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Frontrunning:
- Developing: UBS to produce 4,450 names as part of settlement
- UK Government swaps rise after Cameron warns of default risk (Bloomberg)
- Warren Buffett: The Greenback Effect (NYT)
- Scholes, Merton call for better bank-asset data (Bloomberg)
- What drives market prices? The valuation vs momentum dichotomy (Value Expectations)
- California to get $1.5 billion loan from JP Morgan (LA Times), China to provide equity tranche to complete LBO
- What's causing the slow motion commercial real estate crash? (Daily Finance)
- Many Americans see stimulus costs, not benefits (Gallup)
- Tishman faces office downturn, portfolio of largest Washington offices in default (WSJ)
- Taking Wall Street advice in rally means owing $6,000 (Bloomberg)
- Pimco says dollar to weaken as reserve status ends (Bloomberg)
- Finland needs urgent steps to save paper jobs, Stora chief says (Bloomberg)
- Reluctant shoppers hold back recovery (WSJ)
- Collateral damage from cash for clunkers (Fundmastery)
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Sovereign default? Say it ain't so!!
LOL at the WSJ "Reluctant shoppers hold back recovery" headline ... why don't they just come right and say it:
"Legions of unemployed mental-recession proponents blocking economic recovery".
With all due respect, Buffet may be good at finding value companies, but he does not understand the economics that well.Check this out:
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
UK Government swaps rise after Cameron warns of default risk
?????? tha phuck
didn't Northern Rock suspend its debt payment just yesterday; that could be an indicator; but one question; what happens with continental Europe if UK defaults ?
If the UK is in this state perhaps that sheds more light on the recent Sweedbank rights offering. I would wonder what this will do to the PIIGS and their funding position.
Swedbank did a rights offering because of the Baltic states, i have no idea how would ContEur behave if UK goes bust; but i know Ireland would implode due to all the trading ties; and all other ties with the UK.
You read the Taleb letter! Don't ignore Baltic dry dock...We also bailout Bank of Ireland in the initial Tarp!!!
Once the fad
Permeates
It's hip to care
Hip to hate it
The saving grace of the CRE space is multi-family property?
Those folks have been doing too much crack.
interesting call on the USD by PIMCO. i recall Bill Gross a few years back asked the question: "what happens when china no longer wants to own USD?". seems that "possible" moment of reckoning is not too far off. i imagine china may be slowly stepping out, not sure though. as far the USD losing value with deflation leaks all over and auctions planned as far as the calendar can see? it makes for a fine way for the fed to test and probe the levels of inflation, deflation, and expected cost of capital, etc every two weeks or so.
My hunch is that China has stopped buying Treasuries because it is flat broke. That economy is coming apart at the seams. The foreign capital that jumped in will have to come out. The dollar and the yen are the most likely beneficiaries.
Long term the dollar has problems but short term, if we see a global correction, there isn't another option. The reserve currency will strengthen.
Your comments may have solidified my thoughts on the PIMCO article.
This 'gov't agency' comes out and says the US dollar is dying (which I agree). BUt in the short term I wouldn't be shocked by a ramp up due to catastophe in other parts of the world.
My point is PIMCO comes out with a comment, seemingly against their book, but the point is to get the shorts to pile in, so that when the safety trade happens again, all those un-american shorts will be killed.
Its just like Dennis Gartman and the gold cartel. You know its time to sell gold when Dennis is all over the tube saying he hates to buy gold, but the charts tell him to. What happens EVERY time in the next couple days?
Gold gets hammered, Dennis says I was wrong, and all the sheeple bail, developing a mistrust of the one thing they should be buying and holding.
Ignore most pundits, they all have an agaenda, and it won't be the same as yours.
Nice work PIMCO, this article shoul dget you a few more lucrative gov't contracts.
if UK debt gets wrecked and seeps into euroland, would that not only increase the value of the USD relative euro? y'all think the cash and carry trade will pick up between the yen and USD where the USD becomes the next bitch to use and abuse for borrowing?
Finland, Finland, Finland ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgTyVkpJY3g
stupid cash for clunkers is just like mfgr rebates, once the incentive goes away watch out, buyers leave the picture because they know the rebate will come back at some point. Fixating on price as a solution is a mistake, and the additional rebate on CfC sets a new standard for discounting.
While I agree the US dollar will ultimately tank further, the UUP is showing an interesting divergence between price and the MACD on the daily chart...We might see a repeat of last year's Q4 dollar rally this year.
Americans: Serfs Ruled by Oligarchs
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
Have a look at economic policy. It is being run for the benefit of large financial concerns, such as Goldman Sachs.
It was the banks, not the millions of Americans who have lost homes, jobs, health insurance, and pensions, that received $700 billion in TARP funds. The banks used this gift of capital to make more profits. In the middle of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, Goldman Sachs announced record second quarter profits and large six-figure bonuses for every employee.
American economy at all- it might force the US to actually manufacture and solidify its industrial base again which, you know, actually does something valuable
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
What the hell is Warren Buffet saying (paraphrasing); "Objectively looking at what the government is doing with the economy, we can draw the conclusion that this will cause even greater problems in the future, but since we have problems now -- it's ok to keep printing money." ?!
With all due respect, Buffet may be good at finding value companies, but he does not understand the economics that well.Check this out:
Buffett emphasized the non-productive aspect of a gold standard for the USD in 1998 at Harvard:
“ It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."Wow. And what would Martians think about the value/point of his GS Preferred Shares? His father actually understood inflation, too bad Warren never really understood it as well as his pops.
Now he likes bailouts...go check out his stakes in all the financials he owned prior to the bailouts.....and how they benefited ...everyone talks out of 2 sides of their mouths especially where money is concerned.
