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Frontrunning: August 18

Tyler Durden's picture




 
  • PPI down 0.9%, Core down 0.1%, more than forecast - Byron Wien: "most certainly last month of deflation" (Bloomberg)
  • July housing starts of 581,000 down 1.0% versus June 587,000 (Bloomberg)
  • CIT second-quarter loss narrows, posts reserves for bad loans (Bloomberg)
  • UK inflation is presumably high as booze, video game and DVD prices rise, a sure sign "recession eases" (Bloomberg)
  • Democrats urge Obama to keep government-run health-care option (Bloomberg)
  • flag@whitehouse.gov canceled (Politico)
  • Crudele: Now's a pretty scary time to be investing in the markets (Post)
  • It's not just greed that drives top bankers (Telegraph)
  • Forsyth: Still exiled on Main Street (Barron's)
  • Guaranty bid deadline is today (Reuters)
  • Growth in "Potential GDP" shows limited potential (Hussman Funds)
  • A balancing act (Fund Strategy)
  • Weak consumer spending will last for years (Credit Writedowns)
  • The Swedish model (WaPo)
  • Lynn: Deflation theory is a lemon we have all ben sold (Bloomberg)
  • Unemployment spikes drive foreclosure (WaPo)
 

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Tue, 08/18/2009 - 08:58 | 39718 zeropointfield (not verified)
zeropointfield's picture

Reading Bloomberg these days leaves me with the impression that they are clueless most of the time. Everything is 'unexpected' according to them, especially if it's a decline.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:00 | 39719 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

i feel disgusted when i read bloom. they really are morons

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:01 | 39720 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

CB: The platform is set...he who pays, picks the content...;-)

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:04 | 39721 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

hey Sqworl; whats the deal with the Taleeb letter; he really lowered himself if he thinks Cameron is the solution in the UK; there are no solutions among mainstream politicians.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:24 | 39732 deadhead
Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:26 | 39733 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Yep. two sides of the same iridium coin.  Taleeb stil has to figure that one out, unless his denial stretches that far as well..

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 16:11 | 39860 halo (not verified)
halo's picture

good point

Tax surpluses is stealing from tax payers. Time to get that money back and force them to lower taxes.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:31 | 39738 Raymond Shaw
Raymond Shaw's picture

Cheeky,

Brown is no prized possession my friend.  But I am not sure about Cameron either.  But I wouldn't mind change in the UK Government.

- Raymond.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:40 | 39745 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

hey man, you know i agree with you; bit its  high time for UK to see some lib-dems in charge. I know its none of my business, but I'm only saying; it would be nice to see a third party running things. oh check out this vid ... Brown's reaction after Cameron confronted him with elections issue ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ba7glghZ4w

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:48 | 39750 Raymond Shaw
Raymond Shaw's picture

I don't see Lib Dems coming into power unless Conservatives seriously screw up their chance in the next two (they will be re-elected most likely) terms.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:05 | 39760 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

CB: just sharing my inbox.  I see that it resulted in a nice debate...;-)))

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:18 | 39729 peoplesdemocrat...
peoplesdemocraticsocialistrepublicofmaryland's picture

Unfortunately, I think with Bloomberg, Marketwatch, etc., everything is "unexpected" and they are absolutely "clueless".

Fortunately we can go to those sites for amusement and come back to ZH for actual news and facts.

Thanks Tyler!

 

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:32 | 39739 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Most moves in the markets and economy (at least in the short run) are unexpected, as are most news events.

Those who predict any given major event/crisis are generally lucky, in that they happened to be looking in the right place at the right time (eg. John Paulson), and there are so many places to look that it is unlikely any given person will be looking at that evidence at any given time. In hindsight it is obvious where that "right" place to look was and it will seem "obvious" to everyone.

Not admitting that an event was unexpected would be extremely arrogant unless you are a person that specifically predicted it.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:30 | 39778 Raymond Shaw
Raymond Shaw's picture

So that's what you would say of Mr. Durden and others like Themis who have been unravelling the HFT debacle for longer than most of the news wires and advisory services.

It's simple, people who focus and don't get caught in the misdirection will see the moves happen.  Sometimes we just don't see them because of our particular bias, such as the positive point move in the Indices since March.

Expecting the unexpected is the job of a good trader.  Welcome to ZH my friend.

