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Frantic Buying Takes Market Over 10,000, June NFP Miss Now "Priced In", As Is Double Dip
There are probably a few words available to describe just how "forward looking" the market is, as it has just taken out the horrendous June 29 NFP number, and the plethora of ISM and other assorted negative news since then. Fundamentals don't matter, just carry and leverage. With alpha now dead, we hope at least massively leveraged beta plays continue to provide some benefits to whoever is left trading.
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An unreal, pathetic, sad, pitiful, corrupt, and absolutely un-be-fucking-lievable mockery of what was once the world's premier market.
Fuck it. It's done for.
quite a display, wasn't it? long AUD/JPY all day. now dumping. what a sad sad joke our market has become.
So stop shorting it. for christs sake. You poor SOBs sound like a kid who keeps grabbing an electrified fence to see if it's still live. Well, guess what, it's still live.
Who's short? I'm just standing on the sidelines watching the play-by-play.
...I feel sort of like North Korea just slipped one past the goalie. Amazing, yes ... but nothing to bank on.
Popo, I did not mean you personally. Many individuals on this site are heavily short equities and heavily long in leveraged bear funds, which is why everyone goes apeshit whenever the market goes up. Nothing like hearing a debate about whether a noob should be holding onto SDS after three days of solid gains. The reason the market went up is because it was in a heavily oversold condition leading into the weekend. Most institutions and pros bought this morning. Most major brokers were expecting a pop today and they got one. I was suprised by the magnitude myself because of the negative news lately. I have also been on the sidelines since the FX/Equities correlation broke late last week. I was back in the market this morning when I saw that it was back. Here's a hint, if you see the dollar tank in the morning go long. Because you can expect a bump in equities and commodities.
Wow a voice of reason for once. I thought that I was alone...
No, it's official. You're not the only retard in the universe.
I suggest you stay short then. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I made a killing today and closed my position out around four. I come to ZH and it's like a cave of pissed off bears. If it looks profitable I'll go short tomorrow. Making money is more important to me than some incomprehensible agenda. Have fun with your conspiracy theories.
..."I made a killing today and closed out my position around four".
Of course you did.
Dude, how old are you? Five?
"Dude"? Yea, I'm five. Now, go brag and throw your bullshit around to someone else.
LMFAO..."Pros", "major brokers", "heavily oversold condition", god I love that bogus shit.
i hate to tell you this Mr. Maker but i think you need to stay out of the market. Whizbang is right. Ive read a few of your posts recently and i think you are too emtional to be trading this market. All the ZH'ers are unbeleivably pissed off when the market doesnt go down because it "should". The market "should"nt do anything, it does what it does and you are either on the wrong side of it or you arent. I love ZH more than any other site but lets get things in perspective. I few cynical bloggers are no match for the global flows of capital. I know some (definately not all) of those capital flows are manipulated but that is just part of the game now. Either except the game for what is and position yourself ahead of the manipulation or continue to cry like a baby every time the market does something that you think it shouldnt. Any half decent trader should have had contingencies in place for an inevitable bear market rally.Take a break buddy, sometime its a good idea to take a seat on the bench and revitalise. Its a marathon not a sprint.
I gotta support Whizbang here. I think one of the reasons the game has gone on as long as it has is that the investment banks treat all the little-guy short sellers as ATM machines. They know exactly how to manipulate them into taking a large short position and exactly how to panic them into selling by moving the market higher. Wash, rinse, repeat. I think when the last short and technical analyst throws in the towel that the market will finally turn down for real.
+1. Everyone drank the "we're going to S+P 375" kool aid. Especially ZH ers. Is it any wonder we rallied? The whole planet was screaming 'end of days'. Don't mess with a money printer. And remember M Armstrong: "This is not the cycle top".
So stop shorting it for christs sake. You poor SOBs sound like a kid who keeps grabbing an electrified fence to see if it's still live. Well, guess what, it's still live.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/29856/the-simpsons-electric-shock-aversion-therapy
+1
Thanks for the visualization.
