Food Price Shock Cometh

Tyler Durden's picture

Today, some Fed member, arguably of a Dovish persuasion, made headlines by saying that inflation was tame in all but food and energy. We are confident he is right. So for all those readers who are lucky enough to not have to eat, fill up with gas, or heat their homes, the following video from the NIA on suddenly surging prices in virtually every vertical, is probably irrelevant. All others may be advised to watch it...

And just to make sure the point of the coming price crunch is not lost, the FT has just come out with an article titled, not too subtly,  "World moves closer to food price shock"

The world has moved a step closer to a food price shock after the US government surprised traders by cutting stock forecasts for key crops, sending corn and soyabean prices to their highest level in 30 months.

The price jump comes after the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned last week that the world could see repetition of the 2008 food crisis if prices rose further. The trend is becoming a major concern in developing countries.

While officials are drawing comfort from stable rice prices, key for feeding Asia, they warn that a sustained period of high prices, especially in grains such as wheat, would hit poorer countries. Food price hikes have already led to riots in Algeria and Mozambique.

“Stocks of corn and soyabean are at incredibly tight levels ... and the markets are surging to incredibly strong prices,” Chad Hart, agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said.

Dan Basse, president of AgResource, a Chicago-based forecaster, added: “There’s just no room for error any more. With any kind of weather problem in the upcoming growing season we will make new all-time highs in corn and soy, and to a lesser degree wheat futures.”

Agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest revision to US and global stocks means there is no further room for weather problems. The crops in Argentina and Brazil, to be harvested soon, look fragile due to dryness.

Traders are particularly concerned about the cost of vegetable oil, key for developing countries such as China where an emerging middle class is buying more frying oil. The US Department of Agriculture said the ratio of global stocks-to-demand would fall later this year to “levels unseen since the mid-1970s, reflecting an accelerated pace of vegetable oil” consumption for food and fuel.

And yes, as we have been predicting for months, kiss those record "earnings" goodbye:

The shares of Deere & Co, the world’s largest manufacturer of tractors and combines, surged 2.3 per cent, approaching an all-time high. But food companies such as Nestlé fell as analysts said they would struggle to pass rising wholesale costs to consumers.

Struggle yes, and eventually have no choice but to do so. In the meantime, readers better familiaries themselves with the definition of stagflation, also known as 10% unemployment (12% when factoring in the collapse in the labor force), and $4 gas. And while at it, they may also look up the term "rice bubble" - in 3-6 months it will be all the world will be talking about.

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knukles's picture

If all the fiats were printed on rice paper....

velobabe's picture

"rice bubble", bitchez†

Fish Gone Bad's picture

It is not like no one saw this coming, right?  Everyone knows the banks are insolvent, everyone knows that the only THINGS that are worth money are THINGS. 

KickIce's picture

Puts the MIB special effects to shame.

velobabe's picture

god it's embass ass ing. i can't believe, skin can be stretch ed out, so much† maybe just american white skin, designed by wal Mart ians.

VegasBD's picture

Dollars printed on rice paper?

I'd call that a double bubble!

At least the currency would have some value that way tho...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"America's Original Dubble Bubble" says it all.

Trifecta Man's picture

Yeah, then you could eat it!

Frankie Carbone's picture

...I'd make one hell of a tasty thousand dollar stir-fry and put a brand new spin on the phrase "put your money where your mouth is". 

Popo's picture

...putting America's 'lack of money' where their (collective) mouth is, just might be the cure to the raging obesity problem.

Seriously, on a recent trip back to the ol' USA I was completely freaked out be the sheer numbers of fat people.   Even the people that weren't considered fat, were pretty overweight.   

Let's hope poverty and high-food prices have at least one positive side effect...



Remain Call - All is Well's picture

Agreed but careful what you wish for...

Watch some old movies. What always strikes me is how everyone is so thin.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

Actually poverty (and biology) sends people to McDonald's.  So you end up with, literally, fat & starving people.  What a wonderful twist of biology and evolution we're creating.

Gully Foyle's picture

Unlike the majority of posters here this one man had the courage of his convictions. This man fought the law and the law won, but at least he fought.

I give you the symbol of Freedom


Bow your heads and weep for another hero sacrificed.

