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Friday Afternoon Humor: Birinyi's Ruler Is Back

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In lieu of the shocking absence of Laszlo from the Comcast lineup of this week's permabulls, we take liberty to extrapolate the S&P 2011 closing price based on the tried and true Birinyi Associates method of predicting the future through a ruler and a pencil, and the last several days of market action. And the result (in log scale) is...

Unrelated:

Courtesy of John Lohman... the chart that is, not the metrosexual Hungarian

 

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Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:33 | 1420120 goldencross10
goldencross10's picture

..as a result of QE 1,000

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:45 | 1420149 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

or OT2

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:27 | 1420261 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

I miss Bang Dae Ho. Can we bring back funny names? I suggest the following: the head of research at NSA was once Richard J. (and he went by his nickname Dick) Shaker.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:29 | 1420264 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Dr. Shaker is still around...and in finance now...

Richard J. Shaker, PhD (mathematics), principal officer, strategist, portfolio manager, trader, client support. Manager of private investment partnerships, 1977-1994. Founded SFS, 1995. National Security Agency mathematician and executive (1968-94). Retired (12/31/94) as Chief, Mathematical Research. Dr. Shaker won numerous prizes for research and management excellence, including the Presidential Meritorious Award in 1993. He headed organization of 100+ research scientists, directing their work and managing multi-million dollar computer design and mathematical research programs. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:20 | 1420344 Thomas
Thomas's picture

His parents should have been euthanized.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:07 | 1420415 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Knew a guy named Harry Beaver once. Yes, really. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:39 | 1420716 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Harry Faggett and Harry Faggett, Jr.  No shit.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1420379 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Least he was shaking his, what you been doing with ya hooves?

Pretty kick ass CV.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 03:41 | 1420908 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

At the rate equity markets are booming, we may pass the 1999 nominal level on the Dow (that basket of constantly changing 30 stocks - General Motors is out, right? What replaced it, and how did GM's long term holders do?...I digress) within a couple of decades.

The Nasdaq? Maybe we'll pass the nominal level it held in 2000 by 2020 or so. It has been on a tear.

I think we'll see 2000 nominal levels regained on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 within 8 years, so not bad there...

Of course, in real terms, and with the USD being devalued at the pace it is, and assuming these nominal levels are reached within the next 8 to 20 years, one would only have lost 80%+ of their wealth, and this at a time when stocks are paying almost all time low dividends (the ones that actually pay dividends).

Then again, the Nikkei was at 40,000 in 1989 and is at 10,000 now. Not too shabby.

Good luck at the Great Equity Market Casino & Resorts, suckers, and HOPE that your 80% Hopium (i.e. best case) scenario comes true, because you'll otherwise be left with even less CHANGE.

Every bagholder gets comped a free kick in the balls on the way out.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:18 | 1420336 Lem Motlow
Lem Motlow's picture

Or the perennial Libertarian candidate in San Diego, Richard (Dick) Rider.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:56 | 1420498 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

I've got to say I'm a little touchy about all the dick jokes.
For half of my life I was know as Dick, and then some evil force decided that Dick meant penis. It happened in the 1960's. So I changed my name to Peter...

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:51 | 1420650 kito
kito's picture

how do you spell icup?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:40 | 1420458 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Bang Dae Ho.

& Fook Yue, bitchez. (probably rigged, but classic)

http://www.picshag.com/pics/092009/fook-yue-seafood-restaurant.jpg

most of you love the 'Fucking' Austrians (vs. Keynesians)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/9746565@N07/2079669968/

and, maybe less known, for the weekend, two tits from my lovely homeland bavaria, Tittling and Tittmoning.

http://www.firmendb.de/ortsschilder/ortsschild_tittling_bayern.png

http://www.firmendb.de/ortsschilder/ortsschild_tittmoning_bayern.png

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:36 | 1420475 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

PIMCO has Mr. Balls, and the FRBNY has Mr Sack.

I hope they find Mr. Pubes and Mr. Shaft because Mr. Glans is looking for them, and it's just not right to keep Mr. Fromunda waiting.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:38 | 1420122 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Don't worry...ZH will have plenty of Bearish undertones to make sure you miss out on another 2 years of upside...

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:16 | 1420433 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

That is just awesome.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:52 | 1420173 Arius
Arius's picture

buy low - sell high ... this way you never miss out ...its simple really

being only bullish as you seem to be - i hope you keep your job ...if barclays shows anything pink slips are coming ....

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 09:23 | 1421118 dcb
dcb's picture

it is well known the majority of gains happen in the first two years, plus we have structural employment issues that should drag on the economy, plus the more they destroy the dollr the more commodities go up. So, the market could go up because of stagflation. But it could still be a looser in the price of gold. I market going up because of profits that are in an ever decreased unit of profit (dollars) isn't really going up in real terms.

 

LOL I was reading in the NY times about the argentina success with 5% growth, but at 15 to 20% inflation it isn't really growth. This market is more about ever dillution of currency units than anything else.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:34 | 1420126 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And that's why Laszlo makes the big bucks and we don't...

