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Frontrunning: August 23
- Whatever you do, don't call it a bubble - Bond Funds Attracting Cash Like Stocks During Dot-Com Boom: Credit Markets (Bloomberg)
- The latest Ponzi spin - Spain using its social security funds to buy up its bond auctions (Fistful of Euros)
- Michael Pettis: The last chance to avoid a global trading war (FT)
- China Premier Wen Calls for Political Reform: China has to pursue
political reform to safeguard its economic health, Premier Wen Jiabao
said during a visit to the booming town of Shenzhen, the official Xinhua
news agency reporte (Reuters) - China Sets Strict Rules on Off-Book Loans (NYT)
- Andy Xie- Inflation, not deflation, Mr. Bernanke: World divides into ice-cold and red-hot economies (MarketWatch)
- Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott Launch Bids to Secure Power (Australian)
- Bernanke Must Raise Benchmark Rate 2 Points, Rajan Says (Bloomberg)
- Implementation of Affordable Chinese Housing Construction Plan Urged (China Daily)
- Preparing for the next "Black Swan" - Investors Are Flocking to New Strategies Designed to Profit From a Market Calamity. But Will They Fly? (WSJ)
- Time for Napoleon Dynamite to write another paid for report claiming all is well in Ireland: Ireland Needs ‘Sustainable’ Finances for Recovery, Lenihan Says (Business Week)
- UK Interest rates 'may hit 8pc' in two years (Telegraph)
- Dealmakers Seize the Moment on Mergers and Acquisitions (FT)
- Blackstone invests in Chinese housing (FT)
- The U.S. Housing Fetish Hurts the American Dream (Robert Samuelson)
- The unkindest cuts: It’s not just ‘the rich’ — we all will pay more taxes if Congress fails to act this fall (Post)
- The billionaire brothers who are waging a war against Obama (New Yorker)
- Krugman ranting for more taxes now: Now That’s Rich (NYT)
Economic statistics - EUR at 1.27 as the economic 'miracle' disappears:
- Euro-Zone PMI Composite 56.1- lower than expected- Consensus 56.3 Previous 56.7.
- Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing 55.0 - lower than expected- Consensus 56.1 Previous 56.7.
- Euro-Zone PMI Services 55.6 - higher than expected- Consensus 55.4 Previous 55.8.
- Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 4.4 - higher than expected- Consensus 3.8 Previous 4.1.
- France PMI Manufacturing for August 54.7 - higher than expected- Consensus 53.4 Previous 53.9.
- France PMI Services for August 59.9 - lower than expected- Consensus 60.5 Previous 61.1.
- Germany PMI Manufacturing for August 58.2 - lower than expected- Consensus 60.5 Previous 61.2.
- Germany PMI Services for August 58.5 - higher than expected- Consensus 56.3 Previous 56.5.
- Switzerland Money Supply M3 (y/y) for July 6.5%Previous 7.7% (Revised from 7.4%).
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index
continued to contract...3 month moving average.-0.17 vs -0.12 last month (revised from -0.05)Index at 0 vs last month's REVISED -0.7....wonder what this will get revised to?
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Speaking of China . . . the Chinese government has proposed swaping its US debt holdings for equity in US companies. The below quote is from a column in the People's Daily newspaper, which is published by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
Of course, they won't stop at marginal gov-owned companies such as GM. They want the real resources like mining, offshore oil, etc.
Wow...that is one scary article.
- holy shit !
Of course they won't stop at simply acquiring GM and retreat quietly into that good night. I wouldn't be surprised if they already own a substantial portion of raw, physical assets and resources on our very own soil. Despite multiple, desperate, 'pretty pweeze' trips by Frau Hitlery and Timmay The G, our creditors are in no mood to continue buying junk paper backed by gubment fiat-crack-addicts' promises. Time to turn that leverage into solid goods. Not just here, but everywhere (i.e. Brazil, Africa, Russia, Iran).
RE: The billionaire brothers who are waging a war against Obama (New Yorker)
Another smear campaign by a Conde Nast publication. Now tea party and libertarians are "anarchists"!? Oh, puhleeze. Two weeks ago it was an anonymous source that said Rand Paul kidnaped her and forced her to take bong hits while in college, by GQ Magazine (Conde Nast). The story proved to be completely false, but no retraction.
Someone needs to figure out an equity extraction tool by industry. Like a bank can extract all the equity from a house in 10 years. Medicine can extract all the equity in your house in a 2 month hospital stay. Heroin addiction can extract all the equity in your house in a month.
Give us a good idea of how long it takes to charge the battery before the pigs come and plug in their hair driers.
The hyperbole of unfunded liabilities arguments.
http://www.socsec.org/publications.asp?pubid=496
If looked at individually everyones life is an unfunded liability.
The people screaming "bond bubble" should compare the weekly NASDAQ chart from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2000 (a real bubble) the the weekly 10-year treasury chart from 1/1/2001 to today. The 10-year treasury chart doesn't look anything like the NASDAQ chart.
IMO, we're dealing with a bunch of inflationistas that can't get their arms around the idea that deflation rules the day. Faced with evidence that they are wrong, the inflationistas scream "bond bubble" rather that adjust their world view to the facts.
Neither inflation nor deflation rules the day.
What rules the day is debt.
1) Bernanke sees a 14 Trillion dollar debt, and growing. A 1% interest rate jack is 140 billion dollars of budget smash. 2% would be 280 billion. This can't be tolerated.
2) There will be no default of government debt. The global intertwining of swaps precludes it. This is why Greece was bailed out and it is why the US will be bailed out.
3) There is no inflation. A major depression is ongoing and you cannot raise the prices of things no one will or can buy. Only oil and food, in that order, can defy this and they do not represent enough of a percentage of the US consumer's budget to be able to counter falling housing. There is no inflation, and there will be none. Oil scarcity will preclude outright deflation, too.
4) Running around waving your hands over your head about how the debt can never be repaid and must be defaulted or inflated is just a consequence of shallow thinking. The debt can be somewhat easily dealt with without either default or inflation. Most of it is still in US hands. Massive civilian deaths in a war and a high estate tax will erase all that debt in a few months. The foreign holders can be conquered and the relevant paper destroyed.
Re: Krugman ranting for more taxes now: Now That’s Rich (NYT)
Ahhh....Pauly-Paul Krudman. Always good for an early morning, coffee-spewing, laugh. See, cuz like, tax cuts 'add to the deficit.' Damn those evil conservatives who hate poor people! Gawwrsh, and here I always thunk it was that whole 'spending' thingy that made the national debt clock go to Ludicrous Speed.
But I guess that's what makes me a clueless, unwashed, dorkified rube, and Herr Krudman a Nobel Prize Winner.
The koch brothers are up to no good. in the house.
worshipped in aspen, B I G philanthropist there, get their who_who blown by everyone.
Napoleon Dynamite is the worst movie i've ever seen. What a waste of 2 hours
Thanks for such a great post and the review, I am totally impressed! Keep stuff like this coming!...
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