Friday Afternoon Humor: Birinyi's Ruler Is Back

Tyler Durden's picture

In lieu of the shocking absence of Laszlo from the Comcast lineup of this week's permabulls, we take liberty to extrapolate the S&P 2011 closing price based on the tried and true Birinyi Associates method of predicting the future through a ruler and a pencil, and the last several days of market action. And the result (in log scale) is...


Courtesy of John Lohman... the chart that is, not the metrosexual Hungarian

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goldencross10's picture a result of QE 1,000

HoofHearted's picture

I miss Bang Dae Ho. Can we bring back funny names? I suggest the following: the head of research at NSA was once Richard J. (and he went by his nickname Dick) Shaker.

HoofHearted's picture

Dr. Shaker is still around...and in finance now...

Richard J. Shaker, PhD (mathematics), principal officer, strategist, portfolio manager, trader, client support. Manager of private investment partnerships, 1977-1994. Founded SFS, 1995. National Security Agency mathematician and executive (1968-94). Retired (12/31/94) as Chief, Mathematical Research. Dr. Shaker won numerous prizes for research and management excellence, including the Presidential Meritorious Award in 1993. He headed organization of 100+ research scientists, directing their work and managing multi-million dollar computer design and mathematical research programs. 

Thomas's picture

His parents should have been euthanized.

traderjoe's picture

Knew a guy named Harry Beaver once. Yes, really. 

Cursive's picture

Harry Faggett and Harry Faggett, Jr.  No shit.

LeBalance's picture

Least he was shaking his, what you been doing with ya hooves?

Pretty kick ass CV.

TruthInSunshine's picture

At the rate equity markets are booming, we may pass the 1999 nominal level on the Dow (that basket of constantly changing 30 stocks - General Motors is out, right? What replaced it, and how did GM's long term holders do?...I digress) within a couple of decades.

The Nasdaq? Maybe we'll pass the nominal level it held in 2000 by 2020 or so. It has been on a tear.

I think we'll see 2000 nominal levels regained on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 within 8 years, so not bad there...

Of course, in real terms, and with the USD being devalued at the pace it is, and assuming these nominal levels are reached within the next 8 to 20 years, one would only have lost 80%+ of their wealth, and this at a time when stocks are paying almost all time low dividends (the ones that actually pay dividends).

Then again, the Nikkei was at 40,000 in 1989 and is at 10,000 now. Not too shabby.

Good luck at the Great Equity Market Casino & Resorts, suckers, and HOPE that your 80% Hopium (i.e. best case) scenario comes true, because you'll otherwise be left with even less CHANGE.

Every bagholder gets comped a free kick in the balls on the way out.

Lem Motlow's picture

Or the perennial Libertarian candidate in San Diego, Richard (Dick) Rider.

Henry Hub's picture

I've got to say I'm a little touchy about all the dick jokes.
For half of my life I was know as Dick, and then some evil force decided that Dick meant penis. It happened in the 1960's. So I changed my name to Peter...

kito's picture

how do you spell icup?

wandstrasse's picture

Bang Dae Ho.

& Fook Yue, bitchez. (probably rigged, but classic)

most of you love the 'Fucking' Austrians (vs. Keynesians)

and, maybe less known, for the weekend, two tits from my lovely homeland bavaria, Tittling and Tittmoning.

FischerBlack's picture

PIMCO has Mr. Balls, and the FRBNY has Mr Sack.

I hope they find Mr. Pubes and Mr. Shaft because Mr. Glans is looking for them, and it's just not right to keep Mr. Fromunda waiting.

Robslob's picture

Don't worry...ZH will have plenty of Bearish undertones to make sure you miss out on another 2 years of upside...

Arius's picture

buy low - sell high ... this way you never miss out ...its simple really

being only bullish as you seem to be - i hope you keep your job ...if barclays shows anything pink slips are coming ....

dcb's picture

it is well known the majority of gains happen in the first two years, plus we have structural employment issues that should drag on the economy, plus the more they destroy the dollr the more commodities go up. So, the market could go up because of stagflation. But it could still be a looser in the price of gold. I market going up because of profits that are in an ever decreased unit of profit (dollars) isn't really going up in real terms.