 

 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:26 | 1420251 hambone
hambone's picture

But he could well be right...maybe not for the reasons he thinks he'll be right, maybe not exactly the way it's supposed to happen, maybe nobody looking that ridiculous deserves to be right, and maybe the resultant economy will only benefit a smaller and smaller circle of elites...but he's probably right (we just need to get him a ruler w/ a jagged edge to add some credibility to the charts).

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:38 | 1420127 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

usd/chf is going to zero in under 2 years using the Birinyi Associates methodology - thats some serious TA porn, im hot just thinking about it.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:37 | 1420137 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Perfect. I needed a good laugh to end the week.

Oops, I just tried the same technique projecting off the last HFT down tic and got DOW minus 80,000 by Monday morning.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:42 | 1420140 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

I might have to rethink my short position.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:39 | 1420144 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This will make Robottrader very happy.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:45 | 1420147 Steroid
Steroid's picture

Leave the Hungarians alone!!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:11 | 1420218 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I heard Sarkozy's mother was Hungarian.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:19 | 1420247 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And his father smelled of elderberries.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:35 | 1420279 Steroid
Steroid's picture

You're right, he has Hungarian roots. The funny thing is his name as usually mispronounced by non-Hungarians means "between two piles of shit" in Hungarian. I think it is getting more and more fitting.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:27 | 1420696 CD
CD's picture

Another angle:

http://www.rferl.org/content/Name_Sarkozy_Hugely_Popular_Among_Roma_In_E...

It certainly seems to me that 'Sarko' is heavily compensating for some sense of inferiority. But 'sar' still mainly just means mud. And he DID become the president of a nuclear power (jokes about military history aside).

Hungarians are a funny lot. Most Nobel prizes (real ones, not Peace) per capita - as long as you count all who were born there, or at least both parents were born there. Engineers, inventors, physicists, nonlinear geometry, the concept and theory of stress in medicine/biology, hologram, ballpoint pen, dynamo -- the list goes on. According to some anecdotes (ultranationalist fabrications, I'm sure ;-) ), when Fermi and Oppenheimer were not in the room, the Manhattan Project team meetings were conducted in Hungarian. Ed Teller of the H-bomb fame was also Hungarian, for better or worse.

But very, very few (if any) are able to make measurable contributions in their home country. The nail that sticks out gets swiftly hammered down, or better yet, pried out and cast aside.

If Birinyi is not to your liking, perhaps check out Antal Fekete (yes, another Hun).

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 02:52 | 1420870 Steroid
Steroid's picture

You are right "sa'r" means mud, however his name is hardly ever pronounced thus, instead of the ominous "szar" or shit.

 

BTW of Fekete: This is his story of how Barick Mining was named: When Peter Munk, chairman of the future mining company, another Hungarian was asked about it he said I don't care if it "baszik" (fuck) or "szarik" (shit) just have a name. So it became BARICK:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/5689/to-barrick-or-to-be-barricked-that-is-the-question

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 12:09 | 1426674 CD
CD's picture

You're right, of course. Now that I think about it, the French pronounciation of the name even has that nogradi twang " sza'r ". I certainly don't disagree with the characterization of the gentleman in question... :-)

Thanks for that rather unique investor letter. Do you happen to have any perspective on the silver market in Hungary (or if indeed there IS one)? Also, check out tfmetalsreport dot com, it's worth a look.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:44 | 1420155 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Here's a chart of the SPX from the November lows in 1994 to the spring of 1998.

Looks like a frog chart to me.

LOL......

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&instty...

Looks like we are now in the same spot as May 1997.

 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:47 | 1420161 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

For everyone that shorted the weimar rally you got what you deserve. Don't you all realize by now that its public policy to keep the stock market inflated? Think of all the public and corporate pensions that depend on ever rising rates of return. Throw in the top .1% that own a large percentage of stocks and taadaa you get a ever rising market.

I enjoy ZH very much but I dont trade based off this website's assertions. Once the greek gov bent over and took the bailout debt bomb all bets were off. Wait until the debt ceiling "crisis" gets resolved as more upside will come to the market.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:53 | 1420183 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Please explain which assertions you refer to? That the stock market is a complete, centrally planned, and robot controlled farce, or that as a result of yet another deflationary plunge the Fed will hyperinflate all fiat into the stratosphere?

Incidentally, should we pull the comment section from last Friday when the whole world was ending? Or is 5 days the maximum attention span of the even so-called intelligentsia? But yes, aside from everything else, all the problems in the world are now fixed based on one data point which as described previously, makes no sense in context with any other data.

Lastly, America was supposed to pull the world out of the economic collapse in late January and February as well.

That surely turned out great.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:19 | 1420246 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

or that as a result of yet another deflationary plunge the Fed will hyperinflate all fiat into the stratosphere?

I agree with that statement and see it as the end game as well. Here is a bit of constructive critisism from a long time reader:

1. TD shows baltic dry index falling, but never rising

2. car sales blew out expectations for June, no info on that

3. The focus a few weeks ago on the euro credit spreads being the highest in 2011, but substantially lower than in 08 and 09.

Basically some upside risk articles would not hurt. At the same time the disclaimer says what it says so if fools trade off these bearish articles then they deserve what they get. All in all I agree with the message. The system is fucked up but the ponzi can stay alive longer than many will stay solvent.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:58 | 1420269 hambone
hambone's picture

Basically some upside risk articles would not hurt.

