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Frontrunning: August 20
- Jobless claims rise by 15,000 to 576,000 (Bloomberg), even "as the economy stabilizes"
- SEC plays keep-up in high-tech race (WSJ)
- Germany braces for second wave of credit crunch (Telegraph, h/t Jake)
- Andy Xie: New bubble threatens a V-shaped recovery (Caijing, h/t Yaser)
- Jonathan Weil: Insurers' biggest writedowns may be yet to come (Bloomberg)
- Pension plan private-equity cash depleted as profits shrink (Bloomberg)
- A recovery foundation built on Sand (Delta Global)
- Bernanke, a hero to his own, can't shake critics (NYT)
- This will end in tears too: VOW common share fall for sicth day as short interest increases (Bloomberg), Porsche to hire State Street to pull all borrow any minute
- Gensler seeks to toughen Obama's derivatives bill (Bloomberg, h/t Paul)
- UBS money laundering: what did Phil Gramm know (The Nation)
- Angry dealers reassured on clunker rebates (NYT)
- Sears swings to loss on pension plan and severance charges (Bloomberg)
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Re: Sears, but Cramer said...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32483198
"
Seeing a trend here? While the media can’t seem to admit it, the US economy and markets are enjoying a number of positives right now, not the least of which is growing strength in retail. So anyone who believed these stories missed some great moneymaking opportunities.
“You have to be skeptical when it comes to the press,” Cramer said.
"
Uhh - shithead- you ARE (part of) the press.
Pete
Would love to see a copy of Gensler's letter. If anyone has it, please post. Thanks.
ZHers; I've been browsing the net and read the stuff posted on NC, Mish, Denninger etc and i have come to a conclusion about this site; you know those kids in college who are absolutely genius and they don't need much to be presented to them to have a deep understanding of the presented issue and have 4.0 average etc; well that's us; no really, I've been reading all this blogs and one is completely insane ( Deninnger ), one is trendy and hip ( NC ), one is the odd stoner kid ( Mish ); and they are all great and provide good information; but ZH is a mix of all those characteristics AND has a touch of old academia where eccentric old geezers meet and discuss obscure topics and drink expensive scotch and fart and order 5000 $ whores. I really really really like this place.
Here Here, I really really like this place, and Mish is not a stoner...Like you, I read to much and get confused, scared but mostly entertained. I no longer have skin in this game and being a boomer will not live to see recovery, so hence, I present myself as a $2 Whore...;-)
long obscure topics, long scotch, long 5000$ whores, wait, it's a reccession, I'll settle for the 500$ version, but I'll take 2...
"The psycho bastard who thinks lovely lovely Ludwig Van is all horror-show settles for $500 whores even as the economy stabilizes..."
-Bloomberg
just a lil bit o' the ol' in 'n out, just to take the edge off aye..
Scotch is a great flight to quality investment. Like gold, it will always have value. As for the whores, you may have to settle for the $5m ones in this recession.
no man, i don't drink that much ( had problems with that in the past ) and i don't think lizzy minds my chauvinistic comments.
Nor do I, and I take as good as I give...example to Dark pool of Soror's a few days ago...with my big strap-on Hanky Paulson...lol
That's just all kinds of bad.
a good point
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Nice reach around for everyone. If I'm not mistaken, you were fellating yourself pretty well in the process. Cheeky really really likes himself :)
. Cheeky really really likes himself :)
actually, just the opposite
Now, Cheekster, you have hopefully put most of your demons to bed, at least at bay, and we enjoy your company. Anyway, anyone who enjoys excellent scotch ( 25 year McCallan, mayhap? ) and not get whisky dick and take on some prime pussy can't be all bad.
Denninger insane??? Are you nuts my friend? He breaks everything down.....shows the math and amkes it easy to understand. Don't blame him for a few things hat might get said by others on his sight. He is one of the FEW people who really does get it. And he has been explaining it for some time now. I am very surprised at you cheeky.
i didnt mean that kind of insane, more in the terms of CAPS LOCK an bold kind of insane.
Cheeky, your reading resembles my daily intake, along with a little MSM just for a cackle! Huge props to the guys you mention, I am a big fan of Denninger I must say. Also you should check out www.marketoracle.co.uk for a good read.
I'll sum it up for you:
Mish : deflation will destroy us
Denninger : not clearing the debt will destroy us
NC : recovery, may be....things will get worse, may be
The one and only place to be is right here even it means sharing $25 Tijuana whore.
Wut's NC? I wanna be trendy and hip.
