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Foundation for the Study of Cycles: Gold to $2,000 By Late 2011, While Dollar and Stocks will Sink
I'm agnostic about different cycle systems, but - for what it's worth - the Foundation for the Study of Cycles is predicting:
- Gold will head north of $2000 ounce by the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2011
- This will happen in middle of a sinking stock market and economy
- Other PMs will do well, but not as well as gold
- A
major new dollar decline will start in the 3rd quarter of 2010, and end
in early 2012 (the dollar's value against gold will plummet)
- A
convergence of cycles will make 2012 a total train wreck. For example,
the 500 geopolitical cycle will shift, with power and wealth heading
from West to East. Other cycles will bottom during the period from late
2011 to late 2012, so things will get really ugly. The 4th quarter in
2012 will be a horrible time for America
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MBATES has a point folks, I didn't think gold was a bubble till my neighbor came over for a beer last night and said he was starting a gold investment club. That guy lost his load in tech wreck.
He is the perfect shorting indicator.
Methinks the jig is nearly up. Besides when Soros buys in you know the top is around the corner.
Hide gold and silver close at hand. But don't put guns in safes. They should be loaded and handy, is hard with kids but as one who was held to plink around by family, teach early and often. Keep a gun in the car, just lock the doors. Don't be scared of the law or criminals. Hell, we're all criminals in someones eyes. Think of senarios in advance to not get caught flatfooted. Freedom, nothing less.
jim sinclair (read resume )
All Fiat money is in a race to worth-less-ness. Only gold will protect your financial position. gold to reach 1650 then on to 5000
martin armstrong (read background of cycle studies )
gold will reach 5000
economics is a study in cycles ,,
many think in terms of linear,,
master bates 30 years old ,, (resume =hubris )
laies and Gentelman,
What we are talking about ??? Gold reaching $3000. Inflation nocking at our door ? We need job creation first,which will take a long time. And let us not forget that that only one-third of the stimulus pckage was spent. The rest is at the Fed.
Speaking of cycles, what the duty cycle on ZH?
75% ? perhaps a new web provider is in order.....
Gold doesn't go up; it doesn't go anywhere. Fiat currencies just yo-yo around gold.
Ten years ago it took, what, 40 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA. Not iit takes less than 10.
Everything revolves around gold. It is the sun of the financial system, like it or not.
Gold could go to $15,000 USD in 2011 but then we need to compare that with how much 'product' gold purchased at today's $1095. In other words, if a suit costs $1095 today could hyperinflation make a suit cost $15,000 in 2010?
Another way to look at it is how many ounces of gold does it take to buy a 'good' 1500 sq/ft home 20 years ago and how many ounces of gold does it take to buy the same 'good' 1500 sq/ft home today.
It is not the price (in any paper currency) of an ounce of gold, it is the purchasing power it holds.
they will make gold cheaper and who has gold will rush to sell before the price gets worse and they will buy your gold while you are rushing into and nobody will understand or even think of whats going around while they are buying.
and then sbd will notice that gold is making new tops everyday cause the big buyers will sell them this time while you are rushing for buying.
at the end; you will have gold and they will have money to operate and to buy new planes :)))
it doesn't matter for them, they will take your money by inflation, stocks, forex,gold etc... the only good thing you can do is, buying a land and growing your own vegetable, cow, producing your own energy and do not be in a need any kind of cash or sth...
I am appalled Greece governments were cooking their books for so long.
Here, in the USA, we would never do such things.
On a serious note, there is no way the USA will be able to pay off its debts. The FED, the President and the Congress know this. So, borrowing addition $5-20T does not make any difference.
Now about the US stock markets. Good companies (like Google, Cisco, GILD, etc.,) valuations cannot go down to nothing, otherwise, outsiders with money will just buy them out. Yes, DOW and S&Ps will go down a lot but some companies will do very well. Remember, it is not the Great depression time with the entire world was down. America will just follow USSR or Argentina pass-way.
My predictions: it will be the USSR way.
I don't understand what you are saying about the US. The rest of the world, and I mean everyone, is worse off than we are. Europe, Japan, China, Russia, they are all worse off than we are ... why do yo think the $ is still the reserve fiat of the world?
We will be the last man limping and by 2020, rise like the Phoenix.
The biggest problem in the future for the world is shrinking population and the US is relatively well positioned demographically ... since the best and the brightest always want to come to America, we will thrive.
P.S. After the Fall
Bear, I am assuming you are American. Funny but your country seems to get the worst rap from its own citizens (wrongly, I believe). You definitely have your work cut out for you but I think you are correct about the US being the healthiest horse in the glue factory. I live just north and would be happy to take all the disparaged greenbacks you folks are willing to exchange for our ridiculously overvalued currency.