Really!!!  Are you fucking kidding me???  A universe of upside risk articles, websites, TV shows, etc. and you want ZH to sell you more sand at the beach???  Maybe every comment should start w/ a big booyahhhh from...

ZH is the scary, dark cave most will not venture into...and you want to add a lighting system, build some ramps to make it wheel chair accessible, and maybe add a concession stand.  Uggghhhhh.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:35 | 1420274 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

A few replies then:

  • The Baltic Index has been at 1400, lower than the beginning of the year, just off all time lows, and at the low end of a multi-year secular cycle. If it were to rise, we will report, fear not.
  • "US car sales dip in June as confidence fades" Source: FT. In case clicking proves problematic, June SAAR is between 11.4 and 11.7 on expectations of 12.0. Can you please provide a link to where car sales are said to be "blowing out" expectations?
  • The Euro credit spreads in 2008 and 2009 did not have the explicit backing of $1 trillion in ECB funding. Furthermore the relevant metric is never the absolute level, but the rate and percentage change from trendline, as any given prevailing level is always arbed on both sides with massive amounts of levered bets. If general rates are lower now than in 2008 it means a far smaller change has vastly more profound implications.

Does that answer your questions?

As for presenting the upside risk, you can get that at your first propaganda outlet, which completely ignores the facts beneath the surface, as the one and only prerogative is to get sheep into Bernie Madoff Securities version 2, also known as the S&P.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:11 | 1420328 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

U.S. light-vehicle sales totaled 1,049,220 in June - a slim 2.8% increase in daily sales that dropped the seasonally adjusted annual rate to a 12-month low of 11.4 million units. Analysts had looked for June sales to equal or better May’s 11.8 million unit SAAR.

 

Unlike May’s dip below trend, which was largely attributable to Japanese auto makers’ inventory shortages, June’s results seemed to indicate an industry-wide slowdown.

 

Daily sales for June (over 26 selling days, one more than year-ago) were down 8.5% from May (24 selling days), the biggest single-month DSR drop since January, and the biggest May-to-June drop since 2007.

http://blog.wardsauto.com/countingcars/2011/07/01/light-vehicle-saar-fal...

 

I take back the auto sales blowing out expectations statement.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:22 | 1420545 magis00
magis00's picture

Props for intellectual honesty.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:35 | 1420276 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Why would you possible assume people here on ZH are shorting the market? Is it because of the tone of the blog and the anger in the comment section? So if someone is angry about the PONZI and manipulation then it stands to reason that they must be short?

Based upon what I have read over the last 2 years very few have remained short if they ever were. A majority have publicly declared they are out of the market entirely and/or they only own physical PMs and/or PM miners and paper PM shares. A very small minority publicly state they are long only and a larger minority state they play the ups and downs. I rarely read of anyone who states they are permanently short the market.

I suspect we are hearing your confirmation bias confirming your long only position. Or maybe you are saying this to wash away your own inner guilt for profiting from the PONZI rather than resisting it? Who knows what your true motives are, but to assume others are short is ridiculous.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:57 | 1420302 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

I suspect we are hearing your confirmation bias confirming your long only position. Or maybe you are saying this to wash away your own inner guilt for profiting from the PONZI rather than resisting it?

 

LOL. For the record I own no stocks. In fact, I own a good 500 oz of silver and 6 kruggerands. I have 15k in cash and 6k in a trading account. Me and my wife just started working 6 months ago and are scrambling to save as much as we can before things get even more difficult.

 

The funny thing is I went long TNA at the market bottom and sold a few months later because of the california bar exam (stress made me freak out and sell). So your assumptions about me are terribly incorrect.

 

And wrt people getting burned on their shorts, read the short sqeeze massacre thread.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:18 | 1420334 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I made no assumptions about you. I started off by saying I suspect, an admission that I don't know for certain. This is not an assumption, but an admission of uncertainty. I then ask a direct question (hint: it ends in a question mark) and then I go on to say "who knows what your motives are" which is once again a public admission that I don't know.

But you still didn't address my premise, that you are assuming people here on ZH are short. Why are you assuming this? Is it your inexperience as an investor or trader? Do you assume people invest based upon the tone and tenor of the blog they follow? That's what an inexperienced investor often does. I see it all the time in my inexperienced clients. One thread (short squeeze) is all it takes for you to form an opinion?

Notice that I am again asking questions of you.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:33 | 1420358 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

But you still didn't address my premise, that you are assuming people here on ZH are short. Why are you assuming this? Is it your inexperience as an investor or trader?

 

I assume that SOME people are short because I constantly read comments where people state they are short. I've been following ZH around the time of the Chrysler ch 11. From that time, what I've gleaned is that ZH readers are either (a) in PM, (b) all cash or combo PM, (c) out of the market, or (d) SHORT the market. SubprimeJD is my newest username the original is greatdepressiontrader.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:27 | 1420382 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is your initial premise.

For everyone that shorted the weimar rally you got what you deserve.

Since you do not explicitly state a time frame other than the "weimar rally" the presumed time frame is over two years since the S&P "weimar rally" you allude to started in March of 2009.

