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Frontrunning: August 7
- Nonfarm payrolls down 247,000, right on top of Goldman's whisper estimate, unemployment rate now 9.4%, bonds yields explode (BLS, AP)
- Insider trading probe at SocGen cost former IB chief his job, TCW co-founder Robert Day also under investigation (Bloomberg)
- Jonathan Weil: Blowing up your company gets raised to art form (Bloomberg)
- Australian workers cut work hours instead of firing (Bloomberg, h/t Aditiya)
- It's not all golden at Goldman (Reuters)
- Goldman Sachs is (not) ripping you off (Ritholtz)
- A potentially pivotal bear catalyst (RCS Investments)
- Failed $418 million condo conversion sold for $20 million (Crain's)
- Geithner's F-bombs don't scratch Goldman Sachs (Bloomberg)
- Inside G.E. a little bit of Enron (NYT)
- AIG posts first profit in seven quarters (Reuters)
- The exchanges should end flash orders (FT)
- China: Bogus boom (AEI)
- No bubble here: China auto sales up 64% (AP)
- China's sovereign wealth fund posted negative returns in 2008 (Bloomberg)
- Deep thoughts from Richard Russell (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
- Credit Suisse's toxic-asset bonus pool said to return 17% (Bloomberg)
- NY Fed- No chance of Recession in 2010 (Carpe Diem)
- RBS posts loss, warns of tough years ahead (Reuters)
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"A potentially pivotal bear catalyst (RCS Investments)"
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Baltic Dry Index is down 18% from July 17th. That can't be good.
Baltic Dry is an indicator that can't be faked, just like the tax receipts data that Trimtabs uses. Investors need to learn to distinguish fake vs. nonfake data.
The Baltic is also very sensitive to transport costs, i.e., are there shipping methods available to move stuff around the globe. If you are looking for a hint of what demand looks like, it's probably better to stick with the raw commodities over longer periods.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p04113262855&a=174902223
Bullish or bearish, the markets gave no love to DSX yesterday after missing estimates
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSBNG49836620090806
how do we keep having net job losses and the unemployment rate drops???
who are they leaving off here?
or are unemployed folks being exterminated to lower the rate???
Unemployment fell by 267,000 to 14.5 million. The labor force declined by 422,000, which means the jobless rate fell because people dropped out of the work force, not because they got jobs.
Sorry Spinmeisters but the real number is around 310k--total agreement
mule many have and will continue to drop out of the workforce. Wages increase 2.5%--40 billion in bonuse's added in---Lets not leave out that 18 states are now borrowing to pay UE benies.
My chocolate icecream tastes like vanilla because its brown.
Its a wonderful life--time to go buy more ammo and foodstuffs---where's my chicken.
Who to believe? BLS/ADP? or Trimtabs?
Can you please get some hard numbers so we can really see that the numbers are being cooked? If you don't have the proof that the numbers are smelly, then we have to believe them seeing as how the revisions are good too and we moving from 33 to 33.1 hours worked and hourly wages have gone from an average of $18 to $18.03.
Ummmmm. Didn't we just raise minimum wage? There is your 3 cents...Businesses are shedding part timers and trying to keep core workers,there is your .1 hour.
Trimtabs looks very foolish after this jobs report. They are making (Gulp) Ron Insana look like he knows what he's talking about ...
Very hard. Trim tabs posited a good assumption that if state tax roll are dropping like a stone off a cliff, then unemplyoment must be rising. OK, so far. ADP offerred a pretty good number on Thursday suggesting that Friday maybe ok. What we don't know is when the adjustment will hit, which Chuck also didnt' know. So.....We wait. RI at CNBC looks dumb too, today looks like a strong day. HE is in cash. I have suggested that the 1200 S/P and 10,000 DOW are likely. And we may. Lastly, there is a LT trend line using months that also suggests this may continue.
The truth is out there, trust no one.
AIG getting Heatmapped this morning.