Foundation for the Study of Cycles also predicts the invention of the square wheel which will significantly revolutionize Le Toure d'France.
"The 4th quarter in 2012 will be a horrible time for America."
It's not going to be too hot this year either.
Right, and things will hit rock bottom on December 21. Let's see, what could be the worst disaster to hit the country that day...Obama declares a national emergency and refuses to yield office after getting destroyed in the November election? ...Germans and Russians sign a non-aggression pact? ...Chinese conclude purchase of California?
I've got an ounce of gold that I could swap for California, but then I have to consider what I'm getting in exchange.
Until Nostradamus' 14th quattrain comes true and a COMET kills most of the Earth.
That will be the perfect time for gold 2000.
2k by the end of this year, maybe higher
Don't think so. unemployment remains high. Only thrird of stimulus was spent. No way!
Maybe (if I get) higher.
There, fixed it. :)
I'm new to ZH. Been seeing a lot of articles on gold, and comments both for and against. I'm thinking of cashing out part of my retirement to invest in something tangible, mainly because I think we're all hosed. The fed et al might be able to keep the market where it is now, but will it ever go higher? I'm thinking no, and in fact I think barring any expansion in production, it never will.
When I say cash out, I mean literally take the money out, pay the penalties and taxes, and move on. The way I see it, if I leave it alone, it will probably lose at least the amount I pay in taxes. Or worse, if I leave it alone and in the unlikely event it grows larger, when I do finally take it out to retire, higher taxes and inflation will consume any growth (and even eat at the principle) it may have made. Is this unsound thinking?
Supposing gold is a good investment. My questions are more practical. How do I spend gold if I need to do so, and how will a bartering partner/buyer know it isn't brass? Also, supposing my gold investment grows, the world turns out fine, and I want to realize my investment. What the hell do I cash it out into? Domestic paper? Foreign paper? Toilet paper? Ammunition?
And where do I store it - buy a safe off of c'list? Maybe a gun safe to hold all my treasures in one place? :D Safety deposit box (probably not the best idea)?
I don't have an opinion one way or another at this point about gold, but I'm not an impulse buyer, hence my questions.
For that matter, should I even do this anyway? Should I just move my $$ to something more stable, and if so, WTH is a better gamble at this point, and for how long will it last? I'd like to say I'm many years from retirement, but in fact since SS is already unfunded (raided), I'm not expecting big bro' to have even a crust of bread to give when I retire. Correction, if I retire.
Answers to Anon above:
How do I spend gold if I need to do so, and how will a bartering partner/buyer know it isn't brass?
You answered your own question. You barter with it. By the time barter is common you won't have to worry about the second part of your question. There will be a technological solution like cheap XRF or a cheap service or your bartering partner will just bite it like the shoeshine boy in the old movies.
What the hell do I cash it out into?
You don't. It's insurance. You don't buy more insurance than you need.
And where do I store it?
Hide it in your house in a crazy place where no one could possibly find it. I think camoflage is better than a safe but a hidden safe is good too. Tell someone you trust or keep a written record of where it is in your financial files.
Depends on how bad you think it will get. Few can beat the calorie deficit game without stocked shelves at local supermarkets - our infrastructure is based on everything always being available - what if people simply don't show up to work because of fear? Like law enforcement during the Katrina aftermath. No matter what your wealth-protection scheme you should include a one-year supply of storable food, per person(s) you want to keep alive.
It sounds clichéd to buy guns and ammo, but that's because they are standard and common sense in more chaotic locales. In most urban centers the belief is that the police will always be there to protect you. If mass upheaval occurs can you guarantee your safety? Have you considered that the police themselves might violate your natural right to freely travel and trade?
Seeing that we are headed for potential collapse your electronic dollars will of course be unavailable for withdrawal, and in physical form worthless in a short period of time. Dollars will be useful for acquiring last minute and absolutely necessary tangibles like gasoline, food, and ammo. But do you really want to be out there searching for those items with price gouging and angry crowds that have suddenly decided their survival is more important than human life?
Your silver and gold will be for the long-term (1 - 3 years, or longer) - without finding someone that can properly assay their value, or is willing to trade it for what you want, it is better to keep them buried in an 8" enclosed PVC pipe. At least the gold. Consider silver you checking account, and gold your savings (80/20 ratio, respectively). Necessities to stay warm, safe, and generally alive will be more important than inedible coins in the short-term.
If none of this makes you nod your head then do not go to survivalblog.com for more comprehensive information.