On October 12, 2006, Wesley Snipes, Eddie Ray Kahn, and Douglas P. Rosile were charged with one count of conspiring to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C. § 371 and one count of knowingly making or aiding and abetting the making of a false and fraudulent claim for payment against the United States, under 18 U.S.C. § 287 and 18 U.S.C. § 2. Snipes was also charged with six counts of willfully failing to file Federal income tax returns by their filing dates under 26 U.S.C. § 7203.[13] The conspiracy charge against Snipes included allegations that he filed a false amended return including a false tax refund claim of over US$4 million for the year 1996 and a false amended return including a false tax refund claim of over US$7.3 million for the year 1997. The government alleged that Snipes attempted to obtain fraudulent tax refunds using a tax protester theory called the "861 argument" (essentially, an argument that the domestic income of U.S. citizens and residents is not taxable). The indictment said Snipes used accountants who already had a history of filing false returns to obtain refund payments for their clients.[14] The government also charged that Snipes sent three worthless, fictitious "bills of exchange" to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in the amounts of $1,000,000 (on November 30, 2000), $12,000,000 (January 18, 2001), and $1,000,000 (September 10, 2002), with each accompanied by an IRS tax payment voucher coupon.[15]

Snipes was a client with American Rights Litigators, which Kahn operated. As a client, Snipes gave a percentage of his tax refunds to Kahn's organization.[16]The government also charged that Snipes failed to file tax returns for the years 1999 through 2004.

In a December 4, 2006 letter from Snipes in response to his indictment, he declared himself "a non-resident alien" of the United States (in reality Snipes is a US born citizen).[17] Snipes said he was being made an example of and unfairly targeted by prosecutors because of his fame in connection with the federal tax fraud investigation. He attempted unsuccessfully to get the trial moved away from Ocala, Florida on the ground that racist attitudes in that town would prejudice his chance for a fair trial.[18] Snipes faced the possibility of up to sixteen years in prison and substantial fines if convicted on all the charges.[19] The trial began on January 14, 2008, in Ocala, Florida,[20] with opening statements beginning on January 16, 2008.[21]

Mug shot of Snipes taken in April 2008.

On February 1, 2008, Snipes was acquitted on the felony count of conspiracy to defraud the government and on the felony count of filing a false claim with the government. He was, however, found guilty on three misdemeanor counts of failing to file Federal income tax returns (and acquitted on three other "failure to file" charges). His co-defendants, Douglas P. Rosile and Eddie Ray Kahn, were convicted on the conspiracy and false claim charges in connection with the income tax refund claims filed for Snipes.[22][23]

On April 24, 2008, Snipes was sentenced to three years in prison for willful failure to file federal income tax returns under 26 U.S.C. § 7203.[24][25][26] While defense lawyers urged leniency, prosecutors argued that Snipes should be made an example of because of his fame.[5] Kahn was sentenced to ten years in prison, and Rosile was sentenced to four and half years in prison.[27] Until December 9, 2010, Snipes remained free on bail to work, even traveling internationally, while he appealed his conviction.[28][29] In April 2009, the Los Angeles Wave reported that Snipes has refused to answer certain questions in connection with a talent agency lawsuit in which the agency claims that Snipes owes over $1.4 million in commissions. Snipes is reported to have taken the position that his answers could incriminate him in a federal tax investigation. Lawyers for the talent agency stated that Snipes' lawyer advised the lawyers for the talent agency that "Snipes and his [ . . . ] companies are under an additional investigation by the Internal Revenue Service and Snipes would be asserting his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination and would not answer any questions at his deposition."[30] On May 22, 2008, the trial court ruled that Snipes could remain free while his appeal is being considered.[31]

On July 16, 2010, in a 35-page decision, the United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit affirmed Snipes' convictions.[32][33][34] At the conclusion of its decision, the Court of Appeals stated:

Although Snipes argues that there were mitigating factors that the judge did not specifically mention at sentencing, these facts -- his college education, his family, and his charitable activities -- do not compel the conclusion that the sentence crafted in accordance with the 18 U.S.C. [section] 3553(a) factors was substantively unreasonable. The district court acted well within its considerable discretion in sentencing Snipes to thirty-six months in prison.[34]

