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Frontrunning: September 10

Tyler Durden's picture




 
  • July trade deficit at decade high $32 billion, Cash For Clunkers leads to jump in auto imports: Obama is now officially subsidizing the Japanese economy (AP)
  • Wen Jiabao: "China can not and will not pull back from economic stimulus measures" - let the bubbles continue forever (Bloomberg)
  • London suicide connects Lehman lesson missed by Hong Kong woman (Bloomberg)
  • Bernanke: Greenback's new father (NYT)
  • Jobless claims yoyo around as more and more people move to "exhausted" list (Bloomberg)
  • Never say never to monetization (SafeHaven)
  • Inflation or deflation: how about both (Seeking Alpha)
  • Seasonality: S&P 500 return by month (Ritholtz)
  • Good billions after bad (Vanity Fair, h/t Geoffrey)
  • CDO Pricing: Copula implied by risk neutral dynamics (DefaultRisk)
  • Obama shifts healthcare to moral ground (FT)
  • Goldman CEO lashes out at big paydays (Fortune)
  • Weekly economic commentary (Raymond James)
  • It's still the economy, stupid (WSJ)
  • And lastly, John Jansen smacks down Zero Hedge (Business Insider) - please click, traffic much needed

 

 

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Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:09 | 64795 . . .
. . .'s picture

Tyler D:  Obama shits healthcare to moral ground (FT)

------------

Funny typo.  Even your careless errors are witty.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:16 | 64800 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There are three main continuing claims programs: State contuing claims (that number reported in the press), the Federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (new program started in 2008), and the now Federal/State, formerly just State "Extended Benefits" program. The EUC and EB programs' data lags the "contuing claims" number by one week. Therefore, the most complete data is from August 22.

In the week of August 22, the real contuing claims number hit 9,788,448, surpassing the previous high of the recession 9,726,080 from June 27.

People continue to move off of the State claims, onto the Federal claims.

Obviously, no one in the press or hedge fund world seems to know and/or care about this. With no improvement in this real continuing claims numbers, these companies and analysts who seem to be raising estimates and guidance every day now will realize they made a big mistake in about two quarters.

22-Aug 9,788,448
15-Aug 9,629,696
8-Aug 9,660,992
1-Aug 9,557,535
25-Jul 9,577,202
18-Jul 9,487,075
11-Jul 9,260,272
4-Jul 9,305,347
27-Jun 9,726,080
20-Jun 9,589,660
13-Jun 9,474,884
6-Jun 9,431,551
30-May 9,453,166
23-May 9,159,030
16-May 9,244,953
9-May 9,021,607
2-May 8,944,249
25-Apr 8,621,170
18-Apr 8,612,554
11-Apr 8,525,310
4-Apr 8,212,325
28-Mar 8,012,824
21-Mar 8,006,800

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:27 | 64809 deadhead
deadhead's picture

thank you for this analsysis...it is appreciated.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:35 | 64817 Oso
Oso's picture

awesome. can u provide the link for the data?

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 10:44 | 64875 SDRII
SDRII's picture

the cont claims # you use are SA while the Extended benifits are NSA - if you use the NSA numbers for both the numbers are equally scare but droopped 5K last week

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 11:11 | 64911 msorense
msorense's picture

"realize they made a big mistake in about two quarters."

Excellent post, but these people don't care about their mistakes.  Their propaganda has successfully moved the market upwards allowing their masters (corporate insiders, banksters, etc.) to make out like bandits.  It's mission accomplished as far as they are concerned.  After it all comes crashing down they will dust themselves off and start up again with exactly the same BS and there will always be a greater fool there to listen.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:23 | 64805 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

I have decided that there is no such thing as a 'bad' trade number:

  • Deficit continues, but rise in imports is better than exports... green shoots because consumer demand is up.
  • Deficit continues, but rise in exports is better then imports... green shoots because we have increased internal productivity and our produced 'stuff' is in demand across the world.