I don't believe in conspiracies, just evil humans who are largely nice by accident. :) That means preparation against danger and hunger. Already on my way. 100 years ago, this kind of stuff was considered normal. People stored food, firewood, etc and they weren't considered end-times nutjobs.
The police aren't there to protect us even now, so that's a given. :)
Thanks for the 80/20 ratio and the long-term strategy advice. That puts things in perspective for me. Didn't consider it that way; makes sense. I'm starting to see commodities as a survival store as well as for portfolio diversification.
You did allude to my one grievance with gold, which is you still have to have someone who wants it (you can't eat it). It doesn't matter how much it's worth on a chart if nobody wants to buy it or trade. In some sense, gold seems to be a fiat currency itself, in the sense that it represents only the value that we give it.
I guess if paper money is the fiat currency of governments, then gold is the fiat currency of the people.
Thanks for your thoughts. Much appreciated!
My pleasure. Although I should clarify, if not correct myself for not reviewing my own post:
80% of value in gold/20% in silver - although having a lot of silver isn't necessarily a bad thing (much more liquid than gold, at least for now), you just have to find a secure place to store it all - and it can get heavy. With 80% of the value of your in gold you can convert it down the road into either silver (transacting in gold will bring unwanted attention (even silver for that matter)) or big ticket items such as land, quality firearms, or as a wedding present for children - whatever you want, of course.
So I would always have 10 rounds of silver around. Since many people have no idea what the current value is anyway you might get a full tank of gas from some outpost gas station that is no longer taking dollars anyway.
Another note, I have read many times that not only is gold undervalued because of market manipulation, but that silver is far, far more undervalued when viewing historical ratios between the two metals. A silver heavy portfolio would do you well.
Not to go on and on, but personal skills will also be of high value - both for your own good and for others. For instance, two 1oz gold coins could be exchanged today for top quality firearm training at the Front Sight academy, with reasonable expenses covered. You can't really price personal security in gold if things get really ugly.
Good luck.
I am in exactly your situation, but have not yet been able to bring myself to pull the trigger on my IRA and eat the tax penalty. But in addition to gold and PMs, I am considering real estate (arable) and heavy equipment (tractor, machine shop tools, generator, etc.) I figure the value of the land will likely not drop to zero, and if the worst happens, it may support me and my family.
As I watch Greece implode, it appears that the first to go are supply lines, so I am also storing food and gasoline to manage the interruptions.
I have never been a conspiracy tin foil hat type, but I do not see how we are going to resolve our problems with anything less than a cataclysmic change in lifestyle.
Good luck to you. I would be interested in what you decide to do.
Nice to know there are others thinking this. Maybe if the rest of the country catches on, everyone can cash out their 401s and with the penalties and interest, the gubmint can balance the budget! :)
Yeah, the penalties are steep. I think it's around 25%, inclusive of initial penalty and income tax + accountant hassle. It's hard because I've always believed that saving for retirement is somewhat sacred, so this would be big step for me, too. That's why I may just cash out one or two accounts, and rearrange the rest.
I'm with you on the arable land. The problem I'm having is irrigation/water rights. That makes the land value go up dramatically. Water rights are legally complex and tricky, so consult your local ditch company where you are buying and take them to lunch. nothing worse than buying a lot of land then finding out you have to pay an annual premium to keep your water rights intact!!
I've been looking into dryland crops like wheat. Tractor won't do you much good without fuel, so you'll have to at least know how the old timers did it in the worst case. A good place to start is a local fair. Some more rural and western areas have "pioneer" celebrations, which is a good way to network into that group. Of course, since "we are all Amish now" you shouldn't have any trouble joining a local community to avoid that pesky healthcare mandate that is looming. :D
Most metalworking machines could be converted to bike or pedal power. You can even buy some really old ones that were made that way.
Tinfoil hat aside, the good thing about stockpiling is calamity or not, it's an investment in staying alive. You can always eat the storehouses if the gubmint grows a pair and starts looking out for the people instead of its own survival, and you decide you no longer need the excess.
"I have never been a conspiracy tin foil hat type": if you had have followed the logical stages of this event as pro-pounded by the TFH types, you would have cashed out years ago and have reaped the benefits of their crazy ideas. Your cavalier dismissal of their logical and well thought out predictions have left you scratching your butt. Procrastibation is the term mentioned here somewhere. Having a mind pull. History in human affairs is not created by chance.
oh my god your name!
Why is it necessary to be like this? I do not sense hostility in that poster, just newbieness to some ideas. :-)
My apologies to those offended. The label "tin foil hat conspiracist" is a lame attack line and brings out the worst in me.
