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Frontrunning: January 13

Tyler Durden's picture





 
  • Prices Soar on Crop Woes (WSJ)
  • S&P, Moody’s Warn on US Credit Rating (WSJ)
  • How Oil Affects the Price of Peas in China (FT)
  • The banks' ongoing accounting gimmick: JPMorgan Reserve `Bleeds' Distort Record 2010 Earnings (Bloomberg)
  • Geithner Urges New Start for U.S.-China Relations (NYT)
  • Swiss Franc Slumps After SNB Says Currency Threatens Growth (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Foreclosure Filings May Jump 20% This Year as Crisis Peaks (Bloomberg)... or not
  • South Korea raised rates unexpectedly from 2.5% to 2.75% (BBC)
  • World Bank Shocker: China To Drive Asian Growth (AP)
  • Brisbane Wakes to Devastation, Death as Flood Peaks (Bloomberg)
  • Portugal Shouldn't Be Forced Into Rescue, Germany's Hoyer Says (Bloomberg)
  • Goldman Should Withdraw Greek Euro Swap Dodge (Bloomberg)
  • EU's New Drive to Contain Euro Debt Fire May Still Fall Short (Bloomberg)
  • Germany Backs Wider Rescue Fund Role (FT)
  • BOE Holds Stimulus as Cameron's Spending Squeeze Looms (Bloomberg)
  • 2010 Home Foreclosures Top 1 Million For First Time (Reuters)
  • Manhattan Apartment Leasing Triples, Rent Concessions Decline (Bloomberg)

European Economic Highlights

  • France CPI - EU Harmonised for December 0.5% m/m 2.0% y/y - higher than expected.Consensus 0.2% m/m 2.0% y/y. Previous 0.1% m/m 1.8% y/y.
  • France Consumer Price Index for December 0.5% m/m 1.8% y/y - higher than expected. Consensus 0.4% m/m 1.7% y/y.
  • Sweden CPI - Headline Rate for December 0.7%m/m 2.3% y/y - lower than expected.Consensus 0.8%m/m 2.4% y/y. Previous 0.3% m/m 1.8% y/y.
  • UK Industrial Production for November 0.4%m/m 3.3% y/y - lower than expected.m/m Consensus 0.5% m/m 3.3% y/y. Previous -0.1% m/m 3.5% y/y.
  • UK Manufacturing Production for November 0.6% m/m 5.6% y/y - higher than expected.Consensus 0.4% m/m 5.3% y/y. Previous 0.6% m/m 5.8% y/y.
 


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Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Anyone Shorting Oil?....

SCO,DUG...

i must be alone in the dark:)

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yes, I am shorting oil.

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

92-92.50 acting as double top...and 5th Elliot Wave since september...so now A, B and C till 82-85

gluck Cdad

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

You too hugo,

92 ish has been like a gajillion-tuple top.  In fact, I have never seen a chart that has been given so many chances as crude oil...Texas.  But this is what happens when you have entities around like the L. Blankfein Wildest Dreams Park [oil futures] and no sheriff around to walk the grounds.

Pissed off about this, I am. 

[as an example of how pissed I am, because oil has been hanging here for so long, criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers, desperate for a new oil idea, have been directing capital into the world's largest petroshrimp maker.  Now if that does not piss you off, you are already a zombie.]

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Front whiffing 1/13

 

If I could just get the currencies right, I'd be brilliant:

 

1.  Little Miss Euro goes apoplectic today.  She will be wildly hammered at some point, and later leaning into the railing...and she will emerge from a club in the arms of a man...not a Chinese man this time, but in the arms of L. Blankfein...as only he knows just how valuable it is to have little Miss Euro on her feet.  It is in the Euro and the Stud Man that we see most directly the influence of repeated central banker interventions, the way it makes investment decisions entirely random as every one is bailing everyone out with more and more bad debt...NUTS!  I dunno...buy VIX?

2.  Most front running predictions will be like dice rolling....because there is no way to predict the stud man or little  Miss Euro...as neither will be attached to any sort of logic that humans can understand as Europe just lies and prints the crap out of money during each and every PIIG auction...so who cares?   At least in the US, our counterfeit chief B. Bernanke tells you straight up that he is ripping off the nation....sheesh.  Can you short the FED?

3.  Burritos get obliterated today, and the capitulation phase begins.  Some call it the price discovery phase, too.  I like to call it the obliteration of useless dummies phase.  Locate the nearest 200 day sma and watch people jump off chart cliffs over the coming weeks/months.  Right now, dummies think $200 is a floor...'cause it is 200.  Duh.

