Full Transcript Of The BLS' First Post-NFP Public Q&A

The first ever BLS web chat is over and the results are below. To be sure, none of Zero Hedge's more probing (or any) questions were honored but that's ok: we don't claim to be well-connected administration/banking system insiders, on the fast track to hard cover book releases (and maybe sales) any time soon. The overall theme is that for the most part the people who cared enough to participate in this chat a) didn't believe much of what is coming out of the BLS, and b) ridiculed assumption that things are getting even remotely better. Although not even an hour had passed from the release that Robert Gibbs (@PressSec) twitted the following: "Looking at jobs numbers...in first 3 months of '09 averaged 753,000 jobs lost - first 3 months of this year, average of 54,000 jobs created." And then they wonder why the population, which is not as dumb as the admin wants to believe, does not believe a single governmental release. 

Emily Liddel:  Hello, and welcome to BLS’ first web chat.  Today we will be discussing the employment report, which was released at 8:30 this morning.  We won’t be able to answer all the questions, but we will do our best to answer as many questions as we can in the hour.  Today we have a panel of experts from both the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) programs ready to discuss today’s employment report. Our panelists for today are: Tom Nardone (CPS), Steve Haugen (CPS), Angie Clinton (CES), Laura Kelter (CES), Chris Manning (CES), and Michele Walker (CES).  I’m Emily Liddel, and I will be today’s producer. Without further ado, let’s get to your questions!

Friday April 2, 2010 9:30 Emily Liddel

9:30

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Submitted via e-mail by Madeline: Is there an estimate for how many census workers will be hired for the current census and when those hires will occur? Are these employees full, or part-time? How does the BLS treat these employees? Are they counted as "regular" employees? Madeline, thanks for your questions. Current information on the census intermittent worker impact on CES estimates can be found on www.bls.gov/ces/cescensusworkers.pdf. To be considered employed in the CES survey, workers need to receive pay for any time during their pay period including the 12th of the month. Workers getting paid for just one hour would be considered employed. The CES survey cannot distinguish between full- and part-time workers. For future hiring expectations for census intermittent workers, you should consult the Bureau of the Census or visit www.census.gov Friday April 2, 2010 9:30 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

9:31

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Submitted via email from Marisa. Any way to know which industries temp workers are being deployed to since the Alternative Work supplement to the CPS has been discontinued? Currently, BLS does not have a survey indicating the industries that are using workers employed by temporary help service firms. Friday April 2, 2010 9:31 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:32

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Submitted via email from Marisa. Of the people that are going from unemployed to out of the labor force each month (looking at the labor force flows data), is there any data on what these people are doing? Are they retiring early? Going to school? Something else? The BLS data on labor force flows does not provide information on what people who stopped looking for work are doing. The questions in the household survey are design to track labor market activity (employment and job search) but not other activities. Friday April 2, 2010 9:32 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:32

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Submitted via email from Rosemary: How many jobs have left the United States and migrated to other other parts of the world in 2008 or 2009? (In essence how many positions have we lost to globalization?) Thanks for your question Rosemary. The Current Employment Statistics survey, as published in The Employment Situation news release, covers monthly data for total nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings for the Nation by industry. The Current Employment Statistics survey does not provide data on jobs losses or gains that result from international migration of production activity; however, the Division of Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) maintains data on extended mass layoffs that are due to overseas relocation. MLS keeps data on the number of layoff events, the number of separations, and the number of initial claimants. You can find this data in the MLS’s databases, located here: http://www.bls.gov/mls/#data. You can also learn more about MLS’s research into the topic by reading this article from the Monthly Labor Review on outsourcing and off-shoring work: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/08/art1full.pdf Friday April 2, 2010 9:32 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

9:32	Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Submitted via email from Clifford: What is the change from February to March in the U6 rate? In March, the U-6 rate was 16.9 percent, little changed from 16.8 percent in February. Friday April 2, 2010 9:32 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

9:32

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Submitted via email from Dana. Why have people on extended unemployment benefits dropped by over 50% since the beginning of the year while those on EUC are up? BLS does not produce the data on unemployment benefits. The Employment and Training Administration is the source of that data. Information is available on the Department of Labor website at http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp. Friday April 2, 2010 9:32 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:32

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Question submitted via e-mail: Why was the weather effect in February not larger given the severity of the snow storms and past similar storms, i.e. Jan. 1996? Marisa, It is not possible to determine specifically how weather impacted employment estimates from data reported through the CES survey. The dynamics of the economy, as well as differences in weather systems, vary. Friday April 2, 2010 9:32 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