Something more stable = commodities somebody actually needs.
Oil? Orange Juice? Soy Beans? Cattle?
LOL. I don't know...
worth well over 10 million USd i would have to buy a lotta cow! And then feed and house them? no thanks
How many bottles of juice and how to keep it refrigerated ?
Soybeans lol haha
Gold and silver offer most value in least space and needs no care. Cant rot, wont disintegrate
and is famous worlwide.
It's not like you keep the oil, juice, cattle at your house. You sell the rights to take delivery to somebody else later, and they take the delivery of the commodity.
Do you think all the oil speculators had warehouses full of oil? No, they just sold the rights to purchase oil to those that did, who then had warehouses full of oil. That's why it's futures contracts.
If I had your kind of money, I wouldn't even be worried about how to invest. I'd put the money in CDs, live off of the 300k a year, and smoke weed in the tropics all day.
MB (yeah I guess your handle might be considered a little puerile by some) but the points you are valiantly raising with respect to gold have merit. One of the things that bothers me is where was all the gold rabidity when the stuff was $700 , or even $900 an oz? Too much hyperbole and emotionalism for my liking right now and, even though I am generally agnostic on the sector I am shorting it.
Exactly. It's like how EVERYBODY was a fix and flipper in 2006. You don't hear people shouting from the rooftops at the BOTTOM. When it's the top of the market, everybody and their mom is in on it.
I think that the emotional attachments to gold and the hysteria are sure signs of a top. When I see gold advertisements everywhere I look, and my barber and Glenn Beck are bullish on it, the time for it to appreciate has passed.
Part of thing about markets is that they tend to do what people least expect. If everybody is calling for gold to go up 4 or 5 times, then it's probably not going to.
Thanks for saying that my ideas have merit, but I'm sure a lot of others wouldn't agree. They'd refute my arguments but "GOLD TO 17 kajillion, GOLD BITCHEZ" isn't really a refutation...
Anyway, that's my take on things. I see recovery, I see inflation being kept in check, and I see gold losing it's bubble hysteria over time.
I wish I would have bought oil when the market last tanked and gas was down to a buck and two bits a gallon.
I'm completely dumb about commodities trading. Anyone have any suggested reading?
<hide from NSA>
If it all goes THIAHB, maybe some of the other ZH'ers are onto something: invest in lead, and blue steel shaped like firearms :D
A collapse would cause food crises and the like, but revenge would still pay well, and having a stockpile of weapons might prove to be the best currency. We are all Compton, now.
</unhide from NSA>
I got my stockpile of weapons before Obama was even elected. I saw the whole "rumor hysteria" in advance that would follow his election.
I knew the gun lobby would put rumors that guns would be taken away, and so I bought all my pieces BEFORE that happened.
Also, I actually called the top on oil. I know that it's hard to believe, but it's in my myspace blog.
I see very similar circumstances to the top of the oil market and the top of the gold market.
Remember when oil was at 147? Everybody was talking about 200 and 300 dollar a barrel oil. I knew that the jig was up then.
Same with gold. Everybody is shooting loads in their pants thinking it's going to double or more. It's just irrational greed, and it's not going to happen.
I really don't know much about commodities trading either, but I do know that it has to do with the dollar, and the dollar is going back up for a while...
You came to the right site with your questions. Initial disclaimer: I hold gold and will buy more as income permits. By reading more here at ZH you will get all kinds of opinions. One general opinion that most would agree to is diversification into different asset classes.
Those of us who like gold suggest holding up to 5% - 10% (more in some cases) of your net assets in gold. I am working to get there, am well on my way. Even 1% or 2% in gold is better than none.
If you have a good safe or really nice & sneaky hideaway then I would buy physical gold only (and/or silver or other precious metals). Gold can be sold at almost any coin shop. US 1 toz Gold Eagles are fairly hard to counterfeit, and you can get them without paying too much (premium). 1 US Gold Eagle should weigh 33.9 grams I believe (it has 1 toz of gold as well as some copper to make it harder to scratch). Gold is heavy, brass or steel are much lighter. Even lead is notably lighter (and lead does not "hold a strike", that is, you cannot make a lead piece with the fine details on the coin).
Re cashing out your IRA or 401k, I cashed mine out in late 2008. I paid the taxes and penalties and am so happy I did it. That is a call you have to make, you might ask your financial adviser.
Some of the more dynamic posters here at ZH also recommend "lead and lead delivery systems". I am looking at that as well. Candidates include a 9mm and an AK-47 clone.
"Preppers" have an interesting hobby. If you like to read interesting fiction, try "One Second After", what happens to the US when we get EMP'ed.
