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Frontrunning: September 23

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2010 08:48 -0400

Wen Says 20% Gain in Yuan Would Cause Social Upheaval (Bloomberg)
Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan (NYT)
Is the PBoC Deregulating Chinese Bank Deposit Rates? (Seeking Alpha)
The "Deleveraging" Deception (Michael Pento)
German Union Mobilizes Over Pay to Avert "One-Leg" Recovery (Bloomberg)
Waaaaah Street: Executives, Emotion, and Outbursts of Obama Rage (NY Observer)
Retirees Duped by Derivatives With Structured Notes Sale Surge (Bloomberg)
Did the Fed Really Say Inflation Isn't High Enough? (Minyanville)
Dale Says Bank of England Must Be Ready to React to Unusually Large Risks (Bloomberg)
Berlin Pushes Turkey's EU Bid (WSJ)
As Spain Struggles, Energy Plan Proves Difficult to Agree On (NYT)
Former Fed Governor Heller Says `Too Little' Inflation Concern Misplaced (Bloomberg)
Obama Faces Challenge On Renminbi Push (FT)
Bernanke to the Rescue? (FX Solutions)
Pelosi Urges Action on China Currency as Panel Considers Measure (Bloomberg)

Economic data:

Euro-Zone PMI Composite for September 53.8 - lower than expected.Consensus 55.7. Previous 56.2.
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing for September 53.6 - lower than expected. Consensus 54.5. Previous 55.1.
Euro-Zone PMI Services for September 55.6 - lower than expected. Consensus 55.5. Previous 55.9.
Germany PMI Manufacturing for September 55.3 - lower than expected. Consensus 57.6. Previous 58.2.
Germany PMI Services for September 54.6 - lower than expected. Consensus 57.2. Previous 57.2.
France Own-Company Production Outlook for September 0.Previous -5.
France Production Outlook Indicator for September 3 - higher than expected. Consensus -1. Previous 1.
France Business Confidence Indicator for September 98 - in line with expectations. Consensus 98 Previous 98.
France PMI Manufacturing for September 55.4 - higher than expected. Consensus 55. Previous 55.1.
France PMI Services for September 58.8 - lower than expected. Consensus 60. Previous 60.4.

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Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:53 | 599501 dickbar

the japan rare earth story was dissed by the chinese govt. first thing this morning uk time...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:56 | 599508 NotApplicable

Pento hits another one out of the park. But, he did point out that the MSM has a blind spot, which frankly, is just plain rude.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:53 | 599632 ATG

Pento scores with the truth again

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:00 | 599516 Horatio Beanblower

"Max (Keiser) goes to New York to talk to Joe Weisenthal from BusinessInsider.com to talk bedbugs, gold and pensioners" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxtfcltKmko

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 12:30 | 600072 kathy.chamberli...

joe is a nerd, don't know why M A X {the great} keeps interviewing him. wish he would interview tyler, of course with a B A G over his face. god that would be the h o t t e s t moment of my life. with stacyH in between. i would just dream it was me instead.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:08 | 599529 Careless Whisper

re: Retirees Duped article. perhaps the headline should be "Wachovia Steals From Granny". isn't that what's going on?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:58 | 599586 hangemhigh

CW:

i've taken the liberty of editing your headline slightly:

"mexican drug cartel money laundering bank also steals from granny in derivative trade"

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2010/06/report-w...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:15 | 599540 aldousd

I read Michael Pento's blurb on RCM this morning, which is a really short and sweet illustration of why there actually is no such thing as a paradox of thrift, and thought 'Tyler will find this one and put it in the list.' Looks like I wasn't wrong.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:36 | 599587 gwar5

Already had a 25% drop in USD last 2 years.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:43 | 599605 Slartibartfast

"China’s exports are focused on labor-intensive manufacturing, and “the U.S. has long since stopped producing many of these products,” Wen said. “If the U.S. doesn’t import from China, it will import from somewhere else.”"

Or maybe, just maybe, start making this stuff itself again?

Naaaaaaaaaah...

Welcome to the inevitable...protectionism is right around the corner. Governments that pandered endlessly to big multi-national businesses are gonna have to put some fences up or face a social backlash.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:54 | 599636 kaiserhoff

Of course, a rising yuan will cause social unrest in China, as will breathing oxygen, a blue sky, and the sun rising in the east. Lots of luck running a concentration camp in the internet age.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:28 | 599731 snowball777

Retirees eat suspicious sausage, get the runs. I have zero sympathy for someone who believes their coffee can money can be put into a 'safe' bond paying 9%.

People this stupid deserve to be parted from their money so that it can be put to better use.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 12:04 | 600009 Commander Cody

As you indicated, there is no corrective action for 'stupid'; however, there is a corrective action for fraud.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:43 | 599772 FranSix

Interesting action in the CYB. Normally a rise in the CYB is short-lived and precedes a discount rate decline. We'll see if that holds true this time around:

We have an imminent moving average crossover, should the Yuan appreciate further:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p15488071547&a=20286...

Currency jawboning is have a major effect on this market. (this is no different than previous times, except with the vehemence on display.)

Something getting missed here are negative yields on TIPS:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-22/tips-five-year-yields-turn-nega...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:15 | 599876 FranSix

Retirees were ripped off by unscrupulous coin dealers, it turns out they were running a boiler room:

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/goldline-hired-boiler-room-salesmen-sued-s...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 14:12 | 600430 -273

Dr. Robert Hirsch has a unique place in the ‘peak oil’ issue. Back in 2005, he was the main author of the first pessimistic report ever published by a public administration (presentation on Wikipedia).

Not any public administration : the Department of Energy of President George Bush.

[oil man] In the book that you are about to publish, your case is that ‘peak oil’ may happen very soon indeed. According to you, when might we be getting into trouble ? In ten years, in less than ten years ?

Let me begin with this : the background is the production. World oil production had been progressing and then it’s been flat, fluctuating, since the middle of 2004 : it’s been on a ‘plateau’. The economic recession led to a decline in demand, but not much.

The world demand is going up again. It’s back to where it was before the beginning of the crisis in 2008.

Correct. And the oil production fluctuates in a band of 4 or 5 %. It’s not very big. I think that the world oil production cannot go higher than that.

What is your hypothesis ?

We will stay in this band, and within 2 to 5 years, world oil production will go into decline.

So you have in mind the same terrible scenario which has recently been put forward by the Pentagon, the Lloyd’s and Chatham House, and by the German army.

Roughly, yes.

The Department of Energy too mentions a fluctuating, or “undulating” plateau of the oil production. Are you talking about the same thing ?

The difference is that they say we will get to that plateau somewhere in the future. But we are already there ! And if you look at the data, there’s no question we’re there.

What should we expect, before the world is able to catch up with the ‘peak oil’ issue ?

From a world standpoint, Growth Domestic Product will decline every year for over a decade, and could easily be down 20 or 30 % over this period of time. That’s what I mean when I say « catastrophic ».