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FOMC Minutes: Fed Sees No Need For Additional "Policy Accomodation", 5 To 6 Years Of Economic Weakness
On negative views on unemployment:
Participants expected the pace of hiring to remain low for some time. Indeed, the unemployment rate was generally expected to remain noticeably above its long-run sustainable level for several years, and participants expressed concern about the extended duration of unemployment spells for a large number of workers. Participants also noted a risk that continued rapid growth in productivity, though clearly beneficial in the longer term, could in the near term act to moderate growth in the demand for labor and thus slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalizes.
On the economic outlook:
The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside...Some participants judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the downside, particularly in the near term, in light of the large amount of resource slack already prevailing in the economy, the significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity, and the possibility that inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to low actual inflation. A few participants cited some risk of deflation. Other participants, however, thought that inflation was unlikely to fall appreciably further given the stability of inflation expectations in recent years and very accommodative monetary policy. Over the medium term, participants saw both upside and downside risks to inflation. Several participants noted that a continuation of lower-than-expected inflation and high unemployment could eventually lead to a downward movement in inflation expectations that would reinforce disinflationary pressures. By contrast, a few participants noted the possibility that a potentially unsustainable fiscal position and the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could boost inflation expectations and actual inflation over time.
On the duration of economic collapse:
Participants generally anticipated that, in light of the severity of the economic downturn, it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longerrun path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation consistent with participants’ interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives; most expected the convergence process to take no more than five to six years. About one-half of the participants now judged the risks to the growth outlook to be tilted to the downside, while most continued to see balanced risks surrounding their inflation projections. Participants generally continued to judge the uncertainty surrounding their projections for both economic activity and inflation to be unusually high relative to historical norms.
On Hoenig's "Rebellion With A Cause":
Mr. Hoenig dissented because he believed that, as the economy completed its first year of modest recovery, it was no longer advisable to indicate that economic and financial conditions were likely to warrant “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Although risks to the forecast remained, Mr. Hoenig was concerned that communicating such an expectation would limit the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly in a timely fashion and could result in a buildup of future financial imbalances and increase the risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability.
On the probability of further QE:
In sum, the changes to the outlook were viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place.
We give this last statement a shelf life of 3-6 months.
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Market started to sell off but then decided it was no big fucking deal. What's five to six years of weakness for already massively overpriced equities?
JC must be repudiated and Carthago (the Fed) delenda est.
JC = a certain confetti (h/t Travis).
So now that the sell-off has run its course and there's nobody left in the market along comes the PPT at 14:30 - pretty much right on schedule - to complete the cycle with a zero-volume melt-up to a flat close.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
To infinity.
-2 on the DOW. Man, that's some cold blooded & corrupt shit.
Ain't it, though?
One might be forgiven for thinking it's... unprecidented.
Aaaaaand - BANG! - There it is!
A perfectly orchestrated zero-volume melt-up to an almost perfectly flat close.
Give 'em a hand, folks. It's hard freaking work making such gross and blatant manipulation look that easy. Hard - freaking - work.
I'm sure the CNBC clown otherwise known as "No Mas" will come around shortly and tell you that there is no PPT and to grow up..
On that note - how much did the US spend today propping up the market? *sigh*
So what do you do??? Do you fight the tape??? No... when you see S&P500 holding at 1090 when it should be selling like crazy you buy the shit out of XLF calls, knowing that the banksters report tomorrow and Friday and they are going to have stellar numbers.... or do you think that Ben and Obama are going to let all the 401K go South... no way.
At this point it should be clear that no matter what this market is going to go up, interest rates at 0 for as long as the eye can see...
If we don't have problem with EU then is just melt up time!!
Do you fight the tape??
Well no, of course not. If you're going to try to play in this Casino Royalle, that is - and take your chances that you can read The Squid's mind at each step in the process.
But as I don't have any skin in the market at the moment (having employed what little I had to the cause of debt retirement) I can - and do - only marvel from the sidelines.
.
We give this last statement a shelf life of 3-6 months.
I'd give it 3-6 weeks - your timeframe doesn't allow for any attempts to help Team Blue in the upcoming mid-terms.
Team Red, I think.
The writing's on the wall for the current girlfriend, who's looking a little 30ish. Wall Street is already meeting the next in sleazy motels, and has a mover lined up to pack boxes in the House of Reps. One market crash coming right up; September might be about right. Get Monster QE thru without tarnishing any new faces.