Check out the outlandish volume at the end of the day yesterday.
Man, the gambling fever is accelerating.
this should be great evidence for flash trading
Looks like someone off-loaded or off-loads his shares? Good for him/her.
From MarketWatch - Unemployment fell by 267,000 to 14.5 million. The labor force declined by 422,000, which means the jobless rate fell because people dropped out of the work force, not because they got jobs.
Amazing how GS "knew" the number a day before it was released huh?
Maybe we should all just give in and buy every share of thaose bloodsuckers that we can afford. They obviously own this administration.
Yeah, and everyone should take a long look at the 8:30ish bars in the FX (EUR/JPY) - if you want to talk about HFT manipulation - the gazillion dollar order needed to drive that pair 113 pips in one minute (less acually) is astounding. It's a rigged game.
Anyone seen the birth/death pad-justment yet?
+32k
Added more jobs through B/D Model in July 2009 than July 2008. Gotta account for that population growth!
My primary bellweather of "Speculation" is HBAN, up big in the pre-market:
We might call them National Monuments, but if this guy lived in Japan he'd be called a National Treasure.
TD - the title is "Goldman Sachs Not Ripping You Off", and the truth is they are not. You seriously damage your credibility with your constant babble about black helicopters, grassy knolls, and District 9 UFO holding pens. There is plenty of corruption in our government and economy to expose without having to fabricate "crimes" where there are none
thanks for catching the sarcasm. btw, feel free to email zero hedge your evidence of the "truth"- we will be happy to present it.
TD -
one does not need to "prove they are innocent" in the US legal system, because in the US system one is "innocent until proven guilty". Therefore, I need not provide any evidence that Goldman Sachs is innocent of "ripping people off" since the presumption is they are innocent (i.e. not ripping people off) until proven otherwise. So, if you have evidence that Goldman Sachs is guilty of the crime(s) of "ripping people off", then I suggest you bring said evidence to Andrew Cuomo who most assuredly want to take the criminal entrprise on Wall Street as it would be favorable for his political ambitions.
you bring up a great point... and stay tuned on that matter.
thank you. and thank you for your site.
Tell your folks to dig up all keltons in Cuomo's closet - just in case TD does find proof and Cuomo has the balls to go after GS
No crimes at GS? Ok, Lloyd.
Well, just take a look at Drudge. More and more headlines running about unruly mobs questioning authority. This is the ultimate cue that things are really reaching the tipping point. Remember my friends, in the end the truth always prevails and those who are behind this dark scheme will are being pin-pointed......ultimately tried for thier crimes against humanity. Be prepared. The people are pissed and reckoning time is drawing nigh.
Can you believe, NPR ran a piece yesterday on how these people must be somehow organized and sponsored $$ by somebody. It can't possibly be that people are just pisssed, can it? I could not believe my ears. Talk about media manipulation, THiS is PUBLIC RADIO.
You obviously haven't been listening to pelosi. She clearly said they're astroturfing and that they all like to bring out swastikas and sacrifice children in the streets after a good cup of hot steaming republican tea.
They deny reality at their own peril.
Here you go, its humor, but there is a point being made in the piece:
http://tinyurl.com/lkgput
On a recent visit to the US, I attended a major gun show in Virginia, purely out of curiosity. Guns were plentiful, and prices were up 20% since the first week of November. Ammo, however, was pretty scarce.
A lot of those 14.5 million out there are locked and loaded. Kind of glad I can watch it from afar.
So what's this slush bucket? Another 3 million not counted? And going up. Y/o/Y by 1mil. And Now we got the BO every day interpreting the economic news. With this much leeway getting an estimate so close to the numbers as GS did, is highly unlikely?
BLS:
About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in July, 709,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals, who were not in the labor force, wanted
and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. Discouraged workers are persons not currently
looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
why are you so bitter about goldman sachs? why not focus on the positives in life, rather than the negatives?
