principal payments from SOMA securities holdings was required to support the Committee's policy objectives.

All in all, just as expected

 

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Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:07 | 643661 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Get your free money, free money for all $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:15 | 643687 mikla
mikla's picture

LMAO, eight un-elected, non-government, non-accountable officials vote to spend $1.5T in taxpayer money, and everybody thinks this is "normal".

You humans are really weird.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:18 | 643700 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

+1 lol   "How to cook humans!!" 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:07 | 643924 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

"To serve man" - Is a cookbook!!!!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:24 | 643740 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

+1 bottle of moonshine

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:49 | 643860 chet
chet's picture

"Don't blame me.  I voted for Kodos!"

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 16:03 | 644163 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

tonight is the night the dollar dies.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:08 | 643662 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

And off to the races we go. As I said, everyone acts "surprised" when Fed says they discussed QE2. Now markets react as if they never thought it was possible. LOL!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:10 | 643672 Tall Tree Man
Tall Tree Man's picture

Wanker:  Your insights on the "marketing" of QE have been spot on this past few weeks.  Question for you: will the actual QE announcement be a sell-the-news day?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:13 | 643679 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

If Fed says anything from 500B - 750B, market will be muted to slight pull back on "sell the news". Anything more, which btw many are really "expecting" will shoot the market much higher. 

This is just like earnings - everyone really knows the Fed will go big on this but they act like it'll "only" be 500B. When you get a much larger figure, market will love it.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:19 | 643706 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There wont be any Q/E2, all talk and hype.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:23 | 643733 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Come on, SheepDog, you don't really believe that. Question is how big and how long will it last? All at once? Billion per month until they deem it working? 

Oh, it's gonna happen, just a matter of size.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:47 | 643852 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wont happen, because it doesnt exist. 'Size' of what, Colonel Kurtz Bernankes dementia?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:55 | 643884 Millennial
Millennial's picture

How does it not "exist"? I don't think you understand inflation (QE). Inflation isn't rise in prices, it's the expansion of money supply. The things holding it back for now are de-leveraging and banks are afraid to lend right now so they have lent it to the govt (who guarantees them profits). Look at how much cash the govt has recently received, and look who is also now the largest employer. Look at the surge in kids and students entering the military. The money is just sitting there in vaults. 

Once spending kicks back in then there will dramatic rise in prices. I already see it at the gas station. Where I live gas will likely be $3 by end of next week; it's already 2.89 for regular with cash.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:03 | 643911 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How does imaginary money not exist? Is that even a question?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:22 | 643976 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Just because it's credit doesn't mean it doesn't exist. 

Technically speaking Zero Hedge doesn't exist because it's all imaginary numbers organized in a fashion on a screen.

I mean if you 'love" some one or believe in "God" can you prove that those "objects" exist?

BTW if banks were actually honest then your bank accounts would report only 90% of your deposits, but yet you can withdraw all of it into "real" money. So where is your argument now?

But I guess I'm full of shit. 

 

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:26 | 643747 Millennial
Millennial's picture

There'll be QE2. By December the Fed will feel forced into it. 

Two weeks and I'm outta here protected from the financial apocalypse by the Army. Wee!!!!!

 

I should not have had Rally's burgers last night with a Joose. Stuff is coming out yellow. 

Which reminds me of Yellow Submarine. Which further reminds me: I'm glad Lennon is dead fucking commie hippie.

 

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:33 | 643784 minus dog
minus dog's picture

"Two weeks and I'm outta here protected from the financial apocalypse by the Army. Wee!!!!!"

If you're saying that as someone who has never been in... then you have no clue what you're getting into.  That's about the last place I'd want to be right now.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:42 | 643832 espirit
espirit's picture

Hey, good food, a paying job, training, and sleeping under a bridge only on maneuvers.

Beats flipping burgers, waiting tables, or getting a grad degree for which there is no job to pay back the student loan.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:46 | 643851 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Obviously you don't understand hyperbole. 

I do not know if you have been in or not, but I cannot take your advice right now mostly because you haven't shown any evidence to "know more" than me. 

Further, if you must know try being unemployed with a MBA in Finance with zero experience right now. It's a tough market and since I can't find a job for the life of me for over 2 years guess what looks attractive as the green shots increasingly become more rare.

