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Former S.A.C. "Portfolio Manager" Ron Insana Is Back... And He Appears To Be Pissed
This one was just too hilarious to pass by without presenting. It was in fact hilarious enough that it could be presented a la carte without spoiling it by actually commenting on what the CNBC "contributor" had to say...Which means: open season for ZH readers. Take it away.
What the Doomsayers Don't Say to You, posted originally on HuffPo where Ronnie is baaaack.
Friday's report
on the nation's unemployment situation had a little for the bulls and a
little for the bears, when it comes to this nation's economic outlook
for 2011. While the unemployment rate plunged in December to 9.4 percent
from 9.8 percent, only half of the improvement came from Americans
finding new jobs. The other half of the improvement came from
discouraged workers exiting the labor force, which has the perverse
impact of reducing the unemployment rate.
(It's a quirk of the strange calculus that goes into divining the nation's unemployment statistics.)
Only 103,000 new jobs were added to payrolls last month, well below
market expectations and below the 150-200,000 jobs needed to keep up
with population growth and growth in the labor force.
Indeed, Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, in testimony before a
Senate committee, acknowledged that it could be four to five years
before the labor markets return to "normal."
"Normal," as measured in historic terms, implies a 5-6 percent
unemployment rate. There are some who suggest that our labor force never
will return to "normal." But that view is unnecessarily pessimistic and
belies the improvements being seen in the economy, each and every day.
By the way, a quick return to "normal" would imply that the economy
would add about 600,000 jobs a month for over a year, which it rarely,
if ever, has done. Absent such an immediate and stunning improvement in
job creation, there is virtually no way the unemployment rate could get
back to "normal" in less than a few years, under even the most
optimistic scenario.
That does not mean we can't, or won't, see meaningful improvement in
the labor market in the months, and years, to come, that will be felt by
all.
Many on Wall Street and many, many more on Main Street, were
understandably discouraged by the December report and the Fed chief's
comments, as one might expect, given the grudging improvement in the
jobs picture, even as enormous piles of cash build up on bank balance
sheets and in corporate coffers.
But this worry about the economy is beyond misplaced, in my view.
After a serious recession like the one we have just experienced, borne
of an economy gone wild, it is a miracle that we have recovered as much
lost ground as we have, compared to the alternative scenario many of us
were contemplating only two short years ago.
Yet, there remain countless doomsayers who suggest that another, even
more serious crisis, is just around the corner. Citing the possibility
of a renewed credit collapse in Europe, a series of municipal
bankruptcies here in the U.S., or another leg down in the housing
market, they say we are just days, weeks, or months away from that
dreaded "double-dip," or another downturn that will make the first phase
of the "Great Recession" feel like a walk in the park.
My good friends, economist, Nouriel Roubini; author and investor,
Nassim Taleb; hedge fund manager, Doug Kass; and banking analyst,
Meredith Whitney, all repeat a mantra that remains in vogue among the
gloom and doom jet-setters.
They claim that we are being falsely encouraged by recent economic
statistics that create an illusion of recovery that is either being
borrowed from future prosperity, or is the very temporary result of
"recession fatigue," a condition that I never before have encountered.
In short, and for a variety of under-discussed reasons, they are flat-out wrong.
Few of the naysayers have bothered to incorporate into their overly
pessimistic assumptions some truly miraculous developments that have
taken place since Ben Bernanke's "great intervention," which prevented
us from experiencing a catastrophic 1930s-style depression, or a
protracted, Japanese-style stagnation.
Unlike those prior periods, the U.S. economy already has recovered ALL of the lost output since the start of the Great Recession.
- Third-quarter GDP stood at a record 14.7 trillion, eclipsing the peak hit in the third quarter of 2008.
- Retail and food sales, which surged 5.5
percent over the holidays, now stand at1.12 trillion, according to the
Commerce Department -- just under the1.17 trillion peak hit in the 4th
quarter of 2007.
- Consumers have driven down indebtedness, and
added to their savings. The savings rate has jumped to 5.3 percent,
while household debt-service burdens have been cut by228 billion.
- Auto sales are running at a 12.5-million-unit
rate which, while below the 17-million-unit peak at the height of the
economic recovery, is still three million more vehicles being sold than
at the trough of the recession.
- Household net worth, after collapsing by a
staggering17.5 trillion from 2007-2009, has rebounded sharply in the
last several quarters... by nearly6 trillion, not a trivial sum. It
remains well below its historic highs, but has improved significantly
and likely will continue to improve over the next several years.
The statistics mentioned speak for themselves. In addition, market-based
indicators, from stock prices to interest rates and commodity prices
are, in tandem, forecasting improving future growth, not a return to
recession. These indicators, when flashing the same signals
simultaneously, rarely have delivered an errant forecast.
While many remain deeply concerned about the fragility of what might
be the start of a self-sustaining economic recovery, there is real
reason for optimism that, indeed, a true and lasting recovery is
underway.
