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Frontrunning: August 26
- July durable goods ex-cash for clunkers and imaginary aircraft orders (see Textron) up 0.8%, a decline from June. Also, the inventory pick up mirage continues being just that: inventories declined $2.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $314.1 billion. (US Census Bureau)
- Senator Edward Kennedy dies after battle with cancer (WSJ)
- Swiss response begins: Swiss private bank Wegelin announced it will stop doing business in the United States (Swissinfo, h/t William)
- AFP interviews the one-man regulator Harry Markopolos (AFP, h/t Eric)
- China to impose curbs on overcapacity in steel, cement (Bloomberg)
- Hedge funds hiring on paper, not in real life (Reuters)
- And especially not when this crosses the Atlantic: Sarkozy, banks set new limites on bonuses (WSJ)
- Dealers tear up $16 billion of Thomson default swaps (Bloomberg)
- Chrysler sues Daimler over key 2010 vehicle parts, good luck Fiat (AP)
- The deification of gentle Ben (The Nation, h/t Geoffrey)
- Ben Bernanke: "World's most dangerous man" (Mish)
- Watch that AMZN ticker: Sony launches Kindle killer (WSJ)
- Employment Concerns Continue to Weigh on Confidence (Wells Fargo)
- Deutsche Bank, SocGen boost market for bank subordinated notes (Bloomberg)
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"...imaginary aircraft orders ..."
Well spoken TD!
"nondefense aircraft orders, which grew 107.2%"
No mention of Japan's trade numbers? The MW headline was great, something like "Japanese trade surplus increases." After a quick look you can see the cause of the increase, 40% drop in imports and only a 36% drop in exports.
Zero Hedge reported the Japanese trade picture a week ago:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/global-trade-collapsing-china-now-japan...
This story on Markopolos is great, just read this gem... "The Social Security system, legalized by government sanction, is the only ponzi scheme known to have expanded larger than that of Madoff"
---^ hahhaha
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/man_who_exposed_madoff_190.html
RIP Ted Kennedy
Gold’s “breaking out” to a higher level as imminent, Chris Locke, managing director at Oystertrade.com Management, told [CNBS] Wednesday, as other analysts have said the precious metal could shine again as inflation fears resurface.
“We’re on this point of the market making a substantial move to the upside,” Locke said.
“We will see the market move through the bull market highs of $1,040 very, very quickly,” he added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32562897
Bla bla bla don't these analysts understand nonlinear dynamics? 'Inflation' looks nothing like deflation or hyperinflation. They are not even in the same category. There will be paper deleveraging in gold if the equity market fails. . . This goes on Until the paper trade dies -- then we get massive upward revaluation of the shiny stuff.
There was some talk last night about increased gold miner M&A on the far side of the globe (China, really). Gold price started holding up strong, even as the dollar ticked higher - even against the Euro. Thought about posting it, but it really was only a couple dollar move in the spot price and didn't continue.
Still, I think I'm going to hold select gold mining equities in the retirement account a bit longer...
I quit investing in gold equities (sold them all, had GSS and AEM) ... now I just invest in physical bullion.
I think my main problem was the political risk. For example, what happens if a government decides to nationalize a mine? Or decides to start taxing mining equities at 70%? etc. What if the gold in the ground becomes a better store of value than mining it? Anyway I consider mining equities to be "lotto tickets". If they run, they will run far, but I wouldn't put more than 5% of my portfolio in them. They don't seem to track the gold price very well, so they are not really a leveraged play unless this is a repeat of the 1970s.
I think if you want to do a leveraged play on gold, it is probably best to invest in silver bullion , but perhaps I am biased in favor of the white metal.
Why not invest in the copper mines?
Sincerely,
Francisco Domingo Carlos Andres Sebastián d'Anconia
I don't know anything about copper -- but from what I understand it's correlated to general economic activity. I also have heard China is buying it. Other than that I don't know much.
Then we guess you *Shrug* at the mention of copper mines then ...