If I can save and invest a little money into silver before shit hits the fan I think I'd be better off in the Army than being unemployed with no money at all and increasing prices.

But then again may be I'm full of shit and you're right. You got better suggestions? I mean you could say relocate, but to where? China can't speak Mandarin, Britain? They're in bad shape to. Plus where would I get money to travel much less food or shelter? Or may be I could work for McDonalds for ten years and not get anywhere in life and live at home. 

Please until you have a better suggestion for my situation I'd highly recommend you keep your opinions to yourself. 

 

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:02 | 643905 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

What's your MOS?  How long was the wait between sign-up and ship-out?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:04 | 643915 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Protected from financial mishap, but in danger of needing new arms and legs.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 22:13 | 645100 i-dog
i-dog's picture

... and riddled with cancer from depleted uranium dust (in training and in theatre), followed by years of psychotherapy and drug addiction after returning from dodging IEDs in an asymetric hell-hole. Sounds like a good plan!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 23:57 | 645319 merehuman
merehuman's picture

I agree. been doing QE  all along. hasnt worked and they know it. Jig is up, time to drop the market, save the dollar for another little while, the game goes on...until it doesnt.

Its a real life changer for ALL of us. We got change...who knew it would be like this?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:26 | 643750 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

The QE amount will only matter to the daytraders and HFT algos.  No matter what the amount is, the Fed can't buy back the TRUST that has been lost in the market. 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:59 | 643898 Millennial
Millennial's picture

I beg to differ. QE is nothing short of inflation. While the masses may not notice it initially they will notice it when gas is back to $5 a gallon soon.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:34 | 643788 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

according to ZH "they've been all POMO all the time" for the past 6 weeks!  Announce "we're doing it now"?  Yeah, that'd be an interesting day!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:10 | 643674 morph
morph's picture

Even if they all said no chance of QE2 the market would go up because that would mean the economy is fixed.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:14 | 643683 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Only if they said no QE2 and kept some fairly rosy forecasts in there. They didn't however, they suggested slower growth. So the market would have gone down if no QE2. But that's a moot point now.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:08 | 643664 Tall Tree Man
Tall Tree Man's picture

Pilots have a term for this: controlled flight into terrain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_flight_into_terrain

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:25 | 643742 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Nice one. Been on glide path for 18 months now.

I give them 9 more months. Short a miracle ... gravity wins.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:36 | 643797 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

not only can this "go on for decades" it has been "done for decades" in the past.  boys with toys.  what to say.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:42 | 643833 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Past performance is no guarantee of future earnings.

Gravity wins. Bitchez.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:48 | 643858 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

This all has been 'done for decades' where exactly? What planet?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:09 | 643669 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

A lot of weasel phrases in that report...

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:10 | 643670 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Next stop Feudalism! All Aboard!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:27 | 643761 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Oh look everyone! An optimist!

Sorry. Feudalism is about 10 years down the road. Between now and Feudalism is 10 years of intervening We-are-fucked-ism. But yeah, then Feudalism will be a God-send.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:36 | 643802 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

rrroowww.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:10 | 643671 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

why would they come right out with the nuclear option when just the threat of doing it is having the same effect!!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:15 | 643686 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

I agree with you. Havent the markets already baked in a Trillion in QE?

Is not everyone already piled in for the past month expecting QE? I do not see what the big surpise is here just another excuse. I do not think they can do QE or certainly not to the magnitude they are pretending. Commodities would shoot straight up and a bereft unemployed middle class cannot afford it.

TARP 2 may be needed however

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:18 | 643699 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

The first one tacked on gigantic gains for the market. "Investors" don't want to miss that again, so they're piling in like lemmings.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:20 | 643711 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And the Hindu bulls will be crushed by November.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:44 | 643841 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Right but the first QE was from a considerably lower starting point and a large majority of the rally was due to shorts lambasted over and over and over again. So now those shorts have been taken out of the market permanently or long converted on this free money mentality. In the end earnings still have to correlate. Instead of shorting or going long those that do not wish to participate will buy gold and silver.
That cannot help the PD massive short pms trading book. Also the Fed in my opinion cannot afford QE considering they are under historic scrutiny. This risk of being long a rigged market just because te perception that It is rigged is not an incentive for me. Each day the markets become more reliant upon the Fed and can no longer stand on their own. One piece of news that cannot be contained or is not brushed aside and the markets can lose 10% in a day because the volume is showing us the prices are false. Best of luck but on principal alone I will not convert long and I'll likely go broke with that mentality buy if everything unwinds I cannot afford not to be short.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:38 | 643806 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

you mean they're not going to do QE 3?  YOOOUUUU BASSSSTTTT.......

