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Frontrunning: August 10

Tyler Durden's picture




 
  • Buffett Shortens Bond-Holding Duration After Inflation Warning (Bloomberg) - Twenty-one percent of holdings including Treasuries, municipal debt, foreign-government securities and corporate bonds were due in one year or less as of June 30, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said in a filing Aug. 6. That compares with 18 percent on March 31, and 16 percent at the end of last year’s second quarter.
  • No Need for New Fed Stimulus (WSJ) - When Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard suggested 11 days ago that the Fed beef up its "quantitative easing" to avoid a Japan-like deflation trap, he said he merely hoped to provoke debate. Well, he got that and more. Since then, incessant chatter that the Fed's Open Market Committee could announce new stimulus measures at its meeting on Tuesday has breathed life into both the stock and bond markets.
  • UK RICS House Price Balance for July -8% - lower than expected: UK Economic Fears Rise As House Prices Dip (FT) - House prices began to fall for the first time in a year in July as sellers rushed to put their properties on the market and buyers became harder to find and more cautious. After a year when the recovery in house prices surprised almost everyone and brought relief to Britain’s stretched banks, the return of a buyers’ market threatens to increase jitters in a fragile economy.
  • Fed Efforts to Spur Growth May Move Markets More Than Economy (Bloomberg) - “If they’re small scale, the direct effects are relatively small,” said Marvin Goodfriend, a former research director at the Richmond Fed. “But to the extent that they signal the Fed’s concerns and what direction they are, and the Fed’s willingness to take actions given the signal of their concerns, they could have big effects.”
  • Unemployment: What Would Reagan Do? (WSJ) - Friday's grim labor report is the latest confirmation that our economy
    is not recovering. A loss of 131,000 jobs and a stagnant 9.5%
    unemployment rate are bad enough. But a deeper look—at the little-known
    civilian employment-population ratio—shows how hard it's going to be to
    pull out of our crisis, and why the Obama administration's policies are
    unlikely to do the job.
  • China July Trade Surplus Surges as Imports Soften (BusinessWeek) - China’s trade surplus unexpectedly climbed to an 18-month high and exports grew to a record in July, adding pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to allow faster appreciation of the yuan. The gap surged 170 percent from a year earlier to $28.7 billion, the customs bureau said, exceeding the forecasts of all 29 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports rose 38.1 percent to $145.5 billion and imports climbed 22.7 percent to $116.8 billion, the bureau said on its website today.
  • China Tells Banks to Take Back Trust Firms Loans, People Say (Bloomberg) - China’s banking regulator ordered banks to transfer off-balance sheet loans onto their books and make provisions for those that may default, three people with knowledge of the situation said.
  • Incomes Fall in Most Metro Areas (WSJ) - Personal incomes fell across the U.S. last year except in areas with a high concentration of federal government and military jobs, the Commerce Department said Monday. They declined most in places with a lot of housing and finance jobs. Among the 52 metro areas with populations of more than one million, in only three did both net earnings and the broader measure of personal income both rise. All three had strong ties to the federal government: the Washington, D.C., area and two areas with a large military presence, San Antonio and Virginia Beach, Va. In all three, the biggest gains were among workers in the federal government and the military; private sector compensation fell.
  • Shirakawa Signals Japan Recovery Withstanding Yen’s Advance (BusinessWeek) - Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawaindicated the nation’s recovery has been resilient to the yen’s advance, supporting his board’s decision to keep policy unchanged today. “We are well aware that the yen’s strength is a downside risk for corporate sentiment,” Shirakawa told reporters after the bank kept the benchmark rateat 0.1 percent and maintained the current size of its credit programs for lenders at a meeting in Tokyo today. “On the other hand, we have to assess the currency’s effect on the economy in a well-balanced manner.”
  • Australia Business Confidence Down 2 Points In July Vs June (WSJ) - Australian business confidence fell broadly in July as weakness in the manufacturing, retail and construction sectors grew and more than offset strength for the mining sector, according to a monthly survey by National Australia Bank issued Tuesday. The business confidence index fell 2 points to 2 points in July, while its business conditions index lost 3 points to 5 points through the same period. Broadly, the data painted a picture of a disparate economy, with the mining sector enjoying buoyant conditions due to strong prices and Asian demand, while other sectors struggle amid higher interest rates and weakening consumer confidence.
  • China To Close Factories In Energy Drive (FT) - China plans to close outdated factories owned by more than 2,000 companies in heavy industries in the clearest sign yet of Beijing’s determination to meet its low energy targets even at the expense of economic growth.
  • Housing Gauge Signals First Price Drop in a Year (BusinessWeek) - A U.K. housing-market gauge signaled the first decline in prices for a year in July as demand for homes fell, a sign the economic recovery may be losing steam. The number of real-estate agentsand surveyors saying prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 8 percentage points, compared with a positive reading of 8 in June, the London-based Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in an e-mailed report today. A third more real-estate agents reported an increase rather than a drop in properties for sale.
  • German Exports Rise Again (WSJ) - German exports surged in June, confirming a revival in Europe's largest economy after a severe recession and, until recently, a sluggish recovery. Germany posted strong growth last quarter but the extent of the rebound wasn't clear until the release of the latest trade data, which showed a 3.8% rise in exports from May and a €14.1 billion ($18.78 billion) trade surplus.
  • Tavakoli: JPMorgan's Losses From Indecent Overexposure (HuffPo) - JPMorgan Chase's fixed-income revenue fell almost 28% to $3.6 billion in
    the second quarter, down from $5.5 billion in the first quarter, and
    down from $4.9 billion for the same period last year. JPMorgan blamed
    an interest rate squeeze and bad results in the credit markets and the
    commodities markets.
  • Pentagon Plans Steps to Reduce Budget and Jobs (NYT) - Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Monday that he would close a military command, restrict the use of outside contractors and reduce the number of generals and admirals across the armed forces as part of a broad effort to rein in Pentagon spending. Mr. Gates did not place a dollar figure on the total savings from the cutbacks, some of which are likely to be challenged by members of Congress intent on retaining jobs in their states and districts. But they appear to be Mr. Gates’s most concrete proposals to cut current spending as he tries to fend off calls from many Democrats for even deeper budget reductions, and they reflect his strategy of first trying to squeeze money out of the vast Pentagon bureaucracy.
  • Economy Lost Momentum While I Was Pulling Weeds (Bloomberg) - The post-mortems on the July
    employment report made me realize I’d missed the recovery.
  • We Do Not Have Liftoff (AEI) - Nearly two years of zero percent interest rates, a $1.2 trillion
    expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and a nearly $800
    billion fiscal stimulus package in February 2009 have failed to produce
    sustainable growth.