Bloomberg was so happy this morning I just wanted to reach through the radio speaker and choke them... do they ever stop to think that we are still in a trade deficit... which is not sustainable over the long run.  If China thought a trade deficit was a great thing then I would assume they would stop all manufacturing in their country, issues notes for the world to buy, and import everything they needed.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:26 | 64806 deadhead
deadhead's picture

an outstanding post Minnesota...well spoken!

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:32 | 64813 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

It's sad that Bloomberg is headed the way of CNBS.  Their headlines on .com are out of control.  The upside is when they go to all naked reporting on TV they have some talent. 

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 10:42 | 64873 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Saw a headline run across the ticker while watching bloomberg yesterday that said, "baltic dry index rises on increased shipping demand"

Baltic dry was up +24 yesterday and is up +1 today
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
(please find the green shoots on this chart)

We are now in the twilight zone when bloomberg starts getting all green shooty and puts out misleading "news"

As my mother would say, "Shame on you"!!!!!!

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:27 | 64808 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

And one more thing... John Carney... and yes I know that you will read this... that was petty... very, very petty... and smacks of desperation... can you find nothing better to write about.  I read Business Insider everyday... but really now... that was non-newsworthy and beneath you.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:30 | 64811 Manfred
Manfred's picture

worth a visit to his site

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/morning-post_10.html

Remember I have been begging for a larger pullback to set divergences on the weeklys and then the final sucker run to the top. This is still a possibility, but looking less likely. I have also been a staunch proponent of something "external" happening to rip the market away from the manipulators grasp to begin P3. When the fall starts, you will know it. It will be brutal and I am speculating at least two market closures on the way down. Investors know the fall is coming. they experienced the last fall and will not hesitate to head for the gates this time.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:32 | 64814 Oso
Oso's picture

Poland had a failed bond auction.  Only half were subscribed.  BNP recommending polish bonds across the curve.  Precedent for all of eastern Europe and Baltics.  I thought Poland was supposed to be the healthiest...?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=avBAjJd7jvq8

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:43 | 64823 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Bloomberg should hang on to a working copy of this article... so in 6 months they can just 'find and replace' Poland with the United States.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 10:10 | 64847 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

We have that already with many auctions having an indirect bid level of around 50%.

Poland needs to discover the joys of QE.

 

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:46 | 64825 Ruth
Ruth's picture

As Krugman tries to explain How Economists Got It Wrong http://tinyurl.com/ldvlsl guess they forgot to put MASSIVE CORRUPTION IN THE MIX!

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:57 | 64837 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Yep... I would hate to have worked the last 30 years on something such as a 'comprehensive economic theory to prevent a future Depression' and then find out it was based on a foundation of BS... kinda like working your whole life to develop a vaccine to prevent cancer, then once the vaccine is administered to the broad population the entire human race dies from the an adverse effect that you had overlooked.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:53 | 64831 Veteran
Veteran's picture

Yo TD

As an aside thanks for putting Washington's Blog on the blogroll.  I'm finding it very well written and thought provoking

Thanks

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:58 | 64839 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

I love how we are disintermediating our own business credit markets with the cash for clunkers programs so that we can bolster the Japanese and Korean economies.

Central planning.  The way to a glorious future.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 09:59 | 64842 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You can get the data from the Department of Labor web site. It puts out a press release each week on unemployment claims. I've been keeping track of the numbers in an Excel file for months.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
Here's the link to this week's press release.

Just type "dol jobless claims" into google and the first link will be the press release each week.

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 11:46 | 64974 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The details of Lehman's lending, and particularly its borrowing practices needs, in the absence of a major motion picture, a microscopic examination.

Why is it that Lehman would do "...deals that nobody else would touch.."? No doubt it was the bonus money that incentivized them, but which of its executives and key employees were the swinging dicks that created this single monstrous entity that put the entire global financial system
at huge risk? We know part of the WHY but who, how, where, and when, which this article which lets take a peek under the skirts needs more, much more.

What were all those deals and how were they permitted to happen?

Thu, 09/10/2009 - 11:57 | 64989 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

hal9000 is the only factor that matters to the markets

nothing else has any impact

everything is irrelevant

and THIS is the reason this market will crash someday

Special thanks to the rescue heroes helicopter ben and turbo tax timmy

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!