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:53 | 643877 espirit
espirit's picture

Volumes been decreasing, insiders selling out, gold skyrocketing & dollah dropping, and the short interest is to da moon!

Personally, I don't see this as "good" economic conditions which will magically create jobs, rectify the mortgage mess, and raise the GDP without flooding with fiat.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:27 | 643755 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

The "string along" period could last indefinitely, very true. It appears that if they "did" decide to execute I'd wonder if they'd be able to agree on an amount close enough to the $Trill number. 'Cause if they can't/don't and come in low, it'll be as Krieger noted before, "The Worst Sell The News" event in history!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:07 | 643926 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

The hope is it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, without the need to actually pull the trigger.

I threaten a massive QE, you - through conditioning (asset prices rise in expectation of QE, they have always risen in expectation of QE. No, Japan doesn't exist and they are idiots and, anyhow, we have the benefit of learning from their mistakes and this is America we always do it bigger and better) - bid-up asset prices. An increase in the level of asset prices (no matter how relative they may be) generates a sort-of wealth effect. You feel wealthier and, through expert manipulation by marketeers and social pressures (neighbor bought a new car, I need a new car), consume in greater amounts. Your consumption drives additional production, and resource utilization slack begins to diminish. Hiring picks up, which drives further consumption and, with luck, a positive feedback loop is established.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:50 | 644102 perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

This is what Ben meant when he said that all you need is a "credible threat" of monetary easing.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 18:03 | 644570 Hellholeratrace
Hellholeratrace's picture

Problem with that is commodities would soar at the same time breaking the consumption loop.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:14 | 643680 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

only if the outlook worsened and the odds of deflation increased materially

Hope is NOT an investment strategy Wall Street!! (Especially if you keep gaming equities!) lol

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:29 | 643768 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Hope is a gambling strategy.

Investment? What planet did you say you where from again?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:37 | 643805 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

+1 lol ... uhhh, are we talking physical or spiritual form?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:40 | 643821 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

maybe both?  who says you can't look ahead while looking behind?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:14 | 643681 uberfinch
uberfinch's picture

It would be nice if they included a SINGLE number in this report... as it stand it doesn't say anything at all

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:22 | 643726 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Actually it says one thing loud and clear;  BUY BUY BUY!!!!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:24 | 643739 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes theyre begging for someone, anyone, to buy the garbage markets and therefore the trillions worth of equities the FED presently holds.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:23 | 643727 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nope, they said nothing at all, no numbers, no solid info, just a bunch of hype for Hindu bulls consumption. I bet within 2 weeks this whole market is 15% lower.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:33 | 643785 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Two weeks?  You must be a long term investor.

What do you think will happen in the next two minutes?  That's what matters to the machines.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:51 | 643870 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hmmm...well probably a lot of computers playing nuclear bid hot potato with themselves, to finish market over 11,000 just barely. But what about tomorrow? Maybe the FED can say theyll 'do something or other' again.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:41 | 644057 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Like the Fed said, BUY BUY BUY.

All is green captain; all is green.

I still have no idea why everyone isn't on board this gravy train.  The fed says they will inflate.  The fed says they will do whatever it takes to accomodate.  Everyone knows the fed cares only for banks and the markets.

Why isn't everyone on ZH making hay on these "freebies"?

It is after all, no matter how much one may dislike it, FREE MONEY!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:42 | 644060 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Like the Fed said, BUY BUY BUY.

All is green captain; all is green.

I still have no idea why everyone isn't on board this gravy train.  The fed says they will inflate.  The fed says they will do whatever it takes to accomodate.  Everyone knows the fed cares only for banks and the markets.

Why isn't everyone on ZH making hay on these "freebies"?