 

 

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Tue, 08/10/2010 - 08:23 | 512255 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Incomes are rising in Rome (Washington) while the provinces starve eh? How long before they send a legion to put down a grain revolt in Egypt (midwest states)?

Everything old is new again.

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 08:38 | 512262 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

what about gladiator fights? thumbs up ;)

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 09:25 | 512358 Skeebo
Skeebo's picture

Speaking of gladiatoral matches and Rome, that's exactly what I thought about when I first heard about this, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/09/AR201008...

 

How much you wanna bet that the team that Obama played on won?

 

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 09:53 | 512424 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

And Nero played the lyre while Rome burned...

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 08:37 | 512261 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

at what hour is de fed announcement?

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 08:42 | 512269 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

2:15 Eastern

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 10:45 | 512554 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

tyler, nice to see you again.

EST. i see frontR U N N I N G , got rather large and lengthy today.

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 08:57 | 512298 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

The only question one needs answered :

Is the Gov and Fed as stupid as they appear,

or are they all sociopathic criminals?

 

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 09:01 | 512306 taraxias
taraxias's picture

I see no contradiction in your question.

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 09:02 | 512307 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

bingo

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 09:06 | 512311 PeaBird
PeaBird's picture

China To Close Factories In Energy Drive (FT) - China plans to close outdated factories owned by more than 2,000 companies in heavy industries in the clearest sign yet of Beijing’s determination to meet its low energy targets even at the expense of economic growth.

I don't buy that reasoning one little bit.

 

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 09:08 | 512318 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

actually, "the old" factorys mean the iron casters. These guy are real energy eaters and they torture the grid.

This is also the reason why electricity drops out so many times in these industry centers.

Wed, 08/11/2010 - 07:17 | 514786 anvILL
anvILL's picture

The targeted industries are cement, steel and another major one not on that article, is paper.
All major energy consumers.
You should believe this one.

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 10:49 | 512551 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Unemployment: What Would Reagan Do?
The Alzheimer's Puppet Reagan would be pissed to learn you could simply eliminate the unemployed when their unemployment insurance ran out by calling them marginally attached...

Alzheimer's Puppet Reagan: "After all the grief I went through in '82-83, you mean I could have just CALLED THEM marginally attached?"

"Get Don Regan and Bill Casey on the phone... see if the CIA can't DO something with all these unemployed..."

"Get me another dish of jelly beans... I'm taking a nap..."

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 11:26 | 512663 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 important chart update :

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 08/10/2010 - 11:58 | 512736 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

What would reagan do? What fucking idiots the WSJ is.  Hello, the people that controlled Reagan, philisophically are STILL in power.

We already know what Reagan would have done because BUSH AND OBAMA have fucking done it.  Unless they mean some sort of other direction Reagan would have taken....which is overblown as he was greatly controlled by the same idiots.

The Wall Street Urinal, still fucking it up like always.  Death, taxes, and idiot free marketeers.

Do they really PAY people to write this shit?  Seriously? They pay them and not in Trident Layers?

Reagan was Trickle down king....except Obama now is.  What do you think bailouts are?  Giving money to the top, in trillions of dollars, and expecting it to trickle down to the rest of the economy.

Low taxes, have 'em, in fact Obama has lowered taxes.

Yet none of this has worked.  Because unlike Reagan, Obama isn't in the beginning/middle of the destruction of America, he came after it already happened.  So of course the Reagan-esque policies we've seen enacted (and have been just about every one) haven't worked.

So to answer the Urinal's question is quite simple.

Reagan wouldn't have done a single damn different thing.  (if so, maybe ONE small thing that would be inconsequential)

WTF playbook do you think we are using.  It's Reagan's dipshits.

 

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