Good luck!
Congrats on cashing out the 401k, I haven't had the balls to do that yet.
US gov't putting out a request for comments on annuitizing (confiscating)
our retirement accounts helps me decide though
Be careful buying the cheap safes available
from various big box stores. At least be aware that any of these safes
can be broken into, in about a minute, by professional thieves
with crowbars. So just be aware.
A "real" safe, one designed to hold PM's and other real valuables,
will set you back a minimum of 10 grand.
Watch the following on youtube to see retail store safe get broken into:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBhOjWHbD6M
Spend a lot of time researching on the web where to put your PM,
otherwise, you will just loose it to the pro's
Also remember that states are confiscating the contents of bank safety deposit boxes that are inactive for "too long"
lawsuits pending in Ca on confiscated safety deposit box contents
Well, that just made up my mind about safety deposit boxes.
Thanks for the tip on safes. Maybe the solution is to buy a safe only as a decoy, and keep your gold in a bag of chocolate gold coins :)
in the 1930's, when gold really was seized (actually citizens were commanded to turn it in -- few prosecutions though), gold miners did very well and captured the revaluation of gold from 22 to 35 by several multiples. you can hold miners in an ira in several ways, individual stocks, mutual funds, exchange traded index fund. good luck.
Buried my silver . Kept a hundred oz above ground in case its needed.
But what really rows my boat is the food thats stored in the garbage cans and shelves at home. Being prepared does give some comfort during times like these.
consider the following and be creative about where to install. http://www.stealthsafeco.com/Q_200K_RV_Wood_floor_safe.html
DCRB, thanks for your input. I don't even want to think about EMP. When the internet is down, I find myself opening the browser anyway out of habit! Of course, we wouldn't have all this pesky technology to hinder us anymore. Just man against nature.
I've never held gold in my hand, though I know the periodic chart means AU is massive. Probably makes the smaller denominations tougher to inspect. I'll consider the portfolio percentage. I own no gold right now. I'd be curious to hear more perspectives on what types of gold/silver are best. Bullion coins? Bars? Collector coins? What about assayer marks - any one better than another?
I've been thinking about my 401k for a while now. It hasn't gone up in value, and hasn't gone down for that matter. It's nice to know I'm not alone in the thought of cashing it out. I'd like to hear if anyone disagrees with this, as I'm sure there are some.
I saw some great AK's from a company called Atlantic Firearms. They even had an AK-style pistol that looked pretty sweet.
Thanks a bunch for your advice!
I guess you know, you can roll your 401k over into a traditional IRA, which is still tax advantaged, then you have control of it. Talk to Vanguard, they'll take care of it for you.
Later, you can then convert to a Roth IRA (by paying taxes), and all your future gains will be tax free. If you convert to a Roth in '10, you won't have to pay any taxes on the conversion till April 2011, and can spread them over two years. See the IRS site, or Vanguard.com.
As for PMs, Harry Schultz, one of the most venerable of finance newsletter writers, advised two years ago, to have AT LEAST 30% of portfolio in gold and PMs. I took his advice (and then some), and did NOT lose 50% of my life savings, as did my friends.
I now have more money than I did when DOW was 14000+........by a good margin.
gold bitchez
I would go with the US 1 oz Eagles (coins). Low premiums, great liquidity. Other gold coins (Maple Leafs, Krugerrands are also OK, but I hold the US stuff as the reporting rules are (for now anyway) a little laxer than for foreign gold.
I prefer Eagles vs. the nusmismatic (old $20 gold coins) because the ONLY thing I care about is the gold value, not the scarcity value of some dated coin.
Stick with "the oldest or biggest coin shop in town" at first, you will feel more at ease.
Buy silver Eagles too, as a poster below suggests, you can use that in the smaller transactions if TSHTF.
I would not buy bars (10 oz, kilo, etc.) unless you are REAL confident of your supplier. Though one of my dealers let me hold a kilo bar, it was small, heavy and ELECTRIC!
Weiss is using them to set up a new investment service. It reminds me of all the other useless services ( the advertisements ). It sounds good but I am suspicious and would like more info on their previous prediction claims.
I am totally agnostic about the Foundation. Here is everything I know about them:
Market Predictions from the Foundation for the Study of CyclesI don't know if they are geniuses or quacks.
One thing that doesn't make sense about the assessment is:
If the dollar is going to fall, how will stocks fall at the same time?
Dollar lower = inflation = more dollars chasing assets = more dollars chasing stock prices = higher stock prices.
You can't have a low dollar AND low stock prices if the root cause is inflation.
And don't get me started on the silly gold prediction...