Out with the old in with the new in 3...2...1...
You could very well be right about that, excellent point.
I don't however think Obambi is going to take kindly to being tossed under his own bus by the likes of a cracker like Benron. He's not going to go quietly into the good night, in other words.
Could get, interesting.
I don't understand those who believe QE is the next tactical move taken by the power-elite. Right now, these guys are sitting pretty with excess (cash) reserves extorted from American taxpayers.
Even though the banksters weren't astute enough to sell at the top of the market, they were still able to bribe/pull some strings to get Dems elected who would do their bidding. These fools performed as directed in order that the pigs be made whole via TARP & various Fed programs.
Now, what do pigs wish for when holding the Peoples' cash? For prices to drop, that's what. So, how does this group engage overall deflation (defined as total credit-money contraction) in order to facilitate said price declines?
Why, to bribe/pull some strings to get Reps elected who will do their bidding. These fools will most likely perform as directed in order to enrich the pigs via austerity & other budgetary/monetary contraction programs.
Will default/repudiation/re-structuring ever be on the table? Noooo. Not, that is, until the very fabric of the Republic is unraveling - say in around 1-2 years. Then we'll get a "strong-man" who will tell the public the truth about what's been goin' down.
After that, a 20 year depression in which we get to de-lever & work out $trillions in mal-investment.
I see your point. Indeed, asset price deflation benefits the wealthy, except for those who are holding said assets.
But, there was a lot of talk from Obama at the G20 meeting about looser policy, and Evans-Pritchard had a great rant about it just afterward as well, so I have to think there's someone who is prepping the way (or was attempting to).
I can see pretty clearly that the US is already edging its way into austerity despite the loose-policy rhetoric. Wouldn't a QE program continue to mask this, in the same way the last one did? If austerity isn't the official policy, then the electorate might not blame the administration for the austerity they're experiencing...that sort of thing.
Whereas the Brits, for example...they'll know who to blame, and for what.
For all the incessant caterwauling about debt, deficits and pork barrel projects, politicians do one thing to get elected/re-elected: buy votes.
The calls for QE2.0 assumes that there is enough anger over unemployment to force politicians to promise the Ben will man the presses again. Then, and this step is important, actually follow through.
But, Congress can't even get unemployment bennies extended. So, fat chance for a Govt mandated QE2 inflationary event.
Bwahaha! Easier to beg forgiveness that to get permission -- since when does the FED actually wait for the Govt. to tell them what to do?
If they cannot manage to include the words "debt" and "deleveraging" in their current communiques to the public, I doubt they are anywhere close to ready for strongman austerity measures. Just a my little observation that the Fed continues to choose the head in the sand approach.
I do agree with most of your takes, though. Banks and related institutions have been able to suck in capital during this period of reflation-- whether it be direct infusions, share/bond issuance, or the incoming spread benefits from ZIRP-- with no uprising from the electorate. And from all this capital transferrence, where are these excess reserves going?
Nowhere, really. It's just sitting in cash, or in Treasuries-- and in special situations, prop trading activities (what I call short burst equity). If you really think to where all that supplemental capital is being parked-- and that the elite/banksters of the world want to preserve as much of that capital as possible, then it appears that investors in risk assets (especially equites) are being set up again. One thing you don't hear is many in the US ponzi system parking those reserves into gold... which I find intriguing. Perhaps I'm totally wrong in my observations-- or am coming to the wrong conclusions-- but I'm believing that TPTB want/expect the fiat to maintain its relative value. Otherwise, they'd be backing up a different truck.
The elite may have every incentive to let the most recent asset bubble collapse on its own weight-- under their own timing-- and repeat the cycle of theft all over again. Once they milk J6P of his 401K equities, then they will flood the market with liquidity and milk J6P again with higher inflation/interest rates (Timmy just needs a little more time before QE 2.0, though).
Problem is, if they milk the market for risk assets again, they may not have enough capital to steal from to make much of a difference on the next round.
QE1 didn't really help the economy since the velocity of money tanked. Perception by the voters is that it was a failed attempt so why would they do it again? Tea baggers are growing in numbers, Massholes now have a Republican Senator and Obama's ratings are dropping. They need a real policy change that creates jobs/incomes, not just more liquidity.
How about a policy, period? Uncertainty is hindering job growth.
