• Steve H. Hanke
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Full Text Of Irish Government/Eurogroup Statements On Ireland Bailout

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Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:01 | 744968 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Don't look now but the EFS&M is on the case. 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:41 | 745186 unununium
unununium's picture

$137B.  Is will cost the same to bail out the Republic of Ireland as it did to keep JPMorgan alive.

A bankrupcy judge handed JPM $138B from the Lehman Bros. estate Saturday September 20, 2008 , to cover money advanced to settle trades keep financial markets stable.

Absent evidence to the contrary, we must assume JPM held puts and CDS on Lehman from Lehman.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6387.html

 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:57 | 745213 gillimus
gillimus's picture

JPM and GS hedged their mortgage CDOs with CDS from AIG.  The taxpayer bailout to AIG included cash to JPM and especially GS.  Cash from your (and especially your grandchildren's) pockets into the TBTFs.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:11 | 744978 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

EUR/USD now trading up at 1.37 on NetDania...

Not showing up yet on Finviz...

 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:14 | 744983 Orly
Orly's picture

Nice gap.  Let's fill it!

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:19 | 744987 hellboy
hellboy's picture

how would you do that?

also nicer gap would be gold, Im guessing it will pull up a few $$$, got a pretty good correlation with the eurusd.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:37 | 745021 Orly
Orly's picture

Most gaps get filled...eventually.  :D

On gapping candles above M15, the fill rate is about 85%, maybe more.  The question is timing.  We'll see once the tick gets moving but it wouldn't surprise me if the 70-pip up-move is closed fairly quickly (within two hours...).

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:06 | 745064 hellboy
hellboy's picture

"closing 70pip move", do you mean the eurusd coming back down or gold closing its gap with eurusd?

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:49 | 745201 Orly
Orly's picture

Closing the hole left in the chart on the gap.  Charts don't like gaps.  Sometimes, it takes a while for that to happen.  Sometimes, it happens fairly quickly.  But most always, gaps get filled, meaning that the EURUSD should trade to the level it opened...some time.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:44 | 745267 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

To the person posting under Orly's account and the ZH community:

Last weekend, it was obvious that you had hacked into Orly's account.  You were using her/his screen name and avatar, then posting predictions that were exactly wrong - such as the Bank of Japan announcing a surprise 4X intervention at 01:30 am EST Wednesday morning.  A massive argument ensued regarding the sanctity of avatars and online identities.  I couldn't agree more with the real Orly. 

Now, this weekend, you're doing the same thing - posting all sorts of exactly wrong predictions under a stolen identity.  Earlier today, you/Orly impostor said to short the Euro on the Irish bailout news and even gave a specific support level of 128.88.  Then, you said that the eur/usd gap would be filled within 2 hours - another impossibly specific prediction, which has obviously not happened.  

Now, the latest:  Gaps almost always get filled - duh!  Everyone knows that.  What sort of statement is that?

The real Orly provides insightful and well-written commentary on the 4X markets, and his/her posts are some of the best around. For those of you that follow her/him, you should be mindful that someone has hacked her account and make some rather ridiculous predictions that are proven wrong in a matter of hours.  It was obvious last weekend, and it's obvious again today.  

Online identities are not a joke!  Whoever is trying to smear Orly's online persona should be held accountable by the fullest extent of the law!

 

 

 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 22:06 | 745285 Orly
Orly's picture

Hi.  No.  This is me.  Relax.  I was asked a question about gaps in regards to the gap between the currency and gold or the gap on open.  I said the gap on the open.

I am trying to provide insightful commentary, really I am.  But if you listen closely, I am saying that this thing is pretty up in the air right now.  My strong hunch is that the EUR will be pushed down, possibly big-time,  but the USDJPY pair is still acting strange.

The predictions I am making are not actually ridiculous.  I am looking on the weekly charts, mostly, and the large moves over the past year are going to be re-traced somewhat- and those moves were huge.  Please bear with me.

_______

I appreciate your sticking up for me and I truly appreciate your feeling that my posts are helpful but it is me, I promise.  :D

It seems they can only steal the picture and not the name.  So, if it is my picture and my name, it is most definitely me.

As to the other guys stealing avatars, I haven't heard them much around.  I did see one guy with no avatar at all, so perhpas that privilege has been stripped from their account.

I am truly sorry for any confusion I may have caused by that escapade, but I assure you that I am the one making these statements tonight.

Orly

P/S/ In regards to the Bank of Japan thing, I said that if the USD continued to show strength, the BoJ may intervene to push the USD higher and then defend that level.  I said don't be surprised because they probably have a lot of dry powder and may use it.

I have no inside knowlege of such things, obviously.  Besides, it was on Bruce's post, where we just kind of throw things out there and see what sticks.

Once again, sorry about that.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 22:54 | 745374 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Oh.  

Sorry about that.