9:32

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Submitted via email from Gregory: What is the outlook for employment in the manufacturing industry in Indiana? Thanks for your question Gregory. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey publishes monthly data for total employment, hours and earnings for the Nation, States and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) by industry, including manufacturing.  In February 2010, manufacturing employment in Indiana was 432,500 and has been near this level since May 2009. Over 12 months, manufacturing employment in the State has declined by 31,400, compared with 78,000 jobs lost during the previous 12-month period. Regional and State employment for March 2010 will be released on April 16, 2010, at 10:00 AM. The CES program does not generate projections or forecasts for the labor market; however, the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections develops information about the labor market for the Nation as a whole, 10 years into the future. Their Web site can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/emp/home.htm; an analyst in that program can be reached by phone on [phone]. Friday April 2, 2010 9:32 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

9:33

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Submitted via email by Orlando. Could you please let me know when it’s that the January and February 2010 Basic Monthly CPS files will be posted at: http://www.bls.census.gov/cps_ftp.html If the files are in need of adjustment, what is the source of the employment situation numbers? I am sure they are not coming from the moon! If there is something wrong with the data file then the employment numbers are not reliable. Thank you for your time. The household survey data in the Employment Situation report come from nonpublic use microdata files. Thus, the estimates in the reports are not affected by the problem delaying the release of the public use files. The Census Bureau is working on the problem and will release the January and February files as soon as possible. Friday April 2, 2010 9:33 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:34

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Submitted via email from Bill: Hi. The headline payroll number is seasonally adjusted, and the hiring for the 2010 Census is NSA. How would you suggest adjusting for the 2010 Census hiring to determine the underlying trend (not counting the snow storms!)? Thanks for your question Bill. There is an adjustment made for the 2010 Census. Before seasonally adjusting the estimates, BLS makes a special modification so that the Census workers do not influence the calculation of the seasonal factors.  Specifically, BLS subtracts the Census workers from the not-seasonally adjusted estimates before running seasonal adjustment using X-12.  After the estimates have been seasonally adjusted, BLS adds the Census workers to the seasonally adjusted totals. Therefore, to determine the underlying trend of the total nonfarm (TNF) employment estimates (minus the Census workers), simply subtract the Census employment from the seasonally adjusted TNF estimate. Between February and March, employment of temporary decennial census workers rose by 48,000. BLS has produced a series of tables and charts to explain the impact of the 2010 Census on employment, which can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/ces/cescensusworkers.pdf. Friday April 2, 2010 9:34 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

9:36

Chris Manning:  Submitted via e-mail by Madeline: I don't fully understand the birth/death adjustment. How is it computed? Is it ever adjusted as the employment data is adjusted during the benchmarking process? Hi Madeline, this is a great question, but it will take me a little longer to answer than the time allows. I will respond via e-mail later this afternoon. Friday April 2, 2010 9:36 Chris Manning

9:38

[Comment From Glenn MillsGlenn Mills: ]  From December to March, BLS estimates payroll job growth of 162,000 and resident employment growth of 1.1 million. The three primary differences of farm and self-employment and changes in multiple job holding could not possibly explain a difference of one million. How do you reconcile this? Which should I believe? Friday April 2, 2010 9:38 Glenn Mills

9:38	Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Glenn: An analysis of differences in the two estimates of employment is provided on the BLS website each month at: http://stats.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf Friday April 2, 2010 9:38 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:38	[Comment From Jeffrey PalermoJeffrey Palermo: ]  If you don't count part-time workers, who really need full time jobs, what is the unemployment rate? Friday April 2, 2010 9:38 Jeffrey Palermo

9:38

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Jeffrey, To be classified as unemployed, a person must be without work, available for work, and actively seeking employment. Persons employed part time are working, and thus not included in the official unemployment statistics. Our alternative measure of labor underutilization U-6 does include persons at work part time for economic reasons--persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment. Friday April 2, 2010 9:38 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