Should be good for at least another 400 points minimum on the Dow. <sarcasm off>
How about another 3.70 points instead? :)
Next step will be to reinvest MBS paydowns into longer dated treasuries. At current levels of rates/prepayments - could be 200-250bb over the next year. Economy is not unfolding as they want - they will want to keep total balance sheet from shrinking as the MBS pays down
My name Borat, I support Mr Bernanke program to transform US an A into Khasakstan in 5 years.
Hi 5 Tim.... wawawewaaaa
Borat just imagine the bonanza in 'top #1 prostitute, my sister' competitions in New Ameriztan! How much for the little girl...the women...I want to buy your women.
Komrad Bernanke has really happy acquaintance you Borat. Support, support good! Harasho!
As I sign of recognition my country will send a present to Mr Bernanke... a rubber fist...
He use to stuff in capitalist mouth. Give rubber chicken to Komrad Bernanke - he happy chicken.
Whoa Nellie - No OVERT QE2 you mean.
Realistically, other than shrinking bank reserves for liquidity, there's gotta be something else that happens before November. The Fed is a political institution lately, forget independent central bank.
So what shape will liquidity take in the next months or so?
At the moment, there's no political will in Congress to do anything, states are not going to be bailed out. QE1 has failed. Maybe this is the crash and burn.
now that they got their bailouts and dumped the toxics on the taxpayers and get the finreg they wanted .. they need the republicans to come in and institute the austerity measures to protect their wealth (now make the poor taxpayers pay for the debt)
as far as all this manipulation talk .. i agree it's manipulated, but my hunch is the real manipulations were to the downside.
they crashed the market to get tarp .. they manipulate it down to get european bonds bailed out .. recently they flash crashed to get finreg the way they wanted, or to stop the fed audit.
you want to sell .. oh the price is way down here, oh now you want to buy .. the price is way up here
i think the market may still have downside but only because they won't let those who chased the recent rally get away with a profit.
they won't stop till they have it all.
Republicans raise taxes in a Depression ?
Restore the Gold/Silver standard, replace the income tax with a VAT tax, repeal ObamaCare, cut defense spending, repeal entitlements (Welfare, SSI, Affirmative Action), finish the Mexican border wall, expel all illegals, and finally
...default on the national debt (and everyone will as well).
Then we can have a balanced budget and recover within 2 years to a booming kick-ass economy.
+ 1 troy oz
cut defense spending? with invading Iran on the horizon I doubt it.
Correct except that there were not just flashing warning signs, there were ample opportunities to exit the market in 2008.
Pundits talking about mortgages and housing, Bear Stearns failed, Lehman failed. The insiders offloaded their stock and when their family told their friends the crash accelerated.
Same is happening again imo.
Not sure if this is the equivalent to 2007 or 2008 today though. The top could have been in April with a slow and controlled descend until the controls don't work and the slide happens which would put us into March 2011 for bottom. Then a slow and agonizing recovery without liquidity intervention and without growth at first to reach current highs again in about 2020.
Be in cash and gold until bottom falls out and then buy the last standing blue chips for cents on the dollar.
Right on. To make it worse, you have to be in default before the banks will even consider a loan mod. or short sale. That's their way of screwing you with higher interest rates in future when interest rates remain low.
Good Bye Dow.
THEY...WILL...NEVER...RAISE...RATES.
The Fed will either be burned to the ground, or turned into a mausoleum or museum before.
Thank you + 1084
THEY...WILL...NEVER...RAISE...RATES.
Spot on. The markets may be on their own.
The Tachometer shows we redlined at 14Trillion when the engine seized -- now you wanna put in motor oil? Reality done left the building on Elvis' flying suacer!
Liesman just said this report is actually bullish.
Lies.....man.
Now that I think about it, it is bullish....for gold.
It is. For treasuries.
Uuuuhm.....????
You are supposed to use the <sarcasm> button, unless you have a cute name like Nat Rothschilde.
Hey, are you saying that my moniker is not cute <g> ? Maybe I should go with VenVernanke or GimTeithner?
No, I'm serious for the short term. It's Pavlovian for funds. Cut liquidity with no QE, allow market to tank and see what happens to treasuries. Longer term, liquidity WILL be injected,so agreed that PMs will benefit the most.
Haha! Nice names...
Ok, so "Short term" then...fair enough.
No...seriously?
That just puts the cherry on top the sundae that John Williams served up on Shadowstats. See ZH post here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shadowstats-john-williams-exposes-medias-propaganda-spin-watching-cnbc-can-be-hazardous-your
LOL, fed release and a minute later cnbc has jarret on to tout the "business friendly" WH and blame Bush.
