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Please read my latest entry and post your comments here:
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/04/fragile-global-recovery.html
Thank you,
Leo Kolivakis
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There is a stealth bear market going on - look at GS, GOOG, FSLR, POT, MON.
go for it lol
Everybody continues to belittle Leo and refuses to hear what he is saying. The market will continue to go up because of the enormous amount of liquidity being pumped into the market as well as some other pertinent factors, he is not condoning it just stating it as fact. Until there is a game changer this is right. If you want to argue with him argue against this premise, not just belittle him because he says something you don't want to hear or don't agree with.
leo infers by the content of his pension blogs ,, that their is lurking in the background a few select establishment guys that say we will be seeing better times .
his selection of quotes to place in these letters to pensions are pro pension,, pro economy i suspect as a necessity for his target audience
he nixes gold as a place for pensions to be . even though the last ten years have been spectacularly good,
number one he does not understand or does not show the nexius to Austrian economics .
when was the last time leo choose a jim sinclair snippet for his pension outlook.
or for that matter a whole plethora of content about gold . its purpose, its hedge against the printing of the Keynesian state /
the gold bashers en-total .. are mired in a bog of propaganda , taught at the feet of paper money people
and have not a centelia of content understanding for a debasing of all currencies and the race for gold world wide .
this is not an anomalie it is a serious and ongoing fight between the pushers of paper and the teachers and pundits of real wealth
leo infers by the content of his pension blogs ,, that their is lurking in the background a few select establishment guys that say we will be seeing better times .
Better times due to the pumping of the economy and market (will it catch up to us, undoubtedly, but when is the question so far it hasn't.)
Is gold a good place to be? Logically yes, but with the market manipulation is it really. There is a valid argument to be made regarding gold.
this is not an anomalie it is a serious and ongoing fight between the pushers of paper and the teachers and pundits of real wealth
Who has been winning so far? Not that I agree or condone this system, but they have prevailed so far.
I see the future Leo : Tall shiny sky scrapers everywhere. Small Ma and Pa stores and companies going bankrupt and boarded up, and closing down. Tent cities, empty suburban cookie cutter neighborhoods, and mass unemployment . Goverment austerity plans. This will conicide with, a rising commodities and stock market, huge corporate profits , wars , world starvation. FEAR , FEAR and more FEAR. Than finally a revelation by the masses this is all a bunch of SHITE. ....... followed by REVOLT , a huge ass kicking on the Slave masters. Than finally peace and relief.
Haven't we learned during this "crisis" not to trust numbers or economists who can't see beyond those numbers?
Isn't this rather an obsession with currency-denominated statistics? Just like the IMF: ignore the fact that debt is rising and little or no real, physical wealth is being created and concentrate instead on number-crunching and wonkmanship in a grubby effort to try to quantify the unquantifiable.
The only REAL measure of "growth" ultimately comes down to whether standards of living are on the whole rising, flat or falling. Forex 'profits', paper spreads, swap profits, interest income or other currency-denominated "gains" should NOT be included in growth measurements, in the same way that gold futures contracts in which delivery never takes place should not be allowed to influence the price of the metal.
SHOW US THE REAL, PHYSICAL GAINS.
'Nuff said.
Leo, I keep this short. There is not going to be a recovery.
groovy girl
fron national inflation association
Food stamp usage in the U.S. has now increased for 14 consecutive months. There are now 39.4 million Americans on food stamps, up 22.4% from one year ago. (Food stamps are the soup lines/bread lines of the Great Depression.) The U.S. government is now paying out more to Americans in benefits than it collects in taxes. As food inflation continues to surge, our country will soon have no choice but to cut back on food stamps and other entitlement programs.
Most financial experts in the mainstream media are proclaiming that the recession is over and inflation is not a problem in the U.S. Unfortunately, they fail to realize that rising food and gasoline prices accounted for 58% of February’s year-over-year 3.85% rise in retail sales. NIA believes price inflation is beginning to accelerate in many areas of the economy besides food and energy, and all increases in U.S. retail sales this year will be entirely due to inflation.
and food prices were up 2.4%, but since Uncle's buying dinner, why not?