It is after all, no matter how much one may dislike it, FREE MONEY!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:15 | 643689 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Ben, please just dispense with the niceties and send me a fat check. If we're going to debase the currency to zero, I'd at least like an iPad before it happens. Thanks.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:36 | 643798 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

He's going to give it to you, you just have to work for it. Like just now. and you are gonna love an Ipad vs notebook.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 19:01 | 643866 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Or they should send everybody a courtesy apocalypse pallet from Costco, right?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:56 | 643888 espirit
espirit's picture

Heck Ben, I'll take a Mil or two with which I can buy an iPad.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:16 | 643693 Hondo
Hondo's picture

The problem is the Fed doesn't understand economics...basically you can say they are illiterate when it comes to economics.  Of course they could always be stupid or corrupt.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:28 | 643764 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Or maybe they are pining for the fjords.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:37 | 643804 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Illiterate, stupid or corrupt.

Makes you mad, don't it? But you know I could actually live with any or all of those being in play here. It would mean that someone not [illiterate|stupid|corrupt] could come along and just fix this whole mess. We'd have to find that someone, or they would have to volunteer. Either way, the problem has a limit within human bounds.

Problem is though they are not. Any of those things.

What they are is trapped. And with them, all of us.

You think about that a moment. You think about them knowing exactly what they are doing but they cannot do anything, and then get back to me on how you feel about this situation, and our chances of getting out of this fix by any means short of an apocalypse.

I give it 9 more months. Short of a miracle, in about 9 months we all get to see what awaits us on the other side of trapped.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:42 | 643827 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

actually they're genius's.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:17 | 643697 truont
truont's picture

"focused primarily...on possible steps to affect inflation expectations"

Read:  suppress commodity prices.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:19 | 643705 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Read more carefully: They want to increase short-term inflation expectations.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:39 | 643816 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Bingo.

Mind games. At the end of the world.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:43 | 643836 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

yeah they're looking for something to go up, that's for sure.

Wed, 10/13/2010 - 00:06 | 645328 merehuman
merehuman's picture

they have yet to find viagra

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:26 | 643746 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gee I thought they were focused like a laser beam on job creation...now its a laser focus on monkeying with inflation expectations? Why anyone would put a dime within the reach of these crazed Batman villains is unbelievable.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:17 | 643698 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Wow just think, unemployment near 10% and the fed wants to create inflation, thats gonna hurt. Anyone had a look at wheat and corn and meat prices lately. Boy the 99ers are going to go hay wire.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:19 | 643703 wafflehead
wafflehead's picture

shiney to 1500

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:20 | 643709 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thanks, Fed - you just cleared the way for an historic landmark: AAPL to hit 300 in very short order on your "news". Well, it wasn't really news but the desired effect has been achieved.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:21 | 643721 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Just think of it as your COLA adjustment.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:24 | 643738 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Looks like AAPL is not liking the news now...maybe increased commodity costs will squeeze margins and make the P/E even more lofty.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:34 | 643790 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Apple doing nothing, and markets back to red. No ones buying the FED BS anymore.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:49 | 643861 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Really, cuz I'm seeing indices all green and AAPL up a couple of bucks.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:53 | 643876 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hmm well Im seeing markets flat, and Apple was up that $1.70 earlier.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:49 | 644094 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Hmmm....300 is approaching any minute now. Looking good to me.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:25 | 643715 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When this is all blows up these fcks need to be strung up for everybody to see what happens to people who commit crimes against humanity. But  they will probably get a big fat bonus instead and a comfortable place to live while the rest of the dregs scavenge for scraps.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:21 | 643717 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anytime the market is a 'done deal, 100% certainty only possible way to go is up from here' watch out.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:21 | 643719 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Performance anxiety is setting in for those who are either short or out of the market.