So when someone says they are short are you assuming they have been short the entire two plus years? I ask because you again imply it by not stating a specific time frame. You simply say they deserve what they got for shorting.

When someone says they are "short", if I don't know them I would assume they are short for a limited time frame because of the obvious upward momentum. If I know them by their history of comments I will have a better idea of the time frame they are talking about.

To assume if someone says they are short that they have been short for two plus years is an inexperienced investor's mistake and a very poor assumption. I don't think anyone can tolerate the emotional and financial pain of two plus years of continuous losses without leaving the market or going long to stop the pain. So why would you assume people have shorted the wiener rally?

Now I will make an assumption. It sounds to me like you are enjoying your perception or belief that someone is in emotional and financial pain. Why else then would you say a person deserves the losses you assume they have taken?

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 09:01 | 1421103 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

"We got both kinds of music, country AND western!"

Most people on ZH have long and short positions hedged with PM's and wrapped in bacon.

I've been long LVLT (and so should you be) for months, posted about it here and even recommended it to someone who got creamed a couple months ago.  Had they taken the trade they would have made a little sweet mula.

The real mystery is why you don't become a contributor if you wish to see more coverage of a select bias or position, asset class, or...  anything but being sore.

I can't help but think most [commenters] don't do their own homework...

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 13:54 | 1421319 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

What I've been getting is that people are using long and short as slang in many cases.  For my part, I've got mixed blue-chips and PM, with almost no cash.  

If you want an upside risk, look for affordable luxuries.  When people don't have the money for a new Lexus, they tend to get a new car stereo instead.  If they can't buy a home, they can probably still get a tricked-out iPhone.  Relatively cheap "status" items like that did very well in Argentina, from what I understand.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:32 | 1420363 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

Here I am with the old account.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:53 | 1420396 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Here I am with an old account, read every single article on the main page, and don't fit into a-d above. I can sympathize with your thought process, but you oversimplify the audience. Many of us have been successfully trading in zero sum markets for three decades or more. We know how to separate reality from market direction, but still want to be educated re what's really going on so as to not lose sight of the big picture. And that is where zh provides an unequaled service.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:15 | 1420431 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It doesn't look like an "old" account to me. You still use it to post comments as recently as a couple of days ago.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:53 | 1420599 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

It is an "old" account you self righteous arrogant prick. I barely post from that name and in fact barely post from this name either.

 

It appears that my one sentence where I said "those who lost shorting the weimar rally deserve their losses" has irked your nerves CD. Did you lose your ass on some puts CD? And for clarification I was talking from the near term low of 1262. ZH was going on and on about liquidity shortages, EUR contagion and falling ISM data. But not one word about the recent INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS formation that appeared right before the recent rally. I swear I was sitting at work ready to post about it but I got distracted. June 10 close of 1270 (left shoulder), June 15 1265 (head) and June 24 @ 1268 (left shoulder). Technicals are not full proof but the formation was there and ZH should have at least pointed it to some of its lemming readers. Cuz yes CD groupthink occurs here just as it does on CNBC and all the other places of congregation.

 

And no I dont get happy or feel satisfied when people lose on a trade or a gamble. But when you make trades on leverage and lose then in the end you deserve what you get. Putting it simply, you reap what you sow.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:36 | 1420709 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Too funny. Now you're back peddling real fast. So it was a weimar rally from 1262? You would use the term weimar rally to describe a short covering rally of several days? The word weimar is widely known to describe the process of destroying a currency over several years, not a 5 day rally that had nothing to do with money printing and everything to do with manipulation and HFT trading. I don't give a shit what you meant to say or what you almost posted. You opened your mouth and I called you on it.

BTW your posting history, just like mine, is available for anyone to see so maybe we need to define 'barely' because you are posting around one comment a day on the JD account and a bit less on the other "old" account. And you are using both accounts actively. Nothing wrong with that since it's part of the rules. But I went back and read several of your comments from both accounts and you like to play games and you like to talk shit. Since your ID and your comment history are your only record of your history here on ZH you can claim all you want, but if your record and your words don't match or back each other up your ass is hanging in the wind.

What I am calling you on is your arrogant attitude from the very beginning, your sweeping generalities regarding people here on ZH, your gloating over other peoples perceived misery and your bullshit facts such as your comment regarding auto sales, which you clearly pulled out of your ass. How the fuck do you know anyone here used leverage and lost big? And yet you pull this idea out of the thin air to taunt people. Real classy counselor, real classy. You are an amateur who just graduated, passed the bar and are so full of yourself it's flowing out of your ears. And it shows to such a stinking degree even Tyler picked you up on it and took you on.

But what triggered me most of all was your attempt to use intellectual bullshit spewing to cover your tracks when challenged. If your going to kick shit around ZH you'd better be ready to back it up. The problem here is that you don't like being challenged, first by Tyler and then by me. You fucking JD ego just won't tolerate being questioned. How dare I challenge you.

This is Fight Club counsler. Your JD is worthless here. Put up or shut the fuck up. You want to talk shit? Then you'd better be ready to take some in return.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 01:22 | 1420822 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

"BTW your posting history, just like mine, is available for anyone to see so maybe we need to define 'barely' because you are posting around one comment a day on the JD account and a bit less on the other "old" account"

Wrong again oh wise one. I post once a week if that.

