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Frontrunning: September 21
- Vacations now over, Greek labor union schedules next all day strike for October 7 - set your $0.01 stub quotes accordingly
- ECB Steps Up Its Bond Buys Amid Worries (WSJ)
- ECB Sterilizes €61.5 Billion in sovereign bond purchases, purchases €323 million of bonds last week (Market News)
- Which of course leads to... Ireland Sells 1.5 Billion Euros in Debt as Borrowing Costs Rise (Bloomberg)
- And to...Greek Sovereign Default Would Be a `Tragedy,' Papandreou Says (Bloomberg)
- Former Officials Oppose US Renminbi Bill (FT)
- Putting your money to work just 2 days a month: To make a lot of money in the stock market this year, all you had to do was invest on just the first two days of every month. And get the hell out of the market every other day (NY Post)
- Obama Says China's Growth is 'Good for US' (China Daily)
- Chris Whalen: Double dip or global deflation? (Reuters)
- From former Bernanke collaborator Vince Reinhardt: Getting Lehman Profoundly Wrong, The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is widely misunderstood: We have inverted a morality tale about individual recklessness to become one about collective culpability through inaction. (The American)
- Dollar 3m LIBOR/OIS Spread Narrows To Touch 10 bps (Market News)
- China and Japan spat mars youth expo visit (FT)
- Obama Says China Hasn't Followed Through on Yuan (Bloomberg)
- Japan Says China Boat Row Shouldn't Fan `Extreme' Nationalism (Bloomberg)
- Fed Under Pressure to Avoid Creating Confusion Over Potential for Easing (Bloomberg)
- U.S. Loses No. 1 to Brazil-China-India Market in Global Poll on Investing (Bloomberg)
Economic Highlights
- Switzerland Trade Balance for August 0.57B. Previous 2.84B.
- Switzerland Exports real SA for August -1.4% m/m. Previous 2.6% m/m.
- Switzerland Imports real SA for August 9.1% m/m. Previous -3.4% m/m.
- Switzerland Money Supply M3 for August 6.6% y/y. Previous 6.5% y/y.
- UK Public Finances (PSNCR) for August 5.8B - lower than expected.Consensus 8.1B. Previous -3.7B.
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing for August 15.3B - higher than expected.Consensus 12.5B. Previous 2.0B.
Today's US Econ Calendar (Consensus/Previous):
8:30 US Housing Starts for August 550K 546K
8:30 US Housing Starts for August 0.7% m/m 1.7% m/m
8:30 US Building Permits for August 560K 565K
8:30 US Building Permits for August 0.2% m/m -3.1% m/m
14:15 US FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence -43
7:00 Canada Consumer Price Index for August 0.0% m/m 1.9% y/y 0.5% m/m 1.8% y/y
7:00 Canada CPI Core for August 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y -0.1% m/m 1.6% y/y
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The overnight low in the Dow Mini Futures was around 10640 so the high today will be near 10740, just watch it's at 10695 right now.
"Here is a back-of-an-envelope guess by David Greenlaw at Morgan Stanley on what the Fed can expect from a second blitz of bond purchases, or `Shock & Awe’ as he calls it.
If Ben Bernanke does a further $2 trillion (on top of the $1.7 trillion already in the bag) the yield on 10-year US Treasuries will drop 50 basis points to around 2.2pc.
GDP growth will be 0.3pc higher than otherwise in 2011 and 0.4pc higher in 2012.
The unemployment rate will be 0.3pc lower in 2011 and 0.5pc lower in 2012 — (in other words drop from 9.6pc to 9.1pc, ceteris paribus).
That looks like trivial returns for a collosal adventure into the unknown, with risks of dollar flight and mounting Chinese suspicions that the US intends to default on its external debts by debasement."
"I am pretty sure he said it would take $30 trillion to do the job – given the scale of wealth destruction from the US property crash and ferocity of debt deleveraging still to come.
We will find out tomorrow whether Fed hawks from such districts as Dallas, Richmond, Kansas, and Philadelphia are really willing to sign off so soon on the next helicopter drop. It seems very strange that they should do so when the official line is that there will be no economic double-dip, and that this Summer’s slowdown is just a mid-cycle correction.
Bernanke said at Jackson Hole that the Fed would hit the button “if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly”. Has that standard been met? I happen to think that the underlying conditions have been buckling for months – if you look at forward-looking indicators rather than backward-looking indicators (the internals of the ISM for example) – and that the economy is slowing to stall speed as the inventory boost wears off, housing support is snatched away, and fiscal tightening bites.
BUT THAT IS NOT THE FED’S STATED VIEW. If it were to sign off on fresh QE as cavalierly as some analysts seem to suppose, it would invite ridicule. Such action would suggest there really is a Bernanke Put, a safety net for asset prices, investors, and the rich."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007647/qe...
And get the hell out of the market every other day.
Chart: ES
Every other day? Looks like a down one today.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NTUxMzRlZ
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com
What? Another "roof top"?
Look, anyone long this market at this point is front-running the Fed. That didn't work very well last time.
Compare ES and ZB. So where is the truth?
http://www.screencast.com/t/ODE2NzQxN
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com
The "Roof Top." They often have chimneys too.
http://thepatternsite.com/roof.html
I was wondering if the Greek unions would considering moving the strike day to October 15th instead ? That would be perfect for options expiration day.
Links are all messed up on this. You can't access them from main page and if you access them from here they are scrambled. Ok it's just the greek link.
classic ---> "set your $0.01 stub quotes accordingly"
Thanks for such a great post and the review, I am totally impressed! Keep stuff like this coming!...
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