Frontrunning: March 9

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Wed, 03/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1032584 ivars
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My view, expressed in following simple February 6th DJIA and Oil charts for 2011-2012. USA will have to tighten soon, leading to second recession in q4 2011-q1 2012 and all 2012-2013. Except, oil will not go down, but up, because of continuing supply disruptions due to widening political instability in all ( except Norway) oil exporter countries. The inflation will be not there, so other commodities may well take a pause. But NOT oil. Recession in the USA starting in q1 2012 (and elsewhere) will only make a small dip in oil prices ( down to 2012 April Brent 135-150 USD/bbl).

Just two charts, clear picture. The punctuated supply disruption events multiplies by reduced investment in extraction capacity is responsible for swings in oil price. 

If there is correlation between DJIA change and GDP growth, the coming USA recession in q1 2012 and beyond will be minus 2%-4% quarter on quarter annually.

USD will stay strong, and military protection in general and especially of Oil resources will be bought in the USD. There will be no USD hyperinflation, thanks to Oil prices taking out energy of QE xxx and further fiscal deficits as they will only pay for Oil, not growth.

This is an endgame for monetary and fiscal easing.

As it does not have any argument left in it. Which it never had, but now everyone sees it.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 09:44 | 1032600 Careless Whisper
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Connecticut Governor: A new car that costs more than $50,000 is a luxury. I'll tax it. Trading in a car. Tax that too. Getting a haircut. Taxed. Beer? more taxes. Gasoline? Exxon shouldn't have all the fun. Granny in a nursing home? You didn't pull the plug, so Taxed! Earning minimum wage? More taxes for you.

Here's a list of the CT governor's tax hikes:

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 09:56 | 1032625 ivars
ivars's picture

Just when the time is to start getting short, people here in many posts are getting hysterically nihilistic about events that should tell them endgame has started, also for stock market.

Which is one of signs that its true endgame. It starts when no one even in ZH anymore believes it will.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:03 | 1032633 UninterestedObserver
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What a stupid fucking comment

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:03 | 1032637 dcb
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The endgame is when we get rid of the federal reserve. the hosing crisis was made worse by bernanke's liquidity which drove oil up to 147, that deepened the recession and made the housing crisis worse. then collapse. he thopught things would be contained f=because he didn't understand how his injections of liquidity would raise the price of oil and deepen the recession.

the scenario I have talked about since we started this mess would be this cycle would keep happening over and over again and each and every time this happened the bernake would add stimulus. It's why I go to sleep each and every day with a prayer he will slip and fall and hit his head, or have a car accident, or the american people will finially engage in revolt against this tyrant.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:05 | 1032642 Careless Whisper
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Carl Icahn to his investors: Market heading lower and I don't want to take your stinkin' phone calls. Here's your money back.


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:27 | 1032731 Mr. Poon
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Short Bloomberg:

"Americans want to have cake and eat it too, poll shows."

Also, loved this quote from the article:

"We all know people who are in debt yet cannot for the life of them figure out where the money goes."

I dearly love the American electorate (no really, I do), but that pretty much describes them at this point.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:52 | 1033677 glenlloyd
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Wed, 03/09/2011 - 10:26 | 1032739 buzzsaw99
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the sec is more rife with joos than the fed these days.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 14:54 | 1033686 glenlloyd
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I think Larry McD may have made the same mistake about Chinese holdings of US debt as was done in the thread from yesterday...or so it appears. Looks like he compared pre and post revision levels perhaps.

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