LMFAO!
Picture a little kid trapped helpless in a closet in a room, watching his Mom being gang raped by a series of well suited, polite middle aged men again and again ? Can you come up with some thing positive to say for such a scenario ?
i dont concern myself with these things. they are out of my control. my goals are to make money from the markets, and to help people with the opportunity afforded to me through my hard work and persistence in learning how to make money. if the market is going up, i am not going to fight it. if my TF is daily and the market is going up, i will go long, and i will stay long until the trend changes. theres nothing else to it. yeh, the fundamentals point to the sp being down at -400, but its not there YET. why should i waste my time bitching and losing my flow with the market instead of making money on the way up and then shorting when its time to fall? the higher it goes, the more profit potential there is for meon the way down - another positive.
Blimpin ain't easy.
You always have a large retention in major companies during these "economic cycles". They act like a radioactive substance where they don't like to eject their particles and go back to a stable state. Ironically the rhetorick is most strong because we've been in this downturn 18 months. But there's been no conversion from large corporate jobs to small business jobs. Which is normal to maintain stability because anything too big and powerful is basically an antisocial dictator society hurting machine. As in the great depression you get the W that breaks the huge companies.
Welcome to the halfway point of the depression. When the things that aren't supposed to break start breaking then the bulls can run freely. Another 6 months and the large corpororations who don't want to give away it's most valuable assests to the free market will continue clinging to them until it breaks them.
This number needs to be released PUBLICLY right from the analysts computers. It is NOT right that Goldman insiders know this number days in advance. It is CRIMINAL. There needs to be insider trading indictments. Good thing for Goldman is that they are their own watchers. I spit on any Goldman person that thinks they are even one ounce capitalist. You all are NOTHING if not for your government insider manipulation. That isn't even remotely capitalist. It is criminal thuggery.
So your theory is that GS gets the number secretly, and then has their economist publish it for the world to see. Yeah. That makes sense.
Actually Goldman has secretly mastered time travel. Their economist simply teleported himself to 8:30 this morning a few days ago . It's that simple.
The "best and brightest" ahead of us again!
wiretaps/PROMIS/the Eliot Spitzer experience
You guys are pretty naive if you don't understand that government insiders and friends know the number by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. So maybe get your pompous bloated head out of the water bowl that Goldman has left out for you to sip from.
I smell a bull trap.
NFP: seasonals. from shadowstats:
eek Ahead: July Employment and Unemployment. Due for release next Friday (August 7th), the July employment and unemployment surveys are expected to show a respective monthly decline of 333,000 (versus a 467,000 drop in June), with unemployment rising to 9.6% from 9.5%, per Briefing.com. Underlying series would suggests significantly worse results, but unusual seasonal-factor distortions could bring a reported — albeit false — reported decline in the unemployment rate.
As discussed in SGS Newsletter No. 51, disrupted patterns of regular auto-industry shutdowns for model-year-change retooling terribly skewed seasonally-adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance, reducing levels to a point of triggering "economic recovery" hype. The worst of the distortions took place in the same week as the household (unemployment) survey, and the same seasonal-pattern distortions may play out in the July unemployment rate and could affect payroll employment to a lesser extent. If it does, look out for sharp negative movements in the August data.
We have officially entered full scale propaganda mode
Obama has moved 'All-in' on the "recession has ended" play
He has bet his presidency right here, right now
If he's wrong, he's done. There's no coming back from this, if the economy slips further.
Dude, we have been in full metal jacket propaganda mode for some time now.
Well that's true, but recently the administration has changed gears (kinda like they got a talking to from someone)
Remember how a month or so ago, Biden and O were saying how the economy was 'worse than they expected', and now it's 'happy days are here again', culminating with today's "drop" in the headline U number.
If I were to guess, I'd say things behind the scenes are bad (and getting worse) and now their last play is to trick the populace into believing the recession is over.
I saw that the other day, and I think it will be Obama's
"mission accomplished".