Copper is used in nearly everything. Power Lines mostly but some of those are aluminum if the runs really long wight becomes a factor. Wires for everything, electronics on motherboards cell phones, clocks, tvs, calculators etc etc. Plumbing, house wiring if theres construction activity. It's used in some radiators.
It's valued for being plentiful enough to handle all these things with excellent elecritcal and heat conduction and bit hated for being hard to work with. It work hardens extremely fast.
about 300 pages in the book, and to me it seems as though buffet would play the D'Anconia character?
not by a long shot! but do keep going.
PM, agree re mining stock political risk. Started moving out of such positions earlier this month. Q: IYO, best to acquire bullion coins through MONEX and ilk or anonymously at local dealers as recommended by the more paranoid, i.e., hyper-rational (?), among us? Thanks.
"I think my main problem was the political risk"
That is a top factor in which companies are even on the list of possible investment. Really narrows down the choices for research. Throw in a bonus factor of the location being a key factor in where the buyouts will actually occur.
No they don't, but I have noticed for years gold bugs are the most myopic creatures on earth, waiting like Gollem ( mine precious ) for their Armegeddon trade.
Then they'll show us by god.
Hahahaha "preccccccious" ... it seriously is the Armegeddon trade. Doesn't mean it's not a bad idea. I mean these are the 'last days' right? I wonder if I can use that as a pickup line somehow. Maybe it will work when I visit the countryside.
Sure you can. Have you ever read Inconstant Moon, by Larry Niven?
Gold took a dive during the last deleveraging. But if you look at all the gold buyers it's pretty clear that it won't get dumped as hard during the next.
This graph says it all on the DG number
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DGNOXTCH%3AIND
Story got bumped from Yahoo's front page pretty quick.
Got a call from a senior citizen relative this morning. He thanked me for sending him months ago a news article warning him that he isn't getting a Social Security cost of living raise this year and to plan accordingly. He did so, but he went on to say his peer group seems to have missed those warning articles and now that harsh reality is really setting in and finally getting attention among his fellow seniors - lots of talk in church etc.
That raises the question, and I haven't seen anyone talk numbers. How much spending is this going to take out of the economy, being that these folks who almost always get a raise, aren't getting one?
Oh, and don't forget, they're not just not getting a raise, they're getting a pay cut, because Medicare goes up anyway.
Maybe ZH could give up the impact of this in numbers or green shoots...
another one time stimulus check for social security recipients coming for the 2010 midterms in 5....4....3....
The "lion sleeps tonight." Good riddance!
Re Swissy's quitting US
Time to turn in your US passport if you are rich. Live in the US as citizen of the world.
Defense orders are up 14.8%, again putting a fork in the Democrat/Liberal dreams of Obama pulling back on the military. Nope. This is a consistent trend since the beginning of his administration - he's a big-military guy folks, despite what you may have wished. Welcome to reality; defense was the only year/over/year positive change.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1378-Durable-Gains-CFC-And-Defense-Related.html
It may be because we're fighting two wars. Just a guess.
Who are the bosses of the Capitol Hill?
1. Military-Industry complex,
2. Finance-Industry complex,
3. Sick-care Industry complex, and
4. UAW-Industry complex (this one is on its way out and will be gone by the 2nd bankruptcy filings of GM, Chrysler and the 1st filing of Ford)
Wonder if Ted'll see MaryJo on the other side...
"Swiss private bank Wegelin announced it will stop doing business in the United States"
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
"Hedge funds hiring on paper, not in real life (Reuters)"
Please point out where in the "Hedge funds hiring again after downturn" article one can support your claim above, or where some other article or source supports your claim above. Just throwing out shit, doesn't make it so, it just makes ZH look stupid, even if its a throwaway line.
BTW, I have an equity stake in a recruitment firm and it is definitely picking up from their perspective.
hedge fund hiring:
yeah... hiring is happening but in "marketing" and other "hedge-fund-related roles"
not many professionals being hired, they already have enough