Thank you, dumpster. What you point out does just go to show that, whatever the IMF says about U.S. growth (1-2% or whatever), it is merely paper-denominated profit income and means diddly-squat in real terms to real people.
Global ? Right here in Illinois, FDIC closed 7 banks on a single Friday. Is the FDIC trying to make a statement ?
sure an understatement lol 400-800 more to go
or did you mean 4000-8000 (do we have that many banks?)
You see? It's just like Larry Summers said yesterday. Most "experts" agree that closing a lot of little banks will be a greater strain on the system than closing a couple of humongous banks. Therefore we should feel doubly blessed that we have these humongous, monopolistic banks! What an a**hole!
Funny how whenever I post something on the second wave of the financial crisis, I get five star ratings, but if I post anything remotely bullish, I get whacked hard on ZH. This place is a lab for behavioral finance experts and psychologists. Remember all those ZH fleas attacking me when I wrote on the tsunami of liquidity and underperformance anxiety propelling risk assets higher?
Then you got people saying "I can't figure these markets out". Like it takes a genius to see what is going on here. The banksters are making a killing, and so are their large hedge fund clients, playing all of you like fools. They got multi million dollar computers running algo all day long, and you - the little guy - is caught there thinking WTF!?!?
That's Casino Capitalism. The banksters make a killing and savers and pensioners get screwed. Some people call this social Darwinism, but we all know it's fraud perpetrated by banksters who control the financial system, and are protected by their buddies in Washington.
Whatever, I'll stick to those hot booty clips from Mykonos. It's all bullshit. You can't fight the system when so much power is concentrated in such few hands.
"we all know it's fraud perpetrated by banksters who control the financial system"
"It's all bullshit. You can't fight the system when so much power is concentrated in such few hands."
Is that what you tell your kids?
Is that what you expect them to serve?
Do you really think sycophantic diatribes will grant you membership into the club?
Or is your advice simply; lay down, spread your legs, close your eyes and think of the tiara?
Leo - you need to distinguish between bullishness on the economy and bullishness on the stock market. I am still trading long on stocks until either the fed signals it is raising interest rates or "the event" sends stocks in a tailspin. Long-term I am very bearish on the economy but I will trade whatever the market (read 'banksters") give me. Right now, that seems to be down economy and up stocks.
+1, with trailing stops.
-999 when the bid disappears
I agree with you, and will discuss this in my next post.
GDP growth has only a correlation with economic recovery. Unfortunately, all GDP really measures is economic activity. All things being equal, GDP can increase after a hurricane sweeps through an area and causes economic activity to increase to get all of the damage back to par. You can increase GDP by getting people to dig holes (or higher 1 million census workers), but what you're really doing is tieing up capital which will result in anemic (real) growth in economic value of a nation in the future. What you interpret as 'bullish' is simply a misunderstanding of economics and a myopic view of a bigger picture and a short sighted outlook on time scale (2001 'stimulus' and subsequent 'growth' only looked like a good idea for 6 years, until it became a bad idea).
"GDP growth has only a correlation with economic recovery."
I think you are correct...
1. The BEA does not call recessions over on GDP alone.
2. John Williams estimates GDP is currently weighted with a 2% upward bias... 2% = 0% in reality.
I think Williams is correct on his analysis also.
I agree, longer term we face serious issues and rolling bubbles will not work in perpetuity.
Leo - keep it coming - I love Leo weekends because some of the best back and forth goes on following your posts.
As to the IMF - they're just more Washington guys so I pay no attention to anything they say. We have a few problems that won't be easy to solve. We have politicians that only worry about the next election cycle - this is deadly because they need campaign contributions and will sell the country out to get them. Then the criminal class moved to Wall Street (more like the guys that used to run the games at the Carnival) and have no compulsion about cleaning out your parent's retirement funds followed immediately by yours and then your kids - somehow there are individuals that want to emulate them and see them as hero's. Then we have unpayable debt coupled with an aging population.. Any growth is because the FED is printing money - it's an illusion
the IMF is funded by US taxpayers. the fact you don't pay attention says volumes
send this to the pension guys lol
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Wake up. This weekly parade of fiduciary financial failure is HORRIBLE.