CB - all good reads. Sounds like my nightly surf. I'll take vodka with my daily dose of horror. Have you seen the ads that pop up at the top for all the Chinese women for sale? Screw paying by the hour when you can own 10 of them (talk about having your own rotaion!). No supply issue. Get 'em before inflation hits.
"
New jobless claims rise unexpectedly"Um, No.
Dollar shrinks expectedlyUm, Yes
You are correct, binge drinking rises across the nation as DUI's spike and driven by soccer mom's.
So I had an idea while catching up on my reading. Your the government and you have things reasonably under control (Reston 6 and Pimpco for markets). Your Taylor rule estimate is negative and you can't lend negative (well, only to close friends). So how do you help inflation along in the most wide ranging fashion that has the most bang for the buck. Corner the sugar market! Sit back and watch inflation trickle through the system to everyone. (I am surprised Mr. Beeks hasn't posted this yet!)
Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency....
look at the WPI numbers in india this am - food aggregate index up 10.5% on monsoon weakness. All it takes is a small disruption to set off a daisy chain..just saying
Let's see if today follows the typical pattern on Thursday's where job losses are "more than expected". Typically the market shrugs this off and starts rising by about 10:30 AM when the volume begins to level off.
this mornings 1003.75 ESU09 daily ... is that overnight high the lower high relative to the 1015.75 level from 8/14/09?
do those two points deliniate the downtrendline ?
need to be patient ...but this todays bar does havea bit of LPSY look to it
trading above yesterdays close and high so ...
so now painted as a potential weekly spring of the 8/12 low ...
todays range will be also interesting ...
You know cause we have so many drivers of growth. The financial capacity is there to keep yields low while bidding up risk assets
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
The country is looking for an alternative to its hyperinflation-ravaged Zimbabwean dollar that was replaced by multiple currencies in January
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page504?oid=87809&sn=Detail
LOL...Dentist wet dream...;-)
Aaaaaamen!
Andy Xie said, "And American culture tends to swing to frugality after a bubble."
How about this instead - American consumers swing to frugality after they lose 50-75% of their life savings?
Screw culture, Andy. It's all about $$$.
I say, Andy, Americans have blown through multiple bubbles with zero change in consumption patterns, until now. The house ATM is closed; real deep unemployment; no credit cards, yada yada, we all know the drill.
True dat, OBRon.
Xie: Fed will raise reluctantly but do so as to be behind the curve so inflation outpaces the raises
Once again, the 10am news was leaked. It is so fucking obvious.
Mary Shapiro's very dark secret...Why the administration does not allow her to speak often!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBhlyXQeAL0
Henry the K is on Bloom right now stammering about China being the largest economic power in the world. His mechanical arm springing into a Seig Heil at the slightest provocation. Thinks we're going to have a long and wonderful relationship.
Watch out his drag queen wife will kick ur butt...lol
Inflationistas must be careful. We all ready had inflation. That was 03-08. We don't live in a true fiat world where everything is done with paper money transactions. The amount of paper money in existance is tiny compared to the credit that was added to the economy and gets passed around on computer screens and balance sheets.
All of that credit is disappearing, at a rapid rate, and unless they just start giving out government gift cards loaded with hundreds of thousands of dollars to all americans, we're gonna have deflation for the long haul.
The only way we see inflation is if foreign governments stop using the dollar and our currency collapses. Will that happen? Who knows. But if you're expecting rampant inflation because the fed is printing, just realize that until they start printing trillions a week, and giving it away for free, there will be no inflation. It just continues to line the pocketbooks of the elite.
like that marine look-a-like realtor who does the real estate interventions.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
The insurer write-down article is inane. DAC can be written down when a policy is cancelled or thought that they will no longer earn on them. I'll give that they are big assets but they're cash costs that have been paid and have to be amortized like any deferred expense, over the life that the revenue is earned.
Should they also write down the up-front revenue they take in before they earn it?
what about loss reserves? those havent occured yet, should they recognize that liability right now?
its accrual accounting and its just how it works. its part of equity because it represents future profit to come in the door.
the guy that wrote that obviously knows little about insurance.
i'd sure like to see your 21st August Friday options FrontRunner commentary - guess you sleeping catch-up for todays action...yep well i am on an 'all nighter' this is serious stuff, and i got SOME sleep yesterday...guess its time, time for "rock and roll, lock and load" so signing-off from Zero Hedge now 0507 -8 GMT California
post script - daylight savings time so really -7 GMT FYI