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Frontrunning: October 6
- Oil states refute talks of replacing dollar (Reuters, h/t Austrian Filter)
- AUD ripfest as Australia raises interest rate to 3.25% (AP), while America is still at -6% +/-
- National retal group offers weak holiday forecast (AP)
- Chrysler may not make it another year (Mopar Muscle, h/t Patrick)
- Ferguson: There's no such thing as too big to fail in a free market (Telegraph)
- How the Fed can avoid next bubble (WSJ)
- Burned bondholders demand movies, bowling alley claims for junk (Bloomberg)
- Irrational expectations (National Post)
- Goldman, Intel give profit "a pulse" after record two year drop (Bloomberg)
- As Delphi emerges from bankruptcy, executive regrets the bumpy ride (WSJ)
- Russian steel writedowns loom, slump wrecks ambitions (Bloomberg)
- The Fed exit and role of BLOBs (Cumberland Advisors)
»
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The WSJ actually has an article titled "How the Fed can avoid the next bubble"? One would think that the Fed is the next bubble, or current bubble that is getting worse. The news about oil producing nations replacing the dollar is disturbing, although some might say it is only "talk and speculation" and all deny it thus far, the very fact that this is making onto the media waves speaks volumes. It seems this Admin/Fed/GS isn't fooling anyone the way the may (and with their arrogance and hubris, why wouldn't they assume it?) think they are.
Just setting us all up for an even bigger let down in the near future.
Bummer.
re: Arab conspiracy to drop the dollar
getting out of the dollar would be an logical consideration for these countries.
Sounds like a top of the move story to me. I mean it's coming from the Independent!
The fact that the markets are lapping this up, makes me think a dollar rally is coming.
You might be right, especially if equities crash. Dollar strength would only be short term though imo
IMHO it's the other way around. With the dollar being used to support all asset classes, the dollar is the lead in any dance at this point.
Tango anyone?
Why would the equities crash? there's nothing to suggest that. I forget who was the person interviewed, but he said something along the lines of the worser things will get, the higher the stock market will go. I sincerely think he's onto something.
Yeah, agree. There's a reason why they invented the term "Fisk-ing".
A weak dollar would only mean 1 thing...inflation. So I guess thats why the stock market is going higher no matter what. That drubbing on thursday last week was an entry point I guess. Instead I entered with a short position and is paying for it.
Before the Fed starts thinking about how to prevent the next bubble they need to stop blowing the current bubble.
National retail group offers weak holiday forecast.
Green shoots. Deferred spending is cash on the sidelines.
See, I can do it to. Up is down, left is right, forward is backward. Gee, this is fun.
What about, as I have seen elsewhere-- "Holiday Sales Dip to be Milder Than Last Year"
Yeah, it's just like driving the spaceship in "Independence Day".
Marshall and Isley just gave Q3 guidance that is as bad as would be expected, of course well below market expectations...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Marshall-Ilsley-Corporation-prnews-2542865...
Traders are giving them some credit today for finally starting to mark down a bit. And supposedly they have just about run out of good loans on their books, so there are no more loans to classify as new bad loans.
Marshall & Ilsley said bad loans fell in the third quarter for the first time on a sequential basis in four years, a possible sign that the credit woes affecting banks may have peaked.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125483284569267437.html
Too bad it's a day late and a USD short for them. Just starting to write down now, and look what it does to already horrible guesstimates. The last of the weak shorts should be bailing out this morning.
Can somebody tell Pisani that Austrailia raised rates, that's twice now he has said they cut rates.
To be honest, what good would it do? Pisani is experiencing a cognitive dissonance and the emotional pain is so great (he just can't believe any country would raise interest rates because it doesn't fit his current world view) that he keeps reversing the news to relieve the emotional pain.
Sort of a Freudian slip. This is how a cognitive dissonance plays out in real life. It happens to the best of us. Just not on live TV.
So, the Aussie overnight rate is MORE than our 10-year Treasury Rate.
Hmmm.
Makes sense I guess.
Great news from Intel. Too bad it's from the biggest liar in the entire chip sector.
We want a strong dollar and not a weak one. I think I speak for every American when I say this. We dont want to take the brunt of it to save the world. If we have to go down, I rather we take everyone else with us. If others dont like it, then they can speak to our atomic bomb.
Right back to the trend line on fresh air, selling 1055.
Very nice. Miracle bids at the closing bell to erase the red from IYR, BAC, C, countless others...
I think the defense of the dollar is about to start. They are going to hold the line on gold. Many people are gonna bust here on this rally and it's gonna happen faster than a 10 second refresh.
All you need is Epic Failure in the next series of bond auctions...
There is nothing to see here. Saudi Arabia will cock block this. They are basically are 51st state. And as the article states, it would be difficult to pull this proposed move off without the Saudis.
I disagree with a lot of you.
Like a few others, I see this "dead cat bounce" rally coming to an end before the end of the year. When that happens, and the slide starts, as it will once it becomes too obvious to ignore the economy's horrible fundamentals, there will be a stampede into Treasuries like you won't believe. Ergo, no weak dollar.
In a normal industrial economy, a "strong" dollar would be just what we don't want in bad times. But as we are no longer a "producer" economy, a strong dollar turns logic on its head making our imports cheaper - especially oil.
And I regard the market "noise" generated by quants trading with themselves as just that - noise.
Just waiting for the next exogenous event to restore the market to its secular bear trend.
KptLt. Laughing Swordfish
9er Unterseeboote Flotille