The MOPE is to release in groups under 10 to keep the social order.
Gold under your control is the only safe bank today. The price of gold will eclipse my target of $1650.
what nadler is to gold
Leo is to posting something that will not draw boos from his anxious pension buddies and his constituency hanging on a tower of hope
the president of the real estate gang is always glowing about the next run up in real estate
so a pension letter has to be glowing with, frankly paid for shills of the economy which are then past on to zero hedge. different audiences . the pension goodies need to be endlessly flowing , from the sea to shining sea
the pension and retirement for the USA is ready to implode. zero growth .. plenty of eye wash and trillions of fiat going to make believe .
leo a tough job but some one has to do it. lol
LOL, I am not shilling for anyone, least of which for the pension parrots that couldn't care less about me. I just call it like I see it. Tons of liquidity in the financial system is allowing banks to make a killing in their capital markets operations. Some of that wealth will eventually trickle down to the common folks, but the banksters are keeping the lion's share of the profits. The US economy will surprise to the upside in 2010, but if rates start moving up too quickly, all bets are off.
Leo...
Sell crazy somewhere else...we're all stocked up.
"The US economy will surprise to the upside in 2010"
drum roll, snare pop....
Excess liquidity is not "wealth". You have just shown your true colours.
Yes, I know, we need a Depression, so when we all start from zero, then we can start calling it wealth. Sheesh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A "recession"/"depression" is a natural consequence of a credit over-indulgence. Continual inflation of the value of a fiat currency combined with a fractional reserve system is just an enourmous long-term wealth transfer from productive citizens to the bankers and government class. Plain and simple to those with eyes open.
No arguments there, but once in a while, the financial elites trickle some wealth down to appease the masses.
leo nice come back the people you find to quote are likely to shill for the establishment
it was not so much shilling but a slant that is necessary for pension letters i suppose ,
i know you call it like you see it ,, here take my spectacles ... we can see things differently
yes the market can surprisre to the up side with 15% of gdp printed up by governbments it goes to the markets for the next election .
it all an illusion of senses . check it next to gold , gold is head and shoulders above.
an oz of gold buys way more market than just a few years ago,
check out the price of gold per oz to buy a house ,,
at 1600 gold 200 oz will buy a pretty decient home
ibelieve your not as turned on to gold as some .. and are looking for the ring some other direction
Gee, Leo, as if Stanley Fischer (Group of Thirty) is actually ever believable????
Any recovery in the USA is mathematically impossible for the reasons given below.
The important thing to understand about credit derivatives is that they are the weapon of choice for leveraged speculation, or more accurately, ultra-leveraged speculation.
Over one-third of the world's credit derivatives are controlled by the top five American banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and BankofAmerica), and this is principally how they derive all their profits: by the rigging and manipulation of markets through the use of credit derivatives, and also by the selling of those derivatives.
Also, the majority of the derivatives were created by those five, and in many of those cases where those credit derivatives and securitizations were created elsewhere, at least several of those banks picked up tremendous consulting fees in their creation.
This is crucial, because 83% to 85% of the American economy (although that term "economy" really no longer applies) consists of leveraged speculation, and 97% of world economic activity consists of foreign speculation. (Foreign speculation only means that traders - be they hedge funds, private equity firms, banksters, various investors, etc. - funnel their investments through offshore holding companies or offshore finance centers to avoid any and all taxation.)
Now brokers, investment houses and traders only make money from fluctuations in markets, and the more massive those market fluctuations, the more money they make, create and steal. Hence, the local and global economies have been slowly restructured to benefit them, while becoming extraordinary anti-progressive forces, as in working against any and all forms of human progress.
So today the vast majority of the American economy is based upon leveraged speculation, which creates nothing, but destroys much, while colosally wasting untold human time by so many people, both in our country and throughout the planet, spending the bulk of their available time alive either hustling to survive and/or hustling for work to survive.
And the US dollar (USD) is now based upon mortgage loans, which is why all those rising mortgages, and mortgage loans should ALWAYS be viewed with much suspicion and analytical thinking. More mortgage loans are only indicative of more market manipulation, and usually nothing else!