"You are an amateur who just graduated, passed the bar and are so full of yourself it's flowing out of your ears"

I literally LOLed at this while at dinner. Full of myself? Please. I'm a fucking third tier shitlawyer bottom feeding personal injury attorney. The only reason I changed the name to "subprime JD" is because my blog is subprimejd.blogspot.com. Go take a look sometime and you will see I link to ZH, WB7, and Chrismartenson. You think you could punk me around because you have contributor status CD? Well I could give a fuck about that. It is YOUR EGO sir, your arrogance, YOUR inability to handle anyone intellectually challenging your beloved ZH and YOU for that matter. ZH is my number one site and has been since the weimar rally began in 2009. However, Im simply pointing out that the bearish bias is leading SOME readers to lose their ass. And if in fact the tylers are acting as leaders for this group, and in some aspect they are, then they have a DUTY to warn of UPSIDE risk.

Here are some examples just from today:

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by The Fonz
on Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:25
#1420542

I would have to agree in this instance with the fellow above. I was too drawn in by ZH's negative outlook. Tyler only makes one mistake consistently, his timing is too early, and he does not communicate this in his efforts to destroy the banks. I see many people with what I have come to call a "will for the market" where a person hopes and believes something that may or may not be correct but fumbles the timing due the bias naturally filtering out the counterstory. Also Reggie has that problem, and so did Turd. So did I.  Time to learn a hard lesson, fortunately lessons this expensive STICK.

by Frankie Carbone
on Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:34
#1419902

 

I got anihillated this week. My DXD bloc of options just got blown out of the fucking water. 

So bad that I'm not going to try to salvage the pennies on the dollar that they're worth. I figure it's "pray for a miracle time", hoping that a retracement will bring up their delta value enough where I can settle with a 40-50% loss. 

I never in my wildest dreams expected the market to wipe out 2 months worth of losses (or gains for my situation) in a mere 5 days. 

Someone riddle me this: Why is the market taking the stairs down and the nitro powered elevator up? This defies the history of the markets. Why are folks blowing their loads over shitty economic news? 

I am the pigeon that I rail against. I truly thought that having the fundementals on my side would result in a winning trade. 

I'm done. This retail trader is out. 

 

 

 

by n00b tube
on Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:46
#1419932

 

I remain 100% short SPY and will not cover at a near 90% loss. The faster and higher S&P spikes, the more violent the pullback will be. My JUL11 options may expire worthless, but that's moot at this point; I'm already well beyond the point of no return. I dare the markets to keep rallying. Let the fucktarded sheeple panic into the top. Bonds into equities? HERP DERP

 

 

Quit being such a fucking fundamentalist. It is people like YOU with YOUR attitude that corrupted the churches in the first place. Your dogmatic attitude and complete inability to handle constructive criticism of yourself or this site do nothing to edify this site, but rather, to pervert it.

 

How fitting that my first ever ZH battle is with you CD, the wise shaman of ZH. I'm too busy to pick fights on the internet, I battle with clients, defense attorneys and adjusters all day long. But the way you went after me over ONE sentence is indicative of your own lust for power and pride of authority.

 

Shame on you CD.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 07:09 | 1421054 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Quit being such a fucking fundamentalist. It is people like YOU with YOUR attitude that corrupted the churches in the first place. Your dogmatic attitude and complete inability to handle constructive criticism of yourself or this site do nothing to edify this site, but rather, to pervert it.

I see we have now progressed to babbling idiot. The church? Corrupted the churches? Edify this site? Really?

Too pathetic to reply any further.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 11:12 | 1421165 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Of course you won't reply. But to give you a little bit of insight on the "church" reference: I'm not sure you have noticied but ZH is a place for TRUTH. In a world full of lies, obfuscations, adjustments and manipulations, emerges this website that attempts to shine some light on all this darkness. ZH has educated at least tens of thousands of people with the truth. And the best part about it is that its all free. Those who want to donate can while those who cannot afford to can still come here and learn, congregate and discuss with others. My analogizing this site with the "church" has to do with the truth and content that is being provided here. Haven't you noticed that people flock here for the TRUTH? Even your username supports my analogy. "Cognitive Dissonance" has to do with people lying to themselves, right? Your articles mainly discuss the self deception that many people in the world engage in. You seek that people look deeper inside their "minds" I say "souls" and to allow themselves to see the truth for what it is. Hence my church reference.

In addition, you have taken it upon yourself to fill the "priest" or spiritual guide on this place, evidenced by your lengthy psychological articles (psyche means soul in greek sir). But the way you attacked me because of one sentence and a bit of critisism is indicative of how you went from priest to pharisee. Ive never seen you attack anyone on this site as viciously as you attacked me.You wanted "facts" to back me up and I provided 3 different readers that got burned due to their choice of betting short with leverage partially based on the overly bearish tone of the author. Your response was to dismiss me due to one chruch reference, which I think given the circumstances, is appropriate.

 

Oh, and to edify means to build up: Our English word “edify” comes from the same root as edifice. An edifice is a building. An edifice has been built up. When you edify a person you build them up.