Wonder at the 5 minute's smoothness.
Yea, it's almost as if there is a constant and uniform spigot of long money pouring in.
Weird.
And the shorts get destroyed..what a surprise!
We are not destroyed.. we are reloading.
Shorting savagely makes sense to me...except the entire thing is pure manipulation.
Good luck...I hope you do well.But honestly, I have no idea how.It is just insane and unintelligible.By all rights it should be cratering...and now this.Unbelievable.
We shall watch and wait patiently to seize the moment, break the bonds and release the stationary bandit who will destroy the destroyers of the earth.
Don't fret when DXY goes down gold goes down. When DXY goes up gold goes down. Better yet when PMIs are rolling worldwide copper goes up, aluminum too. Rusal learned the lesson of GLD well and is launching its ETF absorbtion sponge. Inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation...no matter equities for the long haul
weak hands are out... it wont break trend...
This is so true that the market is so forward looking that it missed the detour sign 2 miles back and is fast approaching the bridge that collapsed from the last storm.
lol i dont think anybody saw this coming. maybe a good time to go short while you still can?
unless it does this for the next 5 trading sessions, which it just might
buy long-dated puts
Obviously, it's so far detached from ANYTHING that it's entirely plausible. Clearly, it smacked of total desperation to suck in investors for a good swindling.
I have no fucking clue. I can't see which levers are being pulled behind the magic curtain.
We've seen this movie before. It can and will. If you're short, jump ship. Your time will come (and FUCK will it ever come), but the powers that be know how to produce rallies from nothing and they will rip your face off if you doubt them.
@boilermaker, have you learned your lesson yet? I don't know why any sane individual would be in this market. You cannot compete against HFT, algo, GS, the Fed. Those who brag about making money, go get a real job and produce something useful instead of stealing it from everyone else. This "market" is illegal and should be shut down. Use your money to invest in your community.
Following Elliott Wave theory I calculated a standard 60% second wave upside yesterday and that would put the market at 9990. Now, if this scenario is right, the market shouldn't go up much further and will turn down fiercly in the third wave...
Let the battle commence.
I love it!...the total insanity! Chaos theory in play.
look at DAN. Look at ARM. Are you fucking kidding me? Down 10% in two days, then up 10% in one day. Total fucking joke.
Oh, you didn't get the memo?
THE FUCKING 10 yr is calling this bluff
Shhhh.
MACD threatening to trigger up on the daily $TNX.
Yep, that's where the smart money is at.
Alas, confirming Tim's recent prophesy that recovery going as planned
That is Uncle Sam's debit card is being spent as planned...in unaudited realms of mystery.
"Debit" card?
whoever is left trading
Bots and chumps.
Bro I've been out for a while now...
MarketWatch headline.
"Dow Industrials above 10,000 level for first time since June 29."
The uninitiated would think this was a major occurrence and that MarketWatch was talking about June 29, 2009. Of course, they're talking about 5 trading days ago. Naval gazing at it's worse.
"DOW TEN THOUSANDER!!!"
Derrrrrrrr........mumble.........drool.......
PPT:
"We ramp up whores have three available holes and no shame..."
OMEGA is approaching. Only the One knows when...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8ecXITshe8
Oe'larr?
Get charlton heston on the phone - he was the original omega man - may have some pointers.
I assume you wish to speak to the dead.
BTW good news. They were finally able to pry that gun from his cold dead hands. It only took 2 years and 2 months. Man what a death grip he had. I can only hope to hang on to mine half as long.
May every citizen purchase a Sig or Colt or Glock or S&W or whatever.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlton_Heston
Sez here the man was born in No Man's Land, Illinois in 1923.
Perfect.
Excellent observation.
Where are those Dow Baseball caps when we need 'em?
Long: Dramamine.
The market was oversold after the last two week. Time to cover my long...
homer, firstdivision - you guys still want to argue this?
Oversold? In what sense? You mean the economy is getting better? Some lame bank exceeded some sorry forecasts and all of a sudden that's worth a 270 pt gain? Or is it because the world economies are basically hiding their crappy banks in order make everything seem rosy? So, explain to me how this is oversold other than taking a look at some 200-dma charts?