LOL I was reading in the NY times about the argentina success with 5% growth, but at 15 to 20% inflation it isn't really growth. This market is more about ever dillution of currency units than anything else.

Sudden Debt's picture

And that's why Laszlo makes the big bucks and we don't...



hambone's picture

But he could well be right...maybe not for the reasons he thinks he'll be right, maybe not exactly the way it's supposed to happen, maybe nobody looking that ridiculous deserves to be right, and maybe the resultant economy will only benefit a smaller and smaller circle of elites...but he's probably right (we just need to get him a ruler w/ a jagged edge to add some credibility to the charts).

scratch_and_sniff's picture

usd/chf is going to zero in under 2 years using the Birinyi Associates methodology - thats some serious TA porn, im hot just thinking about it.

Downtoolong's picture

Perfect. I needed a good laugh to end the week.

Oops, I just tried the same technique projecting off the last HFT down tic and got DOW minus 80,000 by Monday morning.

mickeyman's picture

I might have to rethink my short position.

DeadFred's picture

This will make Robottrader very happy.

Steroid's picture

Leave the Hungarians alone!!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I heard Sarkozy's mother was Hungarian.

NotApplicable's picture

And his father smelled of elderberries.

Steroid's picture

You're right, he has Hungarian roots. The funny thing is his name as usually mispronounced by non-Hungarians means "between two piles of shit" in Hungarian. I think it is getting more and more fitting.

CD's picture

Another angle:

It certainly seems to me that 'Sarko' is heavily compensating for some sense of inferiority. But 'sar' still mainly just means mud. And he DID become the president of a nuclear power (jokes about military history aside).

Hungarians are a funny lot. Most Nobel prizes (real ones, not Peace) per capita - as long as you count all who were born there, or at least both parents were born there. Engineers, inventors, physicists, nonlinear geometry, the concept and theory of stress in medicine/biology, hologram, ballpoint pen, dynamo -- the list goes on. According to some anecdotes (ultranationalist fabrications, I'm sure ;-) ), when Fermi and Oppenheimer were not in the room, the Manhattan Project team meetings were conducted in Hungarian. Ed Teller of the H-bomb fame was also Hungarian, for better or worse.

But very, very few (if any) are able to make measurable contributions in their home country. The nail that sticks out gets swiftly hammered down, or better yet, pried out and cast aside.

If Birinyi is not to your liking, perhaps check out Antal Fekete (yes, another Hun).

Steroid's picture

You are right "sa'r" means mud, however his name is hardly ever pronounced thus, instead of the ominous "szar" or shit.


BTW of Fekete: This is his story of how Barick Mining was named: When Peter Munk, chairman of the future mining company, another Hungarian was asked about it he said I don't care if it "baszik" (fuck) or "szarik" (shit) just have a name. So it became BARICK:

CD's picture

You're right, of course. Now that I think about it, the French pronounciation of the name even has that nogradi twang " sza'r ". I certainly don't disagree with the characterization of the gentleman in question... :-)

Thanks for that rather unique investor letter. Do you happen to have any perspective on the silver market in Hungary (or if indeed there IS one)? Also, check out tfmetalsreport dot com, it's worth a look.

RobotTrader's picture

Here's a chart of the SPX from the November lows in 1994 to the spring of 1998.

Looks like a frog chart to me.


Looks like we are now in the same spot as May 1997.


Subprime JD's picture

For everyone that shorted the weimar rally you got what you deserve. Don't you all realize by now that its public policy to keep the stock market inflated? Think of all the public and corporate pensions that depend on ever rising rates of return. Throw in the top .1% that own a large percentage of stocks and taadaa you get a ever rising market.

I enjoy ZH very much but I dont trade based off this website's assertions. Once the greek gov bent over and took the bailout debt bomb all bets were off. Wait until the debt ceiling "crisis" gets resolved as more upside will come to the market.