 

Peace

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 03:12 | 1420876 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

This is Fight Club counsler....  Put up or shut the fuck up. You want to talk shit? Then you'd better be ready to take some in return...

duly noted. 


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 03:32 | 1420879 Highrev
Highrev's picture

CD wins by KO.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:56 | 1421167 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

No KO Highrev. Read my latest response.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 13:57 | 1421324 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Right,  CD wins by TKO.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:18 | 1420437 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

"LOL. For the record I own no stocks. In fact, I own a good 500 oz of silver and 6 kruggerands. I have 15k in cash and 6k in a trading account. Me and my wife just started working 6 months ago and are scrambling to save as much as we can before things get even more difficult."

Oops, looks like you got me there and I must appologize.  Still, you did phrase that in perma bull lingo, but my bad.

I still disagree that ZH slants the news to the bear side.  You must be excused for thinking so, but ZH fills a much needed gap.  The lollypop unicorn side is already covered by the MSM.  Occasionally, there are bullish articles, but usually such information is already covered by thousands upon thousands of asshats in the MSM, so what's the point of rehashing it here?

Oh, I get it.  You are even more paranoid than I, right?  You know that the conspiracy goes so deep, and is so persuasive, that even the conspiracy nuts are part of the plan, so that you know, that I know, that you know, which cup is poisoned, right?  (feeble attempt at humor)

Peace

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:27 | 1420439 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

double post (sry)

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:49 | 1420387 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

France was supposed to pull everybody out of the global recession after WWI.  Unicorn fairy tales didn't work out so well then either.

Nice chart.  Using the same methodology, my beer gut should sink the continent by the end of the decade.

Bottom's up

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:18 | 1420621 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

"Lastly, America was supposed to pull the world out of the economic collapse in late January and February as well."

What, you mean this second Recovery Summer has been a big charade?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:11 | 1420217 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Look a bull with no horns! lol

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:21 | 1420242 pat53
pat53's picture

Right on bro, if you traded based on what you read here, you'd have been losing money for 2 years, that is if you have any left by now !!?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:30 | 1420256 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

 I love everyone on this board even though im a long. I wish everyone a happy 4th even if we are doomed next week  Per Sheepdawg.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:32 | 1420262 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

ZH has had good calls on the metals. But the negative bias on stocks has not gone well for some readers.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:41 | 1420290 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

It is probably not ironic then that Markopolos who called out the Madoff ponzi for years was never taken seriously by anyone, especially not the SEC, nor any of the private investors he did contact. After all - it was profitable for month after month, without fail. Who didn't want to be part of that club, right?

We wonder if, after losing everything, those same investors would agree now that he may have been on to something.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:57 | 1420311 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Is the US bond market going to go through a world of pain? You bet. The question is how loooong will it take. The tone of the articles on ZH give it the appearance that the end is coming soon. The reality is that NO ONE KNOWS when this will happen. In addition, you know full well that the powers that be can kick the can for a long long time. Means testing on SS, Medicare is coming. This will add a few more years wrt the unfunded liabilities.

 

ZH is great and I read it every single day, numerous times a day. But to maintain some credibility you have to warn of upside risk. And im not talking CNBC nonsense upside risk but HFT ALGO risk. I've noticed that as of late you guys have picked it up a bit. The article on HFT front running the PMI was spectacular. Thats what I mean by posting about upside risk.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:03 | 1420325 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Do you understand what happens to the stock market in hyperinflation?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:19 | 1420343 xamax
xamax's picture

Yes, Gold outperforms stocks by 1000:1 (this was the number in Weimar).

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:30 | 1420352 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

zimbabwe.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:11 | 1420432 GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

This one could be much worse then even Wiemar and its just a matter of time. The US, Western Europe, Japan etc... are the most pampered and thoroughly dependant societies in the history of mankind. Even into the 40's most food was grown locally and manufactoring regional. Now the average US meal comes from 1200 miles away. How long would NYC survive even the shortest food or fuel supply disruptions? Walmart and Target employees get trampled every couple years for Xbox or Nintendo Wii's at Xmas sales, it doesn't take much to see what people that have never been hungry are capable of doing to one other. 

This is f'd up but our best hope is for a conventional WWIII. We are still geographically protected by two oceans and could rebuild again. Plus that way we could find some unity instead of canabilizing ourselves in the dark. Good luck and Happy Independence Day.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:47 | 1420489 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Yeah right.  Whoever starts losing 'conventional' WWIII will resort to the nukes.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:13 | 1420680 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

That is by far the best avatar I have ever seen on ZH. Congrats.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:29 | 1420467 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I do, it's called cannibalism.

I just spent another $300 bucks at the supermarket today to ally my concerns about a globalized economy where there are millions of people in coastal cities relying upon everything going exactly as planned.  My reading of history is that doesn't work out very well in the long run.

I really don't care what the stock market does anymore.  That's what brought me here, but paper has become irrelevant.  You either prepare for when the lies run up against reality, or you don't.  I did.

 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:26 | 1420353 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In addition, you know full well that the powers that be can kick the can for a long long time.

Not exactly. It is possible for the can to be kicked down the road for a long time but there is no certainty. In fact it has already been kicked down the road for a very long time. What they can do with absolute certainty is try to kick it down the road for a long time. However, it is entirely up to the increasingly restless and nervous herd to agree to the can kicking by going along with it either by active participation or passive acceptance.