What is your case for a bull market? Don't start with the garbage words "the economy is improving.."
You make it seem like there are people actually out there that think like you and are actually buying up everything - or is it the fact the TBTF banks + the Fed can spend as much taxpayer money to prop up the market and not be accountable for it.
Yes - I'd like to argue this for quite a while until the markets are allowed to unfold properly (and without gov't intervention). I'm sure I can make a much stronger case for going bear than you for being a bull.
Here you again (my post from yesterday) for the 50th time, because I'm convinced that you don't/can't read without your personal beliefs clouding what I actually state.
"And 8 days of selling doesn't necessarily rationalize buying but every indicator in the book rationalizes it. I can't agree with you more that the economy is sh*t and banks are gambling w tax payer's money, etc... But you should know the game and this shouldn't be a surprise."
Maybe if I state one more time: I AM NOT BULLISH YOU DUMBASS. I DO NOT LISTEN TO OR PREACH CNBC PROPOGANDA. THE MARKET WAS OVERSOLD IN THE SHORT-TERM, IT MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO START SELLING AGAIN!
Hope that gets through to you.
HEY DUMBASS. Your were posting your (formerly) bullish short term posts - but you really have no reasonable rationale for it - and yet you have the nerve that ZH is "not-objective." You still haven't answered why one should go short-term long other than the fact you're gambling on your statement "the last 8 days of liquidation surprised anyone, you should probably re-think your logic. This is probably the best opportunity to buy short-term." I'm not going to sit here DUMBASS and let you just brag about how great your prediction when all you're doing is calling out the next card the dealer puts out. If you have real rationale on why to go bullish, great - post your REASONABLE thoughts. If you're just going to say "go long" (in the short term) because a face card or A is coming out soon and say "I told you so", THAT IS NOT AN ACCEPTABLE RATIONALE TO GO LONG IN ANY SITUATION. THERE ARE TOO MANY ECONOMISTS/JOURNALISTS LIKE YOU OUT THERE THAT MAKE UP ANY EXCUSE FOR ANY STOCK MARKET GAIN.
Hope that got through to you.
Don't fret Homer, he semms to be just one of those FAS pumpers from Yazoo, trying to lay claim to being a seer. Anyone with real information, real knowledge, and real research, knows this market is a ponzi scheme waiting to collapse. But as we all know, timing is the key that no one has knowledge of as Benny plays his jokers wild deck. These ETF pumpers love to cheer making a dollar on any given day, even if the decay already cost them two dollars, and the ETF is down $60 from its highs. They think they made money on days like today and the crooks on Wall St. loves these kinds of seers.
Ah finally some fresh insight...
Did you copy/paste your whole post from snippets of last month's ZH posts?
LMAO this is great!
You fail at reading again: "Market was/is technically oversold in the short-term. There are non-confirmations for the move below 1025. Indicators ranging from the non-confirmation on the Vix to NYSE tick data."
You need to lighten up homerboy. You have so much animosity for the market moving up and me questioning zh's objectivity - Don't take it personally, this isn't your website. You only ruin it for the readers looking to freely exchange their ideas...
And I did question ZH's objectivity in the ISM-related post specifically the statement regarding the ES and AUD/JPY trading tick for tick (which it wasn't at the time 7:30 to 10 am) - pointing to some form of manipulation... And as I stated yesterday, when the market was falling tick for tick with AUD/JPY, I didn't see any of these types of posts. Again, please point me to where I was wrong about this and I will happily admit that I'm a prick, bulltard, or whatever insult you want to throw my way...
Either way - chill out, you're too sensitive my lady.
They don't get it Abiggs - they don't see themselves as weak shorts... but they can't stand the pain ... that's why the market takes their money. AFTER they take their money - - THEN we will head down. The market shakes weaks. You wanna be short? Fine! Good plan ... just make sure you can first survive the big rally without losing your marbles and being forced to cover! Everyone here is margined to the eyeballs! You think the "market" doesn't know how to shake that out ... to force you to cover ???!! Gimmie a break...
