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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update - 12.17.09

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Technician's Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update - 12.17.09

 

In this 12.17.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present detailed technical profiles of the US Dollar Index, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the S&P 500 Cash ...

 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

 

US Dollar Index

 

DXY 55 Minute

DXY Daily

DXY Daily2

 

GC: Gold Futures

 

GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

 

SI: Silver Futures

 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index

 

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

INX: S&P 500 Cash Index

 

INX 55 Minute

INX Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing ...

 

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 

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Fri, 12/18/2009 - 01:31 | 168501 babbs
babbs's picture

Genii:  Thanks for the update on gold.  Reviewing the GC/DXY chart from your post on 12/11 and the dailies above, (note that reversals occurred on the same day), do you think it likely that the $/gold inverse pattern will continue?  Guess Missing_Link will be missing as well as humorless Spitzer - oh well - let those who have eyes . . .

Fri, 12/18/2009 - 16:36 | 169175 ATG
ATG's picture

Keep up the good work...

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:56 | 168427 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

 

USD daily chart uptrend continues but is very overbought now so it needs a good retracement.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

 

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:46 | 168421 illyia
illyia's picture

Nice work.

Thanks.

i.

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:39 | 168414 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Awesome charts. I'm bullish on gold but the short-term price movement speaks for itself. It needs to find a support level and stabilize.

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:09 | 168373 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Fibo, enjoying the daily updates.  Nice compliment to Robo's work.  Do you have an EW count?  This area "feels" extremely bearish, but a few EW guys are saying we're in a triple zig zag structure to finish off intermediate C of P2.  I've read targets upwards of 1160.A minority opinion to be sure, but thought provoking nonetheless.  Any thoughts on that?

Fri, 12/18/2009 - 01:30 | 168500 Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

thx for the kind words, Cursive

we do try to share / teach practical nuance within advanced technical analysis.

the primary Elliott Wave count remains that espoused by EWI, which is that Primary wave 2 (circle) is tracing out its final upward subdivisions within a triple zigzag structural composition ~ within the parlance of E dub, such is termed "Intermediate wave (Z) of Primary wave 2 (circle) of cycle wave c."

the long n short of the leading alternate EW count would require a large breakaway gap to the downside to develop either manana or Monday morn. Yet, with RIMMbag n larry (we never, ever miss) ellison's ORCL each reporting to the good ... and uncle buck kissing not only a previous wave (iv) but also its 23.6 % upward retracement from the 3/4/09 peak of 89.62 to the 11/26/09 trough of 74.17 ... a pause to refresh, reset short-term measures of momentum / ATR (average true range), plot a blatant FNL (failed new low) and further develop short / intermediate-term positive divergences is not only welcome but also much needed in order to effectively build a 'proper' base from which the Greenback can get jiggy with it in its next upwardly impulsive subdivisions, which, imho, will be simply hellacious. 

That said; unless you are extremely proficient in not only EWP but also in the complexly woven practical nuances of EWT (theory, a personal specialty), Elliott will kill you as a trader during peak hours (cash).  Elliott is unparalleled in terms of providing a conceptual framework from which a technician may build a comprehensive market outlook from the ground up; especially within periods of extreme import / underlying character change within price action itself (ie. now).

For instance, while our own indicators / oscillators showed slight neg divergences yesterday morning (post-Globex open) just about the only legitimate reason that any technician could have remained long the DX / $USD would have been by observing both a confluence of short-term 1/2 min candlestick patterns and 'trusting' the very gappy, impulsive nature of uncle buck ~ which suggested that it was subdividing higher within an extended wave three of some variety; in this case it was of minuette degree (think 21 or 34-minute interval periods of time).

If interested in E dub, great; hat's off for 'getting it' n putting in the work to further hone those skills ... just please do be mindful of being tempted to count squigglies on any given instrument / interval period during peak hours. 

Bottom line: EW is simply unparalleled in terms of off-peak analysis but can be extremely detrimental to traders who place a secondarily confirming indicant above technically quantified trading signals, which account for the actual trading aspects of Identification, Isolation, Timing, Execution & Management.

hope that helps, Cursive.

have fun manana at the casino folks.  and remember: never play w/o protection !!

Fri, 12/18/2009 - 09:04 | 168597 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

1000+

Great charts, and the decency to answer questions with very detailed responses. Bravo. Man, I hope folks appreciate such generous infromation we get here for free, daily. Thanks mucho, Chop, keep 'em coming wonderful way to enjoy the morning coffee.

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:02 | 168362 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You're the dink if you think the Indian CB is an indicator or price direction.

Gold contracts were at a record high in speculative longs. The $150 drop is an indication of what happens when 'over eager' speculators pile in and skew prices.

Fri, 12/18/2009 - 00:31 | 168459 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

In case you don't know this, the Indian CB is a big operator and not just your average Peter Schiff fan.

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:00 | 168359 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is pretty weak for sure....the website is terrible

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 22:49 | 168351 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

This guy is fucking dink.  "Over eager gold bugs" Now that's technical analysis.

Who is he talking about anyway ? The CB of India ?

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:29 | 168398 Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

as for the gold bugs we're referring to, why doncha check out all the other armchair geniuses watching cnbc who thought themselves cute n snarky when we point blank called THE top in gold.  puhlease, client 9, stick to hugh grant circle, where you know of what you speak.  have no patience for that.

 

Gold CHARTS ... bitches

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/search/node/fibozachi

http://www.zerohedge.com/search/node/chopshop

 

have fun and lemme know if you have either an actual question or at the very least an actual joke to make. n if ya come back, at least try; that slop above is just really sad n lazy.

Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:58 | 168429 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Wow, Chopshop.  There's really no need for that over-the-top level of sarcasm and arrogance.  You seem to want to be taken seriously, and yet you offer an unprofessional and childish response like this one.

I get the sense from reading this that I know all I need to know about you folks now and I feel there is no need to read any more of your articles.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!