Warren like PIMCo is in deep with the government. Why else would the TREASURY department be going to him over the weekend and asking to give some billlions to GS?
Warren, make it look like a private cash infusion and we'll make sure Wells and others are saved. Also we will make sure the Down Chemical, rohm and Haas deal goes through, so you can keep your profits.
IS it any different this time? Those with money and power are in cahoots, for themselves, not Joe6p. Shocking, I know.
LOL.Nice; INDU and SPX managed to erase yesterdays gain in about 45 sec.
So the comment by Cameron really knocked the socks out of Cable today. Very good, keep it coming Tories. As I mentioned yesterday and the day before to anyone reading the "Lets Short Some Dollars" and "VIX is Screaming" post, Cable had come to an interesting and well tested resistance point of circa 1.6550.
That was definitely a good moment for shorters yesterday evening. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY both down the tanks, especially the latter since China took a dip in the red today Asian session. Next stop circa 152.50 on GBP/JPY and circa 1.6350 on GBP/USD.
PS. I would also like to apologise to rigger mortice, Andy and Cheeky for not being able to post the daily briefings in the last two days. Had very busy mornings. Back to schedule from tomorrow.
good call on the currencies Ray, and no problem with the updates; business is business
Thank you for your support Andy, Cheeky, Rigger Mortice. Very much appreciated.
Cheeky - I just closed out the GBP/JPY position because that US morning pattern seems to be taking hold. I shall wait for a better opportunity when it re-opens itself. Cable is not always subject to the same vagaries, so that's a wait and see approach.
odd times we live in
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
glad to hear it raymond.
you'd be amazed how expectant people get when they've bought a baseball cap and a mug.
I dread to think of the time it takes but is much appreciated.
RDN leading the way up, +2.6% right now...
Maaan, it was bad enough when Chase opened up branches all over the place to replace Wamu. Chase is squeezing every cent out of this state via usurious credit card rates, general thievery, and bullshit mortgage 'mod' fraud, (I hope you thieving motherfuckers are reading this and realize that GS isn't the only one that's on the hit list in case of revolution). I can see where this is going. . .
Meanwhile, bonds are rocketing.
Investors once again are fleeing risk and clamoring for U.S. Confetti
this is like watching a deranged kid playing with a yo-yo while his parents are trapped in a burning house. but, im glad my Asia shorts did an awesome job for the past week.
Cheeky, those damn Asian shorts of yours... when you settling in Bermuda? :-)
How are you taking those positions, via Options or otherwise?
yep. i put a time/percentage limit with my broker; he does the rest. i mainly focus on financials, oil, CRE developers and industrial components. I've been riding the Asian wave for couple of years know, and it did me good. But its so goddamn volatile. when i began i took some losses and then learned to put time/percentage stops to minimize them. Im not greedy so every up move is a good move, not matter how small it is.
Sounds like you played it well. Nice work.
Uncle Warren, using a fawning media to talk his book, as usual.
Buffett has disappointed me during this meltdown. After years of publicly sticking a thumb in Wall Street's eye via his shareholder letters, he has gotten in bed with Goldman Sachs. He pooh poohs the idea of minimum capital requirements for his large bank holding Wells Fargo because of their "earnings power".
His last NY Times Op-Ed piece in October encouraged investors to buy U.S. equities and said he was going to in his personal account, which is about 1% of his net worth. 99% of his net worth is in Berkshire Hathaway. Despite a 30% drop in U.S. stock prices AFTER Buffett wrote the October piece, Berkshire has been a net seller of U.S. equities and a net buyer of fixed income securities, both U.S. and foreign government bonds. Among his U.S. fixed income investments have been sweetheart deals with GE and Goldman Sachs, two beneficiaries of the U.S. government handouts Buffett has praised profusely.
Buffett has become part of the government/bankster cabal; perhaps he always was. I wish he'd just shut up.
Seconded. Uncle Warren is a businessman. He will get in bed with whoever's going to make money.
Buffett is a complete and utter FRAUD! He complains that his secretary pays a higher tax rate than him and the wealthy need to pay more in taxes and yet what does he do? SHIELDS as much of his money from taxes as possible. Can we say huge hypocrite in the extreme?
Listen Warren, absolutely nothing is stopping you from writing a check to the US Treasury for the additional taxes you think guys like you should be paying. Till you lead by example, shut the hell up on the subject!
If the market looks like it's about to go down, smash the dollar to pieces. Great policy until you can't afford your oil and nobody wants your debt.
The damn Pump Team kicked into full swing at the opening bell. They'll drive the S&P to 994 by the end of the day to paint the uptrend line.
They can't have a sudden downturn, they need the market to pull back gradually so they can dump all the crap they have bought on the unsuspecting investors. I won't be surprised at all if today ends up to the plus side.
You called it! You can tell by the market action. They just keep driving it, pushing, the GS HAL 9000 HFT just keeps inching the offers up and up and up till the predetermined "happy" spot is hit.
I swear I've seen this so many times.
Breaking out on Crude Oct 73.40. $3 gas should be good for consumers.
Thanks for the updates
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
The end of the article on PIMCO is crucial. Although the dollar may weaken, in total, as the lead reserve currency, what is going to take its place on a global scale?
Nothing.
Buffet shoulda spent his time looking for another company to buy or invest his money in with a Buffet-only guaranteed First Year Senior payout.
That I wasted 3 minutes of my life to read the Sage of Omaha's little lesson on inflation is regrettable.
wow... i never expected something so critical of the economy from Warren Buffett
I shall wait for a better opportunity when it re-opens itself. Cable is not always subject to the same vagaries, so that's a wait and see approach. ghd straighteners pandora jewellery Prom Dresses cartier jewellery