Up is Down. Left is Right. Good is Bad, and Obama knows the recipe for the "secret sauce".
Plan accordingly.
ya that sucks and his finger is fatter than ben and timmays... also he will blow ben just to prop things up... that is "secret sauce"
"relatively modest" = "well-contained"
but it's still a recovery, right??!!
This give gold at least another 5 to 6 year run up in price.
Gold bicthes!!!
What is this about "Fed saw fails to deliver in mortgage backed securities market had reached very high levels in recent months" ?!?
Repo fails? Original sellers not wanting their MBS trash back?
I'm looking for this - fascinating. You found in minutes?
Here's what it actually said...
ruh-roh.
Thank you. That's a really long time for settlement. Repo purchases 18 to 3 months ago with settlement problems 1-2 months ago? Handy for the banks to simply be able to substitute securities with approval of Fed that then sold "the scare securities that it had not yet received". Doesn't seem "appropriate" to me despite what meeting participants agreed unless the compensation for the coupon swap reflected fair value.
I remember having repo rates on scarce securities commanded higher market value. Sounds like another give away by the Fed to their favorite bankers.
6 years is a freakin' long time! Let the damn thing crash already and we can start to rebuild! This is a slow death. A gut shot to the economy.
off to the races!
". . . it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longerrun path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation . . . " Not more than 5-6 years.
Good 'ol Sesame Street ADD America cannot wait 5-6 years. Will not wait. So what will the Attention Span of a Gnat America do? Will the rest of the world settle into slow and not so steady? Unfettered free markets are not working currently - will they begin to in this timeframe? What forces beside additional asset deflation will reduce us to a point where the longerrun path can be hopped back onto?
". . . it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longerrun path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation . . . " Not more than 5-6 years.
Good 'ol Sesame Street ADD America cannot wait 5-6 years. Will not wait. So what will the Attention Span of a Gnat America do? Will the rest of the world settle into slow and not so steady? Unfettered free markets are not working currently - will they begin to in this timeframe? What forces beside additional asset deflation will reduce us to a point where the longerrun path can be hopped back onto?
Fixed it for you.
Anyone frontrunning the job #s tomorrow to the shortside?
Haven't crunched the numbers, but watch for the seasonals. I believe the autos usually laid off this time of year, and won't be doing so this year. So, might have a positive impact on the numbers (no typical layoffs, so seasonally better then usual). Don't know, just something to be aware of.
lets just say we confirmed downtrend today on some volume in both bonds and equity... maybe.. talk to GS
hey tyler - we need a refresh of bens desktop
who bot INTC last night @ 22.60ish
Wait a minute, didn't President Obama and Chairman Bernanke just have a press conference a couple of weeks ago saying the recovery was going swimmingly? It just don't add up!
To all those pushing for austerity measures, you got it. Now live with further asset price destruction, higher unemployment and stagnation (at best) for many years to come.
You will soon realize that the QE2 threat was really a Trojan horse for austerity. Banks have the money and you are left with the depreciating assets and pay cuts. Way to go guys.
Spot on!
The boys over in Warren, Deaborne, and Auburn Hills just started feverish work on the 2012 Hoover-mobiles.
Bypass development costs by using some commi scraps.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1658545_1658533_1658030,00.html
A buddy of mine once bought a brand spankas Yugo which had a faulty window winding mechanism (window permanantly closed). After pulling the lining off to examine it, he realised they guttered the entire mechanicals out and replaced it with a stick.
What would your solution be? To inflate and debase the currency even further?
I don't think most people on this board favor austerity per se, they just believe there is no decent solution out of this cluster-f*ck. Inflation for inflation's sake only rises the cost of living for oil, food, tuition, etc. Without any resulting wage inflation (since unemployment is so high). Remember the '70's stagflation? There isn't any real increase in wealth or purchasing power, it's just all imaginary (or worse).
A debt reckoning is inevitable, IMHO. To much excess capacity and structural inefficiencies. So, can't speak for others, I don't want a deflationary debt spiral, but consider it to be the likely future, without any attractive alternatives.
And yes, the banks have stolen our money.
I think there's a way out.
Default.
Individual, corporate, sovereign.
But I agree, it's not a decent one....
If we default, so will the world. So it won't so bad.
Actually, I have NO problem with default.