They better chase some winners or they will be fired after 12/31.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:26 | 643748 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Maybe you can send them all your charts and point them the way to riches?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:27 | 643752 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

that is a good point, rt.

more money should be coming into stocks as a result, even if many had already priced it in.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:27 | 643754 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yep. You cannot short this market into year end when the Boyz need their books to look good. Throw a gigantic amount of Fed money in there and presto! all the books look good and bonuses for everyone!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:45 | 643843 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Oh yeah, you can't short the market leading up to the mid terms, you can't short the market on options expirations weeks, you can't short the market on FOMC meetings weeks, you can't short the market on FOMC meeting minutes weeks and now you can't short the market into year end. Great, sounds like free money. Now if I could figure out what to do with all this paper besides buying gold, I'd be all set.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:50 | 643863 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Good strategy - buy equities into year end along with gold. Sell your equities in Jan 2011 and buy more gold with the profits.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:55 | 643885 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, pick any day of the year, and thats a bad time to short the markets for whatever reason. Standing back from this mess I see everyone in calm as Hindu bulls, 100% certain it can only go far higher...I sense a big Hindu bull massacre here soon.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:22 | 643975 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

well, u could QE me, taraxias.  just an idea...

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:27 | 643760 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea Robo well thats what theyre begging for any idiot remaining to do, come buy some of the FEDs trillion worth of garbage equities off their hands. Not working too well.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:36 | 643796 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hmmm Robo looks like no ones really impressed by the bearded clam Bernanke and his non-comments. No Q/E2 will be delivered at all, well before Nov youll see the markets lose 15%+.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:39 | 643815 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Your "rally" seems to be deflating Robo....

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:39 | 644047 VWbug
VWbug's picture

don't know what you are looking at...I see stocks up

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 16:13 | 644200 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Yes, thank you, I see it reversed... look at the TIME I posted the comment. Thanks for keeping the place honest!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:22 | 643722 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

The banks are loving it, more free spread money wheeeeeeee free money $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:21 | 643723 99er
Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:22 | 643725 Amsterdammer
Amsterdammer's picture

Print 1 trillion every year, or every month, debase

the $, End-point Endgame: Zimbabwe

Cronyism at new heights, Ben has traded in his

helicopter for a Reaper, to smoothly kill the middle

class and its remains, motherfucker !

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:23 | 643731 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

So since qe is baked In, they'll need qe3 to help since the market will crash and sell on news.

Fucking bananas

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:29 | 643767 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Nope. Market will not sell on the news unless it's a very lite version of QE2 which is not going to be the case. Also, with year end approaching and the need to get your books looking like you made money, there will be no real selling in this market until early next year. Til then, it's party on!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:36 | 643800 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Darn, market already selling.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:24 | 643736 EB
EB's picture

Let's not leave out Brian Sack's contribution:

Developments in Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet
The Manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) reported on developments in domestic and foreign financial markets during the period since the Committee met on August 10, 2010. He also reported on System open market operations during the intermeeting period, including the implementation of the Committee's decision at the August meeting to reinvest principal payments on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in longer-term Treasury securities. Following the August meeting, the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that purchase operations would follow a schedule that would be released in the middle of each month, with the amounts calibrated to offset the amount of principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received from the middle of the month to the middle of the following month. The Desk conducted 12 such operations over the intermeeting period and purchased about $28 billion of Treasury securities, with maturities concentrated in the 2- to 10-year sector of the nominal Treasury curve, although purchases were made across both the nominal and inflation-protected Treasury coupon yield curves. The Manager also briefed the Committee on progress in developing temporary reserve draining tools. Over the intermeeting period, the Federal Reserve announced a schedule for ongoing small-value auctions of term deposits. The auctions, which will be held about every other month, are intended to ensure the operational readiness of the term deposit facility and to increase the familiarity of eligible participants with the auction procedures. In addition, the Desk continued to conduct small-scale tri-party reverse repurchase operations using MBS collateral with the primary dealers, and it published a list of money market mutual funds that have been accepted as counterparties for reverse repurchase operations. The Manager also discussed plans to publish a new set of criteria that would allow a broader set of money market funds to become eligible counterparties. There were no open market operations in foreign currencies for the System's account over the intermeeting period. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk's transactions over the intermeeting period.

No mention of balance sheet targeting.  

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:45 | 643839 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Thanks You for the conveyance since some may miss this element. We are acting also to avoid Commercial Paper as many are also since generating earning's was never the issue in supply chain. Bolt on plays subject to net working capital realities will play out since secondary's are that - Not needed. Management risk slid lower into the deck for MM " eligible counterparties."  is a function that was IMO not the core focus but part of the process it appears being lower in the foodchain. Capital will return when sanity returns to regions we had to leave.