9:38

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Submitted via email from Jacqui: What states are enjoying a growth in employment? How does Fort Wayne, Indiana unemployment compares to Gary, Indiana and Detroit, Michigan Thanks for your question Jacqui. Details on statewide job growth can be found in the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment news release issued most recently on March 26, 2010. In February, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 27 states and the District of Columbia and increased in 23 states. The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in Florida (+26,300), followed by New York (+5,800), Alabama (+5,600), Wisconsin (+5,200), Nevada (+5,100), and South Carolina (+5,000). Nevada experienced the largest over-the-month percentage increase in employment (+0.5 percent), followed by Florida and New Hampshire (+0.4 percent each) and Alabama, South Carolina, and Vermont (+0.3 percent each). Over the year, nonfarm employment decreased in 49 states and increased in 1 state and the District of Columbia. Unemployment rates for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and cities are issued in a separate release, several weeks after the Regional and State news release, cited above. Currently, data is available for January 2010. The unemployment rate for Fort Wayne (city), Indiana is 11.2 % compared to 12.0 % in Gary (city), Indiana and 25.3% in Detroit (city), Michigan. Friday April 2, 2010 9:38 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

9:40	[Comment From Terry SheehanTerry Sheehan: ]  Does the BLS have an estimate of the extent to which disruptive weather in the mid-Atlantic affected payrolls in February and March. Friday April 2, 2010 9:40 Terry Sheehan

9:40

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear Terry, Thanks for your question.  Severe winter weather in parts of the country during February may have affected payroll employment and hours; however, it is not possible to quantify precisely the net impact of the winter storms on CES employment measures .   In the establishment survey, workers who do not receive any pay for the entire pay period are not counted as employed. Workers are counted as employed in the establishment survey if they are paid for a single hour during the reference pay period, whether they worked or not.  We do not know how many workers may have been added to payrolls for snow removal, cleanup, and repairs due to the storms.  Nor do we know how new hiring or separations were affected by the weather.   Friday April 2, 2010 9:40 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

9:40	[Comment From MarkMark: ]  What was the response rate to the CES survey in March? How does the response rate affect the quality of the payroll numbers? Friday April 2, 2010 9:40 Mark

9:41

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  The response rate for March was 72.0 percent . You can obtain a history of response rates by release on http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesregrec.htm. There is not a strong correlation between response rates and how the data revise. Revisions are also available on http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm Friday April 2, 2010 9:41 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

9:42	[Comment From DustinDustin: ]  I would also like to have access to the birth death rate info please Friday April 2, 2010 9:42 Dustin

9:42	Chris Manning:  Hi Dustin, thanks for your question. You can access information on the CES net birth/death model at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm. Friday April 2, 2010 9:42 Chris Manning

9:44	[Comment From richardrichard: ]  What was the underemployment rate in January of 2007 and in January of 2010? Friday April 2, 2010 9:44 richard

9:44

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Richard, BLS does not have a definition for underemployment. Our broadest measure of labor underutilization (U-6), which includes the unemployed, those marginally attached to the labor force, and persons working part time for economic reasons, was 8.3 percent in January 2007 and 16.5 percent in January 2010. Friday April 2, 2010 9:44 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

9:44	[Comment From Terry bondsTerry bonds: ]  How many birth death jobs were there this month why is this report released on good friday Friday April 2, 2010 9:44 Terry bonds

9:44

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Hi Terry, Thanks for your question. The CES birth/death figure for March 2010 is 81,000.  Please see http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm for more information. The BLS news release schedule for major economic indicators, including the Employment Situation, is announced prior to the beginning of the calendar year, allowing advance notice to all users, and is rarely subject to change. BLS schedules news releases any day the Federal government is scheduled to be open, based on when data will become final. Friday April 2, 2010 9:44 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

9:45	[Comment From Mark MMark M: ]  Why is the civilian non institutional population listed as 237,159? Friday April 2, 2010 9:45 Mark M

9:45	Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Mark: The civilian non institutional population is 237,159,000. The figure excludes persons under the age of 16, members of the Armed Forces, and those in institutions such as prisons. Friday April 2, 2010 9:45 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:48	[Comment From chris chris: ]  Does the payroll data differentiate between part time and full time? If so, what were those splits? Friday April 2, 2010 9:48 chris

9:48	Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear Chris, thanks for your questions.  The payroll data does not differentiate between part- and full-time workers.  The CPS survey does have employment by full- and part-time workers.    Friday April 2, 2010 9:48 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

9:51	[Comment From Ted Ted: ]  How are the adjustments to prior months reports determined? Friday April 2, 2010 9:51 Ted

