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Full Lehman 2010 High Yield Conference Presentation Deck
If you were one of the unlucky few caught exposing Barclays' shenanigans over the past year while acquiring Lehman at subfiresale prices (and being sued for that now), you probably were not invited to the annual Lehman Brothers (yes, that's how it will always be know, and always with Brad Rogoff leading the charge) HY conference, this year held at the Phoenician in Scottsdale, AZ. On the other hand, even if you were invited, but like quite a few people, spent all your time in Jenna Jameson's Babe's Cabaret, and need to send your boss a summary of all you"learned" you must be about as pleased as Tim Geithner at a Tax Cheats Anonymous meeting. Fear not - here is the full presentation deck, chock full of cool stuff stuff, pretty graphs and bullish, bullisher, bullishest ideas. So buy all the worst junk before the market crashes again and Lehman still has gobs of crap paper on their books. Cause this time the Repo 105 reacharound just ain't gonna cut it.
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I was laughing too hard to check who was asked all these questions. I suspect the Palm Readers Society of America checked off the boxes.
TFF.....the abnormal is officially normal.
This presentation is just sad. 200 pages of disclaimers and excuses, and 20 pages of "ideas." The title should be "fantasies not yet proven to be invalidated." On page 210 is my favorite headline: "Credit markets continue to heal, as evidenced by lower YTW of the HY market." This sounds more like a legal defense than an investment strategy.
The whole investment market has become Hilbert's program writ large.
Who wants to listen to that BS anyway, they just make a lot of noise and generate some shity income for some hotel in Arizona. Their time is gone, I think you can skip all coming conferences also, all BS for high paid idiots to think they take part in something very important, and what they talk about? The only thing they know for sure (as we do) is that FED is printing money and the rest is just interpretation, inflation, deflation, stagflation, pissflation, errection, haze, smoke and fear that somebody finally sees how useless they are. And who spends money on them? If you add up all the wages for all those smart asses, probably you would pay for healthcare and the only problem you would have only one worry how to make it better. The whole world produces goods and America just has finacial experts who will help you part with your money and stuff it in their pockets.
+1
Gotta love it. Phoenician was property first brought to national attention during the S&L crisis of pre-historic times. Before most of ZH readers could in fact, do so. (Searchthe Keating Seven) Ah, mortgage loans recycled. Again. And again....
Weigh, bail, ship out, securitize, rinse, relabel, repeat.
For generations. For Christ's sake.
Thanks for a purge to the memory. Yeah, Charlie was way ahead of his time. Were he kickin' it today, he would have gotten off scott free for all his crimes. He invented the " shop for an audit and rating " schemes.
looks similar to that A.B.S. confererence....in Vegas years ago
Do any junk guys/gals know if:
the long term default rate of HY debt roughly equals their long term spread to Treasuries? Probably the long term recovery rate of the defaulted debt should be factored in there too somehow.
Is this/would this be a meaningful statistic?
I would say long term annual default rates are about 4% per year and average recoveries are about 35% of par. So the long-term average spread of around 550 bps then seems attactive. But periods of big high yield total returns tend to be concentrated in just 1-2 years. And the current rally seems more money flow driven than economic driven. Hope that helps.
About 5% on defaults and spread is what I thought. But the total return year to year is really where the volitility is. Thanks.
It would be helpful if they printed this stuff on soft paper.
Read the disclaimers and throw the rest out.
Had to laugh at their housing report, a big bounce in housing prices that is projected in a number of slides, yet a few slides later there are slides titled 'Backlog Values Still Under Pressure Bodes Poorly For Future Revenue and Cash Flow" and "Closings Still Weak Y/Y but Severity of Declines has Moderated"
It is crazy, after all that has happened, any recovery in housing is not going to be immediate and steep.
Anyone who fell asleep early in the presentation is in big trouble.
Current EUROYEN / EURO strength and USD weakness continues.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
stunning work. give these guys another bonus.
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