On November 19, 2010, the United States District Court in Ocala, Florida denied motions for permission to interview jurors and motions for a new trial which had been filed by attorneys for Snipes. The Court ordered that the judgment of commitment be enforced.[35] In the seventeen page Order, the Court also granted the prosecution's motion to revoke the bail for Snipes.[36]

[edit] Imprisonment

On December 9, 2010, Snipes reported to the Federal Correctional Institution McKean near Lewis Run, Pennsylvania.[37][38] In a television appearance on December 7, 2010, Snipes was asked by CNN's Larry King if he was nervous about going to prison and admitted his trepidation about doing time. "I think any man would be nervous," Snipes said. "Given the length of time that they are suggesting that I be away from my family, away from my profession, away from my ability to provide for my family and for those who have depended upon me to contribute to society ... I think anyone would be nervous about that."

The Federal Bureau of Prisons shows a projected release date for Wesley Snipes of July 19, 2013.[39]

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I love the USA. I get to hunt, fish, do what I want and everyone gets to live whatever lifestyle they want. Go to church ? Drive down to florida or vegas ? What other country can match all this ? The education is better than most and the hospitals also.

All of this has a cost Mr. Snipes, you have made millions pimping yourself in the USA ?? Pay the man.

tmosley's picture

You get to hunt (with a permit), fish (with a permit), do what you want (as long as it is within socially acceptable norms) and everyone gets to live whatever lifestyle they want (as long as they have strong lobbyists).  Drive down to Florida or Vegas (need license).  The education is better than most (but worse than all other industrialized nations) and the hospitals to (if they are still open).

All this oppression costs money.  This man has withheld hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of oppression.  He's the man.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

So what other countries can provide all the opportunities that the USA does ???? 

Can I start up a business in 2 weeks in any other country without " paying the local, man " a tax ???? Can I get clean water in India or China ???? How about a sewer to start with ????


Show me utopia on a map ? Brazil ? Greece ? Russia ? Sudan ? Peru ? How about Mexico ?

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Peru is indeed freer in SOME ways than the USA.  Still, I will stay here but with my ear to the ground.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

You know of timken, my buddy manufactures printing equipment/presses he says they are the best.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture


Of course I know Timken.  They are NOT interested in selling to us in Peru, they already have their distribution solidified.  Timken gets a little higher prices based upon past superiority, but that is even changing.

Our company there in Peru is mostly automotive anyway, much of Timken's best bearings are industrial, as your buddy has noted.

Timken did not treat us right.  So we go with who brung us to the dance..., Korea!  Bless their hearts for being open-minded to our small company there in Lima.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Do I get 5% if I get you in ? Lol'

I'm from Chicago, nutn's free- 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Platinum testing the all important $1800 resistance level.  And by its side the line up stands gold at $1385, silver at $29.50, DXY at 80, and oil at $93.  Push comes to shove and resistance breaks on any level and all these numbers will move higher.  The move, which will be lead by platinum moving from $1800-$2200, will also have silver going to $36, oil to $105, the dollar to DXY 66, and gold to $1500.   These numbers will come in line quickly, because platinum will move quickly.  These will be the numbers by the spring equinox.  Oh and after that it gets really interesting.

dogismyth's picture

There's nothing better.  So just shut ya trap.  It doesn't get any better than this, but it can get worse.  When it gets worse, remember the following words....where's my milk and cookies?

Jaw Knee Cash's picture

Do you really believe you don't pay the man to start a business here? You have obviously never done it. 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

He started bringing up tax, permit, bla - but the thing is you can't do half the stuff we can in most other countries. Can you start up a business in France or Peru or West Africa or China in under a week ??? I'm talking joe sixer .... Own a gun, vote, social security, live in any state you want. Golf, ect,ect,ect,ect,ect,ect,ect,ect ..... Its no contest. Go vacation come back no problems, try leaving China or Russia on a whim'

faustian bargain's picture

So, what you're saying is, the US is less bad.