As I return to blogging for The Huffington Post, I despair over a
political environment which has led us down a path that now goes beyond
partisan politics, as of this past weekend, to one of a clear and
present danger.
I also worry that far too many voices continue to prey on the
financial fears of a society that has seen more than its share of
problems and pain.
And, while I often have been described as a Cassandra, and rarely a
Pollyanna, for the first time in many years, I see reason to rejoice in
an economic recovery that, while uneven, appears to be gaining strength
and durability every day.
If only our political situation would improve as much as our economic
condition, I would hold even greater hope that happy days are, indeed,
here again.
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I want whatever he's having.
I listened to Insana once, that was enough.
Ron Insana is ass-deep in some 'begging for ObaMao love,' and why not?
After all, he's tied in with Steve Cohen, and who amongst the Hedge Fund crowd could possibly be against Obama, who has shown them as much or more love than any other President, ever, in history?
The article penned by Ron Assana reminds me of Warren Buffet's editorial in the New York Times, where Buffet brazenly thanked the taxpayers for bailing out his shitty ass picks of recent years, based on reasoning and philosophy that completely contradicted everything Buffet used to talk about and write about in earlier, sane (or non-corrupt) years.
The U.S. & U.K. are all about financial engineering, while South Korea, Germany, China and India pursue engineering of a much higher importance and utility, and the sucking up by American Administrations - no, make that the literal bending over for the financial sector, has put this country truly behind the 8 ball.
Keep letting the financial engineers control economic policy, and the debate on economics itself, and we'll fall further down the rabbit hole.
You gotta love the hardcore doomsters, they're right out of Monty Python, losing one limb after another but still proclaiming "it's just a flesh wound!"
Pure tripe. Ron has to work for others because he can't hack it on his own, I don't. L is for loser, loser. Hey Insana, keep sucking up harder maybe one of the fraud baron banksters will feel sorry for you and let you fetch them coffee and shine their shoes.
Insana back on the airwaves? Has the planet gone mad? Oh wait...
The biggest problem of the information revolution is that idiot savants like Ron, or should I just say idiots, can find data points, string them together and as long as the analysis concludes with the purchase of equities, all's well.
He may not have a book, or a trading desk, but he's got an agent.
Oh, what a world
Ron Insana is allowed to speak on the public networks again?
Top is in.
Do we have a Cramer signal confirmation?
Ya know what fuck it...throw his ass in there to run the POMO's, I just don't give a shit anymore.
Insana's back with a big B and now I'm missing Balloon boy
I only hope no one actually paid lil' Ron to write this hogwash.
Not only was he not paid, he managed to discredit pro bono ANALysts the world over.
Tyler -
Attach this photo of Ron to this article.
It is very fitting...Ron as head of S.A.C
http://tinyurl.com/47r93pl
I remember when Ron finally decided to lose the hair piece and, according people who at the time tracked such metrics, experienced a huge uptick in his credibility and trustworthiness index.
In any event, is it really any surprise that these types of people are ebullient on the economy? The finances of those deemed respectable enough -strike that- salable enough to be tasked with regurgitating the crony corporatist-government propaganda have never been more secure.
50 Cent > Insana
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/rapper-50-cent-nets-nearly-9-million-with-just-a-few-tweets/
http://m.nypost.com/p/news/business/cent_millions_y5r6uquXPHX43R2NCWX6MN
What a country....
Ron? Ron who?
Now I just can't wait until we say "Cramer? Cramer who?" (other than to make Tyler money on ZH).
CNBC's George Costanza
Remember... Costanza was fired from every job he held...
Much Like The Inane Insana
Providing laughs and festivus for the rest of us...
Good Lord, I think he's completely ignored the fact that this supposedly "recovery" is built on nothing but sand...funded almost entirely by the government.
How much of the 'food sales' increase was due to rising prices?
How much did Uncle Sugar spend to get that (questionable) GDP figure?
How much of the 'reduced indebtedness' is due to non-payment of mortgage or simply due to credit card companies writing off debt?
He's just spewing superficial rose colored kool aid tripe.
typical stupid 'insane' way of thinking
#the U.S. economy already has recovered ALL of the lost output
firstofall: nobody knows how much is GDP/SALES/household worthnet / ETc
all those figures are FROM ECO-MODEls.. ITS ALL GUESSES.. and worst of it
those gueses are made/published by people w/ v.v.v certain agenda..
#2 you sucker wanna talk about RECOVERY..lets talk abvout recovery..
lets talk about RECOVERY OF FEDERAL REVENUES..they must be real.. they can confirmed/ trusted as its real money..
SO DESPITE OF 'BEA' SAYING CORp PROFITS ARE ALL TIME HI, corp taxes paid still 50 % below peak in 2008... WHY FUCK IS DIFEERENCE ? I havent heard
about radical reduced corp tax rate, actually its amongst highest in USA..
what about federal income tax? its still 20% below peak.. WHY ???????
ITS RECOVERED ACCORRDING YOUR Bs ANALYSIS..