9:51

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Ted, The CES survey is a voluntary survey, and respondents report employment for their pay period that includes the 12th of the month. BLS first produces estimates with less than full response. We collect data on a continuous basis and update our estimates during the 2 months following initial release. In addition to additional sample, BLS also recalculates seasonal factors using the latest estimates. Once a year, BLS resets its employment level (for March) to an actual count and revises seasonally adjusted estimates back 5 years. The latest of these benchmark update was for March 2009, released on February 5, 2010. Friday April 2, 2010 9:51 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

9:51

[Comment From Ryan Antkowiak Ryan Antkowiak: ]  Does the BLS make available the raw data results of the surveys? Does the BLS provide publicly the formulas that are applied to the raw data in order to arrive at the results that are provided in the monthly labor report? If so, where are these available? Thanks! Friday April 2, 2010 9:51 Ryan Antkowiak

9:51

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear Ryan, Thanks for your questions.  The mission of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is to collect, process, analyze, and disseminate essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor. In order to maintain credibility and trust with our survey respondents, confidentiality protections for our data are essential. Protecting the confidentiality of data is central to accomplishing the BLS mission. When collecting data, the BLS makes a pledge of confidentiality to its respondents. This pledge varies depending on the context of each survey, but the standard BLS confidentiality pledge promises that data collected are used for statistical purposes only. More information can be found on this subject at http://www.bls.gov/bls/confidentiality.htm. Details on the formulas used to calculate CES estimates can be found on the following link: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn1.htm Friday April 2, 2010 9:51 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

9:52

[Comment From Lara R Lara R: ]  The estimates for total part-time workers in Table A-8 and A-9 do not match and actually show the opposite trend—Table A-8 shows the total number of part-time workers increasing over the past three months, while table A-9 shows the number decreasing over this time period. What accounts for these differences? Friday April 2, 2010 9:52 Lara R

9:52

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Lara: The figures in table A-8 exclude people who are absent from work during the entire reference week. Those people are included in estimates in table A-9. Also, the estimates are independently seasonally adjusted.. More information about the concepts used in the survey can be found at: http://stats.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf Friday April 2, 2010 9:52 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:53	[Comment From chris chris: ]  what are the standard errors on the employment number and unemployment rate? Friday April 2, 2010 9:53 chris

9:53

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Chris, At the 90 percent level of confidence, the standard error on the change in CPS employment is about +/- 400,000, and the standard error on the change in the unemployment rate is about +/- 0.2 percentage point. For the payroll survey, at the 90 percent level of confidence, the standard error on the monthly change in nonfarm employment is about +/- 100,000. Friday April 2, 2010 9:53 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

9:54	[Comment From Mark M Mark M: ]  Who do you survey to get the temp employment number -- do you survey the temp companies -- is it more difficult to capture the real number if the industry is highly fragmented with lots of little mom and pops? Friday April 2, 2010 9:54 Mark M

9:54	Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear Mark.  Thanks for your questions.  The CES survey samples Temporary Help companies to estimate employment in Temp Help.  Our sample includes firms of all sizes. Friday April 2, 2010 9:54 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

9:55	[Comment From Stephanie R. Thomas Stephanie R. Thomas: ]  When will the data from the 2010 Displaced Worker Survey supplement be available for download? Friday April 2, 2010 9:55 Stephanie R. Thomas

9:55	Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Stephanie: Those data should be available in the fall of this year. Friday April 2, 2010 9:55 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:56	[Comment From Brian B Brian B: ]  Is BLS working on improvements to the Birth/Death adjustment process? If yes, when can we expect to see implementation? Friday April 2, 2010 9:56 Brian B

9:56

Chris Manning (BLS-CES):  Hi Brian, thanks for your question. BLS continues to research possible improvements to the CES net birth/death model in an effort to better understand the model's limitations and to improve its sensitivity to economic shocks. Improvements to the accuracy of the model may be possible in several areas. For example, CES is investigating the benefit of increasing the frequency with which the model is run. As the model is dependent upon QCEW data (available on a quarterly basis), CES may opt to update the model quarterly in order to incorporate more recent information. Also under investigation is the option of adding independent regression variables to the model to improve its responsiveness to business cycle changes; in particular, sample links derived from CES data are being studied as potential regressors. Several additional years of real time experience with the model are now available and can be used as a basis for additional evaluation and research testing. Any changes would be implemented during the annual benchmark production. Friday April 2, 2010 9:56 Chris Manning (BLS-CES)

9:58	[Comment From Mike Mike: ]  I understand that there are various codes that CES respondents can use to indicate weather or other causes of changes in payrolls. Have you looked at those data in connection with the February weather question? Friday April 2, 2010 9:58 Mike