I'm just really sensitive these days -  all sorts of weird things have been happening to me lately:

First, I lost my job doing night security work at the local grocery store.  With Obama and Soros deliberately trying to crash this economy, guarding all the food made me somewhat of an emperor in my town.  You wanna steal some green beans for your bunker?  Yeah right - not when I'm the fucking sheriff!

Then the dominos really began to fall.  

My parents threatened to kick me out of the house because I wasn't doing my designated chores.  Well fuck me!  I just lost my job, and you want me to worry about cat hair on dad's chair!!  WTF, mom!!  If I was banned from the local PetsMart in May, how the fuck am I gonna get one of those cat-hair-roller-sticky things?

Next, as one of the pivotal members of the ZH community, I'm fairly certain the government is watching all my moves on this site. That would explain why I inexplicably lost my job, and why I'm getting suspicious packages in the mail from pornography companies. If I could tell you everything, I would.  Let me put it this way...the Jason Bourne character isn't fictional. That's all I can say, and it's already too much.  

And today I get another flying hammer drop to my balls...the YMCA cancelled its yearly Ping Pong tournament due to budget concerns.  WTF!!  I've been training since fucking February and just spent $39 on an Aircast Pneumatic Elbow Brace, which basically made me bionic. If I won $100 in the tournament and my costs were only $39, anyone with any sort of arithmetic skills will know that I would have pocketed a cool $51.

There's more, but my mother is fucking yelling at me.  Anyway, just a little apology for mistaking you for the fake Orly.  I will short the Euro as soon as I wash the dishes.  

 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 23:10 | 745419 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

i just pissed myself.  quality.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 23:31 | 745458 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Wayne's World

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 23:43 | 745479 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

Simply brilliant my friend. A sore stomach from laughing so hard.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:38 | 745024 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Low volume early tiny move. Not finding that at all convincing. Can't see big moves into Euro this week while US investors are thinking about turkeys and stuffing...

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:14 | 745037 Orly
Orly's picture

US opens in fifteen minutes...

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:14 | 745074 Orly
Orly's picture

Buy into yen strength, sell into Euro weakness...

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:23 | 745085 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Strong nerves. Gotta give credit where it is due. 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:26 | 745087 Orly
Orly's picture

I just follow the charts.  That is what they say.

Of course, I reserve the right to bail at the first sign of an Imperial cruiser.

:D

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:51 | 745271 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

YEAH RIGHT!

Orly impostor!

Who the hell would follow 4X charts in an entirely manipulated market where central banks are unexpectedly (and randomly) gunning currencies on a weekly basis? How can you read a chart in the middle of a world-wide currency war?

Orly impostor! 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 22:13 | 745294 Orly
Orly's picture

Okay...

Well, it is my belief that most everything gets priced into a chart and the chart is only a manifest picture of how the currency pair is going to act.  The H4 and the Daily charts are most accurate for projections.  Remember, this is not necessarily day-trading.  Some of these trades take a long time.

Have a look at the Weekly chart of the EURUSD and you can see that the pair was extremely overbought and that it has only begun to work off that move.  Even a fifty percent retracement would be huge.  That is what I am talking about.

Now, I'm not sure if you're not yanking my chain.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 23:25 | 745450 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

he is def yanking your chain.  you are nice enough to humor him though...

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 23:28 | 745454 Orly
Orly's picture

Thanks.  I think.

:D

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:29 | 745093 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

To the FX experts out there. I can understand why the EUR and GBP would gap up on the news but why the hell are the AUD and JPY gapping up ?  and the only thing getting trashed is the USD...

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:37 | 745110 Orly
Orly's picture

EURJPY gapped up, indicating yen weakness, while the EURAUD and the USDJPY basically opened flat.  The AUDUSD also gapped higher on perceived risk aversion following the news.  It was the same as with the EURUSD gapping up on supposed good news with a resolution to the crisis.

The fundamentals are now coming in and traders are realising that this is not really such wonderful news after all.

Also, the central banks and futures traders (big money...) like to gun the engine a little bit so that they can blow out stops on the open.  Now they can get short with nearly guaranteed profits.

Also, I have noticed that the trading correlation between the AUDUSD pair and the EURUSD pair has been very high lately.  I would expect the AUDUSD to trade lower along with the EURUSD.  The moves could be giant.  Be careful.

:D

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:48 | 745130 hellboy
hellboy's picture

nice explanation Orly, cheers.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:54 | 745140 Orly
Orly's picture

We'll see if it works.  The upside potential in EURUSD and AUDUSD is somewhat limited, barring some really, really crazy news, while the downside potential could be relatively huge.

Stay nimble!

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:43 | 745188 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

Thanks for the reply.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:52 | 745205 Orly
Orly's picture

Sure.

Not an expert, by the way.  Just trying to find my way in this insane market.

I am learning more every day.

:D

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:15 | 745164 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

Banksters are still getting their way = risk on for another day? They kicked the can down the road for two days til Portugal drops the euro so it's safe  for a day (til it isn't). Dunno, purely my speculation :)

 

Honestly I can't see how this is so great for the Euro in the long run. It could have been dragged around a bit longer to occupy the bond swarm that is about to descend on Portugal. I have a feeling we will see more Greece type mayhem if that population gets stirred.. 

