Frontrunning: July 2

• There goes the upside case: 467k job cuts on 363k expected, 9.5% unemployment, 14.7 million officially unemployed (BLS, AP)
• And not just the US - Unemployment up to 9.5% in Eurozone as well (BBC)
• In the same time over in La-La land... (FT)
• Band Aid feature of the day: Europe to give $1.7 billion to Latvia (NYT)
• Exelon raises hostile bid for NRG to $7.5 billion (Reuters)
• Porsche loan requests likely to fail says state official (Bloomberg)
• Ireland next: Moody's cuts rating from AAA to Aa1 (MarketWatch)
• Jonathan Weil: Crisis won't end until balance sheets get real (Bloomberg)
• Rise in asset prices: new challenge for Asian banks (Morgan Stanley)
• Treasury to name 9 toxic managers (WSJ) [no, PIMCO? Blackrock? really? what a total shock]
• Speaking of Bill Gross: "Bon" or "Non" Appetit (PIMCO)
• ISM Manufacturing: no V-shaped recovery (Wachovia)
• Inflation or Hyperinflation? (Merk Mutual Funds)
• Gallup: Investor optimism tumbles in June (Gallup)

Big thanks to Dan, Baker, Paul, and Aleksey for their very generous donations and support

Comments

[Consistently_In...]

So... we can expect SPX to be in the green by 1/2% to 1% by the end of the day?

[KC]

Well thank God the recession is finally over.......

[mattoso]

In JPM We Trust

[Arm]

All others pay cash

[Gabriel Gray]

Damn, ADP number was off by only 5k this time. Factory orders up next.

[Anonymous]

AP:

"Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June, driving the unemployment rate up to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, ...
June's payroll reductions were deeper than the 363,000 that economists expected.
However, the rise in the unemployment rate from 9.4 percent in May wasn't as sharp as the expected 9.6 percent."

How do you have a larger than expected loss of nonfarm jobs but also have a smaller than expected increase in unemployment?

Is this discouraged workers, or...?

[Anonymous]

People now are getting paid the SAME WAGES as they did in 2000. But are prices at 2000 levels? HELL NO. So they go into debt, adding more layers tothe USA debt ponzi scheme.

Obama's policies may not be working as well as many had hoped:

1st 100 days - There are 2.9 million more people unemployed in May than there were unemployed in January. The unemployment rate went from 7.6% to 9.4%. Since May 2008, we have lost 5.5 million jobs. The biggest losers

were:
Manufacturing 1.5 million lost
Finance & Prof Serv 1.5 million lost
Construction 1.1 million lost
Retail & Leisure 1.3 million lost

good finance articles

http://www.bit.ly/12NCJR

[gookempucky]

Funny how things are spun spun spun----hell of course ADP numbers will drop because as time goes on the there will be no business's left that have employees let alone business--I wonder how that will be spun--DK hey look at this line UE numbers are dropping because there is no employment--see I told you it would get better.
ZH only non-fiction book left on the shelf.

[Anonymous]

Jun Overall Workweek -0.1 Hour To 33 Hours

[Arm]

meep, meep, meep

[Anonymous]

I can see the case for a recovery argument IF AND ONLY IF you are thinking in terms of the usual inventory-based paradigm.

* Stock market has been up in Q2 --> leading indicator
* Jobs market has been down in Q2 --> lagging indicator
* Manufacturing orders are up M/M (most since 6/08) --> leading indicator

So most of these economists running around the news shows have been trained to see this pattern as indicative of positive GDP growth in the 6-month timeframe (late 3Q09).

I suspect the numbers may be fudged to show exactly that.