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Frontrunning: January 3

Tyler Durden's picture





 
  • Hedge funds offered weak returns in 2010 (Reuters)
  • Wishful thinking: China's Inflation May Cool With Factory Slowdown (Bloomberg)
  • And some more: Big Firms Poised to Spend Again (WSJ)... then again they have been poised for about a year now...
  • And a little more: Investors' Forecast: Sunny With Chance of Overheating (WSJ)
  • Albert Edwards, SocGen bear, takes a bite out of China (Guardian)
  • Australia Hit by Devastating Floods (FT)
  • Congress Targets Spending (WSJ)
  • Euro Falls Most in Two Weeks on Concern Debt Crisis to Hamper Fund Raising (Bloomberg)
  • Manufacturing activity helps European rally (FT)
  • Massachusetts, Maine Issuers Sell Debt After Four-Month Slide: Muni Credit (Bloomberg)
  • Oil's Top Forecasters See Third Year of Gains as China Leads 2011 Recovery (Bloomberg)
  • China Expands Easing of Capital Controls on Exporters (WSJ)
  • Obama Aide: Debt Limit Fight Could Be "Catastrophic" (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Share Trading at Record on China Policy Concern, IPOs (Bloomberg)

Economic Highlights

  • Sweden December PMI Manufacturing 60.2-lower than expected. 61.0 Consensus.61.3 Previous.
  • Sweden Minutes MPC Meeting.
  • Switzerland December PMI Manufacturing 59.6 - lower than expected. 62.0 Consensus. 61.8 Previous.
  • Italy December PMI Manufacturing 57.2 - higher than expected. 56.3 Consensus. 56.3 Previous.

 

 


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Mon, 01/03/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bears puking up blood once again.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

you forgot the only chart that counts anymore.

 

Oil.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Beautiful slasher job this morning. Is it a POMO day today? The whole day has been a major run up from Asia to Europe. Buy the Fucking Dips!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment cclaeys
cclaeys's picture

light pomo, heavy pump....think the mullet are filling the nets. Good freaking grief, go look at the RUT, fakkin RVBD, et al cloud/saas bs, dont believe the hype. 

Flavor Aid for everyone

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Djirk
Djirk's picture

UNG on a tear....oh yeah that internet thing is hot again VMW, CSCO and CRM

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:08 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

My "Formula" remains 100% correct.

$1,650 Gold equals

12,500 Dow equals

$100 oil equals

Global economic boom of unparalled proportions.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Oil over 92; you must be puking up blood. Just $8 more and you are history.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

WTI, the only place to stick a nickle today.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

$100 oil and its time to prepare for the dow to be 6000 again. $120 and the crash is imminent. $150 and its time to get the fuck out of dodge. But who knows how long the runup can go. There's no boom like the housing one to fuel the fires, so I can't see how long it could last. Wildcard here is war - which I'm thinking can mean up to $200 oil.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Here's my formula, also 100% correct

$1,650 Gold equals

12,500 Dow equals

$100 oil equals

Global poverty of unparalleled proportions.

Nice news-free $0.25 take-down in Silver by the CRIMEX mafia this morning, though.  Well played.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:43 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Fuck yea. I love CRIMEX. I just wish I had their slasher schedule.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Let's be honest. Most of us care about our own poverty much more than global poverty. I will crush as many third world peasants as necessary to fund my kids' 504 college plans. Worries about global poverty distract from investing. good start on the futures today!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Well, good luck outrunning the pitchfork-weilding mobs if/when they get hungry enough to eat you and your college-bound progeny.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

A smart man will have some lead samples for the mobs. Anyway, pitchforks are out of style. Tar+Feathers is the way of the future - if you can afford the tar.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Heh - lead remains my favorite, and most abundently horded, precious metal.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Do you press your own brass? I've heard that's the best way to ensure supply. Since it appears that rounds are going to be in diminished supply as time goes on.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

I don't.  I have friends who do but don't really have the facilities (such as a garage) to do it myself.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I am long tar.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:47 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Doc J,

Please be wery wery quiet, we are waiting in ambush at the college.

Sincerely,

Pitchfork Weilding Mob, Esquire

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:52 | Link to Comment ??
??'s picture

Robo and Leo

ZeroHedge most accurate forecasters?  

 

without doubt.

 

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:18 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Hi Ho silver - blew past $31 overnight

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

blew past $31 again this morning.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment sheep92
sheep92's picture

If your formula is 100% correct why did you sell out your longs 10 days ago?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The Formula merely says that the only way gold reaches $1,650 is if the Dow screams higher in 2011.

And it says that if the Dow enters a major correction, gold will get hammered.

Like I said, I "made my year" in 2010, so I ejected 75% of my longs.

No need to be greedy when the AAII sentiment is pushed up this high.