 

Edit: look at my discussion with Andy Dufresne under the post "VIX is Screaming" and you shall see what I mean.  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/vix-screaming#comment-39093

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:10 | 39723 Groty
Groty's picture

Art Cashin just said we could soon see "historic trading".  A veteran trader makes a provocative statement like that and Joe Kernan didn't think to ask Art what he sees to make him think that.  He's only been pretending to be a journalist for 20 years.  What a joke. 

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:13 | 39725 Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

It is pretty sad state of affairs when a belligerent redneck like walstreetpro has a better grasp of economics than the people compiling and presenting the news.

gawd I love his stuff

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:16 | 39727 Mos
Mos's picture

Why did he mean by "historic trading"?

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:29 | 39737 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

I doubt he's talking about a melt-up...

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:52 | 39753 Groty
Groty's picture

Here's the vid.  Art did mention the BDI at the end, no thanks to Kernan.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1218115845&play=1

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:03 | 39757 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Art Cashin back in the day on the floor in the blue room was know only for taking sports bets!  Talk about cash for clunkers!!! lol

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:34 | 39787 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Agreed... "market is ahead of itself" " "historic trading over the next 8 weeks" "potentially a very exciting period" "you can't live by inhaling alone, you have to exhale once and awhile"... and what is this about "worried about going into Ramadan"... what impact does that have on the market?

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:19 | 39835 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Does anybody here receive Art Cashin's daily letter? If so, how?

What is this "esoteric" stuff he is referring to.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 16:11 | 39859 halo (not verified)
halo's picture

We are repeating (in my opinion, which I have not brought down from Mt. Sinai on stone tablets) the pattern of early July, under the gracious sponsorship of POMO.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:11 | 39724 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"booze, video game and DVD prices rise"

The stay-at-home-on-the-couch sectors are the only ones with pricing power. A sure sign that the recession is in full swing!

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:16 | 39726 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wow. Only six months for Obama to start floundering.
Partisan muckity muck from here on out.
Perpetual campaigning has rendered Congress impotent.

Who do I see about my redress of grievances?

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:27 | 39736 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

The person looking at you from the mirror.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:23 | 39731 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Is this less worse?

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:27 | 39735 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

From ZH staff to Anonymous commenter:

"Your comment has been queued for moderation by site administrators and will be published after approval."

Ah, very nice. Now all views, opinions, and content will be channeled through the Minister of Information.

"Another Step Closer to a More Perfect Union"
good luck with that

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:07 | 39762 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

create a profile and you can also post nasty shit like all reg users do.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:33 | 39740 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Well, I don't know about historic, but if this green rolls over, Tyler's post on the useless of 10:30 - 3:30 might be an ironic event.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:50 | 39752 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Today is a/may be a dead cat bounce....I got close enough to my predictions to feel satisified. Although, I really rather not experience March again.  

Nobody ever thought that this administration could be this clueless. This in an of itself is a deep worry. Wonder what dearest leader was thinking as he looked at the grand canyon.

This experiment will end badly I am afraid.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:54 | 39755 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"July housing starts of 581,000 down 1.0% versus July..."

- shouldn't that be 'versus June'? That 'deflation' article in Bloomberg was actually better than the headline lead me to believe..

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 09:59 | 39756 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Keep an eye on this:

 

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:13 | 39767 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

keep an eye on this AXL.

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 10:15 | 39770 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Thanks Robot: but still down on the fee from my 1 share purchase...;-(

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:07 | 39821 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Cash for trash rules the equity markets.

Great bloomberg piece:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a8bE_SJ1WAiI

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:08 | 39824 jdoo
jdoo's picture

Accidently tried posting this as anon:

Here's a great bloomberg piece on the 'cash for trash' trend in equity markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a8bE_SJ1WAiI

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:12 | 39826 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There's no article now just a headline that reads: Taking Wall Street Advice in Rally Means Owing $6,000

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:36 | 39871 jdoo
jdoo's picture

The link works for me, however here is the full text in pastebin

http://pastebin.com/m64a8f41d

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:26 | 39845 Milton
Milton's picture

I can't believe you missed this one:

Size Doesn't Matter

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/08/18/2009-08-18_dishin_dirty_on_bernie.html

 

Tue, 08/18/2009 - 16:10 | 39856 halo (not verified)
halo's picture

Although it's my hunch that larger price stocks would be more subject to max-pain effect, but I have to test that.

Tax surpluses is stealing from tax payers. Time to get that money back and force them to lower taxes.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

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