Homer, many institutional buyers and analysts trade on something called a "technical basis" In this technique there are a number of indicators they use to determine when to buy, and when to sell. These indicators are based on a certain moving average price. When the price drops below an average, they buy, when it goes above, they sell. They do this to keep emotion from clouding their judgment. Every major technical indicator was pegged on "buy" on fridays close. Have fun with your emotional trading :)
Whiz, don't waste your time explaining it to her - she can't read without her emotions clouding her judgement. Moving averages and support/resistances are a figment of the imagination in this ponzi 33 liberty, hal9000, manipulated, casino, robot, gs, bernanke market.
Only when the market sells of do the technicals and fundamentals come into the market. The forces above do not participate in the market Eutopia known as a sell off. Staying short ALL THE TIME is the only correct and honorable path in life.
Well, I go pretty short from time to time too, but I also go long as required. I just like to make money. It just seems like everyone on this site is more interested in conspiracy theory bullsh*t instead of making money. Oh well, more for me...
No doubt that's what the market is here for. And I too go short when the time is right - same goes for my longs, but these guys (gals in homer's case) are something else. They literally tried to rip my head of yesterday when I dared to mention that the market was short-term oversold.
Check out yesterday's ISM, Nasdaq Last Minute Save, and 99 HFT Stocks posts if you want to get a good laugh. I mean some of the things people said about me were too funny...
The problem is that these folks are the types that get gobbled up and spit out by the market on a daily basis. This week's reversal brought them back to reality and as we both know - reality is not a place they are able to function in.
Yeah, it's a little sad to picture 80% of the people who were bitching today losing their faces to margin calls. oh well, cest la vie
Hmm.. where were you super-elite-uber-pro traders this morning before market opened? Probably scouring the futures?
Oh yes, that FLAT move in the futures definitely told you to go long from the open, im sure!
simple technical analysis told me. Also, there was the fact that the carry trade appeared to be back in effect. As I said above, the magnitude of the jump surprised the hell out of me. But considering the size of the short covering spree, I guess I shouldn't have been surprised.
If a true oversold environment was occuring, there would be more volume on the buy side. All you caught today was a dry melt up, but the lube down is flowing. I went short on some at 1050 myself, becuase this is all a bluff and was seen a mile away. You keep trying to point that the moves up are validated and are well within reason. I do not see a shred of evidence to support the fact and will stand by my belief that this market is overvalued. If you think I am surprised over the move up, then you are wrong. This week was one that lacks any economic data that would show the reality, so the melts were obvious so that next week when the numbers hit the headlines can read "unforseen delcine in [insert economic headline]". Why cover your long? You still have 50 points on the SPX before you should worry.
I'm still waiting for you to explain that "simple" fundamental criteria that you use to conveniently value markets with...
Also, please tell me more about your hft theories. What is "place bid chasing (flash dashes)" again?
Hey Abiggs, I like your points. Here are some thoughts:
Fundamental criteria for overvaluation: http://www.multpl.com/
And as for HFT, look at a forum post I made a couple of weeks back called "Notes on What is High Frequency Trading" http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/notes-what-high-frequency-trading
Keep up the pressure and good questions. Knee-jerk bears are as useless as permabulls.
A true "oversold" situation was developing?
Oh please. I dare you to define "oversold" without sounding like an idiot.
Go ahead.
Just take a look at the vix during the 8 days of selling. It will explain better than I can.
popo, many institutional buyers and analysts trade on something called a "technical basis" In this technique there are a number of indicators they use to determine when to buy, and when to sell. These indicators are based on a certain moving average price. When the price drops below an average, they buy, when it goes above, they sell. They do this to keep emotion from clouding their judgment. Every major technical indicator was pegged on "buy" on fridays close. Have fun with your emotional trading :)
Barton?...
No, just his worst nightmare LMAO
There must be something really bad coming down the pipe.
my guess, initial claims tomorrow will top 500K.