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:25 | 643741 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Jack up food and energy so the Fed can look smart, thats gonna hurt alot of good people who have exhausted there unemployment and still can't find work, and all for what? free markets hahahahaha what a joke.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:26 | 643749 buchesky
buchesky's picture

My take on the minutes was that there is growing dissension among  the minority.  It appears it's not just Hoenig that wants to see "materially" greater deflation before taking further action.  I think there's a good chance the Fed will disappoint on Nov. 3.

"Many participants noted that if economic growth remained too slow to make satisfactory progress toward reducing the unemployment rate or if inflation continued to come in below levels consistent with the FOMC's dual mandate, it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation. However, others thought that additional accommodation would be warranted only if the outlook worsened and the odds of deflation increased materially."

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:30 | 643770 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, from here on out Bernanke will keep saying nice things, but never actually deliver a Q/E2 because he cant. But he'll keep saying hes open to the idea to keep the morons playing and losing.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:41 | 643824 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Everyone knows qe2 will do nothing, but the market needs it just to maintain it's levels now. But of course unless its over a trillion they'll sell on the news because its baked in or not enough.

Stock pickers and those banking on earnings growth will feel the pinch when input costs rise and our domestic market falls as we are all taxed with higher commodity prices.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:46 | 643848 buchesky
buchesky's picture

Impossible to say what's actually priced in.  I covered all my shorts before the minutes were released.  I'll likely go short financials again in the near-term.  Too many possible headwinds.  Only risk to shorting that I see is the possibility that tax cuts get extended for all.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:56 | 643890 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Market needs more what? More imagination?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:15 | 643947 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

first of is it "id" or "I'd" fight Gandhi?  Because if it's the latter would it really be worth it? second this is an interesting point but i think some math would be in order.  we have had these "higher commodity prices" for some time and given their relative size to our economy "they would have to rise enormously" before it would materially impact our "economy."  insofar as "you or me," well....Gandhi's record wasn't too good in India so maybe you're on to something.  Imagine, however "just 10 dollar loaves of bread."  is this good GOVERNMENT policy?  i mean "aren't they subject to the laws of compound interest, too"?  perhaps a better way to put it..."imagine ten cent loaves of bread."  which would you want if you're the government? just "food for thought" as they say.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:26 | 643751 HitTheFan
HitTheFan's picture

Is it not patently ridiculous to anyone with an ounce of common sense?

Bernanke thinks it is GOOD news that higher inflation happens, and all you Americans (and the rest of the World) should celebrate because it will mean your 'real' interest rates will be lower.

Is there no one in your country that can stop them? What about the TEA party?

It needs to happen very soon or you poor guys are done for.

I'm in the UK, we need a strong US, and you all have my sympathy, and my hopes are with you. Sort it out, somehow.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 16:54 | 644365 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

ben is in the spot light a little too much (a mistake for it brings more light on the cabal running things)

..more of us here are waking up..

but change is slow so slow. Nothing can change the fall of the FED, they, as it is stated over and over here on ZH, can extend the game but the outcome is not in doubt.

Freedom from the money masters is just a matter of time now.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:28 | 643756 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

QE2 is an admission of failure and death.  They cannot keep doing this for the next ten years.  

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:31 | 643773 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

It is precisely an admission that things ain't looking so hot. But, market and economy are two different animals. Hence, more money floating around out there gives the illusion of better corporate profits. And that, translates into higher equity prices.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:38 | 643809 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nope, just desperate FED cattle calls for someone to come buy the trillions worth of equity trash sitting on their books. Maybe Bernanke can call out Bob Doll again to tell people buyin stocks here is a real good deal.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 16:21 | 644239 Kali
Kali's picture

Precisely.  The only way I can look at this action and stay sane is to see that it buys me a little more time to prepare for the big splat of the turd on the fan. 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:32 | 643762 Hondo
Hondo's picture

The Fed is totally out of control.  What is too slow economic growth??  What is their satisfactory unemployment rate???  What are their levels of inflation that would  be consistent with the FOMC’s dual mandate.  They get to mouth off on bull shit without defining anything.  They are totally incompetent for the responsibility they have….and the people should either demand the answers so that everyone that has a vested interest knows or we should just disband the whole organization due to their corrupting effect on the global economy, jobs and economic sanity.