But the entire system depends upon confidence which can only be artificially manufactured for so long. Have you ever been around a herd of cattle or bison that are spooked? I have on two occasions. When they finally bolt and change directions it is both breath taking and extremely frightening. And there is no way to protect yourself if you are on the wrong side of the turn. And there is no right side since your very lively hood and capacity to earn a living is dependent upon the greater herd, not your own capacity and capability.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 21:53 | 1421945 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

But to maintain some credibility you have to warn of upside risk.

Huh? All this place needs to do to maintain its credibility is to report the facts, I'll decide what's risk (for me) and what's not.

 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:20 | 1420341 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Well said, Tyler

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1420375 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Let me help....here's something that has worked well for me in keeping a balanced view of the market: I never read ZH unless I have Larry Crudlow dialed up to about 8 on my head phones....somewhere in between lies the middle path to riches and prosperity which we all seek.

The only down side I have perceived is that one has homicidal thoughts after about 10 minutes of this....

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 00:35 | 1420810 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"4 out of the 5 voices in my head say:  'Don't Shoot!'" :>D

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:06 | 1420746 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

If you trade upon what you read in any one place, g'luck to ya.  For proles like me without a friggin' Bloomberg terminal, an 'office' at Pound & Pence, or a mole at Blackrock, ZH has been a helluva godsend.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:04 | 1420416 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

"A genius that doesn't question his sources of information,

is right back with the idiots,

and worse off than the ignorant."

 

- Smiddywesson 

Coined on 7/1/2011 in response to your obvious intelligence and utter foolishness.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:49 | 1420167 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

rally fizzles for both CNX infra and  IT::::::

 

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:50 | 1420170 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Hopeium all around! It's on me!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:04 | 1420201 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

+LOL+

howzabout this for a fukin Haha?  St. Louis Fed study says QE devalued dollar by 6.5 to 11 percent

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:13 | 1420226 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Comfuckintastic! And a pic of Marissa Miller!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:31 | 1420474 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Channeling McBags?  (I do that too...)

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:17 | 1420234 oogs66
oogs66's picture

abby cohen called, she wants her ruler back

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:33 | 1420357 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

No, she uses a French curve, permits that hokey stick effect...straight lines are for sissies.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:04 | 1420315 fuu
fuu's picture

Some nice Friday humor into the weekend: http://www.ketv.com/r/28421608/detail.html

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:26 | 1420327 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Who was that kid guest on CNBC who predicted DOW 20K.....Alt...something ! He has a blog ! Anyway, as I suggested the other day, we believe the Fed meddles in every market, but we would never accuse them of buying and selling stocks ? If they can't take the metals down any further, they punish the metals bidding up stocks ! You can't trust them......er....you can trust them to take more and more drastic measures to keep the PMs in disfavor ! They are in a death struggle for their bureaucratic way of life ! They are creating more credit than we ever dreamed ! Don't underestimate their evil, desperate ways ! Monedas 2011 The rectum is your blood supply's drinking fountain ! Remember those Western movies where they would put mud in their bandanas and try to wring out a few drops of water ? We spend billions on bottled water......but your dog and your blood supply prefer drinking out of the toilet ! Practice safe anal sex ! Monedas' 4th of July message......what is the world coming to ?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:08 | 1420329 Chip
Chip's picture

Laszlo and the boys are having a pretty good year so far you have to admit.

Why is a forecast for SPX 2500 so much more flawed logic than some of the calls for Dow 5000, etc we see among the doomers on ZH?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:31 | 1420361 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"Laszlo and the boys are having a pretty good year so far....that is what makes me nervous

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:08 | 1420331 Highrev
Highrev's picture

To follow up on a my comment from last Tuesday. ( http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-%E2%80%9Cfat%E2%80%9D-tails#... )

To be very honest, I’m surprised by the strength of this rally. Real sellers disappeared and those left on the offer mercilessly raised that offer all week, with the Dow Transports getting back to closing highs! There are no short setups left – they’re all busted (technically, for those positions, they were either stopped out or will be closed as close to breakeven as possible on a pullback). The expectation would be for a pullback sometime soon, perhaps back to the necklines of the double bottom and inverted head and shoulder reversal patterns we have rallied off of. If volatility stays high, it just might be lightening fast, and very scary to buy.

Instead of a pullback, it could also be a lightening fast drop in resumption of the previous downtrend of the last couple of months.

Okay, so what’ll it be? A quick pullback to BTFD? Or a must hold short from current levels?

Let’s go out longer term and think about this rally being the resumption of the previous multi-year uptrend. I think that if we can put probabilities on that, it’ll help with the first question. Is the current rally a continuation of the previous trend, or a “corrective” trap in a larger downtrend that still hasn’t finished (in this case we would be talking about a continuation lower of the downtrend of the last couple of months after this “pop” higher).

Here’s how EWI describes a wave 2.

Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the advancement up to that time is eroded away by the time it ends. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bull market is back to stay.

B, D, and X waves can be very similar in nature.

Put another way, THEY PRETEND TO RENEW THE PREVIOUS TREND, but it’s a sucker’s rally.