This index has us at number 5, with all factors considered.

downrodeo's picture

If one is to contemplate the nature of the tax system, one can only conclude that it is a form of institutionalized violence. Whatever justification you can come up with for taxes does not mitigate this fact. It is outright abuse.

whirlybird's picture

Excuse my generalisation, but farking Americans like you are what a) give the good ones a bad name, and b) contributed to a good chunk of the worlds' problems today with your 'America is the best' arrogance.  If you REALLY think America is the greatest country in the world, you are barking up the wrong tree.  America might be the most militarily powerful nation in the world, but that doesn't make you cool.  If you use your powers not for good, but for being dicks, that makes you dicks.  Same rules apply in the schoolyard,  think about how all the other kids are afraid of the bully, but they still figure he's just an insecure dick.

Now if you want to rant about how fucking great 'murka is, go right ahead, but pick some reasons that you can back up, and quit picking on the weak third world kids as examples of what makes you so fucking awesome.


Seriously.  I can name 5 countries in the world right now where you can do everything you can in the good old US of A, including setting up a business in as little as 2 or 3 days - if that's you standard for what makes 'good' then you need to have agood long hard look at yourself.

My apologies to the reasonable Americans, but you probably also appreciate this guys is a fuckwit, so, carry on.

I'm going back to my fine American bourbon now.  That's something that you do OK at.


Confused's picture

Why did anyone junk this? Totally reasonable. 


There are certainly other places that are just as good. But if you've never been/lived, you wouldn't know. 

YHC-FTSE's picture

Perfect. Couldn't have expressed it better myself.

Hephasteus's picture

No reason to apologize to reasonable american's they've already told him the same shit over and over.

AnAnonymous's picture

Can you start up a business in France or Peru or West Africa or China in under a week ???


In China, a business can be started under a week.

You can relocate an entire facility from x to China in a matter of a week so it is operational.


What US citizens must understand when they leave the US and/or worse give up their nationality, is they move to  the side of non US citizens.  And therefore become part of the list of targets with no restrictions.

For example, the US is at starving some parts of the world. A US citizen staying in the US is living on the place where only reverberation will be felt. In the last resort, US citizens will be fed through stamps. It is a total difference if one relocates elsewhere as one becomes a target for US foreign policies.

Just like for a gang, the most secure place from the Ganglord's doings is the ganglord's turf itself. Elsewhere, well, anything is more likely to happen.

Gang, gang, gang... If you understand gangs, you understand the US.

Budd Fox's picture

New Zealand? Start up a business on-line in 48 hours?? Clean water? a breeze. A sewer? you kidding me??

WTF do you think the U.S. is, the navel of the planet?

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

What opportunities were available in this country when my relatives came here from Europe at the turn of the 19th/20th century, and what opportunities have been taken away by statist assholes like you since then?

snowball777's picture

The amazing fun of bi-decadal bank panics?

Horse travel (those damn statists and their airplane industry you know)?

The opportunity to use scrip to buy from the company store?

If it was in my power to use a time-machine to send you back to the unreconstructed south, I would, believe me.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Yeah, OK Private Snowball. Send me back to 1812, when all of those dumb ass southern banks were buying government bonds, and then refusing to convert their own paper to specie to the New England banks.


Read some real history:

TK69's picture

So, you think it is ok to take other people money because it makes you feel good?  Do you think government should be entitled to other peoples money in order to please your sences?  Do you think America was built on wealth redistribution? The point of the financial crises is that very few people can actually afford a life style, with such high taxes and burdensome regulations.  In fact, the US has not had real prosperity for a very long time, but the illusion of it.  Without loans, America as you described it, falls apart. And, the people who actually built the infrastructure and contributed to the foundation and real success of America did not have even 1% of thier money that is confiscated today. It has been one big progressive lie,

robobbob's picture


And there, on his tombstone
Carved so bold
The words are clear and strong
It says:
This one is for the eyes
For the eyes of the other dogs to come
It's for the eyes of the other dogs to come

snowball777's picture

$1.9M and they had 103 acres they could've liquidated to cover it. Now they get 9x9.

Heroes or dimwits, you make the call.

sbenard's picture

Ah, the price of rice! It's up, too!

gwar5's picture

Food crises on it's way, ensuing panic to proceed apace...

MacHoolahan's picture

Nope. Got a walk in cupboard full of baked beans though. Which covers both the needs Tyler mentions.

cclaeys's picture

weapons - check, check, check, check, check

ammo - check, check, check, check, check

know how to use them - check


let me know when you are ready to harvest!