Ireland's folk seemed to be angry, but nothing became of it. Have the sheep of the world's governments been so well trained now to roll over that we will never see true revolution again? Which country will be the one to say... "OK, Fuck this shit, it's on."

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:22 | 745244 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Don't worry it will come, I feel it just as I did in 1980 in Poland, probably you remember Solidarity and how it finished Soviet block, it will come. You just need one or two more straws to break camels back and after that it's just an avalange, everywhere. I'm old now so I'm just observer, I did my part, we will see how the YOUNG of this world will deal with their problems now. They have limited choices but still being slave is the worst.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 20:59 | 745216 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

    "and the only thing getting trashed is the USD"

   Right, because that is the only thing that rallies US stocks. We must have a Turkey rally, Santa rally, Bailout rally, JR. did not wet the bed last night Rally... Need a rally? Sell dollars.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:26 | 745248 Orly
Orly's picture

USD is not bowing down to the JPY yet, surprisingly.  It is acting much the same as it did last week: weird.

That's going to be the key trade.  The USDJPY is supposed to fall from these levels.  If it breaks and holds 83.81 with a close above that on the H4 chart, then the USD will rocket against the yen.

Then, we will really, really be in the Twilight Zone.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 22:39 | 745333 hellboy
hellboy's picture

Hey, what does H4 mean, please explain :) Thanks

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 22:46 | 745347 Orly
Orly's picture

The four-hour chart.  M15 would be the fifteen minute chart.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:14 | 744982 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

What happens when these loans run out,the interest is still being paid,the banks have no capital and the economy hasn,t improved.Where does this circle of money from fresh air end and reality hit ?

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:26 | 744997 Hansel
Hansel's picture

More money can always be printed.  The production cost of money in the new digital economy is about $0.0000000000000000000001 per $1000 new dollars, so cost will never be an inhibiting factor.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:58 | 744986 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

 

From the Irish Government (simultaneous translation)

The Government today agreed to request financial support from the European Union and the Euro Area Members States [We shall serve the King and Kaiser but not Ireland]. The IMF will also be requested to assist in the provision of support [We shall sell Ireland as a slave to the international bankers].

A central element of the programme will also be to support further deep restructuring and the restoration of the long-term viability and financial health of the Irish banking system [A central element of the programme will also be support from the Pope allowing prostitutes to use condoms to avoid HIV. We shall ask the EU and IMF to use condoms in the repeated rapes and deep anal penetration we are about to suffer]. 

See the face of the groveling pig prostitute at:

http://www.thejournal.ie/cowen-addresses-irish-people-on-bailout-but-off...

 

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:24 | 745246 Kayman
Kayman's picture

tom

It seems silly to use condoms after you have AIDS....

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:44 | 745262 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Yup, the disease is pandemic. May as well go down with an orgy. Ladies and gents, there are no rules. Party like it's 1971. Buy gold in big chunks and silver in small denominations. I'd like to thank the host.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:25 | 744994 JJJones
JJJones's picture

The money that they supposedly "borrowed" was created from nothing so why should they have to pay it back?  They should tell the banksters to stuff it and the Sun will come up tomorrow in Ireland...  A lot of pols will be out of jobs but WGAS? The country will be much better off as opposed to becoming further enslaved to debt.

 We could paraphrase this video with the title "Irish Idiot".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygtqaH-hnFs

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:35 | 745017 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

More money printing = higher precious metals prices.  To the mooooon!!!!

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:35 | 745018 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

More money printing = higher precious metals prices.  To the mooooon!!!!

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:46 | 745269 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I'll third that motion.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:38 | 745023 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

....final exam day, WHO is DOING, who is pretty-rhetortically saying, pleading the point...drill down=> take a snapshot of history in the making....NOW and HERE is the half way noturning-back, point, get the hell out of the way; its 1940 William Shirer "Berlin Diary" [zerohedge, proxy narrative] we all know 'too much' hence 'actionable victim listed'...

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:44 | 745034 godzila
godzila's picture

Just wondering - any word on the Irish participation to the Greek bailout ?! :)

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 18:45 | 745036 mauistroker
mauistroker's picture

Initial figures in the Guardian and my napkin figurin' suggests this is equivalent to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in Ireland.....all so the banks can have assurance, visibility and avoid writing off what would otherwise be bad debt. This is a fucking disgrace. What has happened to capitalism and risk/reward and capital allocation (a rhetorical question)?Bankers bad investments are simply transferred to the public/super sovereigns and they remain whole. It makes me simultaneously rage with anger and serene at the knowldege that it's another sign of some kind of 'end time' or phase change or outright collapse.

Sun, 11/21/2010 - 19:31 | 745096 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Amen.  The only country that faced this situation and did the right thing was Sweden back in the early to mid 90's.  It's pretty amazing that the swedes end up being the only ones going with the most free market approach to this. 

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