 

The fallacy of thinking by raising inflation expectations people are going to rush out and consume today is complete economic bull shit.  They will continue to save and move those savings into hard assets or into currencies (countries) that have better monetary policies (I actually think the EU is making better progress here than the US).  There are thousands on individuals in this country multiiple of times smarter than these idiots in charge......find them and put them in office.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:34 | 643787 Jim B
Jim B's picture

+1

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:38 | 643807 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Well said.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 16:22 | 644240 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

This is why the Fed was always a secretive organization.  Greenspan used to get on Capitol Hill and speak in a cryptic manner that had everyone thinking that the Fed must be smart because the had no idea what in the hell Greenspan was talking about.  People thought "Surely he must be a fucking Zen Buddha Kung-Fu Master that can do whip-ass on the economy any time he wants."

Ben Bernanke in his desire for a more 'open' Fed has taken away the verbal clout their closed-door secret society provided them.  He's revealed them to be nothing but a bunch of limp-dick economists with no clue as to what the real drivers of the economy are.  Now he has to throw giant sums of money at the economy to show his importance the same way other men his age use a new Corvette to show their manliness. 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:28 | 643766 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

How is lifting raw material prices going to help the unemployed. Fed wants to create inflation this is real scary stuff. I don't think the people know what there doing, seems totally out of control. Like a mad man gone wild.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:32 | 643776 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

This will start a second american revolution.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:37 | 643769 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Yep! Nothing like a fresh start, eh? FEDs are fighting for survival, they know they will lose this one, be dismantled and disappear, so, they are getting one more honey pot for themselves, fuck the taxpayer, the US and so forth. Hmh, I wonder no more that they will be gone, 5 years max folks! Expect what your imagination cannot contemplate! Think of this, FED is PRIVATE yet decides over fate of 310M Americans!!! None of these citizens voted for their currency to be literally destroyed yet it happens, daily!!! ANYONE thinking this will have no bitter consequences is NAIVE!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:30 | 643772 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Snif sniff. Smells like QE2 is not going to go big ... Buy some time for China who is staring at 30% moves in commodities in a month or so. The Chinese can then decide how they want to handle the RMB issue. Who said that Timmy and Co. are not Sinophiles? And Americans? If Uncle Ben hits the QE2 button in earnest on Nov 3, everyone can apply for food stamps ...

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:31 | 643775 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Here Ben, read this at your next FOMC minutes.....

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."  Thomas Jefferson

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:18 | 643957 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

"get to work, slave."  Thomas Jefferson.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 16:45 | 644334 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

truth in yur statement mr doo little..but also remember Mr Jefferson gave you a country that allows such freedom, your real enemy is pointed out every day here on ZH. Mr Jefferson was a product of 17th century but speaks still to us with great insight..I tend not to ridicule  the greatness of those who did not have the benefit of the changes of the last 200 yrs ,those great men in part provided for and expected those changes to happen.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:32 | 643779 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Thank you, Mr. Bernanke for destroying what was left of my retirement savings and the purchasing power of the paper in my wallet.  Fucker! 

Sincerely,

Retirees living on Social Security

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:20 | 643963 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

you'd think a former slave would know better.  then again...MAYBE HE DOES!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:32 | 643782 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Hum, gentlemen, I am looking for the next fool available to take over my 10.000 ES long position...anybody bidding higher than 1165.50 ? Citadel, Tradeworxx, Paulson, Peak6, Soros Endowment, Optiver, Sun Trading, DRKW ? :=)))

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:28 | 644009 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Filled. Found enough two-year-brains willing to follow above 1065.50. :=)))))))))

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:34 | 643791 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

'increase in inflation... stimulating the economy'

 

nuff said; this is pathetic lunacy.

 

they will steal the wealth of the future surreptitiously until they steal the wealth of the present.