I will re-enter my longs when we drop back down to the 50-day.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The market may leave you behind Robo, but I still love those boobs.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment sheep92
sheep92's picture

The spy/gld ratio has gone pretty much side ways the last 6 months with the middle around .90.

Why do you think this ratio is going to remain static ?  Just because it has for the last 6 months or is there some other reason?

From you formula I take it that you think a downside breakout in this ratio is not really in the cards.

How about an upside one ? Why?

thx

 

 

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Croesus
Croesus's picture

RT:

Could you please explain the math behind your $1650 Gold call?

Thank You!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Watch for the day the DOW hits 12,014.

After that, watch out below. This was a "received" message. Test it against your gut response.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/01/2011/

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment sheep92
sheep92's picture

Watch out for the S&P to open on its high for the year......

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

well, sure....it will OPEN there. Interesting that somebodies been buying the shit out of SDS pre-market - lot o' trades, good size lots. first at 23.50, then even more-so in 23.40's. can't all be HFT's

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I clicked on that link. Pure drivel. No information value. I want my five minutes back.  anyone can pontificate and complain about the system.  I want numbers and analysis.  It's not in your link.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Topcaller, just remember next time Don't click the link!

Simple. You take a chance with youtube vid links and the like right? Some funny, some meaningless. 

The web is like that. 

Here are your five minutes back, loaded with NUMBers and ANALysis.

http://danielamerman.com/articles/Hiding.htm

 

You are a top caller, I'm a top caller. Just remember, 12,014! 

;-)

ORI

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Frontrunning:

 

1.  Long cool aerospace companies while shorting pops in bulldozers will begin to work as a primary position.

2.  Retailers will jump out of the gate, and then weaken throughout the day [every day now and through March except days when phony retail comps are released].   BTW, $9-$11 burritos fall into this category.

3.  Criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers will start the year with their most important task, namely to knock down the price of gold.  They will largely succeed in January...but will ultimately fail by February.

4.  Silver, whatever it does, will be wild beyond belief, and no matter what I try to guess about it, I'll be wrong.

5.  Stocks priced for dot com will look like the newest and greatest thing today.  By Friday, however, it will be clear that criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers still ALREADY OWNS THEM.

6.  China has what appears to be a good week.  I say "appears" because criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers will insist that China has a good week by forcing money into its market strictly so that the DOW gets a morning bid.  China should be shorted incrementally and carefully [think bulldozers] because that nation is about to suddenly burst into inflation flames.

7.  Bight on America...what is there left to say anymore about this bank?  Perhaps, if the world's largest maker of bulldozers got together with average Joe, we could finally make a pairs trade here.  In the meantime, headlines persist in being horrific while the stock overtakes $14 because criminal syndicate options junkies say so.  It will be a sweet short...just not yet.

8.  Oil...what a criminal syndicate Wall Street crime!  Attention CFTC...get some integrity already.  Looking for an outside day that begins much like today...with an intraday collapse back below the intraday LOD...because this commodity is so far removed from any rationale for its price that it is priced for DOT freakin' COM!  Short the oil company with the bleakest future....

9.  Jan Hatzius will shop for personal security services this week.

10.  The Goldman Sachs and The Bernank will continue their very special crimes today [and when I say special I mean the biggest theft in the history of the world type crimes...for which the Rs and the Ds will reply with NOTHING.]

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Excellent tongue you have there in your cheek Cdad!

Funny!

Bight? Light or Blight?

ORI

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

My bad...typo.

Should read BLIGHT on America!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:46 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

i think i am in love with you, cDiDDy†

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I can't be bothered with replying to Robo's obvious trollbail, but the 10-year just crossed 3.4, up from 3.28.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:01 | Link to Comment ??
??'s picture

what's to respond to, other than to acknowledge that Robo has been correct while most of the equity doomers who frequent ZH have been incorrect.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:22 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

If you call posting charts of gold and commenting on it "precipitously falling", and then running away and hiding when it reverses course being "correct", then yes, he has been correct pretty consistently.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

yep - and TLT fading in pre-market: down 1% at 93.20

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Illinois Has Days to Plug $13 Billion Deficit That Took Years to Produce

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/illinois-must-plug-13-billion-d...

 

Let's see how the banksters squirm out of this one.  Is there a helicopter that flies high enough to drop FRNs on everyone?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

Someone is playing the softs pretty hard.... cotton corn soy...???

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Gotta love the WSJ article where Corning plans to spend again.. $300M in Corning, NY and $800M in China....

Word from CFO... "Hello America! We plan to spend and 70% of it won't be in the U.S.!"

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Everyone should become a Hedge Fund manager.

Where else do get a profit even in catastrophic or bad or negative years (always at least 2% of managed money), while raking in extreme amounts in boom years (20% of profit +).

It's the best business model ever invented - you can only profit - aside from being able to profit from printing fiat currency, which is in a whole other league.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Djirk
Djirk's picture

I love the smell of covered calls expiring in the morning (santa was good to me this year)

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