9:58

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Mike, BLS does indeed receive comments from respondents regarding changes in employment due to weather. Unfortunately, the number of comments is extremely small relative to the sample received, and these comments can't be used to determine weather impacts. We can compare weather comment codes to other months. The number that we received for February 2010 was much lower than other months with major winter weather storms. Friday April 2, 2010 9:58 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

9:59	[Comment From Osman Aziz Osman Aziz: ]  Given the rise in the U-6 alternative unemployment rate of about .4% since January, does BLS believe that this rise is correlated with the increasing default rates observed in re-modified mortgages? Friday April 2, 2010 9:59 Osman Aziz

9:59

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Dear Osman: The increase in the U-6 rate since January largely reflects an increase in the number of persons working part time for economic reasons. We do not know if that is related to the increase in default rates observed in re-modified mortgages. Friday April 2, 2010 9:59 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

9:59	[Comment From Norma Norma: ]  Why is the diffusion index so difficult ti obtain? Friday April 2, 2010 9:59 Norma

9:59

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Hi Normal, Thanks for your question. The diffusion indexes for total private and manufacturing can be found in The Employment Situation, Summary Table B. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf You can also find this data online at: http://data.bls.gov:8080/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=ce Friday April 2, 2010 9:59 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

9:59

[Comment From Madeline Schnapp Madeline Schnapp: ]  Many years ago, I found a breakdown of respondents to the establishment survey by industry sector, eg. government, manufacturing, transportation, etc. I have looked for an updated table and haven't been able to find it. Can you point to the location of this table? Friday April 2, 2010 9:59 Madeline Schnapp

10:00

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear Madeline, thanks for your question.  Information on sample coverage by industry can be found on table 2ca on:  http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestntab.htm Friday April 2, 2010 10:00 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

10:02

[Comment From Bryan Bryan: ]  Is there any explanation or analysis regarding the spike in the unemployment rate among Gulf War Era II veterans. It went from 12.5% to 14.7% from Feb. 2010 to March 2010. Friday April 2, 2010 10:02 Bryan

10:02

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Bryan, The monthly unemployment rates for Gulf War Era ll veterans are not seasonally adjusted, and in general, we discourage over the month comparisions when using unadjusted data. (Seasonal patterns may make it difficult to discern underlying economic patterns.) Also note that the sample size for this group is relatively small, so we must be very cautious when interpreting movements in these figures. Friday April 2, 2010 10:02 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

10:04

[Comment From LJ Sterne LJ Sterne: ]  Are the Census workers included in Government or Temporary? Friday April 2, 2010 10:04 LJ Sterne

10:04

Chris Manning (BLS-CES):  Hi LJ, thanks for your question. Census workers who received pay for any part of the pay period that included the 12th day of the month are included in Other Federal Government (NAICS code 90919999), which is a component of Government. Friday April 2, 2010 10:04 Chris Manning (BLS-CES)

10:06

[Comment From Guest Guest: ]  Why do the data for "employed" in the CPS jump around so much? There was a large decline in December 2009 and then it moved steadily upwards for the first three months of this year. Can we read this as a positive sign for the labor market? Friday April 2, 2010 10:06 Guest

10:06

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  The employment levels from the CPS are more variable from month to month than those from the CES survey because the sample size for the CPS is smaller. Also, there was an adjustment to the population controls used in the CPS which affected the December to January comparison. The employment-population ratio has been trending up over the last few months indicating that a larger share of the population is finding employment. Friday April 2, 2010 10:06 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

10:07

[Comment From James James: ]  Does the BLS breakout employment by size of firm. I have read studies that say large firms have not added jobs since 1980. All growth in jobs have been from medium and small firms in the last 30 years. Do you have data that confirms or disputes this? Friday April 2, 2010 10:07 James

10:07

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear James.  Thanks for your question.  The BLS does breakout employment by size of firm from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.  For more details see:  www.bls.gov/cew Friday April 2, 2010 10:07 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

10:08

[Comment From Brian B Brian B: ]  Are the Birth/Death factors revised and used in the 2nd and 3rd monthly revision process? Friday April 2, 2010 10:08 Brian B

10:08

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Hi Brian B, Thanks for your question. The birth/death factor for a given month does not change between 1st preliminary, 2nd preliminary, and final sample-based estimates. Friday April 2, 2010 10:08 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