 

 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:41 | 643822 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernanke is Colonel Kurtz, up the river and gone quite insane...who will be the delivery boy collecting a bill for the clerk?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:07 | 643925 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the horror.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:36 | 643794 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Ladies and gentlemen!  Boys and Girls of all ages!  Welcome to Zimbabwe Ben's Wild Ride to Infinity!  It's got chills, it's got spills, surprises around every corner.  It will be the most memorable experience in your life.  We promise you will never forget it, or your money back*!

The best part is, there are no rules.  Anything can happen on this ride.  Now get ready to start your printing presses!

Disclaimer:

Zimbabwe Ben's Wild Ride to Infinity is not recommended for those suffering from the conditions, gout, diabetes, gigantism, dwarfism, albinism, Aurophobia, the elderly, the young, the middle aged, the healthy, the disabled, the living or the dead.  Zimbabwe Ben is not liable for any lose of; life, purchasing power, sanity, family, nationhood, statehood, hair, relationships, or property.

* Money back is at nominal notational value at time of purchase.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:38 | 643810 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

"You maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWphqA1Slrw

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:18 | 643959 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

One of the best scenes in Sci-Fi movie history. IMO.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:45 | 643820 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

The solution is surprisingly simple:

Condition those in emerging economies to covet the (rapidly deteriorating) lifestyle of those in mature economies. This can be accomplished by the exportation of images of opulence followed by seemingly logical reasoning on why it is desirable (chicks dig it! and conspicuous consumption can give you a bit of a high). Then flip-flop, on a relative basis, the economies; where those in the mature markets produce for those in the emerging. The problem, of course, is those in the mature economies, through their own evolution, recognize the environmental perils of still relatively primitive manufacturing processes. So scrap that. Instead, set the direction of the entire system to converge toward the lowest common denominator while -- assuming we are to be benevolent -- elevating the absolute level of the same.

And, of course, reward yourself handsomely for engineering the scheme.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:50 | 643831 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Oh Maaaaako, calling Maaaaaako!

Hear that 'whup whup whup' sound, Mako? That's the sound of a fresh set of helicopters warming up on the ipad.

Though I agree: they certainly aren't going to save us. See, you don't have to be a lemming to read the writing on the wall...

On the other hand,

"Participants noted a number of possible strategies for affecting short-term inflation expectations, including providing more detailed information about the rates of inflation..."

is a pretty sneaky statement. Does it mean that the FED could ask Shadowstats for their inflation rates calculated using pre-80's variables? That would certainly go a long way to creating an honest boost in the officially reported rate of inflation...

ZH's prompt coverage of events like this is just another reason why it is speeding towards becoming the top (already there in my book) market commentary site of the internets.

Regards

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:48 | 643857 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

With all the studies out showing the minimal impact QE 2 will have on the economy, is  the Fed capable of dumping all of that QE leverage into the stock market -- exclusively -- creating a massive stock-wealth effect bubble-- that lifts not only the stock market, but the housing market, and the commodity market, re: late 90's early 2000.  From their perspective, down the road, it would be easier to deal with a hyper inflated stock bubble, than a hyper deflated economy.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 15:15 | 643948 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Cover eyes while Wall Street blows a bubble. Followed by: dissemination of research pieces explaining how it isn't really a bubble, it's a new economy. However when said bubble inevitably pops, issue more research pieces explaining how it was impossible to identify the bubble. Then move in to mop up the mess by supporting the beneficiaries, or "winners", of the bubble while declaring the "losers" as, literally, losers and obviously incapable of adapting, and write it off as collateral damage.

Repeat.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:52 | 643874 redpill
redpill's picture

I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving. 

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:55 | 643879 taraxias
taraxias's picture

There will be no QEII (they'll continue to monetize in stealth mode like they have already been doing, but no overt QEII). QEII ends the FED. They are immoral but they are certainly not stupid. All they've done is jawbone the market into believing that QEII is coming to deliver a rising market to Obama leading into the midterms and cheaper energy to Europe. This course will reverse, and violently, right after the midterms.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 14:59 | 643896 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Taraxias yep, Bernanke has nothing left except hype. Could be right after the mid terms, or before since a 'rising market' isnt impressing anyone according to the polls, to save The Messiah his election humiliation.

Wed, 10/13/2010 - 00:22 | 645353 merehuman
merehuman's picture

i expect austerity next year in spring to exceed expectations.

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