Economy numbers are distracting from the real problems: huge government debt and the debasement of the currencies. IMO all reported 'economic growth' is just inflation. See www.shadowstats.com
The credit crisis is a consequence of the massive over leveraging of debt. Current US policy is making our debt problem worse, resulting in a financial system that is now more fragile and at a greater risk of deflationary collapse than when the recession started in December, 2007. Recent accounting changes allow banks to no longer mark their toxic assets to market valuations which results in bank financial statement numbers that are now pure fantasy. Get a good understanding of the $684 trillion dollar OTC derivatives market—including credit default swaps (CDS)—and why Harry Markopolos, whistle blower on Bernie Madoff, believes, “the evildoers that come to light when the unregulated OTC derivatives market goes bankrupt will make Madoff look small time.” www.theastuteinvestor.net
Excellent points, sir!
We are all system participants. The system has some good points and some bad points.
I applaud ZH for bringing the bad points to the fore so as to suppress or eliminate them, thereby making the entire system better.
Crab-GREAT Rothschilds quote. We have to move more people into the first set, and get more in the second set to realize the system IS inimical to there interests.
You cannot post comments on my blog, so post them here. I have no time to police idiots. If you do not like my posts, move on. No skin off my back. If you think blogging is easy, lol, go ahead try doing it yourself, otherwise, STFUP!!!!
Leo you crack me up, even going so far as to alienate the few people who still like you.
Well FYI, I do write as a contributor here under a different ID, when I am not in trial which is almost constantly. I have certainly never treated people who read my blogs the way you do. Regardless of what people say, or what you think about what they say, its just wrong for you to do the things you do. People are tired of it and it shows. You need to dial down all that anger and be happy that people comment or WANT to comment to you, at all. When the silence becomes deafening and no one wants to read what you say, dont say you were not warned.
Leo, I felt bad in the past about how people treated you here. Now I won't. You deserve it and probably more.The sad part was that I had a valid, question to ask you, and it wasn't even criticism. You know what? Forget it. Never again. Not because I disagree with your blogs, but because I am sick of your constant attacking craptastic bullshit comments to people. How dare you treat people who take the time to read what you have to say, like they are "idiots" you have to police. Who needs this. Well buddy big mistake, I may be ONE reader, but you have lost my readership. I wont be the last if you keep this up, hot shot.
And for the record, anyone who doesn't enable comments on their own blog is a fucking pussy.
Cindy, you can email me with your questions or post them on ZH. I am not a pussy (lol...if you only knew), but simply do not have time to police comments. If you do not like this, then ignore me. I do not care.
Jesus Christ Leo... What Did You Do?
Step in dog shit and track it into Cindy's house all over her white carpet at a socialite dinner party you were invited to?
Seems there is more than just blogging tension here...
I don't think it matters where articles come from as long as the original writer gets proper attribution. I love ZH because it contains the best of everything!
Oh leave Leo alone, if he isn't able to be bothered to cut and paste his article to ZH, who are we to complain? That's a lot of work. Have some mercy.
Also, I am confused I tried to leave a question on your blog in the comment Section and it said I could not b/c I was not a "team member".
Now that makes sense on many levels, but I suppose then again, the whole point to a blog is to allow comments, even from non-team members.
Oh well. Still feelin' some luv for ya Leo.
You know what would be awesome Leo? You actually posting your articles, oh and not highjacking Robo's threads. I've held my tongue for some time, because I suppose you bring some level of value to the site.... However, I'm in a bad mood this morning, and my tolerance for participants in the system that is enslaving this country is waning.
"Those few who can understand the system will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on it favors, that there will be little opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear it burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests." - Rothschild Bros. London 1863
Leo, you are one of the interested and dependent, in a word a tout.
"Global Recovery"?
That is if we define global generational theft as global recovery.
"my tolerance for participants in the system that is enslaving this country is waning"
YES INDEED! That perfectly echos my sentiments!
well freaking put!!
check this guy out:
http://ampedstatus.com/as-the-middle-class-collapses-and-the-american-po...