He will market the top. Which was dow up +110 this morning, or whatever it got up to.
Morally it is a small issue, if by cheerleading and maybe slipping in a few half truths if indeed you could jump start a virtuous cycle. Kudos to Obama if he could do that. But the problem is that it is not righteous-what we seeing playing out here is that a few anointed firms colluding with the government to fleece current and future taxpayers to make a profit from that strategy. Ultimately that is what will fail USA.
If he's wrong, he's done. There's no coming back from this, if the economy slips further.
Hillary is creaming in her pant suit. Bill has an enormous woody.
She can smell the Hillary in 2012 already. Count on it.
"Hillary is creaming in her pant suit. Bill has an enormous woody."
or vice versa
It would be highly unusual to challenge a sitting President for the nomination. Obama's favorability ratings would need to be in the 20's for any Dem challenger to even attempt it.
But, if she resigns from State in say 2010, we'll see.
Re: Unemployment Report
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Civilian labor force ....| 153,993| 154,912| 155,081| 154,926| 154,504| -
Can someone explain to me how the Civilian labor force dropped by 422,000 in one month? DOL, "You've got some 'splaining to do"
The number of people not in the labor force increases by 637,000, and this is good news? Does anyone in the MSM take just a minute to read all the data?
Is some credit accident looming in the near future? Why is the Bank of England so much more gloomy about economic future than forecasts from the City?
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html
The sun will rise again tomorrow. There will be new reports next 30, 60, 120 days... The more the numbers are apparently "fabricated", the higher and nastier will be the public response when truth comes up. Have you read GEAB nº 36 - The Rogue Waves (June 2009)?... reality its pretty there. For me, the problem is not the unemployment figure. Its his composition. When countries and parents fail to pass the testimony/promise of a better life to the following generation, natural life cicles are broken and social problems arise. What will they ( new generation) do when everybody realizes that we (now) live in a false reality just to pay bonuses and mantain existing political systems...
All Bull Markets end on "good data". Look out below.
Oh, look that that...just in... Obama speaking at 1pm today....
This ought to be an interesting pep rally.
i'm hoping to add to my short at 3:45 today.
USD SHORTS ARE ABOUT TO GET BUTT REAMED POST NFP
ASSET ALLOC INTO 10 YRS COMING
MODEST EQUITY SELLING
BIG DEAL
People on foodstamps reach all time high 34 million
http://www.toledoonthemove.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=334288
I'll be goddamn if I'm going to go to work to cover the sins of Washington, Wall Street and the FED.
Fuck'em
Based on the Case Schiller Trading index (DMM), expectations for home prices have dropped since the Non Farm Payrolls was released. Due to higher mortgage rates? We will see how strong this housing market is when nobody touches a home at 6% mortgage rates.
Have they overegged the figures to appear to be just TOO good to be true?
“Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it” - Adolph Hitler
Some things to keep in mind. 1) These seasonal factors that affected the quoted results were public knowledge. TrimTabs failed to get it right. GS did get it right. DeutscheBank did get it right. The leak conspiracy scenario requires not just a leak to GS but also one transatlantic. When conspiracies get large, they become less credible. They also, in this case, postulate that non political appointee career civil servants would risk their plush retirement benefits by breaking the early disclosure law. Bottom line on this report: it should not have been a surprise. 2) Q3 achieving flat to slightly up growth is not the ballgame. It will declare the recession over, but Q4 could be flat to slightly down and no one would then know what to label it. 3) First Friday in Sept is the date of the next employment report, just as Congress returns from recess. The seasonal factors should generate a sharply unfavorable employment report then.
At the risk of revealing my own ignorance I still don't get the unemployment rate being lower even with some explanations on this thread.
Could someone break it down for me one more time?
Thanks
Are we there yet? Yes we are.....
http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/folders/Jing/media/1137b550-9...
and shameless plug for my blog....
http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com/