My thought too.
I've seen them put in a crash pad over and over right before oh-my-fucking-god bad news.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the retail report be off the chart awful also.
They will claim the holiday caused the jobless claims to be higher like they did last time and people acutal believe that crap. You can't look for a job or file a claim on a holiday because they are CLOSED!!! There is no real impact on claims from a holiday, but no one seems to see past the scam media.
+1000
I agree Michelle, blatant inyourface pumping and out in the open manipulation fraud like this can only mean very soon it wont matter as everyones attention will be shifted to some terrible trainwreck or other.
Anyway, bottom line is this is now the most corrupt fraudulent thing to ever exist on earth. Babel in Babylon was nothing, mere childs play.
Good luck ever getting another retail dollar into this crooked rigged casino, other than thru the invisible hand robbery. We're all being taken down and most dont even know it.
I love how IYR goes up almost 5% in a single trading day.
That's just fucking great.
Then you'll really love DRN, up 13.67% today.
Maybe this is what prompted the buygasm:
It's actually centered on commercial real estate and not residential. Which actually even makes it more asinine.
REITs
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DRN+Holdings
I'm sure this was the reason it went up 15%:
Retailers shuttered more stores in U.S. shopping centers during the second quarter, further delaying a rebound in the struggling retail real estate market, according to research firm Reis Inc.
Hate to quote CNBS, but retail vacancies up, rents down, CMBS delinquencies up.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38123345
Buy SPG, IYR!
Fundamentals are so yesterday.
Just another attempt to sucker in the stupids to lighten their wallets and make the mortgage payment in CT. The economy is a total fucking joke and robots executing algos won't change that....this is strickly gambling and the house (robots) have the advantage........if you're stupid enough they will separate you from your money.
As more & more of the market is owned by the PPT & the banksters the easier it is for them to maneuver it wherever they want. When it ultimately comes thundering down it won't matter any more.
Next weeks headline.
"Dow Industrials below 10,000 level for first time since, 24 hrs ago."
lol
Remember the new HFT algo is: Max Irritation. Eventually we'll just stop watching because it's just too irritating. The computers want the humans to go away and leave the market to them.
Jim yes this is ALL about getting rid of the irritating chatel, we're no longer needed. It IS a demoralization operation, no question about it.
I remember the market going up big time on the 13th October 2008, which, if I recall correctly, was due to an interest rate cut.
Stupidly, I shorted the market on 4 occasions today - who would have though a 400 plus point move (from bottom overnight to end of day) on the back of MBA Mortgage Applications below expectations and European data coming at or below expectations.
Today's move had HFT written all over it and I'm a mug to think that anything approaching a decent market still exists.
DavidC
You not the only fool, have a beer!
So let's stop and think of what's going through the mind of everyone who got margin called today...
Clearly they're in denial but what is their next move? Go back in long fully leveraged? Or go right back in short fully leveraged?
+100
Check out the open interest change for sep 850 and 950 spy puts over the last two days..huge percentage differences. I am still stayin short. Let's see if I get burned.
+1 but IMO they'll be a rally for a couple of days/week/week or two.
My friends, may we have a moment of silence for the Bears? Myself included. (She wipes tear from eye after the clobber of the day).
They're just rippin the assholes out of the shorts just like the way the gold longs got augered out last week. SP looks like 1100 is next. Ouch.
What's up is down, what's down is up.
What's right is wrong, what's wrong is right.
We've all seen it in every other aspect of life. Now it's fully integrated into Wall Street.
The Epic of Ponzi-schemes continues...FOREVER!
Capitulation, bitchez!
3% market melt-up on 1/3rd avg volume...lets see, options remain virtually unchanged as do bonds. So apparently the FED went naked short 5 minutes before close and markets open 3% down tomorrow? Just as likely as anything else in this insane asylum.
Seriously, who would go long before NFP is released?
Two alternatives:
a) Bluff
b) Insider trading
I bet on "a".....
Also, the market was watching very close the 1.040 barrier on ES. I guess today was just a big short squeeze...