That's what's supposed to happen. That's both justice and inevitability. (Mr Anderson)
I was being partly ironic saying 'decent'. :-) And partly not...gonna mean a lot of pain for me and mine. Some of 'mine' are in way, way over their heads...so that's pain for me too.
But trying to postpone pain, especially the inevitable kind, is just stupid.
Iceland survived. Ireland is taking their medicine. Etc. etc.
Iceland threw the banksters out (100% haircut for them) and de-levered... and by some miracle the sun kept appearing each morning and the chickens laid their eggs and people got on with their lives. Contrast this very real scenario with the end-of-the-world apocolypse scenario that Paulson/Geithner/et al. described if we taxpayers did NOT bailout Wall St. in 2008...
Iceland has already proven that TPTB (banks) are full-of-shit x10. The biggest losers in allowing a deflationary/inflationary "reset" are the bankers and power brokers. They are in a no-win situation of sorts, but it really doesn't matter as TPTB have their multiple homes around the world in which they can ride out the worst... the rest of us will rebuild from scratch.
The big question in my mind is the nature of the monetary system that will inevitably replace the fiat FRNs, assuming some common/federal system is necessary or even possible after TSHTF.
++
Except for China. Still... it won't be so bad.
Austerity is a scare word used by you statist types. The real term is 'living within your means'.
But ozzy, if you want to pay my mortgage, I promise to buy an iPhone.
How about this instead.
#462671
and
But you say live within your means. I do but you should give that advice to the unemployed with no means of even finding a place to take a peaceful shit.
Austerity = 'living within your means' yea well tell it to 40% of americans living on nothing but food stamps and unemployment bennies. BTW in the coming months those numbers will be FAR higher, then throw in the millions of americans who live on nothing but total welfare, and youve got 200 million americans 'means' are living off the good graces of federal redistribution!
The endebted, unemployed and under-employed are suffering the CONSEQUENCES of past policy and poor decisions. Gov't./fiscal austerity certainly doesn't help them at this point, but neither will "stimulus" - as has been proven in spades.
In summary, unemployment & dependence cannot be 'fixed' in the short-term, period. Impossible. Too many structural forces have accumulated over past decades... it's just that simple. Thus, high unemployment is not and CANNOT be a viable excuse to avoid necessary/inevitable austerity.
fiscal restraint = overdue realism.
further stimulus = buying votes.
Nope... not quite. Austerity means living BELOW one's means to correct for excesses made in the past. Unless you would prefer the process to go into perpetual motion.
Define "depreciating assets"
If you're pissed because you are holding tons of stock.. well that's your problem.
Most here are either in cash or gold and few in land.
None of which will depreciate if austerity is enacted.
You however with thousands of AAPL at $250 or GOOG at $500 WILL TAKE A HAIRCUT.
Sucks to be you.
Everything dollar denominated.
You wish. Guy's like you always claim to be on the right side of EVERY trade.
eg.
Gold up. I dumped those Benny's after the Fed put the printing press in hyper-drive. Cash is trash etc. Dollar down, Gold Bitchez.
Now you talk about land, then take your haircut please unless of course you bought at the bottom, wherever that is.
Disclaimer:
I hold no stock except for $1000 in SYMX (just for shits)
I've mentioned this before. I took a 50% loan out from my 401K in November 2007 with interest paid back to myself over 6 years. Rest went into a cash equivalent fund and $5000 I use in a self directed fund to short financials (biggest loser for me so far).
I don't want to call you a liar but it would suck to live with yourself if you were.
If growth is slow, how does the debt overhang get paid off? How do the munis balance their budgets? How does the debt wave(s) get rolled over? How does the government reduce expenses and raise taxes without further reducing 'growth'? Where does this growth even come from? What happens to CRE and extend and pretend? The shadow inventory of homes get sold to whom? How many more strategic defaulters as people just send in the keys seeing the 20 years of paying on negative equity?
Slow growth in an over-leveraged economy is not possible, IMHO. You either grow/inflate out of it, or have a nice deflationary cleansing. I believe the latter.
If growth is slow, how does the debt overhang get paid off?
It doesn't, or at least most of it doesn't.
There is going to be a cascade of "sovereign" defaults within the next two years, the likes of which the world has never seen.
These defaults will be the catalyst for a "restructuring" of all outstanding debts, public and private.
The haircuts will be huge and they will be universal.
"The haircuts will be huge and they will be universal"
Everyone is going to be looking like they were just pulled out of the Matrix....
+1000 this thread has some serious momentum goin now. Max out your charge cards, HELOC (if you have one) and load up on physical silver, gold, weapons, freeze dried food, gorp, and an iPad.