Tyler Durden's picture

Please explain which assertions you refer to? That the stock market is a complete, centrally planned, and robot controlled farce, or that as a result of yet another deflationary plunge the Fed will hyperinflate all fiat into the stratosphere?

Incidentally, should we pull the comment section from last Friday when the whole world was ending? Or is 5 days the maximum attention span of the even so-called intelligentsia? But yes, aside from everything else, all the problems in the world are now fixed based on one data point which as described previously, makes no sense in context with any other data.

Lastly, America was supposed to pull the world out of the economic collapse in late January and February as well.

That surely turned out great.

Subprime JD's picture

or that as a result of yet another deflationary plunge the Fed will hyperinflate all fiat into the stratosphere?

I agree with that statement and see it as the end game as well. Here is a bit of constructive critisism from a long time reader:

1. TD shows baltic dry index falling, but never rising

2. car sales blew out expectations for June, no info on that

3. The focus a few weeks ago on the euro credit spreads being the highest in 2011, but substantially lower than in 08 and 09.

Basically some upside risk articles would not hurt. At the same time the disclaimer says what it says so if fools trade off these bearish articles then they deserve what they get. All in all I agree with the message. The system is fucked up but the ponzi can stay alive longer than many will stay solvent.

hambone's picture

Basically some upside risk articles would not hurt.

Really!!!  Are you fucking kidding me???  A universe of upside risk articles, websites, TV shows, etc. and you want ZH to sell you more sand at the beach???  Maybe every comment should start w/ a big booyahhhh from...

ZH is the scary, dark cave most will not venture into...and you want to add a lighting system, build some ramps to make it wheel chair accessible, and maybe add a concession stand.  Uggghhhhh.

Tyler Durden's picture

A few replies then:

  • The Baltic Index has been at 1400, lower than the beginning of the year, just off all time lows, and at the low end of a multi-year secular cycle. If it were to rise, we will report, fear not.
  • "US car sales dip in June as confidence fades" Source: FT. In case clicking proves problematic, June SAAR is between 11.4 and 11.7 on expectations of 12.0. Can you please provide a link to where car sales are said to be "blowing out" expectations?
  • The Euro credit spreads in 2008 and 2009 did not have the explicit backing of $1 trillion in ECB funding. Furthermore the relevant metric is never the absolute level, but the rate and percentage change from trendline, as any given prevailing level is always arbed on both sides with massive amounts of levered bets. If general rates are lower now than in 2008 it means a far smaller change has vastly more profound implications.

Does that answer your questions?

As for presenting the upside risk, you can get that at your first propaganda outlet, which completely ignores the facts beneath the surface, as the one and only prerogative is to get sheep into Bernie Madoff Securities version 2, also known as the S&P.

Subprime JD's picture

U.S. light-vehicle sales totaled 1,049,220 in June - a slim 2.8% increase in daily sales that dropped the seasonally adjusted annual rate to a 12-month low of 11.4 million units. Analysts had looked for June sales to equal or better May’s 11.8 million unit SAAR.


Unlike May’s dip below trend, which was largely attributable to Japanese auto makers’ inventory shortages, June’s results seemed to indicate an industry-wide slowdown.


Daily sales for June (over 26 selling days, one more than year-ago) were down 8.5% from May (24 selling days), the biggest single-month DSR drop since January, and the biggest May-to-June drop since 2007.


I take back the auto sales blowing out expectations statement.

magis00's picture

Props for intellectual honesty.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Why would you possible assume people here on ZH are shorting the market? Is it because of the tone of the blog and the anger in the comment section? So if someone is angry about the PONZI and manipulation then it stands to reason that they must be short?

Based upon what I have read over the last 2 years very few have remained short if they ever were. A majority have publicly declared they are out of the market entirely and/or they only own physical PMs and/or PM miners and paper PM shares. A very small minority publicly state they are long only and a larger minority state they play the ups and downs. I rarely read of anyone who states they are permanently short the market.

I suspect we are hearing your confirmation bias confirming your long only position. Or maybe you are saying this to wash away your own inner guilt for profiting from the PONZI rather than resisting it? Who knows what your true motives are, but to assume others are short is ridiculous.

