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Frontrunning: January 6

Tyler Durden's picture





 
  • Foreclosures May Be Undone by State Ruling on Mortgage Transfer (Bloomberg)
  • As expected, retail sales miss blamed on snow, although how icy conditions are preventing web surfing is beyond us: December retail sales dented by blizzard, frugality (Reuters)
  • Boehner Vows to Cut Size of Government (FT)
  • If at first you don't succeed... Obama renominates MIT economist Diamond for Fed Board (Reuters)
  • PBOC Extending Biggest Cash Crunch Since Lehman (Bloomberg)
  • Just a little more inflation: Coking Coal Contract Price May Rise 33% on Australian Floods (Bloomberg)
  • Andy Xie: This year may start out looking like the last, dipping down later and then resurfacing with hope. (MarketWatch)
  • Yes, banks really are doing everything they can to restore shadow banking: JP Morgan Markets Its Latest Doomsday Machine (or Why Repo May Blow Up the Financial System Again) (Naked Capitalism)
  • BofA Introduces Fees to Replace Debit-Card, Overdraft Charges (Bloomberg) - we are confident Elizabeth Warren will have a lot to say about this...hopefully she has something to do as well
  • Fed Should Stop Buying Bonds; It Is Falling Far Behind the Economy (David Malpass)
  • And just a little more: India Inflation Threat May Force Subbarao to Add to Rate Rises, IMF Says (Bloomberg)
  • Osborne Urges EU To Sort Out Banking System (FT)
  • China, Spain to Sign $7.3 Billion in Deals (WSJ)
  • A Goldman Unit Is Said to Have Rejected Facebook (NYT)
  • Five reasons why I'm not buying Facebook (Fortune)
  • Yuan Seen Theme in U.S.-China Meet (WSJ)
  • China Rare Earths Leave Toxic Trail to Toyota, Vestas (Bloomberg)

European economic highlights:

  • Denmark Unemployment 4.2%- lower than expected.Consensus 4.3%.Previous 4.2%.
  • Switzerland CPI (Dec) 0.5% y/y-higher than expected.Consensus 0.4% Previous 0.2%.
  • Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves 202.6B. Previous 212.4B.
  • Netherlands CPI (Dec) 1.9% y/y.Previous 1.6% y/y.
  • UK PMI Services (Dec) 49.7- lowerthan expected.Consensus 52.8.Previous 53.
  • Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Dec) 11-lower than expected.Consensus -10.2.Previous -9.4.
  • Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov) -0.8% m/m 0.1% y/y-lower than expected. Consensus 0.2% m/m 2.1% y/y.Previous 0.0% m/m 1.2% y/y.
  • Germany Manufacturing Orders ns. (Nov) 5.2% m/m-higher than expected. Consensus 1% m/m. Previous 1.6% m/m.
  • Germany Manufacturing Orders nsa. (Nov) 20.6% y/y-higher than expected. Consensus 15.9% y/y.Previous 17.9% y/y.
  • Ireland Unemployment Rate sa. (Dec) 13.4%. Previous 13.5%.
 


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Thu, 01/06/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

India raising rates. Sure. Banks are hurting for liquidity here, unlike the US. Savings rates offered by them fell off a cliff when the "credit explosion" mantra was thrust down their throats to fuel the insane housing bubble that shows no or little sign of letting up.

Indian's, for whom debt was anethma, are suddenly debt-junkies. If this consumer society is to be kept inflated, Mr. Subba Rao has a fine, delicate walk to walk.

No good outcomes here.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/stairwell-sigtar/

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 09:18 | Link to Comment BearishFeijoadaSushi
BearishFeijoadaSushi's picture

New measure to curb real rise in Brazil:

http://imarketnews.com/node/24629

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Ty - please start a discuss on the 5.50$ spread between Brent Crude and WTI - wtf?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Front Runner, phd

 

1.  The market will go all bat shit stupid over the weekly employment data, no matter if it is good or bad [because the market is broken].

2.  The Roach Motel [SPY] will be serving free bloody Mary's this morning, and criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers will be celebrating early there, which means it is likely they will quit the place early and we will have a poor market close today.

3.  Shares of the world's largest petroshrimp maker will represent today's dumbest idea in the  most counter intuitive category.  Options junkies and hedge fund managers will say the damnedest things today about this company...the kinds of things that cause Cdad's jaw to hit the floor.