@Raymond
Defaults and restructuring will be hugely deflationary. Taking on new debt would be really stupid. Most people and businesses understand this at a subliminal level, and that is why there is no demand for credit beyond what is needed to fund government payrolls and transfer programs.
roger - if taking on new debt is stupid what explains the over $1T in national debt added just this year?
Because they know it will not have to be re-paid in full.
Twenty cents on-the-dollar, tops.
And in the meantime, they pay less than 3% (WAR).
Oh, and one more thing-
Gold, bitchezzzzz.
traderjoe, slow growth is a best-case scenario. i'm more interested in the answers to your great posed questions in the more realistic -GDP Q410-Q111 timeframe. and if this -growth does happen - Will this start a cascading effect of defaults, layoffs, god-knows-what!?!?!
It's easier to work with the Federal Reserve Banks than against them. Equities aren't the problem, house prices (rents), food and utilities, are.
No QE 2 No QE 2!
Burn the Fed!!! Burn the Fed!!!!
i love it when the doellar falls with stocks....
Weird huh? Major capitulation going on across all sectors! Does Bernanke ever sweat?
And on another topic, even though gold was man handled into a descending/flat channel (although it is about to break that and move back into an upward one), silver stayed in its upward trend.
Silver, snitches!
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
love it... the dollar index= euro... traders tired of shorting the euro... the more bad news is over here in doellar land...
10yr futures volume says it all...
OK, I have to ask it. You and Lennon Hendrix.
doellar?
What is this word you say?
The word dollar stems from the word larr, which like lira means weight...as in pound.
The doe, as in a female representation of reality, such as a dear, or Isis, the diety. Interestingly the word play is so intact that doll is even there. Genuises! (hint sarcasm)
Sort of like $$=Isis.
Also there is an allusion to the cadice/snake/DNA and the pillars of "The Temple"; this of "Solomon" or the Fed? Ask Pelosi.
The doelarr itself (the currentsea) is a representation of the weight of the world in actuality (though not in my book). If you want me to be absolutely literal, think of it as the female menstrual cycle/fertility.
The doelarr represents the Alchemist's gold, a rey of light to illuminate, or as I like to think, "trick", the world. And just as fast as a rey of light, it is here, and then it is not.
The FIAT doelarr only has lasted some 40 years. As far as a medium of exchange, I think puka shells had a longer shelf life.
Here, an ode to such:
"Zephyr in the sky at night I wonder
Do my tears of mourning sink beneath the sun
She's got herself a universe gone quickly
For the call of thunder threatens everyone
Faster than the speeding light she's flying
Trying to remember where it all began
She's got herself a little piece of heaven
Waiting for the time when Earth shall be as one"
http://www.whale.to/b/Madonna_illuminati_pyramid.jpg
Madonna - Ray Of Light:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3ov9USxVxY
Oh.
I knew that.
:-)
Thank you for the detailed and enjoyable explanation. I won't ask about currentsea yet; will think about it some first and see if I can work it out myself this time.
You are welcome.
It is rather simple, 'tis true.
Same for currentsea.
It's funny, but I have a completely low-brow non-academic image when I see 'doelarr', which is much less poetic than your description.
I see a 'doe-eyed Larry Summers'.
(Also, check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaler)
Ahaha, perfect visual! And this for a man named "Summers", like Morgan!!
And yes, after the thaler; anglo-saxon afterall.
Slowly change the story to give a hint at the truth. Hat in hand to Congress next.
Hey look, the markets have actually learned how to read if news is good or bad now. Looks like sanity may return.
no... u mean computers do...it is the Itimber app
AUDJPY CADJPY BITCHES
and shazamm, just like that! the primary dealers now have a huge gain on their auction bonds....what a coincidence, always amazes me
The Fed doesn't ask permission for QE anymore and it doesn't say when it is doing it. Congress does not need to approve the crazy stuff the Fed does to save the banking system. They gave them a blanket go ahead. We are in QE 5 already.
exactly right. in fact, every uptick in stocks is back-door QE form the criminal bankster scum
Well, somebody has to keep all of the world's bond auctions from failing.
Quite honestly they are stumped. They are keeping a good game face for obvious reasons.
Cut what? Layoff more people?
It's called "between a rock and a hard place."
The US is going to take a pounding economically and it will spillover in unpredictable ways thereafter. When are they going to realize that making money on money is unsustainable. It's not even a zero sum game anymore. It's a negative sum game.