Subprime JD's picture

I suspect we are hearing your confirmation bias confirming your long only position. Or maybe you are saying this to wash away your own inner guilt for profiting from the PONZI rather than resisting it?


LOL. For the record I own no stocks. In fact, I own a good 500 oz of silver and 6 kruggerands. I have 15k in cash and 6k in a trading account. Me and my wife just started working 6 months ago and are scrambling to save as much as we can before things get even more difficult.


The funny thing is I went long TNA at the market bottom and sold a few months later because of the california bar exam (stress made me freak out and sell). So your assumptions about me are terribly incorrect.


And wrt people getting burned on their shorts, read the short sqeeze massacre thread.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I made no assumptions about you. I started off by saying I suspect, an admission that I don't know for certain. This is not an assumption, but an admission of uncertainty. I then ask a direct question (hint: it ends in a question mark) and then I go on to say "who knows what your motives are" which is once again a public admission that I don't know.

But you still didn't address my premise, that you are assuming people here on ZH are short. Why are you assuming this? Is it your inexperience as an investor or trader? Do you assume people invest based upon the tone and tenor of the blog they follow? That's what an inexperienced investor often does. I see it all the time in my inexperienced clients. One thread (short squeeze) is all it takes for you to form an opinion?

Notice that I am again asking questions of you.

Subprime JD's picture

But you still didn't address my premise, that you are assuming people here on ZH are short. Why are you assuming this? Is it your inexperience as an investor or trader?


I assume that SOME people are short because I constantly read comments where people state they are short. I've been following ZH around the time of the Chrysler ch 11. From that time, what I've gleaned is that ZH readers are either (a) in PM, (b) all cash or combo PM, (c) out of the market, or (d) SHORT the market. SubprimeJD is my newest username the original is greatdepressiontrader.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is your initial premise.

For everyone that shorted the weimar rally you got what you deserve.

Since you do not explicitly state a time frame other than the "weimar rally" the presumed time frame is over two years since the S&P "weimar rally" you allude to started in March of 2009.

So when someone says they are short are you assuming they have been short the entire two plus years? I ask because you again imply it by not stating a specific time frame. You simply say they deserve what they got for shorting.

When someone says they are "short", if I don't know them I would assume they are short for a limited time frame because of the obvious upward momentum. If I know them by their history of comments I will have a better idea of the time frame they are talking about.

To assume if someone says they are short that they have been short for two plus years is an inexperienced investor's mistake and a very poor assumption. I don't think anyone can tolerate the emotional and financial pain of two plus years of continuous losses without leaving the market or going long to stop the pain. So why would you assume people have shorted the wiener rally?

Now I will make an assumption. It sounds to me like you are enjoying your perception or belief that someone is in emotional and financial pain. Why else then would you say a person deserves the losses you assume they have taken?

Widowmaker's picture

"We got both kinds of music, country AND western!"

Most people on ZH have long and short positions hedged with PM's and wrapped in bacon.

I've been long LVLT (and so should you be) for months, posted about it here and even recommended it to someone who got creamed a couple months ago.  Had they taken the trade they would have made a little sweet mula.

The real mystery is why you don't become a contributor if you wish to see more coverage of a select bias or position, asset class, or...  anything but being sore.

I can't help but think most [commenters] don't do their own homework...

Prometheus418's picture

What I've been getting is that people are using long and short as slang in many cases.  For my part, I've got mixed blue-chips and PM, with almost no cash.  

If you want an upside risk, look for affordable luxuries.  When people don't have the money for a new Lexus, they tend to get a new car stereo instead.  If they can't buy a home, they can probably still get a tricked-out iPhone.  Relatively cheap "status" items like that did very well in Argentina, from what I understand.

FOC 1183's picture

Here I am with an old account, read every single article on the main page, and don't fit into a-d above. I can sympathize with your thought process, but you oversimplify the audience. Many of us have been successfully trading in zero sum markets for three decades or more. We know how to separate reality from market direction, but still want to be educated re what's really going on so as to not lose sight of the big picture. And that is where zh provides an unequaled service.