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Foundation for the Study of Cycles: Gold to $2,000 By Late 2011, While Dollar and Stocks will Sink
I'm agnostic about different cycle systems, but - for what it's worth - the Foundation for the Study of Cycles is predicting:
- Gold will head north of $2000 ounce by the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2011
- This will happen in middle of a sinking stock market and economy
- Other PMs will do well, but not as well as gold
- A
major new dollar decline will start in the 3rd quarter of 2010, and end
in early 2012 (the dollar's value against gold will plummet)
- A
convergence of cycles will make 2012 a total train wreck. For example,
the 500 geopolitical cycle will shift, with power and wealth heading
from West to East. Other cycles will bottom during the period from late
2011 to late 2012, so things will get really ugly. The 4th quarter in
2012 will be a horrible time for America
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Your theory would have merit, if only everything rose in a simarly fashion during inflation. Stocks didn't inflate too greatly in the late 70's and early 80's, that's for sure.
I guess that your argument is pretty much right. I don't have that kind of perspective though sometimes, only recent events seem to be in my mind.
Early 80's = I was born! LOL. Still, I completely see what you mean.
In the 50s, I bought candy bars, which now sell for a dollar, for 5c. In the 60s, I sold carrots in a major grocery store for 5c a pound, and lots of times I could get chicken livers for free. A new Corvette cost $3,000. Fish of every sort were much more plentiful and cheap. Now we eat "telapia"; check out Dirty Jobs and see how telapia are raised. In the early 70s, I could buy 3 pounds of liver for a dollar, and you could buy a brand new starter home for $20,000. This all indicates more inflation than the government and Wall Street claim, and that means gold is worth more. When a planet full of people gets fed up with watching their savings disappear in dollars or in a manipulated stock market, or lost by pension fund managers who "invest" in Enron stock and Credit Default Scams, it makes sense to me that they will turn to gold.
Also, in the 1930s, lots of people would work for 5 dollars a week, and gold was 35 dollars an ounce. If those same people now need to make just 500 dollars a week to survive, then isn't gold worth 3,500 dollars an ounce?
We can argue the numbers but, to me, gold makes sense.
It's even worse then you say. After all with all our tech advances and increases in productivity prices should be LOWER then they were then but instead they are substantially higher. Inflation over the years has been so powerful so as to completely overwhelm all productivity and technical advances. Okay there have been some special cases like TVs, Cell Phones, and Computers, but most of us working folk don't buy a new iPhone or TV as often as we shop for groceries or fill up the gas tank.
Dude, you didn't have to mention you were born in the 80's... we all figured it out a long time ago.
Yeah, I guess not being old and not having a shriveled dick shows, huh?
Bates, in your opinion, what impact, would a 90% decline in oil production, over the next 10-15 years, have on the price of gold? What will happen to the dollar? What would life be like in America?
What does oil have to do with gold?
Also, they've been saying that there would be a 90% decline in oil production since the 70's.
That was before I was born, and I've lived my whole life with cheap oil. Now, there's more oil than ever.
Life in America would suck, but that still doesn't have anything to do with gold. If anything, it would make gold DECREASE because our economy would be stagnant, there would be no money, and nobody would buy gold.
If you can't even buy food, how the hell you going to buy gold?
Further, if that scenario happened, you'd all be willing to trade your gold nuggets for some food and shelter, since the economy would be gone.
Either way you slice it, gold is close to being at its peak now. We've already crashed, we've already printed a shitton of money, and the economy WILL improve again.
And to think MB it took you only three simple sentences to essentially demolish the author's argument. So the gold prediction must have serious merit, right?
I think that the person making this prediction doesn't have a clue. Especially about the gold prediction!
I see inflation over the long term because Bernanke and Geithner will not allow deflation at any cost, but I still don't see gold going that high. That's some hefty inflation!
I think that the person making this prediction doesn't have a clue lol
will i know for a fact that the statement above is pure hubris ,, who does not have a clue lol
sinclair (go read his resume )
is an expert on gold .. says 1650 gold then on to 5000
martin armstrong a genuis on cycles . go do some study
sees 5000 gold
economic man is not linear. human experience is cyclic
bag to differ but some one 30 years old ..making flat out statments about gold with out any knowledge about gold but a very limited education,, masked in keynesian teaching .. breast fed,, from the pavlovian gruel machine
frankly the more you open you mouth about gold... what gold is , what gold will do . exposes your age , your flawed monetary experience ..and a plethora of flawed and laughable insights
son .. and i use that term to expose the underside of hubris ,, wait until you have more exposure.
to take on the likes of some of the giants in the gold industry ,, the gata's the sprotts,et al . the shameful fed action for 80 years to discredit gold ,, wait before opening your mouth until you can bring to the argument ..
some well thought out reasons about gold . other than the standard "i do not think it will" yes probably right ,, you have not thought it out ,,
No, I've thought it out a ton. We're simply not going to DOUBLE or QUINTUPLE the money supply, which is what it would take to get gold that high. We've already printed a shitload of money, and most of that isn't even in the economy.