4.  Bulldozers may well bounce back today [relatively]as they are drawn like a moth to the big round number of 100 [also duh]...causing aerospace to check back a little.  I would advise not being fooled by this price action because everyone still already owns bulldozers and no one owns aerospace....still.  I'm just sayin' that sometimes the pair gets a little tweekin'.

5.  On the subject of petroshrimp...the world's largest maker of petroshrimp is an abomination of a company and should be sold every time it even looks up.  That is a known.  What is not known [until just now] is that the world's most common server of petroshrimp should also be sold.  It is almost certain that their quarterly suggestion of earnings is way too ambitious.  As well, and at least here at cdad's house, the shares are available again for Whack-a-Mole.  This likely means that there is a snap back rally in the shares somewhere, on the order of about 2%, which should the be properly Whacked.

6.  Robo and Harry posts [which have been accelerating] will reach crescendo today...or at least in the case of Robo...who deep down knows that posting charts of things that have already happened does not predict the future.  Harry, on the other hand, is pretty much a hopeless shill for the criminal syndicate cause.

7.  The lights are on at L. Blankfein Wildest Dream Park [oil futures] infuriating cdad...as it is not at all necessary.  More criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers will whore themselves on the Blow Horn [CNBC] today in an attempt to explain why that is...even though we have oil coming out of our ears.  They will say "oil to 100" as often as they can today while they try to  pretend it is not happening because of the way they are torturing currencies and pumping futures contracts for which they know they will not be taking delivery...lol...and ZH guys will constantly post "peak oil, peak oil" even though that has nothing to do with it [but is too complicated to go into here.]  Pissed. 

8. Microcap energy companies will pay cdad's bills today

9.  It is almost time to pull the trigger on the next cure for cancer, or more aptly the next replacement for chemo, but biotech makes cdad nervous...so stay tuned on this one.

10.  Even criminal syndicate wall Street Bankers will get sick of listening to themselves, which will ultimately kick off selling in the broader market...if not today, either Friday or Tuesday [?]...but who could know anything in a market that is entirely built on sandcastles, hopium, UnicornDew, pixie dust and whatever?  I guess what I am saying is that this rally is very near its end [and the world's largest maker of zombies will be the tell],

 

 

 Good luck navigating the wasteland that Ben Bernanke created...aka the US markets.  What a joke.  Oh...look!  Lost jobs and ramping inflation?  Who knew? 

 

Good grief...[and by that I mean when the f*ck are folk going to simply resign because they finally face their incompetence?]

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Xcellent 10 guidelines:)¡

 

Microcap energy...let me give one idea that one colleague in US told me:

BQI (amex) follow on 0.60x

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

cDiddy, what is Burritos? Gas?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment alter ego
alter ego's picture

The Basics:

How do Oil Shocks create recessions?

 "In Many ways, the most fundamental linkage between Oil shocks and economic recession is that Oil shocks always cause huge spikes in inflation and those spikes in inflation are accompanied by huge spikes in interest rates that eventually snuff off growth"

                                                                             Jeff Rubin

 

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Agree alter,

The big problem to be structurally short in oil is that anykind of walfare conflict will provoque a spike...usually "positive skew" asset.

I Honestly think Emerging markets are overextended plays in gereral terms, we have to be Country Picking Selective (very similar pattern end 06-first months 2007)

Just look Baltic Dry Index....No movement, strange....

 

Another good option could be making Equity Wrap with Oil Co. or Using the Short Side of a Relative Pair Trading Strategy with OIH

Also REITS for me imho, are again another short cos banks hasnt recognised real loan losses, 30-40% downside more in Real Estate still to appear in + Interest rates up by 2011-2012 .... The same as banks till they recapitalize so then Insurance SELL

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment alter ego
alter ego's picture

Thank you Hugo,

 

As every central banker knows, even misleads Central Bankers as Alan Greenspan or Ben Bernanke will tell you that your borrowing rate is a mirror image of your inflation rate.

 

What have droves that huge increase in interest rates in the past 4 recessions?

What droves that huge in interest rates is the same thing that droves that huge increase in inflation. Almost all increase has been drove by only one component of the CPI Index, the “Energy Component”.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The US  has no deal to offer as the ones Geitner implies.

Trade with the US can not be benefitial.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Jewelsnorth
Jewelsnorth's picture

Anyone catch that segment at the desk this morning (some time around 6:45am on CNBC Squawk Box) when Joe mentioned being scared of the economy collapsing and we'd be pushing living out of shopping carts like in "The Road", Carl said he'd have Joe's back and share shopping carts, and Becky added that she's stocked up with water in her basement?

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