Gee, how does this Fed outlook impact pension plan expected performance models??? LOL!
Never knew so many words would be needed to simply say: "we're screwed."
+1
who's screwed? not the rich. and the rest are used to it
bohica
Tyler, did you see rickards on cnbc?
http://bit.ly/9VVos1
Mugatu- 'Mandy...she's so HOT right now'!!
You speak of "MI5" Mandy?
They saved the best for last ;)
Oh look, it's PPT time... I'm doing a reverse Cramer, I'm calling todays close the highest we'll see in five years.
five years
I'm thinking more like, five-zero.
No big deal, they'll just stretch out unemployment benefits for six additional years.
They are doing a bang up job at the Fed.
Does jiddish Ben have a dominatrix fetisch?
DOW - 17.
Seriously demented fucking shit right there.
"you can't legislate job creation"--- shawn mesaros
in the consumer segment, it will contract along with credit demand for the next 8 years and those things people used to borrow money to buy will have a hard time inflating without the incremental credit to drive prices. this means an aggressive rotation within the economy to new businesses to replace the sub-segments (new shoes) that are being lost even as we speak.
the positives remain that jobs will slowly return perhaps middle of next year and as such, you typically see 1% annual decrease in the unemployment rate. that means that we will see "full employment" by around 2015. that 1% annual increase in labor adds materially to GDP as does the 1% annual gain from technological improvement. add to that an increase of 1% annually to the population, you're @ 3% and then you run along with maybe 3-4% inflation, you start looking @ 5-6% "nominal GDP growth" somewhere around 2013/4. between now and then it probably gets cheaper before it gets more expensive.
Freaking polly.-:)
I give it until the end of the next retest of 700 on the S&P.
a "careful review" of GDP growth in the USA during the great depression and also during WW2 *and* the 1970's will show you three entirely different economies and the GDP growth was unbelievably robust in NOMINAL terms. that doesn't mean that the market goes up, it means that inflaiton plus productivity drive GDP in nominal-USD-based terms. consider that in germany during WW2 the GDP of germany was cut in HALF relative to the USA and after being bombed into complete submission, german GDP rocketed STRAIGHT BACK to where it was in "nationalistic" hitler-germany--- an entirely new economy. How long did that take? (jeopardy music playing....) 6 years. what we're witnessing is nowhere close, and we actually have some semblance of global cooperation in getting it fixed. that doesn't mean markets will rise, it means that GDP will rise, un USD-nominal terms, not "real growth" but "nominal growth"---- shawn mesaros
"consider that in germany during WW2 the GDP of germany was cut in HALF relative to the USA and after being bombed into complete submission, german GDP rocketed STRAIGHT BACK to where it was in "nationalistic" hitler-germany---"
You've got to be freakin' kinding...if you have a knowledge at all of post-war German (note the capitalization, asswipe) reconstruction...i better stop typing now...
Apples to Oranges.
The "new new GDP" will do nothing to expand simply because of one obvious fact:
Without housing, there is no real consumption, no expansion, no credit growth, no employment improvement, zero, zip, nada.
We are going to head for the worst possible solution imaginable with the cost of living increasing and the value of assets (equities, real estate, collectibles) declining because the centralized managed economic system we are embarking on will insure that growth is "redistributed" rather than allowed to expand at its normal exponential rate and filter throughout the economy.
America is about to find out what any Russian who endured the 1980's already knows: Centralize Planning sucks.
Pyatiletka Version 1.0 is almost finished.
Once FinReg and Cap and Trade are passed, capitalism becomes a distant memory.
And they will pass, mark my words.
The bottom line is that Fed financial “reform” gave the Oligarchs everything they wanted. The complaints coming from the Zuckermans are just fraudulent posturing to combat and obfuscate tremendous criticism and a public up-in-arms about what’s happening to America's economy. The perpetrators are just trying to say: Hey, it wasn’t us. What incredible liars!
Here’s how Robert Scheer addresses it today on truthdig:
There’s Just No Pleasing Some Robber Barons
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/theres_just_no_pleasing_some_robber_barons_20100714/The flight from reason that now marks American public discourse came home for me last Friday when I found myself on public radio debating whether Barack Obama is anti-business. The “news hook” for KCRW’s “Left, Right & Center” show, which I have co-hosted for 15 years, was an absurd spate of charges from Obama’s former big-business allies that he had become their enemy. If only it were so.