If they needed to stimulate the economy, they could just take THAT money sitting on the banks' balance sheets.
Look, here's the thing, I'm not even 30. But that doesn't matter, because I'm right and you're wrong.
You can call me laughable all you want, but I'm not the retard buying an asset at its peak. I didn't buy housing in 2006, oil in 2007, or dot com stocks in 2000. Gold is just the next asset in that line.
It's okay. You can say what you want, demean my age instead of making a good argument, it doesn't matter. I'll be laughing at you morons every time you put on your tin foil hats and listen to what some "expert" tells you about an asset that is already bought to its peak.
I called the top at 1220, and I got yelled at then, and I'm still telling you mofos that if it even gets to 1500, I'll eat my hat. Straight up.
So say what you want. Buy an asset at its peak, make sure you buy physical so it's not liquid, and pay a premium over market prices on top of that for your physical. After this crisis - maybe in 30 years, you'll break even.
like i said .. open your mouth and you show ignorance ,,,
you have not as clue ,,, i hope your still banging your tonsils on gold ,, and its probable further price,.
yes 29 going on.... not prepared for future events .
do you have a clue about jim sinclair
martin armstrong geta rogers , paulson rhe hedge fund guy,,a clue about austrian economics ,, a clue ABOUT WEALTH .. to preserve ,, did you call th4e bottom in gold at 260 of ciurwse not you were 18
did you experience the gold run of the 70.s of course not ,,
do you have a job.. or on unemployment like the 20%
your anal name .. your use of barn yard talk ,,is testiment to a life that does not have a clue, have you studied the cycle works of martin armstrong the lifes work of jim sinclair ,, geta's work,, do you understand gibson paradox,, the strong dollar policy under clinton..
a hat eaten will be tasteful as this may be a lone meal,, you act as if you have a clue,
so many understood gold at 1230 or so was a peak of this run ,, that 1040 or so would be the low then in the early march period ,, gold will once again be on the move up,,
live with the notion that your hubris on gold is a harbenger of a learning experience.. that will leave you at home plate ,,as triples and homers are bagged ,
learn from the giants ,, austrian economics ,, or the mouth will not only eat a hat ,, but also a FOOT ..
5
I wasn't even 18 when gold was at the bottom. What does my age have to do with anything? Right is right. You can say whatever you want, but you'll still be wrong later.
With that said, I know a lot about Austrian economics. I spend hours at mises.org reading the free books. Next, my family is FROM Austria. One of my ancestors invented stochastic calculus. I could go on and on, but I'm not going to.
You can say whatever you want, but your arguments don't say anything except that "Gold is going to 90 billion". You don't have any of the logic that you deride me for, you don't make any arguments with tangibility.
How's this? I'll "learn about Austrian economics" when you learn how to type like you're not retarded.
Show me the post where you called the top.
In zerohedge? That was my DEBUT posting here. Why do you think I have so many fans?
I've been making fun of the morons here the whole way down. You can believe me or not, but I remember when it was on its way up, and there was a post like "Gold at 1130." "Gold at 1140" every fifteen seconds and I was like "y'all niggaz are high."
I'm sorry, I don't keep links to my old posts. I just don't.
Which is why need to scan them via your account history or "eat dick", per your own words. Same bullshit in all of your posts.
I like the gold prediction- I have it trading year end in a range of (low-due solely to demand using LOW inflation of 17%-25%) $1850-$2150 and (high-adjusted for 25%-35% inflation) $2150-$3500. I believe the Doelarr will lose in between 20%-35% of it's value). I see deflation in the rear view mirror. The deflation has until March 6th to take hold. After that, the banks will loan too much money into the system for deflation to be a threat to fiscal and monetary policy.
However, as I see hyperinflation approaching (or stag if you will) I think stocks will show gains....most nominally, but some in real terms. I think picking stocks will be few and far between. Here is my short list. ABX, HES, WFMI, CSCO, V, TSL (hey LEO!), and CAT (short term, for the jobs bill).
From where, one bankrupt country to two MASSIVELY overcapacitied ones?
The power is shifting to India and Brazil...figure it out