The Four Things That Keep Morgan Stanley's Teun Draaisma Up At Night

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Mon, 12/14/2009 - 20:51 | 163980 lsbumblebee
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You know, the more I listen to these investment "strategists", the more they sound like gypsy astrologists.

Mon, 12/14/2009 - 21:41 | 164033 Anonymous
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Gypsy astrolers have not caused this much harm in their entire span of existence.

Mon, 12/14/2009 - 23:07 | 164109 carbonmutant
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Financial shaman, we brought them with us out of the jungle.

Mon, 12/14/2009 - 21:11 | 164010 Racer
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I think the worlds politicians have serioulsy underestimated the effect that cutting the interest rate on savings for the prudent people will have on global spending...

they think that a cut for those who are borrowing money will boost the economy....

 

japan,  had big savings, us not a lot... but cutting rates in japan did not much for a long time.... us cut rates has caused a big massive dead cat bounce thanks to the ppt...

bye bye scam, this will only end in mega tears and made much worse by the idiots who think they can sort it all out

 

Mon, 12/14/2009 - 22:40 | 164083 aus_punter
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thats an interesting angle on rates and Japan

Tue, 12/15/2009 - 03:02 | 164262 chindit13
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Here's the dichotomy:  cutting rates in Japan eventually led to a decline in savings without a concomitant increase in spending (nor economic growth), because when savings failed to earn a rate of return sufficient to cover expenditures in an aging population, people had to begin dipping into the nest egg.  Thus, the savings rate in Japan fell from 17% in 1990 to below 2% (and below the US savings rate) today.

In the US, (speaking from personal experience) the savers have gotten punished by ZIRP, while the spendthrifts who were part of the debt bubble problem cannot borrow and are having their credit lines cut.  So ZIRP does nothing at all except lead to an increase in bank reserves, minus the slippage that goes into equity market speculation and has fueled this no volume rally.

Mon, 12/14/2009 - 21:39 | 164032 Anonymous
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These people are unbelievable!

Do they not realize, there is life beyond their offices and cubicles?

"Unlike risks, which are known and measurable, uncertainty is difficult to calibrate."

I will become your personal slave, if someone would enlighten me as to where I could learn this.

Mon, 12/14/2009 - 22:30 | 164077 lsbumblebee
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Here's a forecast that makes more sense, from my second favorite website, itulip:

"Thirty years of the FIRE Economy, with its asset inflations, deflations, and reflations, its special relationships with foreign lenders who financed the game, its tax and regulatory programs geared to asset special interests, its public debt policy to take from the future and give to the present, brought us here—to the Market Asylum. It’s a place where interest rates cannot be raised, nor lowered, because at rock bottom they sit at the level where the over-leveraged private and public sectors need them to stay. Where taxes cannot be cut because the deficit already stretches even the most entangled creditor’s credulity. Yet no new asset bubbles can free us from the Asylum’s walls because the private credit markets have developed the generational timidity that's typical of all crash survivors.

Fund managers and retail investors alike watch their wardens’ every move from inside the Asylum for signs that indicate their intentions, for even a word from them has more weight than the decisions of one million wards acting according to their own judgment and needs."

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=138356#post138356

Tue, 12/15/2009 - 00:04 | 164148 tom a taxpayer
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Just what the world needs...a four-handed prognosticator.

Why stop at four? Teun needs to go back to pub and throw more darts.

Tue, 12/15/2009 - 00:49 | 164185 Anonymous
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I think it would have been useful to describe the position to take to survive the 4 surprises,especially for the financial newbies.

Tue, 12/15/2009 - 03:29 | 164278 Grand Supercycle
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Technical analysis also works if applied correctly.

The Trend is your friend . . .

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Tue, 12/15/2009 - 07:39 | 164321 Anonymous
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What an asshole...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!