The problem is, the bulls are blowing their wads in one day phenomenom runs, and there is no one left for the carry over. I bet the market loses 200 points tomorrow easily. Futures will probably open down bigtime. I bet we see 9400 by end of next week.
I'd like to think that.. but after they shed last week's unemployments numbers like tissue off a baby, the TBTF banks and the Fed will make sure this gravy train lasts on any low volume day. I haven't seen too many low SP500/DJI futures' numbers prior to opening bell since the gov't loves to prop up the numbers to make things rosier than they really are.
jkruffin's icon and homersimpson's icon are staring at each other
Your icon just pierced my eyes. Ow!
Thanks for the chuckle Absurdum...
The SPX has 13% cash...
They'll play the melt up game until they can't, it's just that simple. When the next disaster is in our face, blowing up, it will all come crashing down. Coudl be a flash crash, could be anything. The central bankers and the Obama cartel will stop at nothing to make you a beleiver. This is their system that is crumbling, what do you expect them to do? Just pack it in? Go home? No way. These psycho paths will do whatever it takes to keep this fucked up, broken system alive because it enriches them....not us.
The cat, having sat upon a hot stove,
will not sit on a cold one either.
Who said that?...
Ok Tyler, Get to work. Find out if this rally was real or was it our tax money doing Gods work. Ill stay tuned.
Once again, the "doom thread ratio" displayed here in the last 5 days proves to be an amazing short term contrarian indicator.
"like"
Bongo...
Anywhere from 1075 to 1130 is now the ultimate trader's paradise. Wait until this sucker rolls over in September. SPY Spet 92's at 1.45 look yummy right about now.....
The chart up there looks like a drowning person coming up for air, twice. It's three times in all the stories....then blub blub.
Hey, I iz a 'market analyst' too!
Since no human method of analysis works anymore, I wonder what stocks Paul the Octopus is picking these days?
Ladies and gentlemen, we need to put our faith in the psychic cephalopod Paul the Octopus. No amount of silicon overclocking can complete with an invertibrate sea creature who sees the future.
you mean Lloyd?
Look at the weak volume in SPY. I can only imagine what the folks in the NE electric bill will look like. Less money to spend. This dead cat bounce had no volume.
SPY today just crawled back up to the flash crash low, wow just goes to show what things really look like when you get your nose off the glass.
The SP500 was about to have a major bearish cross. The exp 50 day was about to cross the 200 day exp moving average. Not one pull back today, if you did not get on at the open you were out of luck.
With 70% of the trades being algo/robot trades...who the hell is CNBC talking to and who the hell are they trying to give trading advise to? Clearly its not the 'individual' trader or investor that controls the market anymore. It's made their commentary as relevant as the Titanic's steering wheel on the way down.
Clearly they dont understand this as every day they seem to baffled by the actions of the market. If they truly want to be useful they need to bring in a segment call "Robo Trading" and give humans a shot at taking down the effing robots.
Maybe they can actually interview an actual robot like HAL from Space Odessey or Pimpbot 5000 from Conan.
http://www.myspace.com/pimpbot5k
There has to be a relationship between these uber rallies and open put positions. Goldman and the rest of the mafia did not allow a market for CDS's (puts) when it didn't suit them.
And when it was time for them to finally buy up the CDS's (puts), it was basically sell it to them or risk counterparty middle finger. Sure, we'll sell you the CDS, but if you try to exercise your put we will just go under. But if we go under everything is doomed so you have to bail us out with free money (not that we can't create it with a key stroke (we can)).
Welcome to the world of 100% winners all the time. How do you fight the guys rigging the game? Whoever answers that will be very wealthy in a short amount of time.
The way to beat the guys rigging the game, is DON"T PLAY! Everyone pull every single penny out of brokerage accounts, 401k's, IRA's, put it in cash and don't play, is the ONLY way they will be beaten and destroyed at the same time. When people figure this out, then it will end.