#3 if everything hanky panky why US FEDERAL GOV prints 1$ for each 1$ in revenue.. why??????? why FEDS yet not even getting slower of 'easing' (aka printing money) ????/// why???????
ALL THIS IS BULLISHIT.. you stupid asshole who knows nothing... just paid corp whore .. but dont worry chicken coming home to roust and pretty soon..
alx
+1
Agreed, Alex.
State tax revenues from all sources are way down, also, which is just one of hundreds of data points that Insane-a conveniently fails to mention, as it fails to support his bullshit.
TruthinSunshine,
"State tax revenues from all sources are way down"
Not true.
I live in Florida. Florida, if you will recall, is one of the places most affected by the housing downturn. Our house lost 40% of its "value" in the past three years. My property insurance rose by 10% in 2010.
Maybe it's inflation adjusted.
BT,
Right. I have heard the same thing from many, including brokers down in Miami that I have spoken to (HOA fees are skyrocketing due to so many dark units, but fixed costs, while property insurance has either doubled or is unavailable).
I was speaking in terms of sales tax revenue and income tax revenue, both of which are flagging badly.
But you're correct; just like in Illinois yesterday (66% raise in state income tax), states are raping everyone on property taxes and other carrying costs on real property are increasing, also.
This ends badly.
Get ready to hold on...here comes the imported inflation
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/12/business/global/12inflate.html?ref=business
...
BEIJING — When garment buyers from New York show up next month at China’s annual trade shows to bargain over next autumn’s fashions, many will face sticker shock. “They’re going to go home with 35 percent less product than for the same dollars as last year,” particularly for fur coats and cotton sportswear, said Bennett Model, chief executive of Cassin, a Manhattan-based line of designer clothing. “The consumer will definitely see the price rise.”
...
One thing I don't get from the article is where they say
"imports from China are equal to little more than 2 percent of the overall American economy. "
That seems awfully low when what 70% of the economy is consumption?
Any stateside folk have an explanation for that number - I would be interested to hear it.
The fact hes on cnbc is all you need to know.
He forgot to mention the cost of keeping the economy flat at best...
The countless trillions in printed money,and the government backing 90% of the residential RE,not to mention the Commercial RE issues having yet to come to play.
Municipalities and states bankrupt already.Legislation even being put forth to allow states bankruptcy protection...This guy wouldnt be on cnbc if he had something different to say.
This constant denial of reality is a joke.They also kept telling you there were no problems and no recession.
My,werent they wrong.
Isn't Ron the guy that gets spanked By Rick all the time.
Ron representens the thinking for a vast majority of people in world. Just ignorant, care-free sheeple that wish to watch, instead of think, during an episode of Weeds or some other shit like that.
I don't think people deserved to be misinformed by this cunt but then again when you make the minimum effort to know what's going on you bring it on yourself.
Thanks Ron for reminding us how retarded the masses are and how we will be forced to scrape together an opposition to big government with a bunch of useful idiots.
Ron Insana! Wasn't he the resident comedian for CNBC? I had almost forgotten about him! His track record was certainly laughable! He had me in stitches!
I can't believe ANYONE takes him seriously, but what do you expect from the Huffpo? They aren't a NEWS organization. Their business is agitprop for tyranny!
In the 1930s, the Fed engineered interest rates to (then) all-time lows. It furnished similar advice to the Japanese in the 1990s. It is pursuing the same destructive policy here in the US today. How many examples does it take before people realize it's not the price of credit that matters in times like these, but the quality and volume of it that does. The Fed saved "us" from nothing. It cannot save us. It can only delay and thereby enlarge the ensuing catstrophe.
This is probably why I cant recall any episode of anyone calling RI "Cassandra." This totally conventional, bought-and-paid-for shill couldn't see through a plate glass window.
There are so many other things wrong w/his "discourse;" I've only highlighted 2 of the more obvious errors.
Huffpo hired him on to fulfill their employment diversity mandate: they needed a moron.
I like the term "recession fatigue." I'm seeing it at our shop and it's like "hey it can't suck this bad forever, right?" I think to myself, well, maybe not forever, but the Great Depression took about 11 years to clear, and that's about right for the Great Recession.
Besides, it's pretty evident that "Insana" is some kind of reference to insanity.
Imagine if you invested in his hedge fund.....
cut to a scene in a dimly lit bathroom, a man has just slit his wrists as he sits in a bathtub. His lasts words are "fuck you Ronnie you lying cunt".
Insana is bound to be right one of these times, if he just keeps guessing.
Whereas anybody else would be forced out of business, he'll get repeated media exposure as a member of "The Chosen"s team, kind of like Eliot Spitzer.
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN.
Roffleskeetz >.<
So this Ron fellow is telling us that after huge amunts of free money being spread around, things are still very bad, but not as bad as they otherwise might have been?
That's kind of like saying that the famine which is killing us has been held back for a few weeks by us eating our in-laws.
True enough, but now that we've eaten them, who do we eat next?
amazing what the numbers say (e.g., return to $14.7 trillion GDP level) when you completely ignore the effects of inflation.