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Frontrunning: October 12
- Watch for another 2009 market high today with no market volume
- Sunoco, Valero shut refineries as winter no match for fuel glut (Bloomberg) even as oil goes higher (Reuters)
- Iceland shrinks 8% as prices increase 11% in deepest recession (Bloomberg)
- Writedowns on mortgage servicing make even JPMorgan vulnerable (Bloomberg, h/t Paul)
- A path to downward mobility (WaPo)
- Mating in London means 4,000 people meet over price for metals (Bloomberg)
- A fan of a dying dollar: Krugman, with Misguided monetary mentalities (NYT)
- And the opposite view: To fix the global economy, fix the dollar (Forbes)
- Prices in global markets have gone surged for months, but now is the time to be rational (TimesOnline)
- One hand clapping theory analyzed (Mish)
- The mess in California: Arnie lifts veto threat as water bond talks progress (Bloomberg)
- In the "well consider the source, son" category: Goldman's O'Neil says crisis fiscal costs are exaggerated (Bloomberg)
- Deja vu all over again (Brown Brothers Harriman)
- Gold at $1,500? Don't hold your breath (Telegraph)
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Link is busted for the "Sunoco, Valero shut refineries as winter no match for fuel glut" Bloomberg article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aZfIACtKTlSk
I took the Swine Flu nasal inhaler on Friday and I was sick all weekend. Now I just feel very, very strange. I'm glad it's holiday today.
What part of the country are you in?
It was interesting to see Gold, Oil, Dollar, and Equity futures were way up before the market open. Market pops green at open and BOOM, dollar takes a dump and the market pops harder. Interesting to see that Banks aren't participating much though in this rally....GS is barely up....
-Michael
How about that Scharzman memo: Bad times are behind us, things can only go up from here, so we're SELLING lock, stock and barrel now. As Cramer would say: SELL SELL SELL
Andy Xie has a new piece on Caijing
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-10-12/110279505.html
For Economic Stimuli, A revolving Exit Door
"...the global economy is cruising toward mild stagflation with a 2 percent growth rate and 4 percent inflation rate. This scenario is the best that the central banks can hope to achieve; it combines an acceptable combination of financial stability, growth and inflation. But this equilibrium is balanced on a pinhead. It requires central banks to constantly manage expectations. The world could easily fall into hyperinflation or deflation if one major central bank makes a significant mistake...."
Definitely worth a read.
Goldman "chill out" Sachs, chief economist Jimbob O'Neil sez that people need to just "chill out" and not worry about the big deficits and the asset purchase programs (bonds) and don't worry about any "unconventional monetary policy".
What Mr. O'Neill doesn't understand is that we not worried, we angry.
With all their money you would think that Goldman would be a little better in the PR department.
Kiss of death on the trend line starting from the low in July (SPX). Would also be a double top.
Still drunk from Saturday night?
I'd like to nominate a link to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on shale gas:
Energy crisis is postponed as new gas rescues the worldhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/629929...
Perhaps someone(s) qualified to comment could let us know if this is just blowing hot air?
Ha, even better - get some peak oilers in here and let us toy with them.
The article was correct. It's messy, i.e. not very green because of leaks. And even worse, it takes a lot of water. As long as the U.S. upholds its environmental laws, we can still extract the gas, just at a slightly higher cost. And remember, don't confuse oil/gas with money. You have to compare oil/gas to ENERGY units, not dollars.
Those are the family jewels? Eh
GS is right not to worry
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Monday slapped "for sale" signs on 3 billion pounds ($4.8 billion) worth of assets in an effort to plug a growing hole in the government's budget.
Under the plan, the government would unload stakes in betting company The Tote, a portfolio of student loans, the cross-Channel rail link between England and France and the government's 33% stake in uranium processor Urenco.
Any comments on s&p index errors this morning? Did we ever break 1080?
Nope, got to 1079.46. But the day isn't over yeat.
It was pretty boring today so I turned on CNBC. Decided to play the CNBC drinking game.
When they said DOW 10,000 I had to take a drink. When they said better than expected I had to take a drink.
When they said "we hit a yearly high" I had to take a drink.
I was drunk by 10 am. Then I saw Beaker, and I was glad I was.
They did say MANY people said we would get there today.
What a pathetic excuse for a business channel. I had to turn it off. Couldn't stand it any longer.
What was the exact time on that 1079.46?
Tipo, before going “Snoopy dancing”, study the decline curves on the shale gas wells. After that sobers you up, then take a look at the economics of the well drilling costs verses gas prices. Peak oil does not mean "no more supply", just that we are at a production capacity peak which can be a function of several variables, including damage to the credit systems to finance the new well drilling needed to keep up with the decline in production. Think about it, it is not a difficult concept to grasp. And for extra credit, Peak Oil is not the end of the world, but it may be the end of the easy life for many people in “advanced economies”. Typically metros where a majority of people think vegetables come from the grocery. Learn to garden, it is good to get outside and breath fresh air. Vaya con Dios (and soon would you, it will make the remaining supply go further for the rest of us)
Regarding:
Energy crisis is postponed as new gas rescues the world
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/629929...
Perhaps someone(s) qualified to comment could let us know if this is just blowing hot air?
My friend and neighbor is the head of a smallish (25+- trucks) gas-shale-fractioning company in Texas. He said to me last weekend that he believes that with the new technology now in play, we (the USA) really don't need to drill another gas well for at least 20 years, if not 50 years. The price of gas and the gas-rig activity reports certainly agree with him.
two cold winters will beg to differ, that is without any war games extending into Iran. any exporting disruptions from the ME and we will see emergency actions like nothing anyone thought possible in a "free" country. eat your wheaties while you can, kids, they may not always be so available.
Wow that iceland story is tragic. The IMF are really fucking them over hard core.
Wow. That article on Iceland is very scary -"stock market down 97%!"
Better check my stop losses before listening to anymore of the cheerleaders on todays Kudlow report - "Don't worry the recession is oooover....
Wow. That article on Iceland is very scary -"stock market down 97%!"
Better check my stop losses before listening to anymore of the cheerleaders on todays Kudlow report - "Don't worry the recession is oooover....
It's a slow day when anyone, anywhere is writing or reading columns on MSR valuations. The only thing more boring than to run analytical evaluations on them is to read about it.