4.  RIETs will make a poor showing today because keeping up the illusion that the US property market is great is simply no longer possible.  Simon Property Group will be the signal stock.

5.  Republicans will talk tough about fiscal responsibility while trying to throw a blanket on that whole disgusting tax extension compromise thingy where they demonstrated that they have no idea what fiscal responsibility is, making T bills great fodder for short selling.

6.  Criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers will continue to talk the notion of US decoupling even though all of us know that is stupid because most of us remember the same conversation from 2008 when said bankers told us that China would decouple from the US. [btw, this is a major red flag and usually marks the end of things like counter intuitive rallies in indices that only go up for months on end...but shhhhhhhh]

7.  Tyler's doctor will speak with him today about a trial pack of Prozac and what the drug may or may not be able to do regarding his chosen profession.  Tyler will ask instead for Xanax so that he can finally just stop giving a shit like the rest of The Street.

8.  Robo will draw a twelve month proxy chart for Xanax users which will indicate that Tyler Durdens have been falling for 12 months straight will Byron Wiens have been ramping like crazy for exactly that same amount of time.

9.  A large group of birds will die somewhere, and the US government will officially say, "Nothing to see here, move along and buy the S&P."

10.  Little Miss Euro is in a curious place this morning.  She is all knocked up by Ben Bernanke from his "intervention" two Friday's ago, and yet she is sitting in exactly the same place where the knocking up occurred.  So the question is, will Ben Bernanke [or some Chinese guy] intervene again?  Now I have a tendency to think, in situations like this, that intervening again exactly here would be so obvious, and would so obviously reveal the nature or our new status as a Banana Republic Tree World, that the intervention would NOT occur.  However, I am usually wrong at times like this because I don't take Xanax and I tend to give a shit...so you tell me?  Will Ben bang little Miss Euro again today [despite her delicate condition]?  It would be foolish as the news out of that continent continues to really suck....so....?  OK....I'm supposed to be front running so I'm going with....NO, Little Miss knocked up Euro sees 1.29 to the USD today...on her way to the halfway house at 1.26.

 

Good luck navigating this travesty of a stock market.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Salinger
Salinger's picture

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Thu, 01/06/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Djirk
Djirk's picture

I wasa reading the BBC online "business"....two article titles on the same page:

"World food prices hit all time highs"

"Fed full steam ahead on QE2"

Stop the madness but trade the badness

 

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Sweedumz
Sweedumz's picture

Actually, the Irish unemployment figures are slightly incorrect here (typo?). There was actually a monthly increase from 13.2% to 13.5%.(source: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0106/jobs.html)

A few important points to note about these figures.

  1. December unemployment is normally down due to seasonal part time employment.
  2. Emigration is contributing signifigantly to keeping the true rate down. Figures here are based on the Live Register, that is the amount of people claiming unemployment benefit each month. This is currently at around 437,000 (Total pop ~4 million). However, estimates are that about 100,000—mostly young—people have already emigrated.
  3. Expect the January/February figures to jump signifigantly. The retail christmas seasons was utterly appalling owing to the bad weather, the general recession, and increasing in taxes, insurance and electricity bills.

You guys might also be interested in this article about Irish depositors fleeing to Swiss banks. (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/01/05/swiss-bank-vaults-filling-up-wi...)

In addition, I note here that the Irish General Election campaign has already begun. The major left wing Labour party has directly called for bank bond holders to take a hit, and they will almost certainly be in a colaition government within about three months. Fine Gael(center right), most likely to be the senior party in the coalition, are far more conventional in their thinking. Fianna Fail(center right~gombeen men), the party currently in power, are facing decimation in the polls in March(But in my opinion will return within about 4 years).

The dark horse in the coming Irish General election is Sinn Fein(left? right? nationalist), best known as the political wing of the IRA. Their leader Gerry Adams is actually running for a seat(He's widely believed to have been the leader of the IRA during the Troubles in Northern Ireland in the 1970s). These guys are radical by just about any standard. They are for completely burning all and any bank bondholders, firing and jailing bankers, radically cutting public service salaries and pensions, and also inversting in jobs. They're picking up a lot of votes from all sides to be frank, and Adam's might be the Kingmaker in the next government.

 

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