One of those who has been complaining is billionaire publisher Mort Zuckerman, who now finds in a White House he once supported “hostility” to the business culture he credits with the country’s greatness. I assume he is not talking about the belated efforts to hold BP accountable for the cost of the oil spill that our pro-drilling president once thought not possible.
And then there was Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of General Electric and once friendly to Obama but now alarmed by new regulations. He was one of the many CEOs cited by Fareed Zakaria in The Washington Post as evidence of “Obama’s CEO problem.” General Electric is a company that got into deep trouble when it stopped worrying about making better light bulbs and came to devote much of its business through GE capital to fancy financial products. With GE having been saved by the taxpayers, one wonders what the conglomerate has to complain about. Or Wall Street donors now stiffing the Democrats and claiming Obama is hostile to them.
All this comes at the very time that Wall Street lobbyists stand poised to win a sweeping victory preventing a reversal of the radical deregulation that made the banking debacle possible. …
Game over, Wall Street won big-time, and the Bush-Obama policy has made the financiers whole while largely ignoring the deep plight of the true victims of the economic collapse, the unemployed and the foreclosed. The argument that Obama is anti-business is nothing more than the old propaganda trick that the best defense is a good offense, so blame the victims for your crimes. … there's more....
...just fraudulent posturing to combat and obfuscate tremendous criticism and a public up-in-arms about what’s happening to America's economy. The perpetrators are just trying to say: Hey, it wasn’t us.
And the church said, Amen.
They've twigged that if they call it 'Reform', then the 'base' will think they won.
'The robber barons got what they wanted'...well to me its all killing the golden goose. What their future from here? Proceeds from forced labor camps? What did they gain...piles of fiat currency?
Squeeze as hard as they like, hit the dead golden goose with sledge hammers, the golden egg production is gone.
Peak oil and solar flares forced their hand.
Final consolidation.
Now to audit Fort Knox.......
Obama is anti-business, more precisely he opposes the kinds of businesses that don't funnel campaign cash his way. The federal government is slowly and surely suffocating small businesses and making the idiotic claim that government hires and union flacks will pick up the slack in the economy.
Exactly. And Obama is not pro-big-business either. He’s pro-banker. IOW, if it’s not going to help the investment bankers he’s not going to support it. He’s pro-monopoly, because the bankers create the monopolies—to eliminate competition. John D. Rockefeller made it a point that his worst enemy was competition. One of the founders of the Fed represented John D. at the meeting on Jekyll Island—Nelson W. Aldrich, Republican “whip” in the Senate.
“John D. Rockefeller made his initial fortune in oil but soon gravitated into banking and finance. His entry into the field was not welcomed by Morgan (Morgan also was the Rothschild financial agent), and they became fierce competitors. Eventually, they decided to minimize their competition by entering into joint ventures. In the end, they worked together to create a national banking cartel called the Federal Reserve System.” – G. Edward Griffin
So this is a Jobless, Growthless recovery - like the one we had in 1939? But as long as Liesman says its bullish then all must be good. No issues... BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!
SOME OF YOU GET IT...THIS WAS ALL ABOUT GOOD COP BAD COP
ELITE HAS GOTTEN ALL THEIR MONEY BACK THE LAST 15 MONTHS AND THEN SOME. THEY WILL NOW LIQUIDATE ON PEOPLE...AND AUSTERITY IN THE USA IS COMING AS ITS NEEDED TO PROTECT THEIR WEALTH IN US DOLLARS, ETC
MANY ON THE BOARDS WILL SCREAM THE WHOLE TIME FOR QE2 AS THEY LOSE THEIR NET WORTH AGAIN
Eerily true
Yet, J.P. Morgan desk managed to pump S&P above 1090.00. Great job, suckers ! :=((
Hoenig = the crazy uncle in the basement shouting obsenities.
...and the family just doesn't like to talk about him.
The most patriotic act available is to set your house, as well as 13 of your neighbor's homes, ablaze thus reducing the oversupply of home inventory while revitalizing the construction, mortgage and real estate sectors. Hopefully this gesture will also reduce population by 1/2 to sustainable levels. Next these "patriots" must pelt Washington, D.C. with a tsunami of faulty iphones and detritus from the Gulf Oil Spill rendering it uninhabitable for a thousand years. Simultaneously living in a cave, drinking pond water and wearing a tin foil yarmulke in solidarity for the Israeli plight is also helpful. I just hope LeBron changes his darn mind.
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