Wow! ---- Something must be lurking in the shadows and they needed a bit of padding. Really- no news - just estimates that disappear like tears in rain. Be on guard over the rest of the week. Not only did they buy the dips they purchased "Hope" as well. (Hope is a cheap Whore that shags you over while the rest of your Life is put on hold)
Wow! ---- Finally someone who sees it like I do! I mentioned this yesterday. The desperate gold takedown of last week combined with the miniscule volume meltup of equities this week should put everyone on notice.
Bad shit is around the corner. Gold will rally and stocks will drop. Possibilities:
1) Announcement of major QE2 (maybe)
2) Surprise Israeli attack on Iran (possible)
3) Major Eurozone sov debt crisis (perhaps)
Well, on February 8th IWM was 59ish, on April 26th IWM was 74ish, and yesterday, July 6th, IWM was 59ish. Quite a round trip. RSI touched 30 (over sold).
Volume was weak in the Q's, so so on SPY and IWM. Today was an up day in an intermediate term down trend that started end of April. The sharpest rallies occur in bear markets.
If the US Dollar starts taking a hit, money goes from bonds to stocks and commodities. I'm just sayin'
Also, not unusual to have a light volume summer rally July and August and sometime in September the days get shorter, the air chills, and it's time to buy out of the money puts for the occasional autumnal collapse.
You're just saying the calender trends because you're frustrated. You know there is no seasonal determination to what will happen in the market tomorrow.
I'm not frustrated. I wasn't short. I was merely making a few observations. The bit about buying out of the money puts in the fall is just a 2008 fantasy. A crash needs a catalyst. Although in truth there a few lurking out there.
I agree with the "padding" theory espoused here and above. Almost a guarantee.....great avatar "Lennon = Legend"
The ICSC hasn't even released tomorrow's June report and the cheerleaders are keying on nothing more than talking points to goose the market. Read Mish at: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/market-rallies-as-retail-sales.html. This shall all be recitified.
This move is all currency related.
Once you realise the market is totally "rigged" and learn how to play the "waves" you should be making some money.
When GS said the market was going south do the opposite, if you did you are in the black.
I appreciate the theory, but I'm not talking about beating them once in a while when they are "wrong" (debatable it can happen since they hedge everything they say).
I'm on about beating them with a strategy that is 100% effective as they are with their 100% effective HFT's, arb deals, ipos.
They don't lose. And when they lose, they win. I am determined to find the flaw. It may kill me, but I will find it.
Agreed Gimp, and I did get a good call on Friday going into the holiday (the market wouldn't want to stay short). I also had a good call overnight Monday/yesterday.
But the amount and speed of today's move couldn't be (in my opinion at least) just down to the 'lack of news' - the figures and news that came out didn't justify a move like today's.
DavidC
I believe this rally had something to do with the report from the Ministry of Truth that chocolate rations will be 50% higher than previously reported.
Problem I see with trying to game a market you know to be rigged is that the rig only applies in times of calm. When the crap slaps the fan on high speed, you are left with the riggers all squeezing their rotund asses through a pigeon hole. So they build a door that has retinal scanning that only allows their favorite co-riggers through to keep their victims from escaping the disaster.
Back to the question. How do you beat the riggers NOW? I don't mean wait for the supposed collapse and hole up with your posse of self sustaining gold, spam, and gun owners. I mean beat their asses month after month and the algo bots they rode in on.
Maybe ZH should capture a workstation and have it as an HFT 'pet'...put its market moves in a scrolling text box...then outflank it at will.
But, how to sneak up on the SunSparc? Shhhhh....get a net....
Barton Biggs throws in the towel = market rallies
Market has nothing to do with economy , Trading manipulation is now primary source of income for USA ...
By taxing the banks that dont pay taxes?
/DX broke the intermediate up trendline briefly, but bounced back. Agree with Instant Karma, sharpest rallies are in bear trends. Also, the /ES has only just hit the 23% retracement - that's nothing. Let's hope enough Bulls got sucked in to this one late in the day. I got absolutely maimed like never before, but this shitty low volume move only made med add to my shorts.