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Frontrunning: January 14
- Roubini joins the bandwagon: The coming sovereign debt crisis (Forbes)
- So much for a strong showing by the consumer in December: retail sales fall 0.3% on expectations of a 0.5% rise, 2009 retal sales fall 6.2% - biggest drop since 1993 (Bloomberg)
- Initial claims pick up once again, add 11,000 to 444,000 (Bloomberg)
- David Boskin with a frank discussion of economic data manipulation by the government: Don't like the numbers? Change 'em (WSJ)
- No shit Sherlock: Merkel says Greece means Euro faces "difficult" time (Bloomberg) but, but, how will Bernanke kill the dollar then?
- Pin the tail on Blankfein is a game nobody wins (Bloomberg)
- Obama to unveil proposal on bank taxes (WSJ)
- Obama needs to cut his Wall Street tag (WaPo)
- Tim Iacono's 2010 predictions (Seeking Alpha)
- Did you buy a Ford today? Ford's comeback makes CEO Mullaly a star at Detroit auto show (Bloomberg)
- China defends censorship after Google threat (Reuters)
- Google's reasons for leaving China are not as pure as they seem (The New Republic)
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"Fitch says U.S. retail credit card defaults hit near-record levels with no relief in sight : U.S. consumers defaulted on store-branded credit cards at near-record levels during the holiday shopping season, with 2010 likely to bring more of the same trend, according to Fitch Ratings. Fitch's December Retail Credit Card Index results show that more than one in every eight dollars of receivables was written off as uncollectable during the November collection period on an annualized basis"
What would the retail sales figures be if they backed out people buying gifts on credit with no intention of paying?
Exactly. While these are retail cards, the trend is going to be similar for banks issued cards as well. People buy the goods, artificially inflate the numbers, default on the cards, banks take the hit, the Fed gives them more money in exchange for propping up numbers. At this point, every dollar that is defaulted on is coming out of the taxpayer's pocket.
What would the retail sales figures be if they backed out people buying gifts on credit with no intention of paying?
Clearly, the numbers would be a victory for the bulls.
Retail sales for the month were 353 billion. Roughly 25% of all transactions are cashless, so 88 billion of this was charged. If one dollar in eight was defaulted on, then retail sales were actually 342 billion. Back of the envelope calculation but it gives you a ballpark.
Live Hearings Day 2
mms://wms-rbn-sea010.rbn.com/cspan/cspan/wmlive/cspan2v.asf
Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere
However, an aging population, a sluggish economic recovery and higher unemployment will keep governments' entitlement spending high and revenues subdued. These factors might also make tax hikes politically challenging.
Well, I see the authors' college degrees finally paid off.
Watching Trichet today he seems a bit testy, ignoring one journalist that mentioned contingency plans in the event of a Greek default and also mentioning California in the same sentence as Greece implying California is a much greater problem.
He also seems to expect Ireland will make more sacrifices for German savers which is probable but not certain
This stuff just gets better and better
Bustmas
All the good news and green shoots means we should be in for another 60+ point day on the dow.
Somebody explain to me why the 30 year is rallying before a massive auction today. Who the hell is buying that toilet paper just to get run over when the auction goes south?
A sovereign debt crisis is extremly bullish for stocks i guess