10:09

[Comment From Mark Mark: ]  Could the lower CES response rate in February have been a consequence of weather Friday April 2, 2010 10:09 Mark

10:09

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Mark, Response rates are more dependent on the number of days that are available to collect the data. BLS has between 10 and 16 days each month for first estimates. February had only 10 days to collect data for the first release, so with less time to collect the response rate was slightly lower than average (73.3 percent in 2009). Friday April 2, 2010 10:09 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

10:09

[Comment From Ken Ken: ]  Are retired non working persons accounted for in the civilian non institutional population . Friday April 2, 2010 10:09 Ken

10:09

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Ken: Yes, retired non working persons are included in the civilian non institutional population. Friday April 2, 2010 10:09 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

10:10

[Comment From Miss K Miss K: ]  Do you think it's fair that the unemployed who have fallen off the radar, those who have exhausted their 99 weeks, are NOT COUNTED amongst the unemployed because they can no longer certify? How are the numbers valid and accurate if hundreds of thousands this year are uncounted? Friday April 2, 2010 10:10 Miss K

10:10

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Miss K, The Unemployment Insurance (UI) program is completely separate from the survey used for our official unemployment statistics. The receipt of UI has NO bearing on whether a person is classified as unemployed, which is based on a person’s recent jobsearch and availability to work. If you are not working, are available to work, and have actively looked for work in the past 4 weeks you are counted as unemployed in our measures. Friday April 2, 2010 10:10 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

10:12

[Comment From Richard Bolles Richard Bolles: ]  What do we know about the "churn" inbetween the monthly unemployment reports? For example, I read somewhere that for January 2009 while the net unemployment losses were over 700,000, during the month 4.3 million jobs were filled, and 1 million vacancies remained unfilled. Do we have comparable figures for any more recent month? Ben Bernanke spoke about this problem in his June 30, 2004 address at Duke. Friday April 2, 2010 10:12 Richard Bolles

10:12

Emily Liddel:  Richard, You may want to check out the data that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) has.  Here is a link to their web page: http://www.bls.gov/jlt/ Friday April 2, 2010 10:12 Emily Liddel

10:12

[Comment From Tom Lawler Tom Lawler: ]  February's non-farm payroll employment was revised up by 62,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the not seasonally adjusted employment number was revised up by just 4,000. This apparenlty is related to the bizarre practice of revising seasonal factors each month, but only for the previous two months. Why in the world does the BLS do this? Friday April 2, 2010 10:12 Tom Lawler

10:12

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear Tom.  CES estimates are seasonally adjusted using a concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology.  For more details on our research on this method, please see:  http://www.bls.gov/ces/cescsapdf.pdf Friday April 2, 2010 10:12 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

10:15

[Comment From Will Caverly Will Caverly: ]  Given that the unemployment measure is a household survey, how are independent contractors and the self-employed counted? Friday April 2, 2010 10:15 Will Caverly

10:15

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Dear Will: In the household survey, independent contractors and the self employed are counted as employed if they are operating their business. If their businesses are closed and they are actively seeking other employment, they would be considered unemployed. Friday April 2, 2010 10:15 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

10:16

[Comment From Madeline Schnapp Madeline Schnapp: ]  What percentage of respondents to the BLS' Establishment Survey are small, medium, large companies? I understand that the responses are statistically adjusted to represent the small/medium/large makeup of employment in companies, but was curious as to how the actual survey is broken out. Friday April 2, 2010 10:16 Madeline Schnapp

10:16

Chris Manning (BLS-CES):  Hi Madeline, thanks for your question. Table 2-Cc on http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestntab.htm displays total private CES sample employment by size. Friday April 2, 2010 10:16 Chris Manning (BLS-CES)

10:16

[Comment From Madeline Schnapp Madeline Schnapp: ]  Why is March selected as the bench mark month as opposed to other months? Friday April 2, 2010 10:16 Madeline Schnapp

10:16

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Madeline, March is selected for the annual benchmark, because it has less seasonal variation than most months and no holidays. Friday April 2, 2010 10:16 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

10:18

[Comment From Daniel Daniel: ]  Is there a link on your website that gives specificity on your unemployment calculation formulas / methodologies and sources? It would be interesting to know just how these numbers are calculated. Friday April 2, 2010 10:18 Daniel

10:18

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Daniel: You can find a number of documents describing the concepts and methods used in the unemployment calculations at the following link http://stats.bls.gov/cps/documentation.htm#ces_cps Friday April 2, 2010 10:18 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