BUT, it really could be a 3, C, E or Y, in which case the bears get raped as the market REALLY DOES RESUME THE FORMER TREND.

How do you know whether it’s one or the other, a head fake, or a real continuation?

Elliott Wave rules are too complex to explain all the possibilities in this commentary, but by no means are they overwhelming and I recommend everyone be familiar them. (I also recommend the many other non-EW TA tools available to us that are indispensable in developing a complete and comprehensive analysis.)

My main point here is that if this rally is really the beginning of a continuation of the previous trend, it’s getting off to a smashing start, but, if not, it would then be a picture perfect bull trap.

A smashing start, or a picture perfect bull trap?

In my opinion, this is the critical question to answer in coming trading sessions. (At this point it’s almost impossible to say, but if you’re thinking it might be spectacular one way or the other, a just-for-fun options strangle might not be a bad idea.)

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:25 | 1420351 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Have a happy Fourth, all!

And for the record, the market is simply pricing in bailouts ie monetary expansion. Nothing about the economy. It has completely decoupled from discounting growth and now discounts the odds of survival of the TBTF through bailouts (including the indirect kind through Greece and QE3).

The market is now fully expecting that Spain, Portugal, and Italy will join the hit parade in the future. That's it. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:37 | 1420356 Monedas
Monedas's picture

So if the Greek bailout was good for the DOW......Spain, Portugal and Italy mean DOW 20K ? You've got to think outside the box ! Monedas 2011 Yes,  Greek rectums ! Rectum in Latin means straight up from the anus to the sigmoid flexure .....for you chartists !

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:39 | 1420369 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...yes, as has happened before, bad news is good news since QE? is assured, that, and the market had a few shorts to feed off of these last few days.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:02 | 1420401 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The reason the market dipped in May-June was anxiety over Greece, remember? 

And the reason for that anxiety is this: if the central bankers cut the money spigot down then all the banks are f***ed. Hence liquidity was being pulled out of the stock market. 

As soon as the news on Greece turned, so did the market. But nested within the Greece news in the last few weeks were positive indications that the US debt ceiling will be raised, and that QE3 is closer to being a done deal with the economy near stall speed (along with the rest of the global economies).

Now the TBTFs are betting on continued bailouts that won't threaten their continued survival. They are the main and most substantial players in the market. Very little actual investor money. 

Of course if the political climate sours on bailouts, the market will be in the neighborhood of zero

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:41 | 1420483 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The markets are rallying...

Then again, the roulette wheel down at Harrah's is rumored to be on a run, favoring those who bet on the black...

Missing out on the former makes us simians feel pain, because we hate to miss out on the bannanas...

But missing out on the latter doesn't.

Hmmm, strange.  Hey, ya know, I think I'll sit this one out no matter how much money is made in front of the steamroller.  I really don't care if some idiot calls me a perma-bear.  There is easier money on the horizon than participating in this psychotic representation of a market.

 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:58 | 1420503 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

IBD now calling it "Uptrend Resumes", whatever that means.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1420534 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

What market?

The Govt. with the printing press and it's owners JPM , Goldman and gang on one side and the gullibles on the other!

When they can falsify, aid and abet accounting fraud there is no market either.

Buffet, Soros and pals are the insiders in the system who actually should be behind bars.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:21 | 1420544 Jones79
Jones79's picture

this reminds of the more than one step ahead forecasts eveiws spits out

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:24 | 1420551 taca
taca's picture

All of our handbags are priced between wholesale fashion jewelry with a money back guarantee if you are not 100% satisfied with your purchase. We also offer you FREE UPS Ground shipping on all orders over

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 05:19 | 1421023 saulysw
saulysw's picture

SPAM alert.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:23 | 1420631 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

After a rip roaring 6.2% rally in the NDX over the week the bears would be licking their wounds. Took the market 7 weeks to trickle down about 8% in an glacier escalator ride. And just one week to take back more then 75% in an rocket escalator ripping of the faces of the bears spread on many continents who were expecting a market collapse due POMO closing. And egged on by ZH liquidity freezing commentary bears they loaded up on silver, which collapsed about 3% today. But not a peep about it on ZH boards that gets a hard on when silver goes up a percent or so.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:36 | 1420640 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

some of us zh afficianados

realize that TD is a better critic than prognosticator,

and so we loaded up on TMV, TBT, and TBF instead of silver ....

 

some trades, even in a manipulated market,  are just too, too obvious ....

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:18 | 1420682 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

Or Occam's razor:

 

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"

"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."

"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

. . .or in the only form that takes its own advice. . .
"Keep things simple!"

 

http://www.desy.de/user/projects/Physics/General/occam.html


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:30 | 1420707 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Occam's razor is crap.

The simplest explanation/solution is a matter of opinion.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 07:19 | 1421059 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Since DOW/SP500 is now EXTREMELY overbought, the reaction next week should result in a significant retracement.

S&P500 daily charts show updated rising wedge and possible head and shoulders pattern with target of 1,150 when confirmed.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 19:05 | 1421695 Bear
Bear's picture

I am tired of this technical analysis ... every head and shoulders leads to a new appendage ... every rising wedge results in a upside breakout. Mr. Manipulation looks for these just to fade the Bear.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!