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Frontrunning: November 18
- Housing starts plunge 10%; has been a while since CNBC uttered green shoots (Bloomberg)
- Consumer prices increase 0.3% (0.2%) core as Americans pay more for gas (Bloomberg)
- Private equity funding plunges 62% at Calpers amid fee review (Bloomberg)
- Low U.S. stock trading volume heralds more gains (Bloomberg) with momentum algos marginal buyers as market-economy decoupling accelerates
- The other side of the dollar: The truth behind currency devaluation (MarketWatch)
- China does not like carry trade (Falkenblog)
- Mexico, Colombia plan samurai bond issues to tap Japan investors (Bloomberg) [waiting for Mauritius to plan dollar bond issue to "tap US investors"]
- Job creation: a massive stimulus fraud (Investors Business Daily)
- Russia may concede stronger ruble as oil spurs gains, Bernanke rejoices (Bloomberg)
- Delta, Sky Team offer $1 billion to Japan Airlines (AP)
- Citi raises salaries for CFO, global market head (AP)
- PIMCO chosen by regulators to review insurer home-loan holdings (Bloomberg)
- Did the MarkIt group, a black box company owned by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, devastate markets (Deep Capture)
»
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I have been back and forth on the prospects of recovery and find some very strange and inconsistent data in the Recreational Vehicle market, which seems to be improving nicely. RV manufactures are adding workers and having trouble filling backlogged orders. Does anyone have any thoughts about what this means?
People are walking away from their $750k homes that are way underwater and moving into motor homes. ;-)
Just curious as to what market data you are reviewing?
I would suggest a trip to Elkhart, Indiana (remember Obama visited there during the election as it was one of the hardest hit areas?) where trailers/RVs/conversions vans comprise a large portion of the workforce.
Thor, Jayco, and Heartland have added employees - but it could be argued it has more to do with consolidation than it does to growth.
From the WSJ...
"..helped Thor avoid the financial disasters that led to bankruptcy filings by its two big rivals. Those companies—Fleetwood Enterprises and Monaco Coach—had accounted for half of the industry's preslump shipments."
Lose half the industry shipment due to bankruptcy - hire 50 people.
Good point. Also, who buys RVs: Old farts. They might be feeling pretty flush with the recent rise in the markets.
The government is a HUGE buyer in the custom coach(RV) market. Ever since 9/11 police and federal forces have been buying in such large quantities many traditional RV customizers are relying solely on government work. Its a great gig buy a brand new RV tear it apart, put in a command station and slap on a huge pricetag most agencies want to pay top dollar. The whole war on immigration has helped support this business also!
So I guess the answer is WE the people are buying these RVs for our gov.
O-team admin has a first time buyers credit for RV homes and lots of other motorized gadgets that are mostly made in China.
The government is a HUGE buyer in the custom coach(RV) market. Ever since 9/11 police and federal forces have been buying in such large quantities many traditional RV customizers are relying solely on government work. Its a great gig buy a brand new RV tear it apart, put in a command station and slap on a huge pricetag most agencies want to pay top dollar. The whole war on immigration has helped support this business also!
So I guess the answer is WE the people are buying these RVs for our gov.
I assume it's the beginning of the Baby Boomers retirement plan. Think about how future retirees from say New England were thinking just a couple of years ago: sell your house upon retirement, walk away with anywhere from $500k to $1 million (conservative), plunk down a couple of hundred on a condo in FL and live off the rest plus, SS and whatever retirement money you have.
Now, your house is worth half its 07 appraisal, your kids and grandkids live in the basement, you sold out of your 401k last spring and swore to never go near stocks again and that condo you loved in FL is available at a decent price but because the building is now 50% empty, your maintenance fees will be through the roof.
So grab yourself a Winnebago and if gas gets too expensive, or you run out of money, you can always drive it off a cliff.
LMAO
Obama Warns Of Possibility Of 'Double-Dip' Recession - Fox News
What a refreshing change of transparency coming from the White House, the significance of which is still not upon the markets this morning.
The markets will love it, because it means stimulus package 2 is on the way.
So ppi food costs across the board were up 5 to 25 percent month on month per yesterday report. Today the consumer is paying up .1 percent with meats vegetables and fruits down? Either one is wrong or grocers are firing more people today. Nice to see after the biggest housing bust in history that oer fell for the first time since 1992. The CPI is a complete joke.
Hmmm, shitty econ data on OE Wednesday? What can possibly happen to keep the market from selling off? Hmmmm, maybe a little $ sell off will do the trick.
It started about 9:05.
"Mendelson was named among the top three technical analysts in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll in 16 of the past 32 years."
16 of 32? How does he rank amongst Coin-Flipping Investors?
Equities will have to take a hit today. USD is once again close to 75 and must be pumped back up.
Unless of course they're finished playing with this fucking yo-yo.
Regarding the RV manufacturing, the RV park down the road here in Manvel Tx built a bus stop near its entrance, now 6 or 7 kids pick up the school bus here, bus stop was put in last spring. for years the RV park catered to the "snow birds" down from up north.
It is becoming increasingly difficult, even for the most Pollyanna-ish investor, to believe the economy is getting better. Indeed, most people, if they have not done so already, are at least considering that the deterioration might be resuming. What investors are left with is a game of chicken. The gains since March have been fabulous, and one would hate to watch them evaporate. All but the most ignorant must also know that there is no volume or no bid into which one can sell if selling needs to be done.
So the question one has to ask him/herself...am I feeling lucky (until the end of the year)? Should I hold on in a kind of porcine-ish “we all want to beat the market and get a good bonus this year” collusion, or do I break ranks and book my gains by being the first one to sell? Do I dare to be a hero?
Value placed on paper printing > housing, in today's market...
PCL in the green on that great housing starts number.
No clever seque. Sorry. It is what it is...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAyHIOg5aHk
Another tin-foil hatter: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAyHIOg5aHk
How did you miss this one?
Jimmy Carter Part Deux
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/11/obama_approval_below_50_per_ce.html
Market Watch- Todd Harrison:
The other side of the dollar - Commentary: The truth behind currency devaluation"The first scenario is the continued socialization of markets, bearded nationalization of troubled institutions and inflation through dollar devaluation, punishing savers who've preserved capital."
"Deflation in a fractional reserve banking system means policymakers have, for all intents and purposes, lost control of the economy. It would also impact the top-tier of the societal spectrum tied to financial assets, which would be problematic for politicians and the constituencies that bankroll them."
PI: The above paragraph, my dear friends, is what this is really all about...
"The favored scenario of those pulling the strings is...government sponsored euphoria enabled corporate America to roll mountains of debt, potentially buying itself a few more years. If the plan plays through, those same corporations will transfer the risk (through issuance) to an unsuspecting public before the next wave of crisis arrives. Rinse and repeat again and again..."
That is an excellent analysis. Todd is a hammer that spends his day hitting nails on the head.
Thanks for posting that one Tyler.