10:19

[Comment From Ken Ken: ]  How do you know if someone has looked for work in the past 4 weeks. Friday April 2, 2010 10:19 Ken

10:19

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Ken, In the CPS or household survey, specific questions are asked regarding whether one actively looked for work in the past 4 weeks. The survey questions enable us to differentiate between active and passive jobsearch. Only those engaged in active jobsearch--that is, activities that could potentially result in a job offer--are included among the unemployed. Friday April 2, 2010 10:19 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

10:20

[Comment From Ryan Antkowiak Ryan Antkowiak: ]  What are some of the common reasons why the numbers in a prior months' report could be revised? Is it simply a matter of receiving additional survey results a bit later? Thank you Friday April 2, 2010 10:20 Ryan Antkowiak

10:20

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Ryan, CES estimates may revise from additional sample received, corrections to previously reported data, and recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors using the most current data. Friday April 2, 2010 10:20 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

10:21

[Comment From ten40 ten40: ]  What non-service sector industries, not energy-related, are recovering from the recession? Also what industries are showing near 0 employment since the recession? Friday April 2, 2010 10:21 ten40

10:21

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Dear ten40.  Thanks for your questions.  Over the last 3 months, manufacturing has added 45,000 jobs, with most of the gains in durable goods industries.  Manufacturing had seen broad-based job losses among the component industries since before the start of the recession.  However, in the past 2 months more industries have shown employment gains than employment losses.  Construction employment held steady in March.  This industry had shed an average of 72,000 jobs per month in the prior 12 months.  For more industry analysis, please see:  http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf Friday April 2, 2010 10:21 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

10:21

[Comment From Finnman Finnman: ]  Is this data available by "U.S. states", I mean "Employment status of the civilian population by U.S. states"? I would like to compare different areas in United States Friday April 2, 2010 10:21 Finnman

10:21

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Finnman: BLS publishes a monthly news release on employment and unemployment developments in states. It can be found on the website at: http://stats.bls.gov/lau/#news Friday April 2, 2010 10:21 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

10:22

[Comment From Madeline Schnapp Madeline Schnapp: ]  These are all GREAT questions and answers. In a thousand years, I could never have found some of the tables/documentation you are referring to in your answers. Thanks again!!! Friday April 2, 2010 10:22 Madeline Schnapp

10:22

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):  Thanks Madeline!  Friday April 2, 2010 10:22 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES)

10:27

[Comment From Jason Ross Jason Ross: ]  Do you have data regarding individuals working beyond the age of retirement? Friday April 2, 2010 10:27 Jason Ross

10:27

Emily Liddel:  Jason, You might be interested to see a recent piece that Emy Sok published on older workers http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/summary_10_04/older_workers.htm Friday April 2, 2010 10:27 Emily Liddel

10:27

[Comment From Chuck Young Chuck Young: ]  When the BLS issues revisions to prior months, is that a result of additional data that reflects the birth/death adjustment was originally incorrect? How is the birth/death model adjusted for current economic "conditions", or is it simply an assumption based on cyclical trends ? Friday April 2, 2010 10:27 Chuck Young

10:27

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):  Hi Chuck Young, Thanks for your question. Historical QCEW data are the inputs for the CES birth/death figures. Research has shown that net contribution of births and deaths is relatively small and stable, regardless of the business cycle. Birth/death numbers are revised once a year with the benchmark revision.  There are two reasons that the birth/death values change with the update.  First, each year another 12 months of data are added to the historical series used in fitting the models.  As a result of the additional data, the models provide updated results.  Secondly, in general the amount of birth/death required is of a larger magnitude the further the reference month is from the benchmark.  As a result one model is used to provide birth/death values for the first 12 reference months after the benchmark month, and the second model is used for providing birth/death values for 13 to 21 months from the benchmark.  As an example, the first preliminary estimate for June 2003 was produced on the March 2002 Benchmark using a second year model.  When the March 2003 Benchmark was implemented, the June 2003 birth/death factor came from a first year model. Friday April 2, 2010 10:27 Michele Walker (BLS-CES)

10:27

Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS):  Submitted via email by Will:  The commonly cited unemployment rate for the Great Depression is %25 - one quarter of people out of work. After doing some research of my own, there was not an "official" measure of unemployment during that period, and instead the rate had to be calculated using Census data. Was there any measure of discouraged workers during that time period? How would we measure Great Depression unemployment today? You're right…unemployment figures generally were not available during the 1930s.  The source for the official unemployment statistics for the nation, the Current Population Survey, was not introduced until 1940.  Unemployment estimates for the 1930s were backcast using available data sources for the era and approximate what the rate would have been had current concepts and methods been used.  To the best of my knowledge, nobody has put together a data series on discouraged workers for the 1930s. Friday April 2, 2010 10:27 Steve Haugen (BLS-CPS)

10:28

[Comment From Miss K Miss K: ]  What do you count as activities that could potentially result in a job offer? Thank you for your response! Friday April 2, 2010 10:28 Miss K

10:28

Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS):  Miss K: Active job search would include activities such as attending job interviews, contacting employers, submitting resumes, contacting private or public employment agencies, or asking friends or family who might have knowledge about employment opportunities. Friday April 2, 2010 10:28 Tom Nardone (BLS-CPS)

10:29

[Comment From Mike Mike: ]  Are you utilizing the quarterly ES-202 results for months other than March in doing your annual benchmark interpolations? Friday April 2, 2010 10:29 Mike

10:29

Chris Manning (BLS-CES):  Hi Mike, thanks for your question. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts only for March. Not-seasonally adjusted monthly estimates for the year preceding the March benchmark are readjusted using a "wedge back" procedure. The difference between the final benchmark level and the previously published March sample estimate is calculated and spread back across the previous 11 months. Friday April 2, 2010 10:29 Chris Manning (BLS-CES)

10:29

[Comment From Xavier Vila Xavier Vila: ]  During other census the government hired many more people than the 48 thousand reported today. Is there a reason that you are aware about why this time the figure is so low? Thanks. Friday April 2, 2010 10:29 Xavier Vila

10:29

Angie Clinton (BLS-CES):  Employment data are reported for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. There can be differences in timing of pay periods and changes in productivity that may explain differences from prior decenniel censuses. The Census Bureau may be able to provide more information of differences in their hiring practices. See: www.census.gov Friday April 2, 2010 10:29 Angie Clinton (BLS-CES)

10:30

Emily Liddel:  Well, we’ve run out of time.  We've certainly enjoyed chatting with you today.  Thank you for all your great questions!  If we didn’t get to your question, please feel free to contact us, and we will be sure to get back to you. Household data (CPS):   Email  | Phone: [phone] Establishment data (CES):  Email | Phone: [phone]

Comments

[williambanzai7]

Do they have some kind of web counter that clicks everytime someone emails a resume?

[hedgeless_horseman]

That's saved or created, not created.  See the difference, dumbass?

[Assetman]

For some moronic reason, I had pictures of a smiling Christina Romer dancing in my head during the whole chat session.

I feel a little dirty.

[free_as_in_beer]

Was Lazear playing the music she was dancing to?

[Assetman]

Yep.  With a kazoo, no less.

[Pelosis Usless Brain]

A question from the 10:12 mark and the non-answwer. After reading the full transcript I have even less confidence in the BLS (and entire gov't) data than ever...if that's possible.

[Comment From Tom Lawler Tom Lawler: ] 

February's non-farm payroll employment was revised up by 62,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the not seasonally adjusted employment number was revised up by just 4,000. This apparenlty is related to the bizarre practice of revising seasonal factors each month, but only for the previous two months. Why in the world does the BLS do this?
Friday April 2, 2010 10:12 Tom Lawler

10:12 Laura Kelter (BLS-CES): 

Dear Tom.  CES estimates are seasonally adjusted using a concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology.  For more details on our research on this method, please see:  http://www.bls.gov/ces/cescsapdf.pdf

[BlackBeard]

Stupid in, stupid out.

[CitizenPete]

Dear BLS:

Using the information available from other sources such as Mr. John William's "ShadowStats.com" service, we can see that unemployment (as previous measured before the Clinton era) actually peaked around 22% and appears to be moving flat.

The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLSestimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

These numbers do not account the unemployed in groups that one might call "the underground economy or unreported/documented workers" -- working under the table, including: babysitting teenagers, part-time laborers, landscapers, farmhands, etc... (so let's consider that category a wash, because they were never counted?).

My question is this:  If the "Great Depression" had an estimated 25% unemployed, and we currently have 22% actual unemployed (combined with negative GDP growth) couldn't one surmise that we are economically worse off in this current Greater Depression and that long term unemployment (U6) will continue to increase dramatically?

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